North Carolina Central Eagles at Longwood Lancers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 3:00 PM ETJoan Perry Brock Center · at Longwood

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: NC Central and Longwood
NCCU	This season	LONG
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LONG 82–68 · win probability LONG 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LONG has more of the edges

NCCU 0, LONG 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LONGBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NCCU 30.0%, LONG 34.6%. Defensive: NCCU 60.6%, LONG 72.3%

LONGBig

LONG offense vs NCCU defense

Offense 182nd of 366 against a defense 352nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NCCU plays 66.9 a game (282nd fastest), LONG 71.5 (54th). Faster games mean more points

LONGSmall

NCCU offense vs LONG defense

Offense 345th of 366 against a defense 242nd, on the model’s ratings

LONGSmall

Home court

LONG at home. This season: LONG 0-0 at home, NCCU 0-0 away

LONGSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NCCU 47.5 and allows 54.5; LONG 49.7 and allows 53.8

LONGSmall

Three-pointers

NCCU hits 32.6% and allows 36.4%; LONG hits 31.4% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 33.9% and 34.8% of their shots

LONGSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NCCU 4%, LONG 28%. Transfers in: NCCU 4, LONG 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NCCU 39.3, LONG 41.4. Allowed: NCCU 36.9, LONG 42.1

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NCCU 18.2%, LONG 19.2%. Forced: NCCU 19.8%, LONG 19.7%

Context

Schedule so far

NCCU has played the 310th-hardest schedule, LONG the 330th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LONG -14.4	—
Total	—	149.6	—
Projected score	—	NCCU 67.6 · LONG 82

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LONG -8.4	—
1H total	70.0	—
1H projected score	NCCU 30.8 · LONG 39.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCCU WLWWW	15-13	54%	9-7	—
LONG WLWWL	13-16	45%	7-5	—

Venue/role: NCCU away; LONG home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCCU OOOUU	14-14	50%	10-18
LONG OUOOO	16-13	55%	13-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCCU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
LONG	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

NC Central

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ VMI	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ LIB	L63–79LO
Nov 18	@ GMU	L58–75LU

Longwood

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ ODU	L61–62WU
Nov 18	vs VMI	W68–49WU
Nov 21	@ ETSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NCCU 2–3 LONGLONG leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · LONG has won the last 2 meetings · NCCU 4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 20, 2025-26	LONG 74 @ NCCU 72	NCCU +3.5	NCCU W
Dec 20, 2024-25	LONG 82 @ NCCU 67	NCCU +3.5	LONG W
Dec 14, 2024-25	NCCU 77 @ LONG 70	LONG -8.5	NCCU W
Dec 20, 2023-24	LONG 70 @ NCCU 79	NCCU +5.5	NCCU W
Nov 18, 2023-24	NCCU 66 @ LONG 73	LONG -10.5	NCCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC Central

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

15-13

54% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-14

50% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L L L L L L L L L L W W W L W L W L W L L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1354%

L W L L W L W L W W W W W W L L L W L L L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1450%

O U U U U O U U O U O U O O O U U O U O O O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NCSU	L 66-114	+31.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	@UVA	L 62-81	+34.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 9	@APP	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UNC	L 53-97	+34.5	L −9.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 22	@DAY	L 55-74	+29.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 129
Nov 25	@UPST	L 67-82	+7.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 3	@JMU	L 62-67	+14.5	W +9.5	143.5	U 129
Dec 6	vsNCAT	L 54-69	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 123
Dec 9	@UK	L 67-103	+42.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsLONG	L 72-74	+3.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 29	@PSU	L 67-90	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 157
Jan 3	vsNORF	W 69-67	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 10	@COPP	W 88-77	-6.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 12	@MORG	W 89-78	-3.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 167
Jan 17	vsHOW	L 69-83	+2.5	L −11.5	141.5	O 152
Feb 2	vsUMES	W 65-63	-2.5	L −0.5	134.5	U 128
Feb 7	@NORF	L 68-75	+4.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 9	vsDSU	W 72-63	-7.5	W +1.5	134.5	O 135
Feb 14	vsCOPP	L 56-58	-10.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 114
Feb 16	vsMORG	W 80-76	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 156
Feb 18	@SCST	L 72-85	-2.5	L −15.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 21	@HOW	L 67-100	+12.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 167
Feb 28	@DSU	W 74-60	-2.5	W +11.5	135.5	U 134
Mar 2	@UMES	W 77-73	+2.5	W +6.5	133.5	O 150
Mar 5	vsSCST	L 64-80	-7.5	L −23.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 12	vsUMES	W 83-76	+1.5	W +8.5	131.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsDSU	W 59-53	-3.5	W +2.5	131.5	U 112
Mar 14	vsHOW	L 63-70	+11.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

