Ohio Bobcats at Purdue Boilermakers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ETMackey Arena · at Purdue

#128OHIOOhio

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Ohio and Purdue
OHIO	This season	PUR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PUR 88–68 · win probability PUR 96%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PUR has more of the edges

OHIO 0, PUR 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PURBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OHIO 28.4%, PUR 36.4%. Defensive: OHIO 67.2%, PUR 72.9%

PURBig

Three-pointers

OHIO hits 30.1% and allows 36.8%; PUR hits 38.3% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 38.1% and 40.2% of their shots

PURBig

PUR offense vs OHIO defense

Offense 38th of 366 against a defense 260th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

OHIO has played the 162nd-hardest schedule, PUR the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: OHIO plays 71.0 a game (78th fastest), PUR 65.4 (333rd). Faster games mean more points

PURBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: OHIO 51.0 and allows 53.0; PUR 57.6 and allows 52.4

PURSmall

OHIO offense vs PUR defense

Offense 81st of 366 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

PURSmall

Home court

PUR at home. This season: PUR 0-0 at home, OHIO 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: OHIO 36.9, PUR 28.6. Allowed: OHIO 38.2, PUR 25.5

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OHIO 15.4%, PUR 13.7%. Forced: OHIO 16.2%, PUR 15.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OHIO 41%, PUR 43%. Transfers in: OHIO 2, PUR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PUR -19.8	—
Total	—	156.7	—
Projected score	—	OHIO 68.4 · PUR 88.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PUR -11.7	—
1H total	73.2	—
1H projected score	OHIO 30.8 · PUR 42.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO WLLWL	12-18	40%	4-8	—
PUR WWWLL	17-22	44%	5-12	—

Venue/role: OHIO away; PUR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO UUOOU	15-15	50%	13-17
PUR OOOOU	20-19	51%	30-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
PUR	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Ohio

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs MORE	W88–76LO
Nov 24	vs NMSU	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs RICE	W65–64LU

Purdue

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs LIP	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs OAK	W87–77LO
Nov 24	vs DEP	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Ohio

30 games played

Straight up

13-17

43% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1743%

L W L L L L L W W W L W W W W L L W L L W W L L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

L W L W L L L W W W L W L L W L L L L L W W L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U O O U O U U O O U U U O O O U O U U O O U O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARST	L 85-89	-3.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 174
Nov 6	vsILST	W 72-68	-1.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 11	@SMC	L 60-90	+17.5	L −12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 15	@LOU	L 81-106	+31.5	W +6.5	174.5	O 187
Nov 19	vsBCU	L 73-76	-6.5	L −9.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsGMU	L 69-92	+7.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 161
Nov 25	vsLMU	L 58-70	+3.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 128
Dec 3	vsME	W 79-57	-12.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 136
Dec 6	vsMRSH	W 88-81	-3.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsSBU	W 88-83	+6.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 171
Dec 20	vsBGSU	L 58-68	+1.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 126
Dec 30	@CMU	W 80-64	-6.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 3	@EMU	W 68-67	-2.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 6	vsMASS	W 86-83	-4.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsBUF	W 91-80	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	O 171
Jan 13	@TOL	L 85-101	+2.5	L −13.5	161.5	O 186
Jan 16	@BALL	L 71-76	-5.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 147
Jan 20	vsNIU	W 80-77	-11.5	L −8.5	154.5	O 157
Jan 23	vsAKR	L 65-86	+6.5	L −14.5	167.5	U 151
Jan 27	@KENT	L 57-72	+5.5	L −9.5	162.5	U 129
Jan 31	@BUF	W 95-83	+2.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 178
Feb 3	vsWMU	W 91-71	-10.5	W +9.5	155.5	O 162
Feb 7	@ODU	L 72-78	-3.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 13	@M-OH	L 74-90	+7.5	L −8.5	163.5	O 164
Feb 17	vsBALL	W 69-57	-9.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 126
Feb 21	@NIU	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 28	vsTOL	L 67-79	-1.5	L −13.5	158.5	U 146
Mar 3	@MASS	L 82-94	+1.5	L −10.5	156.5	O 176
Mar 6	vsM-OH	L 108-110	+3.5	W +1.5	159.5	O 218
Mar 12	vsKENT	L 75-86	+3.5	L −7.5	161.5	U 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

