Creighton Bluejays at Kansas State Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 9:00 PM ETBramlage Coliseum · at Kansas St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Creighton and Kansas St
CREI	This season	KSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CREI 80–76 · win probability CREI 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CREI has more of the edges

CREI 4, KSU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

KSUSmall

Three-pointers

CREI hits 34.1% and allows 35.1%; KSU hits 36.4% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 48.2% and 40.9% of their shots

CREISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CREI 28.3, KSU 26.9. Allowed: CREI 24.8, KSU 35.2

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: CREI plays 68.9 a game (187th fastest), KSU 73.8 (11th). Faster games mean more points

CREISmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CREI 53%, KSU 7%. Transfers in: CREI 6, KSU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CREISmall

CREI offense vs KSU defense

Offense 33rd of 366 against a defense 97th, on the model’s ratings

KSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CREI 16.4%, KSU 17.4%. Forced: CREI 13.7%, KSU 17.1%

CREISmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CREI 26.9%, KSU 29.2%. Defensive: CREI 70.5%, KSU 66.0%

KSUSmall

Home court

KSU at home. This season: KSU 0-0 at home, CREI 0-0 away

Even

KSU offense vs CREI defense

Offense 74th of 366 against a defense 43rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CREI 53.0 and allows 51.1; KSU 53.3 and allows 52.5

Context

Schedule so far

CREI has played the 40th-hardest schedule, KSU the 43rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CREI -4.4	—
Total	—	156.1	—
Projected score	—	CREI 80.3 · KSU 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CREI -2.8	—
1H total	73.0	—
1H projected score	CREI 37.9 · KSU 35.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CREI LWLWL	11-23	32%	5-7	—
KSU LLWLL	12-20	38%	5-13	—

Venue/role: CREI away; KSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CREI UUUUO	16-18	47%	16-18
KSU UUUOO	16-16	50%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CREI	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
KSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Creighton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs IOWA	W92–84LO
Nov 18	vs BCU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs MICH	No recent meeting

Kansas St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	vs MONT	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs CAM	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs GONZ	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CREI 0–1 KSUKSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CREI 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 13, 2025-26	KSU 83 @ CREI 76	CREI -4.5	KSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Creighton

34 games played

Straight up

16-18

47% wins

Against the spread

11-23

32% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1847%

W L W W L L W W L L W W W W L W L W L W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2332%

L L W L L L W W L L W W W L W W L L L L L L L L L L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

U U U U O U U O U U O U O O U O O O O O U O U U O O O U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsSDAK	W 92-76	-29.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	@GONZ	L 63-90	+12.5	L −14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	vsUMES	W 84-45	-33.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 19	vsUND	W 75-60	-29.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 24	vsBAY	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 155
Nov 25	vsISU	L 60-78	+9.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 138
Nov 27	vsORE	W 76-66	-2.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsNICH	W 96-76	-18.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 172
Dec 7	@NEB	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsKSU	L 76-83	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 17	@XAV	W 98-57	+2.5	W +43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	vsMARQ	W 84-63	-6.5	W +14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 22	vsUTU	W 92-69	-19.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsBTLR	W 89-85	-5.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 174
Jan 4	@HALL	L 54-56	+3.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 110
Jan 7	@VILL	W 76-72	+4.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsSJU	L 73-90	+2.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 163
Jan 13	vsGTWN	W 86-83	-8.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Jan 16	@PROV	L 88-93	-2.5	L −7.5	161.5	O 181
Jan 21	vsXAV	W 94-93	-8.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 187
Jan 27	@MARQ	L 62-86	-1.5	L −25.5	154.5	U 148
Jan 31	vsCONN	L 58-85	+6.5	L −20.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 4	@GTWN	L 68-76	+1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 144
Feb 7	vsHALL	W 69-68	-1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 11	@DEP	L 71-72	-1.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 143
Feb 14	vsVILL	L 69-80	+1.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 18	@CONN	W 91-84	+15.5	W +22.5	143.5	O 175
Feb 21	@SJU	L 52-81	+12.5	L −16.5	156.5	U 133
Feb 25	vsDEP	L 71-72	-3.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 28	vsPROV	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	166.5	U 155
Mar 4	@BTLR	W 76-59	+2.5	W +19.5	155.5	U 135
Mar 12	vsHALL	L 61-72	+2.5	L −8.5	136.5	U 133
Apr 2	vsRUTG	W 82-69	-4.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 151
Apr 4	vsWVU	L 70-87	+1.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−13.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−14.5

