1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. SDSU vs COLO
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

San Diego State Aztecs vs Colorado Buffaloes

Pechanga Arena · Neutral site
#75SDSUSan Diego St
vs
#65COLOColorado
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SDSUThis seasonCOLO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLO 78–76 · win probability COLO 56%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SDSU has more of the edges

SDSU 2, COLO 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SDSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SDSU 52.7 and allows 48.2; COLO 52.9 and allows 52.6
SDSUSmall
Three-pointers
SDSU hits 34.5% and allows 33.6%; COLO hits 35.1% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 33.8% and 35.2% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SDSU 20%, COLO 40%. Transfers in: SDSU 4, COLO 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SDSU 17.2%, COLO 14.7%. Forced: SDSU 20.2%, COLO 15.2%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SDSU 29.5%, COLO 29.0%. Defensive: SDSU 68.9%, COLO 70.4%
Context
Schedule so far
SDSU has played the 80th-hardest schedule, COLO the 58th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
COLO offense vs SDSU defense
Offense 54th of 366 against a defense 70th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SDSU 39.0, COLO 36.6. Allowed: SDSU 38.5, COLO 36.6
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: SDSU plays 70.6 a game (89th fastest), COLO 71.0 (76th). Faster games mean more points
Even
SDSU offense vs COLO defense
Offense 86th of 366 against a defense 80th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—COLO -1.7—
Total—154.0—
Projected score—SDSU 76.1 · COLO 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCOLO -0.9—
1H total72.0—
1H projected scoreSDSU 35.5 · COLO 36.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: San Diego St 1, Colorado 1, even 3
San Diego StBetterColorado
G C. Gladden TR14.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 67
COLOSmall
G B. Hargress14.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 93
G N. Anderson TR16 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 95
Even
F J. Neely TR17.7 pts · 11.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 96
G I. Sy TR10 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 57
SDSUSmall
F I. Niagu TR4.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
G E. Harrington7.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 63
No call
F D. Gomez TR5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
F B. Cherry TR15.3 pts · 6.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
C N. Feddersen TR9 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 59
San Diego StBetterColorado
SDSU offense86th of 366 · +0.3
Even
COLO defense80th of 366 · +0.3
SDSU defense70th of 366 · +0.8
Even
COLO offense54th of 366 · +3.2
Backcourt+3.9 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt+3.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player
COLOBig
Frontcourt+5.3 · 4 players
Bench+0.9 · 3 players
SDSUBig
Bench-2.7 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestSDSU betterCOLO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
San Diego St
Guards
C. Gladden34 min · TRN. Anderson30 min · TRI. Sy28 min · TRE. Harrington21 minR. Gonzales2 minL. DavisNew
Forwards
B. Cherry29 min · TRT. Simmons14 minT. Majak3 minS. MashebinuNewL. SkoricNewL. VinciniNew
Colorado
Guards
B. Hargress33 minJ. Sanders18 minJ. Holland18 minI. Inman10 minA. JonesNewR. PortelaNew
Forwards
J. Neely33 min · TRI. Niagu21 min · TRD. Gomez20 min · TRN. Randall1 minG. MalualNewC. HillNew
Centers
N. Feddersen21 min · TRE. JacobsenNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SDSUCOLO
Scoring
76.8 #120Points per game80.2 #63
1.09 #159Points per possession1.13 #80
70.6 #89Pace (possessions)71.0 #76
Shooting
52.7 #116Effective FG%52.9 #108
34.5 #1443-point %35.1 #104
33.8 #3013-point attempt rate35.2 #267
39.0 #81Free throw rate36.6 #139
Possessions
17.2 #224Turnover rate14.7 #46
29.5 #222Offensive rebound rate29.0 #235
14.6 #110Assists per game15.4 #67
Defense
71.3 #84Points allowed79.8 #313
1.01 #31Points allowed per possession1.12 #272
48.2 #41Opponent effective FG%52.6 #243
33.6 #164Opponent 3-point %36.3 #319
20.2 #19Turnovers forced15.2 #267
68.9 #208Defensive rebound rate70.4 #144
7.7 #62Steals per game6.3 #196
4.6 #27Blocks per game3.3 #170
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

San Diego St

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Utah State62–73
  • Wvs New Mexico64–62
  • Wvs Colorado St71–62
  • Wvs UNLV89–86
  • L@ Boise St77–86

A week or more of rest.

Colorado

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma86–90
  • Lvs Oklahoma St83–92
  • Lvs Arizona79–89
  • W@ Utah92–78
  • L@ Houston62–102

A week or more of rest.