Kansas Jayhawks vs Kentucky Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 9:30 PM ETUnited Center · Neutral site

#16KUKansas AP #17

#19UKKentucky AP #23

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kansas and Kentucky
KU	This season	UK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KU 80–78 · win probability KU 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 157.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UK has more of the edges

KU 0, UK 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UKSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: KU 29.3%, UK 33.2%. Defensive: KU 70.1%, UK 70.0%

UKSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: KU 15.6%, UK 15.4%. Forced: KU 13.8%, UK 15.5%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: KU plays 68.8 a game (193rd fastest), UK 69.9 (123rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: KU 9%, UK 26%. Transfers in: KU 5, UK 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: KU 32.2, UK 37.4. Allowed: KU 27.4, UK 36.4

Even

Three-pointers

KU hits 34.6% and allows 30.6%; UK hits 34.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 35.2% and 39.7% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: KU 51.2 and allows 45.0; UK 53.4 and allows 48.9

Even

KU offense vs UK defense

Offense 17th of 366 against a defense 32nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Context

Schedule so far

KU has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, UK the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

UK offense vs KU defense

Offense 13th of 366 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	KU -1.7	—
Total	—	157.5	—
Projected score	—	KU 79.6 · UK 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KU -1.1	—
1H total	73.6	—
1H projected score	KU 37.4 · UK 36.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
KU WWLLW	21-14	60%	6-3	—
UK LWWWL	18-18	50%	4-4	—

Venue/role: KU neutral site; UK neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU OOUUU	11-24	31%	24-11
UK OOUOU	18-18	50%	22-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
UK	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs UNLV	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs DEN	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs VILL	W81–65WO

Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs NAU	No recent meeting
Nov 16	vs GRAM	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs IU	W72–60WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

KU 2–1 UKKU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · KU has won the last 2 meetings · KU 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 14, 2023-24	UK 84 vs KU 89	KU -6.5	UK W
Jan 28, 2022-23	KU 77 @ UK 68	UK -2.5	KU W
Jan 29, 2021-22	UK 80 @ KU 62	KU -5	UK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas

35 games played

Straight up

24-11

69% wins

Against the spread

21-14

60% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1169%

W L W W L W W W L W W W W L W L W W W W W W W W L W L W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1460%

W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L W L W L W L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-2431%

U O U U U U U O U U O U O U O O U U U U O U U O U U O U U U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGB	W 94-51	-30.5	W +12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@UNC	L 74-87	+2.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsAMCC	W 77-46	-25.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 123
Nov 15	vsPRIN	W 76-57	-22.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsDUKE	L 66-78	+10.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 24	vsND	W 71-61	-5.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 132
Nov 25	vsSYR	W 71-60	-4.5	W +6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsTENN	W 81-76	+7.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 2	vsCONN	L 56-61	+3.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 117
Dec 7	vsMIZ	W 80-60	-5.5	W +14.5	150.5	U 140
Dec 13	@NCSU	W 77-76	+1.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 153
Dec 16	vsTOW	W 73-49	-14.5	W +9.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 22	vsDAV	W 90-61	-14.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 3	@UCF	L 75-81	-4.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 156
Jan 6	vsTCU	W 104-100	-6.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 204
Jan 10	@WVU	L 75-86	-2.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 13	vsISU	W 84-63	+3.5	W +24.5	152.5	U 147
Jan 16	vsBAY	W 80-62	-7.5	W +10.5	156.5	U 142
Jan 20	@COLO	W 75-69	-4.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 144
Jan 24	@KSU	W 86-62	-4.5	W +19.5	158.5	U 148
Jan 31	vsBYU	W 90-82	-2.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 172
Feb 2	@TTU	W 64-61	+3.5	W +6.5	155.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsUTAH	W 71-59	-18.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 130
Feb 9	vsARIZ	W 82-78	+5.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 160
Feb 14	@ISU	L 56-74	+7.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 130
Feb 18	@OKST	W 81-69	-7.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 21	vsCIN	L 68-84	-8.5	L −24.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 23	vsHOU	W 69-56	+2.5	W +15.5	138.5	U 125
Feb 28	@ARIZ	L 61-84	+9.5	L −13.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 3	@ASU	L 60-70	-5.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 130
Mar 7	vsKSU	W 104-85	-17.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 189
Mar 12	vsTCU	W 78-73	-4.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 151
Mar 13	vsHOU	L 47-69	+5.5	L −16.5	139.5	U 116
Mar 20	vsCBU	W 68-60	-14.5	L −6.5	142.5	U 128
Mar 22	vsSJU	L 65-67	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-51