−16.5

UVA

L 62-81

+15.5

APP

L 54-76

−11.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

DAY

L 55-74

+10.5

UPST

L 67-82

−7.5

JMU

L 62-67

+9.5

NCAT

L 54-69

−12.5

L 67-103

+6.5

LONG

L 72-74

+1.5

PSU

L 67-90

+0.5

NORF

W 69-67

+3.5

COPP

W 88-77

+4.5

MORG

W 89-78

+7.5

HOW

L 69-83

−11.5

UMES

W 65-63

−0.5

NORF

L 68-75

−2.5

DSU

W 72-63

+1.5

COPP

L 56-58

−12.5

MORG

W 80-76

−1.5

SCST

L 72-85

−15.5

HOW

L 67-100

−20.5

DSU

W 74-60

+11.5

UMES

W 77-73

+6.5

SCST

L 64-80

−23.5

UMES

W 83-76

+8.5

DSU

W 59-53

+2.5

HOW

L 63-70

+4.5

covered 15didn’t cover 13avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

+34.5

UVA

L 62-81

−8.5

APP

L 54-76

−6.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

DAY

L 55-74

−17.5

UPST

L 67-82

+0.5

JMU

L 62-67

−14.5

NCAT

L 54-69

−19.5

L 67-103

+21.5

LONG

L 72-74

−0.5

PSU

L 67-90

+6.5

NORF

W 69-67

−5.5

COPP

W 88-77

+21.5

MORG

W 89-78

+25.5

HOW

L 69-83

+10.5

UMES

W 65-63

−6.5

NORF

L 68-75

−5.5

DSU

W 72-63

+0.5

COPP

L 56-58

−29.5

MORG

W 80-76

+9.5

SCST

L 72-85

+20.5

HOW

L 67-100

+23.5

DSU

W 74-60

−1.5

UMES

W 77-73

+16.5

SCST

L 64-80

+3.5

UMES

W 83-76

+27.5

DSU

W 59-53

−19.5

HOW

L 63-70

−9.5

over 14under 14avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Longwood

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-13

55% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L W W L L L W L W L L W W L L W L W W L L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L W L L L L L L L L W L W W L W W W W L L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1355%

U O O O O U U O O O U U U U U O O U O U U O U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@PITT	L 60-78	+14.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 12	vsJMU	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	vsBING	W 90-82	-15.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUMES	L 82-83	-17.5	L −18.5	138.5	O 165
Nov 23	@COLU	L 70-95	+3.5	L −21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsSIE	L 63-70	+5.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsME	W 65-61	-5.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	@AMER	L 66-92	+5.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 6	@MORG	W 84-80	-5.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 164
Dec 13	vsDSU	L 76-81	-13.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 157
Dec 17	@WAKE	L 68-71	+24.5	W +21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 20	@NCCU	W 74-72	-3.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsWIN	W 82-70	+7.5	W +19.5	161.5	U 152
Jan 3	@HPU	L 67-80	+16.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 147
Jan 7	@UNCA	L 61-72	+2.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 133
Jan 10	vsPRES	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	139.5	O 147
Jan 17	@RAD	L 83-85	+4.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsGWEB	W 91-56	-16.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 147
Jan 23	vsCHSO	W 81-79	-1.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 160
Jan 29	@UPST	L 60-65	-1.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 125
Jan 31	vsHPU	L 59-71	+9.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 130
Feb 4	@GWEB	W 86-66	-12.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 7	@WIN	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 12	vsUNCA	L 74-79	-2.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsUPST	W 82-75	-6.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@PRES	L 65-72	+2.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 21	@CHSO	W 107-96	+2.5	W +13.5	154.5	O 203
Feb 28	vsRAD	W 90-74	-1.5	W +14.5	154.5	O 164
Mar 6	vsUNCA	L 82-85	-1.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−3.5

JMU

W 82-72

+11.5

BING

W 90-82

−7.5

UMES

L 82-83

−18.5

COLU

L 70-95

−21.5

SIE

L 63-70

−1.5

W 65-61

−1.5

AMER

L 66-92

−20.5

MORG

W 84-80

−1.5

DSU

L 76-81

−18.5

WAKE

L 68-71

+21.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−1.5

WIN

W 82-70

+19.5

HPU

L 67-80

+3.5

UNCA

L 61-72

−8.5

PRES

W 77-70

+3.5

RAD

L 83-85

+2.5

GWEB

W 91-56

+18.5

CHSO

W 81-79

+0.5

UPST

L 60-65

−6.5

HPU

L 59-71

−2.5

GWEB

W 86-66

+7.5

WIN

L 74-79

+5.5

UNCA

L 74-79

−7.5

UPST

W 82-75

+0.5

PRES

L 65-72

−4.5

CHSO

W 107-96

+13.5

RAD

W 90-74

+14.5

UNCA

L 82-85

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−7.5

JMU

W 82-72

+4.5

BING

W 90-82

+24.5

UMES

L 82-83

+26.5

COLU

L 70-95

+11.5

SIE

L 63-70

−12.5

W 65-61

−12.5

AMER

L 66-92

+9.5

MORG

W 84-80

+9.5

DSU

L 76-81

+17.5

WAKE

L 68-71

−24.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−0.5

WIN

W 82-70

−9.5

HPU

L 67-80

−13.5

UNCA

L 61-72

−15.5

PRES

W 77-70

+7.5

RAD

L 83-85

+10.5

GWEB

W 91-56

−8.5

CHSO

W 81-79

+3.5

UPST

L 60-65

−22.5

HPU

L 59-71

−26.5

GWEB

W 86-66

+4.5

WIN

L 74-79

−0.5

UNCA

L 74-79

+11.5

UPST

W 82-75

+9.5

PRES

L 65-72

−2.5

CHSO

W 107-96

+48.5

RAD

W 90-74

+9.5

UNCA

L 82-85

+26.5

over 16under 13avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Longwood has the better starters

