Montana Grizzlies at San Francisco Dons: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 10:00 PM ETThe Sobrato Center · at San Francisco

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Montana and San Francisco
MONT	This season	SF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SF 78–70 · win probability SF 76%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SF has more of the edges

MONT 3, SF 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

MONT has played the 250th-hardest schedule, SF the 98th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SFBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MONT 20.7%, SF 31.4%. Defensive: MONT 70.4%, SF 71.0%

SFBig

SF offense vs MONT defense

Offense 178th of 366 against a defense 294th, on the model’s ratings

MONTSmall

Three-pointers

MONT hits 36.6% and allows 32.3%; SF hits 34.6% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 41.8% and 46.1% of their shots

SFSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MONT 19.5%, SF 15.9%. Forced: MONT 14.3%, SF 14.1%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: MONT plays 71.1 a game (72nd fastest), SF 67.3 (271st). Faster games mean more points

SFSmall

MONT offense vs SF defense

Offense 256th of 366 against a defense 165th, on the model’s ratings

MONTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MONT 55.8 and allows 50.5; SF 51.3 and allows 50.8

SFSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MONT 36.8, SF 40.1. Allowed: MONT 32.6, SF 29.6

MONTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MONT 39%, SF 3%. Transfers in: MONT 0, SF 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

SFSmall

Home court

SF at home. This season: SF 0-0 at home, MONT 0-0 away

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SF -8.2	—
Total	—	148.1	—
Projected score	—	MONT 70 · SF 78.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SF -4.7	—
1H total	69.3	—
1H projected score	MONT 32.3 · SF 37	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MONT WLWWL	16-14	53%	6-8	—
SF LLWWL	14-18	44%	5-10	—

Venue/role: MONT away; SF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MONT OUOOU	14-16	47%	15-15
SF UOUOO	17-15	53%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MONT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
SF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Montana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ UND	W79–75LU
Nov 16	@ KSU	No recent meeting
Nov 30	@ ASU	No recent meeting

San Francisco

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs PRST	W80–70LU
Nov 18	vs UL	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs NEV	L65–81LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MONT 0–1 SFSF leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MONT 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2024-25	MONT 67 @ SF 71	SF -16.5	MONT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Montana

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L W W L L L L W L W W W L L W W W W L L W L L L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L W W W L L L L L W W W W L W W W W L L W L L L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1647%

O O O O U O U U U U O U U U O U U U O O U O U O U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@STAN	L 68-91	+12.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 159
Nov 11	@UNLV	W 102-93	+10.5	W +19.5	157.5	O 195
Nov 14	vsCP	W 90-82	-7.5	W +0.5	168.5	O 172
Nov 18	@TA&M	L 81-86	+17.5	W +12.5	164.5	O 167
Nov 23	vsLAM	L 63-68	-4.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 131
Nov 25	vsOAK	L 87-95	-4.5	L −12.5	162.5	O 182
Dec 3	vsNDSU	L 72-81	-3.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UND	W 79-75	-5.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 154
Dec 20	@LOU	L 54-94	+30.5	L −9.5	166.5	U 148
Jan 1	vsNAU	W 78-64	-5.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 3	vsUNCO	W 88-79	+1.5	W +10.5	161.5	O 167
Jan 8	@IDHO	W 79-73	+4.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 10	@EWU	L 65-66	+1.5	W +0.5	161.5	U 131
Jan 17	@MTST	L 67-76	+5.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 143
Jan 19	@NAU	W 98-72	-3.5	W +22.5	146.5	O 170
Jan 22	vsWEB	W 81-65	-4.5	W +11.5	157.5	U 146
Jan 24	vsIDST	W 69-60	-4.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 129
Jan 29	@PRST	W 64-60	+4.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 124
Jan 31	@SAC	L 79-86	-3.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 165
Feb 5	vsEWU	L 74-82	-5.5	L −13.5	151.5	O 156
Feb 7	vsIDHO	W 73-68	-1.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 141
Feb 14	vsMTST	L 71-82	-2.5	L −13.5	145.5	O 153
Feb 19	@IDST	L 69-73	-1.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 21	@WEB	L 72-92	+2.5	L −17.5	152.5	O 164
Feb 26	vsSAC	W 81-73	-7.5	W +0.5	161.5	U 154
Feb 28	vsPRST	W 74-68	-1.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 142
Mar 2	@UNCO	L 57-85	+5.5	L −22.5	154.5	U 142
Mar 9	vsUNCO	W 95-89	+4.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 184
Mar 10	vsPRST	W 75-72	+3.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 147
Mar 11	vsIDHO	L 66-77	+3.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STAN