+12.5

UNC

L 74-87

−10.5

AMCC

W 77-46

+5.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−3.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−1.5

W 71-61

+4.5

SYR

W 71-60

+6.5

TENN

W 81-76

+12.5

CONN

L 56-61

−1.5

MIZ

W 80-60

+14.5

NCSU

W 77-76

+2.5

TOW

W 73-49

+9.5

DAV

W 90-61

+14.5

UCF

L 75-81

−10.5

TCU

W 104-100

−2.5

WVU

L 75-86

−13.5

ISU

W 84-63

+24.5

BAY

W 80-62

+10.5

COLO

W 75-69

+1.5

KSU

W 86-62

+19.5

BYU

W 90-82

+5.5

TTU

W 64-61

+6.5

UTAH

W 71-59

−6.5

ARIZ

W 82-78

+9.5

ISU

L 56-74

−10.5

OKST

W 81-69

+4.5

CIN

L 68-84

−24.5

HOU

W 69-56

+15.5

ARIZ

L 61-84

−13.5

ASU

L 60-70

−15.5

KSU

W 104-85

+1.5

TCU

W 78-73

+0.5

HOU

L 47-69

−16.5

CBU

W 68-60

−6.5

SJU

L 65-67

+1.5

covered 21didn’t cover 14avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-51

−7.5

UNC

L 74-87

+1.5

AMCC

W 77-46

−22.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−11.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−5.5

