1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. WRST @ SAM
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Wright State Raiders at Samford Bulldogs

Pete Hanna Center · at Samford
#180WRSTWright St
@
#184SAMSamford
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WRSTThis seasonSAM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SAM 77–75 · win probability SAM 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

WRST 3, SAM 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WRSTSmall
Three-pointers
WRST hits 36.4% and allows 34.3%; SAM hits 35.6% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 34.2% and 45.7% of their shots
WRSTSmall
WRST offense vs SAM defense
Offense 148th of 366 against a defense 224th, on the model’s ratings
SAMSmall
SAM offense vs WRST defense
Offense 147th of 366 against a defense 215th, on the model’s ratings
WRSTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WRST 32.8%, SAM 25.3%. Defensive: WRST 70.6%, SAM 74.3%
SAMSmall
Home court
SAM at home. This season: SAM 0-0 at home, WRST 0-0 away
SAMSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: WRST 37.4, SAM 41.9. Allowed: WRST 33.3, SAM 32.9
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WRST 16.1%, SAM 13.4%. Forced: WRST 16.6%, SAM 13.0%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WRST 32%, SAM 41%. Transfers in: WRST 4, SAM 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
WRST has played the 264th-hardest schedule, SAM the 251st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: WRST 54.3 and allows 52.4; SAM 53.1 and allows 51.9
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: WRST plays 69.1 a game (171st fastest), SAM 69.3 (163rd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SAM -1.6—
Total—151.9—
Projected score—WRST 75.2 · SAM 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSAM -0.8—
1H total71.0—
1H projected scoreWRST 35.1 · SAM 35.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Wright St has the better starters

Position by position: Wright St 3, Samford 1, even 1
Wright StBetterSamford
G C. O'Hara TR14.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 66
WRSTBig
G N. George TR11.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 25
G D. Pangonis8.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30
Even
G C. Norris8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2 ast Score 34
G C. Traylor TR3.8 pts · 1.1 reb · 2 ast Score 21
SAMBig
G C. Noard TR19 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 94
G A. Holden5.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 78
WRSTBig
G I. Campbell-Finch7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13
F K. Pickett8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 67
WRSTBig
G T. Davis TR1.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 22
Wright StBetterSamford
WRST offense148th of 366 · -4.5
WRSTSmall
SAM defense224th of 366 · -5.9
WRST defense215th of 366 · -5.6
SAMSmall
SAM offense147th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt-2.5 · 4 players
WRSTSmall
Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players
Frontcourt+0.6 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
WRSTSmall
Bench-3.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWRST betterSAM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Wright St
Guards
C. O'Hara33 min · TRD. Pangonis27 minC. Traylor17 min · TRA. Holden14 minI. Milijasevic8 min · TRP. DouglasNew
Forwards
K. Pickett23 minS. JohnsonNewN. LewisNew
Centers
N. Djapa10 min · TR
Samford
Guards
N. George35 min · TRC. Norris31 minC. Noard29 min · TRI. Campbell-Finch24 minT. Davis11 min · TRW. Miller9 min · TR
Forwards
J. Bjornstad8 minB. MacVicar7 min · TRC. Harrison3 minJ. HughesNewB. KempNew
Centers
W. Shaver9 minL. LeeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WRSTSAM
Scoring
79.8 #72Points per game77.8 #98
1.16 #54Points per possession1.12 #99
69.1 #171Pace (possessions)69.3 #163
Shooting
54.3 #56Effective FG%53.1 #101
36.4 #443-point %35.6 #84
34.2 #2903-point attempt rate45.7 #54
37.4 #120Free throw rate41.9 #32
Possessions
16.1 #149Turnover rate13.4 #11
32.8 #91Offensive rebound rate25.3 #333
13.2 #199Assists per game14.3 #128
Defense
75.6 #206Points allowed77.0 #240
1.09 #201Points allowed per possession1.11 #251
52.4 #238Opponent effective FG%51.9 #206
34.3 #203Opponent 3-point %36.5 #326
16.6 #179Turnovers forced13.0 #354
70.6 #129Defensive rebound rate74.3 #17
7.1 #114Steals per game4.4 #358
4.4 #47Blocks per game2.7 #277
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wright St

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Virginia73–82
  • Wvs Detroit Mercy66–63
  • Wvs N Kentucky103–90
  • Wvs Cleveland St90–61
  • W@ N Kentucky92–91

A week or more of rest.

Samford

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman81–86
  • Wvs UNC Greensboro87–78
  • Wvs VMI80–61
  • L@ Mercer86–89
  • W@ The Citadel78–75

A week or more of rest.