UMES

W 84-45

+5.5

UND

W 75-60

−14.5

BAY

L 74-81

−3.5

ISU

L 60-78

−8.5

ORE

W 76-66

+7.5

NICH

W 96-76

+1.5

NEB

L 50-71

−15.5

KSU

L 76-83

−11.5

XAV

W 98-57

+43.5

MARQ

W 84-63

+14.5

UTU

W 92-69

+3.5

BTLR

W 89-85

−1.5

HALL

L 54-56

+1.5

VILL

W 76-72

+8.5

SJU

L 73-90

−14.5

GTWN

W 86-83

−5.5

PROV

L 88-93

−7.5

XAV

W 94-93

−7.5

MARQ

L 62-86

−25.5

CONN

L 58-85

−20.5

GTWN

L 68-76

−6.5

HALL

W 69-68

−0.5

DEP

L 71-72

−2.5

VILL

L 69-80

−9.5

CONN

W 91-84

+22.5

SJU

L 52-81

−16.5

DEP

L 71-72

−4.5

PROV

L 76-79

−6.5

BTLR

W 76-59

+19.5

HALL

L 61-72

−8.5

RUTG

W 82-69

+8.5

WVU

L 70-87

−15.5

covered 11didn’t cover 23avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−1.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−11.5

UMES

W 84-45

−6.5

UND

W 75-60

−20.5

BAY

L 74-81

+0.5

ISU

L 60-78

−14.5

ORE

W 76-66

−8.5

NICH

W 96-76

+28.5

NEB

L 50-71

−34.5

KSU

L 76-83

−0.5

XAV

W 98-57

+3.5

MARQ

W 84-63

−4.5

UTU

W 92-69

+13.5

BTLR

W 89-85

+17.5

HALL

L 54-56

−33.5

VILL

W 76-72

+5.5

SJU

L 73-90

+10.5

GTWN

W 86-83

+21.5

PROV

L 88-93

+19.5

XAV

W 94-93

+31.5

MARQ

L 62-86

−6.5

CONN

L 58-85

+0.5

GTWN

L 68-76

−2.5

HALL

W 69-68

−3.5

DEP

L 71-72

+1.5

VILL

L 69-80

+3.5

CONN

W 91-84

+31.5

SJU

L 52-81

−23.5

DEP

L 71-72

+0.5

PROV

L 76-79

−11.5

BTLR

W 76-59

−20.5

HALL

L 61-72

−3.5

RUTG

W 82-69

−0.5

WVU

L 70-87

+19.5

over 16under 18avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas St

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W W L L L L W W W W L L L L L W L L L L L L W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

W L L L W W L L L W W W L L L L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

