1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. USD @ COLO
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

San Diego Toreros at Colorado Buffaloes

CU Events Center · at Colorado
#146USDSan Diego
@
#65COLOColorado
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USDThis seasonCOLO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLO 85–70 · win probability COLO 90%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COLO has more of the edges

USD 1, COLO 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
COLOBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: USD 25.8, COLO 36.6. Allowed: USD 38.8, COLO 36.6
COLOBig
COLO offense vs USD defense
Offense 54th of 366 against a defense 189th, on the model’s ratings
COLOSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USD 28.1%, COLO 29.0%. Defensive: USD 65.5%, COLO 70.4%
USDSmall
Three-pointers
USD hits 34.6% and allows 32.7%; COLO hits 35.1% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 43.7% and 35.2% of their shots
COLOSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: USD 51.2 and allows 54.7; COLO 52.9 and allows 52.6
Context
Schedule so far
USD has played the 130th-hardest schedule, COLO the 58th. A record against a soft schedule means less
COLOSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USD 7%, COLO 40%. Transfers in: USD 7, COLO 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
COLOSmall
Home court
COLO at home. This season: COLO 0-0 at home, USD 0-0 away
COLOSmall
USD offense vs COLO defense
Offense 127th of 366 against a defense 80th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: USD plays 69.6 a game (139th fastest), COLO 71.0 (76th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USD 17.6%, COLO 14.7%. Forced: USD 18.8%, COLO 15.2%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—COLO -14.8—
Total—155.2—
Projected score—USD 70.2 · COLO 85

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCOLO -8.7—
1H total72.5—
1H projected scoreUSD 31.9 · COLO 40.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Colorado has the better starters

Position by position: San Diego 0, Colorado 1, even 4
San DiegoBetterColorado
G M. Worthy TR16.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 3 ast Score 72
COLOSmall
G B. Hargress14.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 93
G D. Hill TR14.2 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92
Even
F J. Neely TR17.7 pts · 11.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 96
G D. Stromer TR6.4 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 29
Even
F I. Niagu TR4.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
F T. McMorris TR7.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 47
No call
F D. Gomez TR5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
F A. Munoz TR12.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 56
Even
C N. Feddersen TR9 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 59
San DiegoBetterColorado
USD offense127th of 366 · -3.5
Even
COLO defense80th of 366 · +0.3
USD defense189th of 366 · -4.4
COLOBig
COLO offense54th of 366 · +3.2
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
COLOSmall
Backcourt+3.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt-0.4 · 2 players
COLOBig
Frontcourt+5.3 · 4 players
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
USDBig
Bench-2.7 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUSD betterCOLO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
San Diego
Guards
M. Worthy35 min · TRD. Hill27 min · TRD. Stromer23 min · TRC. Versher2 minN. Del Bosque1 minB. RomanNew
Forwards
T. McMorris26 min · TRA. Munoz25 min · TRJ. Roberto Tanchyn19 min · TRS. Konneh13 min · TRA. Aviles11 minJ. HillNew
Colorado
Guards
B. Hargress33 minJ. Sanders18 minJ. Holland18 minI. Inman10 minA. JonesNewR. PortelaNew
Forwards
J. Neely33 min · TRI. Niagu21 min · TRD. Gomez20 min · TRN. Randall1 minG. MalualNewC. HillNew
Centers
N. Feddersen21 min · TRE. JacobsenNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USDCOLO
Scoring
72.8 #228Points per game80.2 #63
1.05 #251Points per possession1.13 #80
69.6 #139Pace (possessions)71.0 #76
Shooting
51.2 #185Effective FG%52.9 #108
34.6 #1413-point %35.1 #104
43.7 #963-point attempt rate35.2 #267
25.8 #358Free throw rate36.6 #139
Possessions
17.6 #242Turnover rate14.7 #46
28.1 #262Offensive rebound rate29.0 #235
15.4 #68Assists per game15.4 #67
Defense
78.8 #290Points allowed79.8 #313
1.13 #286Points allowed per possession1.12 #272
54.7 #320Opponent effective FG%52.6 #243
32.7 #100Opponent 3-point %36.3 #319
18.8 #55Turnovers forced15.2 #267
65.5 #328Defensive rebound rate70.4 #144
7.7 #65Steals per game6.3 #196
2.6 #294Blocks per game3.3 #170
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

San Diego

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Seattle U56–58
  • Wvs LMU66–62
  • L@ Portland74–87
  • L@ Oregon St82–92
  • Lvs LMU65–77

A week or more of rest.

Colorado

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma86–90
  • Lvs Oklahoma St83–92
  • Lvs Arizona79–89
  • W@ Utah92–78
  • L@ Houston62–102

A week or more of rest.