UNC Wilmington Seahawks at East Carolina Pirates: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 2:00 PM ETWilliams Arena at Minges Coliseum · at East Carolina

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UNC Wilmington and East Carolina
UNCW	This season	ECU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ECU 74–74 · win probability ECU 50%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

UNCW 3, ECU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNCWBig

Three-pointers

UNCW hits 35.0% and allows 29.7%; ECU hits 29.3% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 38.8% and 31.1% of their shots

UNCWBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNCW 50.4 and allows 47.5; ECU 46.4 and allows 52.3

UNCWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNCW 35.3%, ECU 33.4%. Defensive: UNCW 72.4%, ECU 67.5%

Context

Schedule so far

UNCW has played the 228th-hardest schedule, ECU the 123rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: UNCW plays 66.1 a game (310th fastest), ECU 70.0 (116th). Faster games mean more points

ECUSmall

Home court

ECU at home. This season: ECU 0-0 at home, UNCW 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNCW 35%, ECU 16%. Transfers in: UNCW 4, ECU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNCW 14.9%, ECU 17.1%. Forced: UNCW 14.9%, ECU 16.3%

Even

UNCW offense vs ECU defense

Offense 131st of 366 against a defense 158th, on the model’s ratings

Even

ECU offense vs UNCW defense

Offense 142nd of 366 against a defense 119th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNCW 40.4, ECU 39.2. Allowed: UNCW 31.7, ECU 32.2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ECU -0.1	—
Total	—	147.1	—
Projected score	—	UNCW 73.5 · ECU 73.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCW -0.1	—
1H total	68.8	—
1H projected score	UNCW 34.5 · ECU 34.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCW LWLWL	16-16	50%	8-6	—
ECU LLWLW	12-18	40%	6-10	—

Venue/role: UNCW away; ECU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCW OUOUO	18-14	56%	25-7
ECU UOUOO	16-14	53%	10-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCW	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
ECU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UNC Wilmington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs KENT	L77–86LO
Nov 14	vs UL	W70–63LO
Nov 18	@ LIU	No recent meeting

East Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs NCAT	W93–69WO
Nov 14	vs DSU	W79–50WU
Dec 1	vs RICH	L72–87LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNCW 3–1 ECUUNCW leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · UNCW has won the last 2 meetings · UNCW 3-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 18, 2025-26	ECU 60 @ UNCW 85	UNCW -6.5	UNCW W
Dec 3, 2024-25	UNCW 67 @ ECU 53	ECU -6.5	UNCW W
Nov 30, 2023-24	UNCW 66 @ ECU 74	ECU +2.5	ECU W
Dec 6, 2022-23	ECU 61 @ UNCW 74	UNCW -4.5	UNCW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNC Wilmington

32 games played

Straight up

25-7

78% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-778%

L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L L L W W L W W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O U U O U O O U O O U O U U O O O U O O O U U U O U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@KENT	L 77-86	+3.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsUPST	W 73-60	-14.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsECU	W 85-60	-6.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	@RAD	W 81-73	-4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsSELA	W 70-57	-11.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsNAVY	W 87-57	-8.5	W +21.5	138.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsGWEB	W 88-62	-18.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 3	vsMRSH	W 70-69	-8.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UL	W 70-63	-12.5	L −5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@VAL	W 73-70	-4.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 20	vsHOW	L 66-67	-15.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 133
Dec 29	@NCAT	W 87-78	-10.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 31	vsDREX	W 65-53	-12.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsHAMP	W 49-45	-12.5	L −8.5	140.5	U 94
Jan 8	@NE	W 87-78	-4.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 165
Jan 10	@STBK	W 75-71	-6.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsCAM	W 78-75	-6.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 22	@W&M	L 70-77	+2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 147
Jan 24	@HAMP	W 75-67	-4.5	W +3.5	136.5	O 142
Jan 29	@TOW	W 82-73	+1.5	W +10.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 5	vsW&M	L 78-85	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 163
Feb 9	@COFC	W 76-64	+1.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 12	vsELON	W 65-54	-8.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsHOF	W 70-66	-2.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 19	vsMONM	W 79-69	-7.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 21	@CAM	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 26	vsNCAT	W 88-65	-13.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 153
Mar 1	vsCOFC	L 76-79	-5.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 3	@ELON	W 76-57	-4.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 133
Mar 8	vsCAM	L 70-85	-6.5	L −21.5	149.5	O 155
Mar 17	@YALE	W 68-67	+4.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 135
Mar 21	vsDAY	L 61-80	+3.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

