1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. NCAT @ OHIO
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

North Carolina A&T Aggies at Ohio Bobcats

Convocation Center (OH) · at Ohio
#275NCATNC A&T
@
#128OHIOOhio
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NCATThis seasonOHIO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OHIO 86–74 · win probability OHIO 85%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 159.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OHIO has more of the edges

NCAT 2, OHIO 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
OHIOBig
OHIO offense vs NCAT defense
Offense 81st of 366 against a defense 311th, on the model’s ratings
OHIOBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NCAT 18.6%, OHIO 15.4%. Forced: NCAT 14.1%, OHIO 16.2%
NCATBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NCAT 31.7%, OHIO 28.4%. Defensive: NCAT 71.4%, OHIO 67.2%
Context
Schedule so far
NCAT has played the 238th-hardest schedule, OHIO the 162nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
NCATSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NCAT 42.3, OHIO 36.9. Allowed: NCAT 37.5, OHIO 38.2
OHIOSmall
Home court
OHIO at home. This season: OHIO 0-0 at home, NCAT 0-0 away
OHIOSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NCAT 16%, OHIO 41%. Transfers in: NCAT 2, OHIO 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: NCAT plays 69.4 a game (150th fastest), OHIO 71.0 (78th). Faster games mean more points
Even
NCAT offense vs OHIO defense
Offense 234th of 366 against a defense 260th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
NCAT hits 31.6% and allows 36.6%; OHIO hits 30.1% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 32.6% and 38.1% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NCAT 50.7 and allows 52.9; OHIO 51.0 and allows 53.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—OHIO -11.7—
Total—159.5—
Projected score—NCAT 73.9 · OHIO 85.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOHIO -6.8—
1H total74.5—
1H projected scoreNCAT 33.8 · OHIO 40.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Ohio has the better starters

Position by position: NC A&T 0, Ohio 4, even 1
NC A&TBetterOhio
G P. James TR13.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.1 ast Score 66
OHIOSmall
G J. Paveletzke17.8 pts · 3 reb · 5.1 ast Score 89
G S. Lancaster TR10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 50
OHIOSmall
G K. D'Augustino TR19.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 79
G M. Burton5.2 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13
OHIOBig
G K. Mitchell TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 76
F M. Webster NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G J. Burris3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Score 11
C W. Felton6.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 65
OHIOSmall
F J. Simmons15.4 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
NC A&TBetterOhio
NCAT offense234th of 366 · -7.2
Even
OHIO defense260th of 366 · -6.7
NCAT defense311th of 366 · -8.1
OHIOBig
OHIO offense81st of 366 · +0.5
Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players
OHIOBig
Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.8 · 2 players
OHIOSmall
Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.4 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestNCAT betterOHIO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
NC A&T
Guards
P. James33 min · TRS. Lancaster29 min · TRM. Burton17 minJ. McKieNewU. Kellman-NicholesNewB. IveryNew
Forwards
M. WebsterNewS. SimleyNew
Centers
W. Felton16 minE. KalliontzisNew
Ohio
Guards
J. Paveletzke37 minK. D'Augustino33 min · TRK. Mitchell31 min · TRJ. Burris10 minC. ReeseNewS. LedegenNew
Forwards
J. Simmons28 minK. Kuany8 minZ. MosleyNewC. TrudicNewJ. BowensNewD. MakitanNew
Centers
M. IckeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NCATOHIO
Scoring
73.9 #205Points per game76.7 #126
1.07 #213Points per possession1.08 #194
69.4 #150Pace (possessions)71.0 #78
Shooting
50.7 #201Effective FG%51.0 #197
31.6 #3043-point %30.1 #341
32.6 #3223-point attempt rate38.1 #211
42.3 #26Free throw rate36.9 #132
Possessions
18.6 #304Turnover rate15.4 #97
31.7 #136Offensive rebound rate28.4 #248
11.5 #311Assists per game12.6 #242
Defense
78.5 #278Points allowed80.0 #319
1.13 #285Points allowed per possession1.13 #295
52.9 #266Opponent effective FG%53.0 #269
36.6 #331Opponent 3-point %36.8 #340
14.1 #332Turnovers forced16.2 #213
71.4 #89Defensive rebound rate67.2 #289
5.1 #323Steals per game5.7 #267
3.8 #107Blocks per game3.4 #163
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC A&T

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northeastern72–88
  • L@ Campbell72–90
  • Lvs William & Mary88–91
  • L@ UNC Wilmington65–88
  • W@ Elon102–82

A week or more of rest.

Ohio

13-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kent State75–86
  • Lvs Miami OH108–110
  • L@ UMass82–94
  • Lvs Toledo67–79
  • W@ N Illinois74–66

A week or more of rest.