Position by position: NC Central 0, Longwood 3, even 2

NC CentralBetterLongwood

G T. Brown TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11

LONGBig

G M. Williams TR9.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.1 ast Score 65

G R. Archey3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Billups7.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 47

F C. Meeks TR5.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 6

LONGBig

G J. Benard7.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 44

F T. Mason TR5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32

LONGSmall

G T. Robinson TR9.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.5 ast Score 64

F M. Vassel TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G E. Kelly2.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28

NC CentralBetterLongwood

NCCU offense345th of 366 · -11.9

LONGSmall

LONG defense242nd of 366 · -6.4

NCCU defense352nd of 366 · -9.9

LONGBig

LONG offense182nd of 366 · -5.7

Backcourt-2.4 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-1.7 · 5 players

Frontcourt-5.2 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNCCU betterLONG betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

NC Central

Guards

T. Brown14 min · TRR. Archey8 minD. KaneNewC. SanonNewI. BuckleyNewA. BowserNew

Forwards

C. Meeks29 min · TRT. Mason12 min · TRM. Vassel8 min · TRJ. PriceNewD. DuorNew

Centers

D. MbaetekaNew

Longwood

Guards

M. Williams24 min · TRA. Billups23 minJ. Benard20 minT. Robinson19 min · TRE. Kelly11 minB. Wesson2 min · TR

Forwards

D. Kauzonas10 min · TRL. Milosevic8 min · TRK. Musungay4 min · TRI. Kalala3 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NCCU67.6 #322

LONG75.9 #143

Points per possession

NCCU1.02 #308

LONG1.07 #215

Pace (possessions)

NCCU66.9 #282

LONG71.5 #54

Shooting

Effective FG%

NCCU47.5 #328

LONG49.7 #254

3-point %

NCCU32.6 #247

LONG31.4 #309

3-point attempt rate

NCCU33.9 #299

LONG34.8 #279

Free throw rate

NCCU39.3 #72

LONG41.4 #40

Possessions

Turnover rate

NCCU18.2 #285

LONG19.2 #327

Offensive rebound rate

NCCU30.0 #201

LONG34.6 #57

Assists per game

NCCU12.1 #279

LONG12.2 #270

Defense

Points allowed

NCCU77.3 #246

LONG76.2 #223

Points allowed per possession

NCCU1.15 #322

LONG1.06 #113

Opponent effective FG%

NCCU54.5 #317

LONG53.8 #293

Opponent 3-point %

NCCU36.4 #321

LONG33.8 #171

Turnovers forced

NCCU19.8 #27

LONG19.7 #31

Defensive rebound rate

NCCU60.6 #364

LONG72.3 #58

Steals per game

NCCU7.7 #60

LONG8.3 #28

Blocks per game

NCCU3.4 #165

LONG2.0 #347

NCCU		LONG
Scoring
67.6 #322	Points per game	75.9 #143
1.02 #308	Points per possession	1.07 #215
66.9 #282	Pace (possessions)	71.5 #54
Shooting
47.5 #328	Effective FG%	49.7 #254
32.6 #247	3-point %	31.4 #309
33.9 #299	3-point attempt rate	34.8 #279
39.3 #72	Free throw rate	41.4 #40
Possessions
18.2 #285	Turnover rate	19.2 #327
30.0 #201	Offensive rebound rate	34.6 #57
12.1 #279	Assists per game	12.2 #270
Defense
77.3 #246	Points allowed	76.2 #223
1.15 #322	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #113
54.5 #317	Opponent effective FG%	53.8 #293
36.4 #321	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #171
19.8 #27	Turnovers forced	19.7 #31
60.6 #364	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #58
7.7 #60	Steals per game	8.3 #28
3.4 #165	Blocks per game	2.0 #347

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC Central

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard63–70
Wvs Delaware St59–53
Wvs MD Eastern83–76
Lvs SC State64–80
W@ MD Eastern77–73

A week or more of rest.

Longwood

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Asheville82–85
Wvs Radford90–74
W@ Charleston So107–96
L@ Presbyterian65–72
Wvs SC Upstate82–75

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina Central Eagles at Longwood Lancers

What could decide it: LONG has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

NC Central

Longwood

Longwood has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

NC Central

Longwood