−5.5

UPST

W 73-60

−1.5

ECU

W 85-60

+18.5

RAD

W 81-73

+3.5

SELA

W 70-57

+1.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+21.5

GWEB

W 88-62

+7.5

MRSH

W 70-69

−7.5

W 70-63

−5.5

VAL

W 73-70

−1.5

HOW

L 66-67

−16.5

NCAT

W 87-78

−1.5

DREX

W 65-53

−0.5

HAMP

W 49-45

−8.5

W 87-78

+4.5

STBK

W 75-71

−2.5

CAM

W 78-75

−3.5

W&M

L 70-77

−4.5

HAMP

W 75-67

+3.5

TOW

W 82-73

+10.5

W&M

L 78-85

−11.5

COFC

W 76-64

+13.5

ELON

W 65-54

+2.5

HOF

W 70-66

+1.5

MONM

W 79-69

+2.5

CAM

W 73-68

+1.5

NCAT

W 88-65

+9.5

COFC

L 76-79

−8.5

ELON

W 76-57

+14.5

CAM

L 70-85

−21.5

YALE

W 68-67

+5.5

DAY

L 61-80

−15.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

+6.5

UPST

W 73-60

−22.5

ECU

W 85-60

−0.5

RAD

W 81-73

+2.5

SELA

W 70-57

−10.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+5.5

GWEB

W 88-62

+2.5

MRSH

W 70-69

−11.5

W 70-63

+2.5

VAL

W 73-70

+6.5

HOW

L 66-67

−8.5

NCAT

W 87-78

+18.5

DREX

W 65-53

−19.5

HAMP

W 49-45

−46.5

W 87-78

+22.5

STBK

W 75-71

+12.5

CAM

W 78-75

+3.5

W&M

L 70-77

−12.5

HAMP

W 75-67

+5.5

TOW

W 82-73

+19.5

W&M

L 78-85

+3.5

COFC

W 76-64

−8.5

ELON

W 65-54

−30.5

HOF

W 70-66

−1.5

MONM

W 79-69

+3.5

CAM

W 73-68

−9.5

NCAT

W 88-65

+6.5

COFC

L 76-79

+8.5

ELON

W 76-57

−12.5

CAM

L 70-85

+5.5

YALE

W 68-67

−13.5

DAY

L 61-80

+2.5

over 18under 14avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

East Carolina

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

W L L L L L W L L W W L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

L L L L L W L L L W W L L L W W L L W L W L W W W L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O U U O U U O U U U O O U O U O U U O U O O O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsGASO	W 92-89	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	@RICH	L 72-87	+5.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 18	@UNCW	L 60-85	+6.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsCHSO	L 65-77	-13.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsMSU	L 56-89	+19.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 27	vsSBU	L 58-67	+10.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 125
Dec 2	vsUMES	W 68-56	-12.5	L −0.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsUNCG	L 78-82	-7.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 160
Dec 11	vsAPP	L 54-67	-4.5	L −17.5	130.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsBUF	W 73-70	-1.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 143
Dec 17	vsPRES	W 74-53	-4.5	W +16.5	131.5	U 127
Dec 22	@UNC	L 51-99	+25.5	L −22.5	144.5	O 150
Dec 31	vsTULN	L 70-79	+1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 7	@TEM	L 67-75	+7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 11	vsUAB	L 85-87	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 14	@USF	L 71-82	+18.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 18	vsCLT	L 70-73	-1.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 21	@WICH	L 60-77	+12.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 23	@UNT	W 63-59	+10.5	W +14.5	134.5	U 122
Jan 28	vsRICE	L 77-83	-2.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 160
Feb 1	@FAU	W 76-75	+10.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 151
Feb 7	vsTEM	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 154
Feb 11	vsUTSA	W 88-72	-10.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 14	@RICE	W 85-75	+4.5	W +14.5	146.5	O 160
Feb 18	vsWICH	L 89-92	+7.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 181
Feb 21	@CLT	L 56-68	+4.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 124
Feb 25	@UTSA	W 82-81	-4.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Mar 1	vsMEM	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152
Mar 5	vsTLSA	L 66-93	+8.5	L −18.5	156.5	O 159
Mar 8	@UAB	L 83-90	+10.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

−2.5

RICH

L 72-87

−9.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−18.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−25.5

MSU

L 56-89

−13.5

SBU

L 58-67

+1.5

UMES

W 68-56

−0.5

UNCG

L 78-82

−11.5

APP

L 54-67

−17.5

BUF

W 73-70

+1.5

PRES

W 74-53

+16.5

UNC

L 51-99

−22.5

TULN

L 70-79

−7.5

TEM

L 67-75

−0.5

UAB

L 85-87

+5.5

USF

L 71-82

+7.5

CLT

L 70-73

−4.5

WICH

L 60-77

−4.5

UNT

W 63-59

+14.5

RICE

L 77-83

−8.5

FAU

W 76-75

+11.5

TEM

L 73-81

−5.5

UTSA

W 88-72

+5.5

RICE

W 85-75

+14.5

WICH

L 89-92

+4.5

CLT

L 56-68

−7.5

UTSA

W 82-81

−3.5

MEM

W 84-68

+20.5

TLSA

L 66-93

−18.5

UAB

L 83-90

+3.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

+29.5

RICH

L 72-87

+15.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−0.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−15.5