O O O O O O U U U U U O O U O O U U U U U U O O U O O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCG	W 93-64	-18.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsBELL	W 98-71	-28.5	L −1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 13	vsCAL	W 99-96	-6.5	L −3.5	164.5	O 195
Nov 17	vsTLSA	W 84-83	-12.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 20	vsMSST	W 98-77	+2.5	W +23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsNEB	L 85-86	+1.5	W +0.5	168.5	O 171
Nov 25	@IU	L 69-86	+10.5	L −6.5	164.5	U 155
Dec 1	vsBGSU	L 66-82	-12.5	L −28.5	159.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsHALL	L 67-78	-2.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 8	vsMVSU	W 108-49	-38.5	W +20.5	160.5	U 157
Dec 13	@CREI	W 83-76	+4.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 20	vsSDAK	W 106-76	-21.5	W +8.5	176.5	O 182
Dec 28	vsULM	W 94-85	-32.5	L −23.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsBYU	L 73-83	+7.5	L −2.5	174.5	U 156
Jan 7	@ARIZ	L 76-101	+17.5	L −7.5	171.5	O 177
Jan 10	@ASU	L 84-87	+1.5	L −1.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 14	vsUCF	L 73-82	-2.5	L −11.5	170.5	U 155
Jan 17	@OKST	L 83-84	+2.5	W +1.5	175.5	U 167
Jan 20	vsUTAH	W 81-78	-10.5	L −7.5	168.5	U 159
Jan 24	vsKU	L 62-86	+4.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 148
Jan 27	@WVU	L 54-59	+7.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 113
Feb 1	vsISU	L 61-95	+12.5	L −21.5	156.5	U 156
Feb 7	@TCU	L 82-84	+9.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 166
Feb 11	vsCIN	L 62-91	+2.5	L −26.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 14	@HOU	L 64-78	+22.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 17	vsBAY	W 90-74	+3.5	W +19.5	159.5	O 164
Feb 21	@TTU	L 72-100	+12.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 172
Feb 25	@COLO	L 70-79	+5.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 149
Feb 28	vsTCU	L 68-77	+3.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsWVU	W 65-63	+3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 7	@KU	L 85-104	+17.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 189
Mar 10	vsBYU	L 91-105	+11.5	L −2.5	168.5	O 196

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+10.5

BELL

W 98-71

−1.5

CAL

W 99-96

−3.5

TLSA

W 84-83

−11.5

MSST

W 98-77

+23.5

NEB

L 85-86

+0.5

L 69-86

−6.5

BGSU

L 66-82

−28.5

HALL

L 67-78

−13.5

MVSU

W 108-49

+20.5

CREI

W 83-76

+11.5

SDAK

W 106-76

+8.5

ULM

W 94-85

−23.5

BYU

L 73-83

−2.5

ARIZ

L 76-101

−7.5

ASU

L 84-87

−1.5

UCF

L 73-82

−11.5

OKST

L 83-84

+1.5

UTAH

W 81-78

−7.5

L 62-86

−19.5

WVU

L 54-59

+2.5

ISU

L 61-95

−21.5

TCU

L 82-84

+7.5

CIN

L 62-91

−26.5

HOU

L 64-78

+8.5

BAY

W 90-74

+19.5

TTU

L 72-100

−15.5

COLO

L 70-79

−3.5

TCU

L 68-77

−5.5

WVU

W 65-63

+5.5

L 85-104

−1.5

BYU

L 91-105

−2.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+8.5

BELL

W 98-71

+0.5

CAL

W 99-96

+30.5

TLSA

W 84-83

+6.5

MSST

W 98-77

+10.5

NEB

L 85-86

+2.5

L 69-86

−9.5

BGSU

L 66-82

−11.5

HALL

L 67-78

−3.5

MVSU

W 108-49

−3.5

CREI

W 83-76

−0.5

SDAK

W 106-76

+5.5

ULM

W 94-85

+9.5

BYU

L 73-83

−18.5

ARIZ

L 76-101

+5.5

ASU

L 84-87

+1.5

UCF

L 73-82

−15.5

OKST

L 83-84

−8.5

UTAH

W 81-78

−9.5

L 62-86

−10.5

WVU

L 54-59

−33.5

ISU

L 61-95

−0.5

TCU

L 82-84

+10.5

CIN

L 62-91

+5.5

HOU

L 64-78

−2.5

BAY

W 90-74

+4.5

TTU

L 72-100

+13.5

COLO

L 70-79

−14.5

TCU

L 68-77

−14.5

WVU

W 65-63

−15.5

L 85-104

+31.5

BYU

L 91-105

+27.5

over 16under 16avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Creighton has the better starters

Position by position: Creighton 5, Kansas St 0, even 0

CreightonBetterKansas St

G B. Robinson TR17.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 6.7 ast Score 86

CREISmall

G B. Rechsteiner TR12 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71

G W. Enis TR16.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72

CREISmall

G J. Schutt TR7.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 39

F J. Green10.5 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 92

CREIBig

G M. Wheeler TR8.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 50

F O. Erhunmwunse TR6.9 pts · 8.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 74

