1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. UND @ WIN
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Winthrop Eagles

Winthrop Coliseum · at Winthrop
#336UNDNorth Dakota
@
#205WINWinthrop
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNDThis seasonWIN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WIN 83–72 · win probability WIN 82%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WIN has more of the edges

UND 1, WIN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WINBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UND 27.4%, WIN 34.1%. Defensive: UND 67.6%, WIN 72.3%
WINBig
WIN offense vs UND defense
Offense 135th of 366 against a defense 353rd, on the model’s ratings
WINBig
Three-pointers
UND hits 32.7% and allows 37.1%; WIN hits 33.2% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 40.6% and 44.1% of their shots
WINSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UND 49.5 and allows 56.5; WIN 49.7 and allows 51.5
Context
Schedule so far
UND has played the 293rd-hardest schedule, WIN the 206th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNDSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UND 14.1%, WIN 14.7%. Forced: UND 19.3%, WIN 16.6%
WINSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UND 37.9, WIN 44.0. Allowed: UND 43.8, WIN 39.0
WINSmall
Home court
WIN at home. This season: WIN 0-0 at home, UND 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: UND plays 69.7 a game (133rd fastest), WIN 72.0 (35th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UND 24%, WIN 13%. Transfers in: UND 2, WIN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
UND offense vs WIN defense
Offense 304th of 366 against a defense 298th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WIN -10.7—
Total—155.5—
Projected score—UND 72.4 · WIN 83.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWIN -6.2—
1H total72.7—
1H projected scoreUND 33.2 · WIN 39.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Winthrop has the better starters

Position by position: North Dakota 0, Winthrop 2, even 3
North DakotaBetterWinthrop
G Z. Kraft7.7 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23
Even
G M. Davis TR9.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 12
G S. Hincapie TR4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
WINSmall
G S. Sims TR9.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30
G T. Wagner TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G A. Smith TR7.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 60
F K. Ouse0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G S. Hendawy5.2 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast Score 30
C J. Jones2.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 1
WINBig
F G. Natsvlishvili TR7.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 1 ast Score 43
North DakotaBetterWinthrop
UND offense304th of 366 · -9.5
Even
WIN defense298th of 366 · -7.6
UND defense353rd of 366 · -9.9
WINBig
WIN offense135th of 366 · -3.9
Backcourt-4.8 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-5.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt-4.5 · 2 players
WINBig
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.7 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUND betterWIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Dakota
Guards
Z. Kraft25 minS. Hincapie16 min · TRT. Wagner7 min · TRL. WinkelNewZ. ParksNewJ. MooreNew
Forwards
K. Ouse6 minA. RadojevicNewJ. ThomasNewD. ElyNew
Centers
J. Jones19 min
Winthrop
Guards
M. Davis26 min · TRS. Sims25 min · TRA. Smith18 min · TRS. Hendawy16 minK. Fisher11 min · TRH. Harrison2 min
Forwards
G. Natsvlishvili20 min · TRT. Hamilton7 minT. HarrisNewJ. CwikNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNDWIN
Scoring
74.2 #187Points per game81.5 #40
1.07 #214Points per possession1.13 #79
69.7 #133Pace (possessions)72.0 #35
Shooting
49.5 #272Effective FG%49.7 #250
32.7 #2463-point %33.2 #217
40.6 #1553-point attempt rate44.1 #88
37.9 #106Free throw rate44.0 #10
Possessions
14.1 #27Turnover rate14.7 #52
27.4 #284Offensive rebound rate34.1 #63
10.8 #343Assists per game13.6 #177
Defense
79.6 #310Points allowed77.7 #261
1.14 #306Points allowed per possession1.08 #154
56.5 #353Opponent effective FG%51.5 #182
37.1 #345Opponent 3-point %32.9 #113
19.3 #36Turnovers forced16.6 #174
67.6 #276Defensive rebound rate72.3 #55
7.9 #49Steals per game6.6 #161
2.5 #307Blocks per game2.7 #281
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Dakota

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Dakota St62–70
  • Wvs St Thomas67–66
  • Wvs Denver83–67
  • L@ N Dakota St63–96
  • L@ S Dakota St83–91

A week or more of rest.

Winthrop

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point76–91
  • Wvs Presbyterian73–71
  • Wvs Charleston So86–81
  • Wvs Presbyterian74–70
  • L@ Charleston So84–86

A week or more of rest.