L 85-89

−7.5

ILST

W 72-68

+2.5

SMC

L 60-90

−12.5

LOU

L 81-106

+6.5

BCU

L 73-76

−9.5

GMU

L 69-92

−15.5

LMU

L 58-70

−8.5

W 79-57

+9.5

MRSH

W 88-81

+3.5

SBU

W 88-83

+11.5

BGSU

L 58-68

−8.5

CMU

W 80-64

+9.5

EMU

W 68-67

−1.5

MASS

W 86-83

−1.5

BUF

W 91-80

+6.5

TOL

L 85-101

−13.5

BALL

L 71-76

−10.5

NIU

W 80-77

−8.5

AKR

L 65-86

−14.5

KENT

L 57-72

−9.5

BUF

W 95-83

+14.5

WMU

W 91-71

+9.5

ODU

L 72-78

−9.5

M-OH

L 74-90

−8.5

BALL

W 69-57

+2.5

NIU

W 74-66

+1.5

TOL

L 67-79

−13.5

MASS

L 82-94

−10.5

M-OH

L 108-110

+1.5

KENT

L 75-86

−7.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

L 85-89

+14.5

ILST

W 72-68

−21.5

SMC

L 60-90

+5.5

LOU

L 81-106

+12.5

BCU

L 73-76

−8.5

GMU

L 69-92

+18.5

LMU

L 58-70

−16.5

W 79-57

−2.5

MRSH

W 88-81

+11.5

SBU

W 88-83

+20.5

BGSU

L 58-68

−27.5

CMU

W 80-64

−7.5

EMU

W 68-67

−15.5

MASS

W 86-83

+8.5

BUF

W 91-80

+14.5

TOL

L 85-101

+24.5

BALL

L 71-76

−0.5

NIU

W 80-77

+2.5

AKR

L 65-86

−16.5

KENT

L 57-72

−33.5

BUF

W 95-83

+21.5

WMU

W 91-71

+6.5

ODU

L 72-78

−6.5

M-OH

L 74-90

+0.5

BALL

W 69-57

−19.5

NIU

W 74-66

−8.5

TOL

L 67-79

−12.5

MASS

L 82-94

+19.5

M-OH

L 108-110

+58.5

KENT

L 75-86

−0.5

over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Purdue

39 games played

Straight up

30-9

77% wins

Against the spread

17-22

44% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-19

51% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-977%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L L L W W W W L W L L W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2244%

L L W L L W W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L W W L W L L L L L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1951%

U O U O U U O U U U U U O O U O O U U O U O U O U O O O O U O O U U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEVAN	W 82-51	-33.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsOAK	W 87-77	-31.5	L −21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 13	@ALA	W 87-80	+3.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 16	vsAKR	W 97-79	-18.5	L −0.5	163.5	O 176
Nov 20	vsMEM	W 80-71	-14.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 21	vsTTU	W 86-56	-3.5	W +26.5	153.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsEIU	W 109-62	-40.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 171
Dec 2	@RUTG	W 81-65	-13.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 6	vsISU	L 58-81	-4.5	L −27.5	154.5	U 139
Dec 10	vsMINN	W 85-57	-19.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsMARQ	W 79-59	-16.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 138
Dec 20	vsAUB	W 88-60	-7.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 29	vsKENT	W 101-60	-24.5	W +16.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 3	@WIS	W 89-73	-5.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 7	vsWASH	W 81-73	-16.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 10	vsPSU	W 93-85	-22.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 178
Jan 14	vsIOWA	W 79-72	-10.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 151
Jan 17	@USC	W 69-64	-9.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 133
Jan 20	@UCLA	L 67-69	-5.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 24	vsILL	L 82-88	-5.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 27	@IU	L 67-72	-4.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 139
Feb 1	@MD	W 93-63	-15.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 7	vsORE	W 68-64	-19.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 132
Feb 10	@NEB	W 80-77	+2.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 14	@IOWA	W 78-57	-2.5	W +18.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 17	vsMICH	L 80-91	+2.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 171
Feb 20	vsIU	W 93-64	-11.5	W +17.5	150.5	O 157
Feb 26	vsMSU	L 74-76	-5.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 150
Mar 1	@OSU	L 74-82	-6.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 156
Mar 4	@NU	W 70-66	-12.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 136
Mar 7	vsWIS	L 93-97	-9.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 190
Mar 12	vsNU	W 81-68	-13.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 149
Mar 13	vsNEB	W 74-58	-4.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 132
Mar 14	vsUCLA	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 15	vsMICH	W 80-72	+4.5	W +12.5	149.5	O 152
Mar 20	vsQUC	W 104-71	-25.5	W +7.5	159.5	O 175
Mar 22	vsMIA	W 79-69	-8.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 148
Mar 26	vsTEX	W 79-77	-8.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 156
Mar 28	vsARIZ	L 64-79	+5.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−2.5