CREISmall

F D. Lindsay TR5.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 51

C F. King TR13.1 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92

CREIBig

F I. Abraham TR4.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

CreightonBetterKansas St

CREI offense33rd of 366 · +5.5

CREISmall

KSU defense97th of 366 · -0.7

CREI defense43rd of 366 · +2.7

Even

KSU offense74th of 366 · +1.4

Backcourt+3.2 · 2 players

CREIBig

Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt+8.6 · 3 players

CREIBig

Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players

Bench+5.7 · 5 players

CREIBig

Bench-0.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCREI betterKSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Creighton

Guards

B. Robinson36 min · TRW. Enis34 min · TRB. Davis23 min · TRA. Swartz22 minH. Greer14 minK. Edwards7 min · TR

Forwards

J. Green28 minO. Erhunmwunse25 min · TRJ. McAndrew21 minI. Traudt19 minT. Carter-GivensNew

Centers

F. King25 min · TRW. RosaNew

Kansas St

Guards

B. Rechsteiner28 min · TRJ. Schutt25 min · TRM. Wheeler22 min · TRA. Kostic14 minJ. AlexanderNew

Forwards

D. Lindsay21 min · TRI. Abraham20 min · TRT. Malovec15 min · TRP. N'Diaye9 min · TRB. Vice6 min · TRM. GilhoolNew

Centers

J. Rock13 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CREI75.2 #159

KSU79.6 #74

Points per possession

CREI1.09 #156

KSU1.08 #191

Pace (possessions)

CREI68.9 #187

KSU73.8 #11

Shooting

Effective FG%

CREI53.0 #103

KSU53.3 #88

3-point %

CREI34.1 #167

KSU36.4 #43

3-point attempt rate

CREI48.2 #23

KSU40.9 #148

Free throw rate

CREI28.3 #340

KSU26.9 #351

Possessions

Turnover rate

CREI16.4 #161

KSU17.4 #233

Offensive rebound rate

CREI26.9 #301

KSU29.2 #229

Assists per game

CREI15.4 #72

KSU16.8 #29

Defense

Points allowed

CREI75.2 #196

KSU81.8 #339

Points allowed per possession

CREI1.09 #197

KSU1.11 #244

Opponent effective FG%

CREI51.1 #165

KSU52.5 #239

Opponent 3-point %

CREI35.1 #256

KSU33.7 #166

Turnovers forced

CREI13.7 #341

KSU17.1 #145

Defensive rebound rate

CREI70.5 #132

KSU66.0 #317

Steals per game

CREI5.7 #278

KSU7.0 #121

Blocks per game

CREI2.8 #255

KSU3.5 #137

CREI		KSU
Scoring
75.2 #159	Points per game	79.6 #74
1.09 #156	Points per possession	1.08 #191
68.9 #187	Pace (possessions)	73.8 #11
Shooting
53.0 #103	Effective FG%	53.3 #88
34.1 #167	3-point %	36.4 #43
48.2 #23	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #148
28.3 #340	Free throw rate	26.9 #351
Possessions
16.4 #161	Turnover rate	17.4 #233
26.9 #301	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #229
15.4 #72	Assists per game	16.8 #29
Defense
75.2 #196	Points allowed	81.8 #339
1.09 #197	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #244
51.1 #165	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #239
35.1 #256	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #166
13.7 #341	Turnovers forced	17.1 #145
70.5 #132	Defensive rebound rate	66.0 #317
5.7 #278	Steals per game	7.0 #121
2.8 #255	Blocks per game	3.5 #137

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Creighton

16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia70–87
Wvs Rutgers82–69
Lvs Seton Hall61–72
W@ Butler76–59
Lvs Providence76–79

A week or more of rest.

Kansas St

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs BYU91–105
L@ Kansas85–104
Wvs West Virginia65–63
Lvs TCU68–77
L@ Colorado70–79

A week or more of rest.

Creighton Bluejays at Kansas State Wildcats

What could decide it: CREI has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Creighton

Kansas St

Creighton has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Creighton

Kansas St