L 68-91

−10.5

UNLV

W 102-93

+19.5

W 90-82

+0.5

TA&M

L 81-86

+12.5

LAM

L 63-68

−9.5

OAK

L 87-95

−12.5

NDSU

L 72-81

−12.5

UND

W 79-75

−1.5

LOU

L 54-94

−9.5

NAU

W 78-64

+8.5

UNCO

W 88-79

+10.5

IDHO

W 79-73

+10.5

EWU

L 65-66

+0.5

MTST

L 67-76

−3.5

NAU

W 98-72

+22.5

WEB

W 81-65

+11.5

IDST

W 69-60

+4.5

PRST

W 64-60

+8.5

SAC

L 79-86

−10.5

EWU

L 74-82

−13.5

IDHO

W 73-68

+3.5

MTST

L 71-82

−13.5

IDST

L 69-73

−5.5

WEB

L 72-92

−17.5

SAC

W 81-73

+0.5

PRST

W 74-68

+4.5

UNCO

L 57-85

−22.5

UNCO

W 95-89

+10.5

PRST

W 75-72

+6.5

IDHO

L 66-77

−7.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STAN

L 68-91

+8.5

UNLV

W 102-93

+37.5

W 90-82

+3.5

TA&M

L 81-86

+2.5

LAM

L 63-68

−17.5

OAK

L 87-95

+19.5

NDSU

L 72-81

−0.5

UND

W 79-75

−0.5

LOU

L 54-94

−18.5

NAU

W 78-64

−7.5

UNCO

W 88-79

+5.5

IDHO

W 79-73

−2.5

EWU

L 65-66

−30.5

MTST

L 67-76

−7.5

NAU

W 98-72

+23.5

WEB

W 81-65

−11.5

IDST

W 69-60

−19.5

PRST

W 64-60

−19.5

SAC

L 79-86

+9.5

EWU

L 74-82

+4.5

IDHO

W 73-68

−11.5

MTST

L 71-82

+7.5

IDST

L 69-73

−7.5

WEB

L 72-92

+11.5

SAC

W 81-73

−7.5

PRST

W 74-68

+0.5

UNCO

L 57-85

−12.5

UNCO

W 95-89

+31.5

PRST

W 75-72

+1.5

IDHO

L 66-77

−4.5

over 14under 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Francisco

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L W W W W L L L W L W W W L W W L W L W L L W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L L W W W L L L W W W W W L L L L W L L W L W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U O O O U U U U O U O O U O O O U O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@MEM	L 70-76	+2.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 12	vsPRST	W 80-70	-13.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsBRAD	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsNWST	W 84-64	-16.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsMINN	W 77-65	+1.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsCOLO	L 69-79	-1.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsNEV	L 65-81	-5.5	L −21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 3	vsUNA	L 63-65	-16.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 7	vsMSST	W 65-62	+4.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	@SLU	L 75-85	+12.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsLUC	W 85-71	-11.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 21	vsMORG	W 94-64	-25.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 28	@SEA	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	@ORST	L 62-70	-4.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 2	vsUSD	W 74-64	-12.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 4	vsPORT	W 73-68	-11.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 8	@LMU	L 82-84	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 166
Jan 10	@PEPP	W 80-60	-7.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 140
Jan 13	vsSMC	L 68-82	+5.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 18	vsWSU	W 85-80	-5.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 165
Jan 24	@GONZ	L 66-68	+15.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 134
Jan 28	@SCU	L 73-88	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 31	vsPAC	W 87-82	-4.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 169
Feb 4	vsLMU	L 75-84	-8.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 159
Feb 7	@SMC	L 54-79	+11.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 133
Feb 12	vsORST	L 63-90	-8.5	L −35.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 15	@USD	W 92-79	-5.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 171
Feb 18	vsGONZ	L 59-80	+15.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 21	vsSCU	L 73-94	+6.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Feb 28	@PAC	W 72-61	+3.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsPORT	W 82-65	-6.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 147
Mar 8	vsORST	L 77-78	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−3.5

