1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. LBSU @ MTST
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Long Beach State Beach at Montana State Bobcats

Worthington Arena · at Montana St
#297LBSULong Beach St
@
#162MTSTMontana St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LBSUThis seasonMTST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MTST 79–67 · win probability MTST 84%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 146.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MTST has more of the edges

LBSU 0, MTST 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MTSTBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LBSU 8%, MTST 89%. Transfers in: LBSU 5, MTST 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MTSTBig
LBSU offense vs MTST defense
Offense 285th of 366 against a defense 155th, on the model’s ratings
MTSTBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LBSU 30.7, MTST 30.2. Allowed: LBSU 42.3, MTST 29.6
Context
Schedule so far
LBSU has played the 152nd-hardest schedule, MTST the 278th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MTSTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: LBSU 50.6 and allows 53.7; MTST 53.6 and allows 51.6
MTSTBig
MTST offense vs LBSU defense
Offense 190th of 366 against a defense 300th, on the model’s ratings
MTSTSmall
Three-pointers
LBSU hits 32.7% and allows 34.4%; MTST hits 36.1% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 34.8% and 44.6% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: LBSU plays 71.7 a game (46th fastest), MTST 67.9 (233rd). Faster games mean more points
MTSTSmall
Home court
MTST at home. This season: MTST 0-0 at home, LBSU 0-0 away
MTSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LBSU 18.0%, MTST 14.8%. Forced: LBSU 17.5%, MTST 15.6%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LBSU 26.2%, MTST 27.0%. Defensive: LBSU 72.2%, MTST 71.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MTST -11.5—
Total—146.3—
Projected score—LBSU 67.4 · MTST 78.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMTST -6.7—
1H total68.4—
1H projected scoreLBSU 30.9 · MTST 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Long Beach St 1, Montana St 1, even 3
Long Beach StBetterMontana St
G J. Payne TR6.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 40
MTSTBig
G J. Miller15.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82
G Y. Sissoko TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 32
No call
G C. Holden8.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked
G C. Jones3.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Davis9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59
F G. Brcic TR4.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 39
Even
G S. Amunrud7.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
C N. Amenhauser TR5.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 57
LBSUSmall
F C. King12.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 41
Long Beach StBetterMontana St
LBSU offense285th of 366 · -8.8
MTSTBig
MTST defense155th of 366 · -3.4
LBSU defense300th of 366 · -7.7
MTSTSmall
MTST offense190th of 366 · -5.8
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
MTSTSmall
Backcourt-0.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.9 · 1 player
Bench-1.9 · 2 players
LBSUSmall
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLBSU betterMTST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Long Beach St
Guards
J. Payne22 min · TRY. Sissoko11 min · TRC. Jones10 minJ. TenganNewJ. GrayNewM. AdamsNew
Forwards
G. Brcic17 min · TRK. Smith8 min · TRJ. Chaikovsky6 minB. WrightNewH. LauNewM. VanlaninghamNew
Centers
N. Amenhauser12 min · TR
Montana St
Guards
J. Miller36 minC. Holden28 minJ. Davis25 minS. Amunrud21 minH. Keene11 minD. Slater7 min · TR
Forwards
C. King29 minJ. Steppe15 minW. Mbatch11 minL. Praytor4 min · TRC. Rutherfurd1 minJ. StewardNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LBSUMTST
Scoring
73.2 #219Points per game75.7 #151
1.02 #303Points per possession1.12 #107
71.7 #46Pace (possessions)67.9 #233
Shooting
50.6 #207Effective FG%53.6 #80
32.7 #2453-point %36.1 #52
34.8 #2803-point attempt rate44.6 #76
30.7 #287Free throw rate30.2 #303
Possessions
18.0 #271Turnover rate14.8 #53
26.2 #315Offensive rebound rate27.0 #292
12.3 #264Assists per game10.6 #347
Defense
79.0 #297Points allowed73.5 #144
1.10 #220Points allowed per possession1.08 #158
53.7 #290Opponent effective FG%51.6 #193
34.4 #212Opponent 3-point %34.3 #198
17.5 #119Turnovers forced15.6 #242
72.2 #60Defensive rebound rate71.8 #75
6.5 #173Steals per game6.5 #171
2.9 #250Blocks per game2.8 #263
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Long Beach St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • W@ Hawai'i84–75
  • Lvs UC Davis70–76
  • W@ Bakersfield88–87
  • L@ Cal Poly92–102
  • Lvs CSU Northridge76–78

A week or more of rest.

Montana St

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho74–78
  • W@ N Arizona76–65
  • Wvs Sacramento St82–61
  • Wvs Portland St84–69
  • L@ Idaho St76–91

A week or more of rest.