W 71-61

−11.5

SYR

W 71-60

−13.5

TENN

W 81-76

+16.5

CONN

L 56-61

−24.5

MIZ

W 80-60

−10.5

NCSU

W 77-76

+4.5

TOW

W 73-49

−15.5

DAV

W 90-61

+11.5

UCF

L 75-81

−1.5

TCU

W 104-100

+60.5

WVU

L 75-86

+21.5

ISU

W 84-63

−5.5

BAY

W 80-62

−14.5

COLO

W 75-69

−11.5

KSU

W 86-62

−10.5

BYU

W 90-82

+12.5

TTU

W 64-61

−30.5

UTAH

W 71-59

−20.5

ARIZ

W 82-78

+7.5

ISU

L 56-74

−17.5

OKST

W 81-69

−8.5

CIN

L 68-84

+12.5

HOU

W 69-56

−13.5

ARIZ

L 61-84

−6.5

ASU

L 60-70

−21.5

KSU

W 104-85

+31.5

TCU

W 78-73

+4.5

HOU

L 47-69

−23.5

CBU

W 68-60

−14.5

SJU

L 65-67

−12.5

over 11under 24avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kentucky

36 games played

Straight up

22-14

61% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-18

50% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1461%

W W L W L W W L L W W W W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

L W L W L W W L L L W W L L L W L W L L L W W W W L W W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1850%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O U U O U O O U U O O U O O U U O O U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 14	vsEIU	W 99-53	-35.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 18	vsMSU	L 66-83	-3.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsL-MD	W 88-46	-35.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 26	vsTNTC	W 104-54	-37.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsUNC	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 131
Dec 5	vsGONZ	L 59-94	+5.5	L −29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 9	vsNCCU	W 103-67	-42.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 13	vsIU	W 72-60	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsSJU	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 144
Dec 23	vsBELL	W 99-85	-34.5	L −20.5	152.5	O 184
Jan 3	@ALA	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	173.5	U 163
Jan 7	vsMIZ	L 68-73	-12.5	L −17.5	150.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsMSST	W 92-68	-10.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 14	@LSU	W 75-74	-3.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 149
Jan 17	@TENN	W 80-78	+6.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsTEX	W 85-80	-7.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 24	vsMISS	W 72-63	-11.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 27	@VAN	L 55-80	+5.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 135
Jan 31	@ARK	W 85-77	+6.5	W +14.5	159.5	O 162
Feb 4	vsOU	W 94-78	-8.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 172
Feb 7	vsTENN	W 74-71	-1.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 145
Feb 14	@FLA	L 83-92	+12.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 175
Feb 17	vsUGA	L 78-86	-6.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 21	@AUB	L 74-75	+3.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 149
Feb 24	@SC	W 72-63	-7.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsVAN	W 91-77	-1.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 168
Mar 3	@TA&M	L 85-96	+1.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 181
Mar 7	vsFLA	L 77-84	+5.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 161
Mar 11	vsLSU	W 87-82	-8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 169
Mar 12	vsMIZ	W 78-72	-2.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 150
Mar 13	vsFLA	L 63-71	+10.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 20	vsSCU	W 89-84	-3.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 22	vsISU	L 63-82	+5.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

EIU

W 99-53

+10.5

MSU

L 66-83

−20.5

L-MD

W 88-46

+6.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+12.5

UNC

L 64-67

−10.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−29.5

NCCU

W 103-67

−6.5

W 72-60

+8.5

SJU

W 78-66

+10.5

BELL

W 99-85

−20.5

ALA

L 74-89

−9.5

MIZ

L 68-73

−17.5

MSST

W 92-68

+13.5

LSU

W 75-74

−2.5

TENN

W 80-78

+8.5

TEX

W 85-80

−2.5

MISS

W 72-63

−2.5

VAN

L 55-80

−19.5

ARK

W 85-77

+14.5

W 94-78

+7.5

TENN

W 74-71

+1.5

FLA

L 83-92

+3.5

UGA

L 78-86

−14.5

AUB

L 74-75

+2.5

W 72-63

+1.5

VAN

W 91-77

+12.5

TA&M

L 85-96

−9.5

FLA

L 77-84

−1.5

LSU

W 87-82

−3.5

MIZ

W 78-72

+3.5

FLA

L 63-71

+2.5

SCU

W 89-84

+1.5

ISU

L 63-82

−13.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

EIU

W 99-53

+4.5

MSU

L 66-83

−3.5

L-MD

W 88-46

−25.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+0.5

UNC

L 64-67

−32.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−6.5

NCCU

W 103-67

+21.5

W 72-60

−24.5

SJU

W 78-66

−10.5

BELL

W 99-85

+31.5

ALA

L 74-89

−10.5

MIZ

L 68-73

−9.5

MSST

W 92-68

+7.5

LSU

W 75-74

−2.5

TENN

W 80-78

+12.5

TEX

W 85-80

+12.5

MISS

W 72-63

−10.5

VAN

L 55-80

−20.5

ARK

W 85-77

+2.5

W 94-78

+19.5

TENN

W 74-71

−2.5

FLA

L 83-92

+20.5

UGA

L 78-86

+2.5

AUB

L 74-75

−4.5

W 72-63

−16.5

VAN

W 91-77

+10.5

TA&M

L 85-96

+18.5

FLA

L 77-84

−1.5

LSU

W 87-82

+17.5

MIZ

W 78-72

+1.5

FLA

L 63-71

−27.5

SCU

W 89-84

+15.5

ISU

L 63-82

−1.5

over 18under 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas has the better starters

Position by position: Kansas 1, Kentucky 0, even 4

KansasBetterKentucky

G L. Blyden TR16.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.5 ast Score 85

Even

G A. Wilkins TR18.2 pts · 2 reb · 4.7 ast Score 81

G D. Parker TR18.6 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94

Even

G Z. Diallo TR15.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96

F K. Dawes TR12.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91

KUBig

G J. Morton TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 48

F T. Kaufman-Renn TR14.2 pts · 8.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 98

