1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. TOL @ MRSH
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Toledo Rockets at Marshall Thundering Herd

Cam Henderson Center · at Marshall
#157TOLToledo
@
#230MRSHMarshall
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TOLThis seasonMRSH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOL 79–77 · win probability TOL 57%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

TOL 3, MRSH 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TOLBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: TOL 30.5, MRSH 29.2. Allowed: TOL 26.6, MRSH 41.1
TOLBig
TOL offense vs MRSH defense
Offense 121st of 366 against a defense 277th, on the model’s ratings
TOLBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TOL 14.7%, MRSH 16.6%. Forced: TOL 17.9%, MRSH 16.2%
MRSHSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: TOL 54.5 and allows 54.3; MRSH 54.8 and allows 50.3
Context
Schedule so far
TOL has played the 172nd-hardest schedule, MRSH the 234th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MRSHSmall
Home court
MRSH at home. This season: MRSH 0-0 at home, TOL 0-0 away
MRSHSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TOL 29.5%, MRSH 31.9%. Defensive: TOL 66.3%, MRSH 66.2%
Even
MRSH offense vs TOL defense
Offense 198th of 366 against a defense 234th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: TOL plays 69.5 a game (146th fastest), MRSH 70.7 (86th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TOL 43%, MRSH 27%. Transfers in: TOL 2, MRSH 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
TOL hits 37.0% and allows 34.4%; MRSH hits 36.8% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 32.5% and 44.3% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TOL -2.1—
Total—155.5—
Projected score—TOL 78.8 · MRSH 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTOL -1.4—
1H total72.7—
1H projected scoreTOL 37 · MRSH 35.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Toledo has the better starters

Position by position: Toledo 2, Marshall 0, even 3
ToledoBetterMarshall
G A. Montas TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89
TOLBig
G N. Otshudi14.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 45
G S. Jones TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 3.9 ast Not ranked
No call
G F. Oshodi TR8.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
G M. Strong5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 19
Even
G L. Rasmussen TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 15
F J. Ouwinga6.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27
Even
G D. Johnson TR2.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 17
C A. Parks10.3 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 54
TOLBig
F E. Harding3.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 11
ToledoBetterMarshall
TOL offense121st of 366 · -2.8
TOLBig
MRSH defense277th of 366 · -7.0
TOL defense234th of 366 · -6.2
Even
MRSH offense198th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players
TOLBig
Backcourt-4.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.5 · 1 player
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
Even
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTOL betterMRSH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Toledo
Guards
A. Montas31 min · TRS. Jones21 min · TRM. Strong18 minW. James9 minM. JohnsonNewM. MattucciNew
Forwards
J. Ouwinga19 minC. Riddle13 minT. Nwokolo2 minR. BarronNewR. PorterNew
Centers
A. Parks25 min
Marshall
Guards
N. Otshudi32 minF. Oshodi20 min · TRL. Rasmussen15 min · TRD. Johnson15 min · TRB. Slay8 minE. Manyuon2 min · TR
Forwards
E. Harding14 minC. Langdon3 min · TRV. Kuridza2 min · TRB. DjigoNew
Centers
K. Maker6 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TOLMRSH
Scoring
79.8 #71Points per game80.5 #56
1.15 #62Points per possession1.14 #71
69.5 #146Pace (possessions)70.7 #86
Shooting
54.5 #50Effective FG%54.8 #42
37.0 #293-point %36.8 #34
32.5 #3233-point attempt rate44.3 #82
30.5 #298Free throw rate29.2 #328
Possessions
14.7 #51Turnover rate16.6 #172
29.5 #220Offensive rebound rate31.9 #127
15.6 #61Assists per game16.2 #43
Defense
77.4 #250Points allowed78.9 #292
1.11 #257Points allowed per possession1.11 #253
54.3 #308Opponent effective FG%50.3 #118
34.4 #215Opponent 3-point %33.6 #162
17.9 #104Turnovers forced16.2 #206
66.3 #313Defensive rebound rate66.2 #316
7.7 #67Steals per game6.1 #225
2.9 #247Blocks per game4.8 #23
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Toledo

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Akron76–79
  • Wvs UMass77–67
  • Wvs Bowling Green77–76
  • Wvs Buffalo99–78
  • L@ Miami OH72–74

A week or more of rest.

Marshall

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern78–82
  • Lvs GA Southern82–99
  • Wvs Old Dominion97–88
  • L@ Coastal75–79
  • W@ App State94–93

A week or more of rest.