1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. CSUF @ SDAK
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Cal State Fullerton Titans at South Dakota Coyotes

Sanford Coyote Sports Center · at South Dakota
#312CSUFFullerton
@
#291SDAKSouth Dakota
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CSUFThis seasonSDAK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDAK 80–78 · win probability SDAK 57%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 157.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CSUF 3, SDAK 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SDAKBig
SDAK offense vs CSUF defense
Offense 197th of 366 against a defense 344th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CSUF has played the 164th-hardest schedule, SDAK the 305th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CSUFBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CSUF 15.3%, SDAK 16.5%. Forced: CSUF 19.4%, SDAK 15.9%
SDAKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CSUF 37.8, SDAK 45.2. Allowed: CSUF 35.3, SDAK 31.0
CSUFSmall
CSUF offense vs SDAK defense
Offense 272nd of 366 against a defense 355th, on the model’s ratings
CSUFSmall
Three-pointers
CSUF hits 34.2% and allows 34.0%; SDAK hits 32.4% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 43.1% and 35.9% of their shots
SDAKSmall
Home court
SDAK at home. This season: SDAK 0-0 at home, CSUF 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: CSUF 51.4 and allows 54.3; SDAK 49.9 and allows 54.5
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CSUF 39%, SDAK 26%. Transfers in: CSUF 1, SDAK 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 74 possessions: CSUF plays 75.5 a game (3rd fastest), SDAK 72.6 (23rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CSUF 24.6%, SDAK 28.7%. Defensive: CSUF 71.7%, SDAK 69.7%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SDAK -2.1—
Total—157.8—
Projected score—CSUF 77.9 · SDAK 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSDAK -1.1—
1H total73.7—
1H projected scoreCSUF 36.3 · SDAK 37.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

South Dakota has the better starters

Position by position: Fullerton 1, South Dakota 2, even 2
FullertonBetterSouth Dakota
G C. Williams9.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 39
CSUFSmall
G J. Summers TR9.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
G B. Nunn5 pts · 2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13
SDAKSmall
G M. Sanchez TR9.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 34
G D. White2.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 0
SDAKSmall
G V. Buzelis7.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
G T. Jenkins TR0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Kublickas TR5.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 19
F K. De Luna4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 7
Even
F E. Kizer4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.2 ast Score 5
FullertonBetterSouth Dakota
CSUF offense272nd of 366 · -8.3
CSUFSmall
SDAK defense355th of 366 · -10.1
CSUF defense344th of 366 · -9.2
SDAKBig
SDAK offense197th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt-6.1 · 4 players
CSUFSmall
Backcourt-7.3 · 4 players
Frontcourt-2.1 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
Bench-0.1 · 1 player
CSUFSmall
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestCSUF betterSDAK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Fullerton
Guards
C. Williams27 minB. Nunn19 minD. White13 minT. Jenkins3 min · TRM. Quinlan2 minD. McConnellNew
Forwards
K. De Luna18 minR. ReynoldsNew
South Dakota
Guards
J. Summers27 min · TRM. Sanchez25 min · TRV. Buzelis24 minK. Kublickas20 min · TRC. Kelderman4 min · TRE. WarrenNew
Forwards
E. Kizer15 minJ. Brack14 minJ. Townley-Thomas5 min · TRT. NetolickyNewB. DomschNew
Centers
S. van Bussel5 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CSUFSDAK
Scoring
80.3 #60Points per game78.0 #94
1.07 #208Points per possession1.07 #207
75.5 #3Pace (possessions)72.6 #23
Shooting
51.4 #180Effective FG%49.9 #239
34.2 #1623-point %32.4 #264
43.1 #1083-point attempt rate35.9 #251
37.8 #107Free throw rate45.2 #4
Possessions
15.3 #82Turnover rate16.5 #168
24.6 #345Offensive rebound rate28.7 #242
15.0 #85Assists per game11.9 #295
Defense
82.2 #342Points allowed81.7 #337
1.08 #181Points allowed per possession1.13 #284
54.3 #307Opponent effective FG%54.5 #318
34.0 #185Opponent 3-point %34.5 #219
19.4 #34Turnovers forced15.9 #225
71.7 #80Defensive rebound rate69.7 #172
7.9 #45Steals per game6.1 #223
2.8 #258Blocks per game2.6 #293
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Fullerton

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Hawai'i63–78
  • Wvs UC Davis82–70
  • W@ CSU Northridge90–77
  • Wvs UC San Diego75–71
  • Lvs Hawai'i85–87

A week or more of rest.

South Dakota

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Omaha62–76
  • Wvs S Dakota St75–70
  • Wvs Omaha89–72
  • L@ Oral Roberts62–67
  • L@ Denver70–90

A week or more of rest.