Even

F M. Momcilovic TR16.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 97

C C. Reeves TR11 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 94

Even

F J. McBride TR15.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 87

KansasBetterKentucky

KU offense17th of 366 · +8.6

Even

UK defense32nd of 366 · +3.5

KU defense15th of 366 · +6.3

Even

UK offense13th of 366 · +9.5

Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+13.0 · 3 players

KUBig

Frontcourt+8.1 · 2 players

Bench+0.1 · 3 players

UKBig

Bench+5.1 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestKU betterUK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kansas

Guards

L. Blyden34 min · TRD. Parker30 min · TRK. Rosario12 minW. Thengvall2 minT. StokesNewT. PerryNew

Forwards

K. Dawes31 min · TRT. Kaufman-Renn28 min · TRD. AdkinsNewA. RichmondNewG. MordiniNew

Centers

C. Reeves21 min · TRP. Mbiya5 min

Kentucky

Guards

A. Wilkins30 min · TRZ. Diallo30 min · TRJ. Morton25 min · TRK. Williams19 minM. WilliamsNewZ. HawthorneNew

Forwards

M. Momcilovic30 min · TRJ. McBride27 min · TRT. Noah11 minR. PotterNewO. N'DiayeNewB. HawthorneNew

Centers

F. Kepnang23 min · TRM. Moreno23 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

KU75.1 #161

UK80.5 #55

Points per possession

KU1.09 #152

UK1.15 #57

Pace (possessions)

KU68.8 #193

UK69.9 #123

Shooting

Effective FG%

KU51.2 #186

UK53.4 #87

3-point %

KU34.6 #139

UK34.2 #158

3-point attempt rate

KU35.2 #268

UK39.7 #180

Free throw rate

KU32.2 #255

UK37.4 #119

Possessions

Turnover rate

KU15.6 #111

UK15.4 #98

Offensive rebound rate

KU29.3 #227

UK33.2 #84

Assists per game

KU13.9 #150

UK15.9 #50

Defense

Points allowed

KU69.1 #47

UK74.3 #167

Points allowed per possession

KU1.00 #28

UK1.06 #115

Opponent effective FG%

KU45.0 #2

UK48.9 #63

Opponent 3-point %

KU30.6 #24

UK31.8 #55

Turnovers forced

KU13.8 #340

UK15.5 #248

Defensive rebound rate

KU70.1 #152

UK70.0 #158

Steals per game

KU5.4 #310

UK7.0 #123

Blocks per game

KU5.8 #6

UK4.6 #33

KU		UK
Scoring
75.1 #161	Points per game	80.5 #55
1.09 #152	Points per possession	1.15 #57
68.8 #193	Pace (possessions)	69.9 #123
Shooting
51.2 #186	Effective FG%	53.4 #87
34.6 #139	3-point %	34.2 #158
35.2 #268	3-point attempt rate	39.7 #180
32.2 #255	Free throw rate	37.4 #119
Possessions
15.6 #111	Turnover rate	15.4 #98
29.3 #227	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #84
13.9 #150	Assists per game	15.9 #50
Defense
69.1 #47	Points allowed	74.3 #167
1.00 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #115
45.0 #2	Opponent effective FG%	48.9 #63
30.6 #24	Opponent 3-point %	31.8 #55
13.8 #340	Turnovers forced	15.5 #248
70.1 #152	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #158
5.4 #310	Steals per game	7.0 #123
5.8 #6	Blocks per game	4.6 #33

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kansas

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs St John's65–67
Wvs CA Baptist68–60
Lvs Houston47–69
Wvs TCU78–73
Wvs Kansas St104–85

A week or more of rest.

Kentucky

22-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa State63–82
Wvs Santa Clara89–84
Lvs Florida63–71
Wvs Missouri78–72
Wvs LSU87–82

A week or more of rest.

Kansas Jayhawks vs Kentucky Wildcats

What could decide it: UK has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas

Kentucky

Kansas has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kansas

Kentucky