MSU

L 56-89

+4.5

SBU

L 58-67

−19.5

UMES

W 68-56

−3.5

UNCG

L 78-82

+20.5

APP

L 54-67

−9.5

BUF

W 73-70

−3.5

PRES

W 74-53

−4.5

UNC

L 51-99

+5.5

TULN

L 70-79

+3.5

TEM

L 67-75

−1.5

UAB

L 85-87

+21.5

USF

L 71-82

−5.5

CLT

L 70-73

+3.5

WICH

L 60-77

−7.5

UNT

W 63-59

−12.5

RICE

L 77-83

+19.5

FAU

W 76-75

−2.5

TEM

L 73-81

+13.5

UTSA

W 88-72

+9.5

RICE

W 85-75

+13.5

WICH

L 89-92

+31.5

CLT

L 56-68

−21.5

UTSA

W 82-81

+9.5

MEM

W 84-68

−0.5

TLSA

L 66-93

+2.5

UAB

L 83-90

+21.5

over 16under 14avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

East Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Wilmington 1, East Carolina 2, even 2

UNC WilmingtonBetterEast Carolina

G W. Kermoury TR13.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 75

UNCWBig

G C. Medley TR10.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 32

G T. Pettway TR8.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 2 ast Score 64

ECUSmall

G B. Blaine TR17.7 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82

F G. Walsh9.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 57

Even

F K. Watson TR12.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

F S. Elliott TR4.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 23

ECUBig

F K. Cooper TR8.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76

C P. Wessler13.5 pts · 9.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 87

No call

F J. Woodard3.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked

UNC WilmingtonBetterEast Carolina

UNCW offense131st of 366 · -3.7

Even

ECU defense158th of 366 · -3.4

UNCW defense119th of 366 · -1.8

Even

ECU offense142nd of 366 · -4.3

Backcourt+1.0 · 2 players

UNCWSmall

Backcourt-0.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+2.5 · 3 players

UNCWSmall

Frontcourt+0.4 · 3 players

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

Even

Bench-1.8 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestUNCW betterECU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UNC Wilmington

Guards

W. Kermoury27 min · TRT. Pettway22 min · TRJ. Lamothe15 minX. Brown12 min · TRM. Smith3 minC. LusterNew

Forwards

G. Walsh26 minS. Elliott17 min · TRT. NelsonNewM. ProdanovicNewW. SewardNew

Centers

P. Wessler27 min

East Carolina

Guards

C. Medley34 min · TRB. Blaine29 min · TRT. Best6 min · TRA. McCulloughNewM. PandovNew

Forwards

K. Watson32 min · TRK. Cooper26 min · TRJ. Woodard17 minJ. BuchananNewD. QuinnNewD. Creasy-QuirindoongoNew

Centers

E. DeLaurier15 minM. KlitschkoNewM. HintonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNCW74.6 #174

ECU71.5 #259

Points per possession

UNCW1.13 #84

ECU1.02 #305

Pace (possessions)

UNCW66.1 #310

ECU70.0 #116

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNCW50.4 #220

ECU46.4 #346

3-point %

UNCW35.0 #124

ECU29.3 #350

3-point attempt rate

UNCW38.8 #194

ECU31.1 #337

Free throw rate

UNCW40.4 #54

ECU39.2 #75

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNCW14.9 #57

ECU17.1 #208

Offensive rebound rate

UNCW35.3 #40

ECU33.4 #79

Assists per game

UNCW13.1 #204

ECU11.8 #301

Defense

Points allowed

UNCW68.1 #32

ECU77.7 #262

Points allowed per possession

UNCW1.03 #56

ECU1.11 #246

Opponent effective FG%

UNCW47.5 #30

ECU52.3 #229

Opponent 3-point %

UNCW29.7 #6

ECU34.9 #245

Turnovers forced

UNCW14.9 #297

ECU16.3 #205

Defensive rebound rate

UNCW72.4 #51

ECU67.5 #282

Steals per game

UNCW5.1 #330

ECU6.5 #177

Blocks per game

UNCW2.4 #312

ECU4.0 #74

UNCW		ECU
Scoring
74.6 #174	Points per game	71.5 #259
1.13 #84	Points per possession	1.02 #305
66.1 #310	Pace (possessions)	70.0 #116
Shooting
50.4 #220	Effective FG%	46.4 #346
35.0 #124	3-point %	29.3 #350
38.8 #194	3-point attempt rate	31.1 #337
40.4 #54	Free throw rate	39.2 #75
Possessions
14.9 #57	Turnover rate	17.1 #208
35.3 #40	Offensive rebound rate	33.4 #79
13.1 #204	Assists per game	11.8 #301
Defense
68.1 #32	Points allowed	77.7 #262
1.03 #56	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #246
47.5 #30	Opponent effective FG%	52.3 #229
29.7 #6	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #245
14.9 #297	Turnovers forced	16.3 #205
72.4 #51	Defensive rebound rate	67.5 #282
5.1 #330	Steals per game	6.5 #177
2.4 #312	Blocks per game	4.0 #74

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Wilmington

25-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Dayton61–80
W@ Yale68–67
Lvs Campbell70–85
W@ Elon76–57
Lvs Charleston76–79

A week or more of rest.

East Carolina

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-12 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UAB83–90
Lvs Tulsa66–93
Wvs Memphis84–68
W@ UTSA82–81
L@ Charlotte56–68

A week or more of rest.

UNC Wilmington Seahawks at East Carolina Pirates

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UNC Wilmington

East Carolina

East Carolina has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UNC Wilmington

East Carolina