OAK

W 87-77

−21.5

ALA

W 87-80

+10.5

AKR

W 97-79

−0.5

MEM

W 80-71

−5.5

TTU

W 86-56

+26.5

EIU

W 109-62

+6.5

RUTG

W 81-65

+2.5

ISU

L 58-81

−27.5

MINN

W 85-57

+8.5

MARQ

W 79-59

+3.5

AUB

W 88-60

+20.5

KENT

W 101-60

+16.5

WIS

W 89-73

+10.5

WASH

W 81-73

−8.5

PSU

W 93-85

−14.5

IOWA

W 79-72

−3.5

USC

W 69-64

−4.5

UCLA

L 67-69

−7.5

ILL

L 82-88

−11.5

L 67-72

−9.5

W 93-63

+14.5

ORE

W 68-64

−15.5

NEB

W 80-77

+5.5

IOWA

W 78-57

+18.5

MICH

L 80-91

−8.5

W 93-64

+17.5

MSU

L 74-76

−7.5

OSU

L 74-82

−14.5

W 70-66

−8.5

WIS

L 93-97

−13.5

W 81-68

−0.5

NEB

W 74-58

+11.5

UCLA

W 73-66

−0.5

MICH

W 80-72

+12.5

QUC

W 104-71

+7.5

MIA

W 79-69

+1.5

TEX

W 79-77

−6.5

ARIZ

L 64-79

−9.5

covered 17didn’t cover 22avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−17.5

OAK

W 87-77

+5.5

ALA

W 87-80

−5.5

AKR

W 97-79

+12.5

MEM

W 80-71

−5.5

TTU

W 86-56

−11.5

EIU

W 109-62

+29.5

RUTG

W 81-65

−0.5

ISU

L 58-81

−15.5

MINN

W 85-57

−1.5

MARQ

W 79-59

−16.5

AUB

W 88-60

−4.5

KENT

W 101-60

+5.5

WIS

W 89-73

+8.5

WASH

W 81-73

−0.5

PSU

W 93-85

+25.5

IOWA

W 79-72

+5.5

USC

W 69-64

−22.5

UCLA

L 67-69

−11.5

ILL

L 82-88

+17.5

L 67-72

−11.5

W 93-63

+7.5

ORE

W 68-64

−12.5

NEB

W 80-77

+10.5

IOWA

W 78-57

−7.5

MICH

L 80-91

+14.5

W 93-64

+6.5

MSU

L 74-76

+6.5

OSU

L 74-82

+6.5

W 70-66

−9.5

WIS

L 93-97

+35.5

W 81-68

+9.5

NEB

W 74-58

−13.5

UCLA

W 73-66

−4.5

MICH

W 80-72

+2.5

QUC

W 104-71

+15.5

MIA

W 79-69

+1.5

TEX

W 79-77

+9.5

ARIZ

L 64-79

−9.5

over 20under 19avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Purdue has the better starters

Position by position: Ohio 0, Purdue 1, even 4

OhioBetterPurdue

G J. Paveletzke17.8 pts · 3 reb · 5.1 ast Score 89

Even

G C. Cox8.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82

G K. D'Augustino TR19.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 79

Even

G G. Harris4.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75

G K. Mitchell TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 76

Even

G J. Benter4.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75

G J. Burris3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Score 11

PURBig

G O. Mayer5.5 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64

F J. Simmons15.4 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90

Even

C D. Jacobsen5.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 88

OhioBetterPurdue

OHIO offense81st of 366 · +0.5

PURSmall

PUR defense18th of 366 · +6.0

OHIO defense260th of 366 · -6.7

PURBig

PUR offense38th of 366 · +5.0

Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players

OHIOSmall

Backcourt+2.4 · 4 players

Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player

OHIOSmall

Frontcourt+1.8 · 1 player

Bench-0.4 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestOHIO betterPUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Ohio

Guards

J. Paveletzke37 minK. D'Augustino33 min · TRK. Mitchell31 min · TRJ. Burris10 minC. ReeseNewS. LedegenNew

Forwards

J. Simmons28 minK. Kuany8 minZ. MosleyNewC. TrudicNewJ. BowensNewD. MakitanNew

Centers

M. IckeNew

Purdue

Guards

C. Cox24 minG. Harris16 minJ. Benter15 minO. Mayer14 minJ. Rayl2 minJ. Lusk2 min

Forwards

S. KingNewC. PierceNewE. ShahrvinNewR. BurgessNewR. KnightNew

Centers

D. Jacobsen13 minS. HuanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OHIO76.7 #126

PUR81.6 #35

Points per possession

OHIO1.08 #194

PUR1.25 #2

Pace (possessions)

OHIO71.0 #78

PUR65.4 #333

Shooting

Effective FG%

OHIO51.0 #197

PUR57.6 #10

3-point %

OHIO30.1 #341

PUR38.3 #11

3-point attempt rate

OHIO38.1 #211

PUR40.2 #164

Free throw rate

OHIO36.9 #132

PUR28.6 #336

Possessions

Turnover rate

OHIO15.4 #97

PUR13.7 #16

Offensive rebound rate

OHIO28.4 #248

PUR36.4 #19

Assists per game

OHIO12.6 #242

PUR19.6 #2

Defense

Points allowed

OHIO80.0 #319

PUR70.5 #65

Points allowed per possession

OHIO1.13 #295

PUR1.08 #162

Opponent effective FG%

OHIO53.0 #269

PUR52.4 #232

Opponent 3-point %

OHIO36.8 #340

PUR34.1 #192

Turnovers forced

OHIO16.2 #213

PUR15.3 #263

Defensive rebound rate

OHIO67.2 #289

PUR72.9 #39

Steals per game

OHIO5.7 #267

PUR5.5 #297

Blocks per game

OHIO3.4 #163

PUR2.8 #257

OHIO		PUR
Scoring
76.7 #126	Points per game	81.6 #35
1.08 #194	Points per possession	1.25 #2
71.0 #78	Pace (possessions)	65.4 #333
Shooting
51.0 #197	Effective FG%	57.6 #10
30.1 #341	3-point %	38.3 #11
38.1 #211	3-point attempt rate	40.2 #164
36.9 #132	Free throw rate	28.6 #336
Possessions
15.4 #97	Turnover rate	13.7 #16
28.4 #248	Offensive rebound rate	36.4 #19
12.6 #242	Assists per game	19.6 #2
Defense
80.0 #319	Points allowed	70.5 #65
1.13 #295	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #162
53.0 #269	Opponent effective FG%	52.4 #232
36.8 #340	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #192
16.2 #213	Turnovers forced	15.3 #263
67.2 #289	Defensive rebound rate	72.9 #39
5.7 #267	Steals per game	5.5 #297
3.4 #163	Blocks per game	2.8 #257

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Ohio

13-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kent State75–86
Lvs Miami OH108–110
L@ UMass82–94
Lvs Toledo67–79
W@ N Illinois74–66

A week or more of rest.

Purdue

30-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arizona64–79
Wvs Texas79–77
Wvs Miami79–69
Wvs Queens University Royals104–71
Wvs Michigan80–72

A week or more of rest.

Ohio Bobcats at Purdue Boilermakers

What could decide it: PUR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Ohio

Purdue

Purdue has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Ohio

Purdue