PRST

W 80-70

−3.5

BRAD

W 75-64

+1.5

NWST

W 84-64

+3.5

MINN

W 77-65

+13.5

COLO

L 69-79

−11.5

NEV

L 65-81

−21.5

UNA

L 63-65

−18.5

MSST

W 65-62

+7.5

SLU

L 75-85

+2.5

LUC

W 85-71

+2.5

MORG

W 94-64

+4.5

SEA

W 67-59

+10.5

ORST

L 62-70

−12.5

USD

W 74-64

−2.5

PORT

W 73-68

−6.5

LMU

L 82-84

−0.5

PEPP

W 80-60

+12.5

SMC

L 68-82

−8.5

WSU

W 85-80

−0.5

GONZ

L 66-68

+13.5

SCU

L 73-88

−5.5

PAC

W 87-82

+0.5

LMU

L 75-84

−17.5

SMC

L 54-79

−13.5

ORST

L 63-90

−35.5

USD

W 92-79

+7.5

GONZ

L 59-80

−5.5

SCU

L 73-94

−14.5

PAC

W 72-61

+14.5

PORT

W 82-65

+10.5

ORST

L 77-78

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−11.5

PRST

W 80-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 75-64

−7.5

NWST

W 84-64

+4.5

MINN

W 77-65

+1.5

COLO

L 69-79

−2.5

NEV

L 65-81

+3.5

UNA

L 63-65

−17.5

MSST

W 65-62

−23.5

SLU

L 75-85

+4.5

LUC

W 85-71

+12.5

MORG

W 94-64

+12.5

SEA

W 67-59

−20.5

ORST

L 62-70

−12.5

USD

W 74-64

−14.5

PORT

W 73-68

−6.5

LMU

L 82-84

+24.5

PEPP

W 80-60

−0.5

SMC

L 68-82

+8.5

WSU

W 85-80

+18.5

GONZ

L 66-68

−15.5

SCU

L 73-88

+10.5

PAC

W 87-82

+30.5

LMU

L 75-84

+13.5

SMC

L 54-79

−9.5

ORST

L 63-90

+12.5

USD

W 92-79

+22.5

GONZ

L 59-80

−12.5

SCU

L 73-94

+8.5

PAC

W 72-61

−9.5

PORT

W 82-65

+0.5

ORST

L 77-78

+10.5

over 17under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Montana 0, San Francisco 0, even 5

MontanaBetterSan Francisco

G T. Thompson8.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 24

No call

G A. Bashir TR2.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

G C. Anderson5.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Braccia0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

G C. Dick1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F B. Oosterbaan TR7.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31

F K. Aguino8.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48

No call

F N. Newbury NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F A. Jedkins0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

C I. Diagne TR1.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

MontanaBetterSan Francisco

MONT offense256th of 366 · -7.8

SFSmall

SF defense165th of 366 · -3.7

MONT defense294th of 366 · -7.4

SFSmall

SF offense178th of 366 · -5.5

Backcourt-3.2 · 3 players

SFSmall

Backcourt-0.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.6 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestMONT betterSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Montana

Guards

T. Thompson30 minC. Anderson10 minC. Dick9 minG. DutroNewJ. BrownNewJ. ClarkNew

Forwards

K. Aguino24 minA. Jedkins5 minJ. SandersNewC. MpianaNew

San Francisco

Guards

A. Bashir10 min · TRA. Braccia5 minW. FodeNewM. MageeNewY. VitlemNewD. BordonNew

Forwards

B. Oosterbaan25 min · TRN. NewburyNewA. TysonNewG. KnudsenNewD. WileyNewJ. PihtovsNew

Centers

I. Diagne7 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MONT75.7 #148

SF73.9 #198

Points per possession

MONT1.06 #216

SF1.10 #131

Pace (possessions)

MONT71.1 #72

SF67.3 #271

Shooting

Effective FG%

MONT55.8 #23

SF51.3 #184

3-point %

MONT36.6 #38

SF34.6 #140

3-point attempt rate

MONT41.8 #138

SF46.1 #45

Free throw rate

MONT36.8 #135

SF40.1 #59

Possessions

Turnover rate

MONT19.5 #339

SF15.9 #129

Offensive rebound rate

MONT20.7 #363

SF31.4 #148

Assists per game

MONT14.3 #125

SF13.6 #174

Defense

Points allowed

MONT77.6 #254

SF73.8 #149

Points allowed per possession

MONT1.09 #204

SF1.09 #206

Opponent effective FG%

MONT50.5 #129

SF50.8 #143

Opponent 3-point %

MONT32.3 #74

SF34.1 #187

Turnovers forced

MONT14.3 #326

SF14.1 #331

Defensive rebound rate

MONT70.4 #143

SF71.0 #105

Steals per game

MONT5.4 #306

SF5.1 #332

Blocks per game

MONT2.4 #313

SF2.9 #238

MONT		SF
Scoring
75.7 #148	Points per game	73.9 #198
1.06 #216	Points per possession	1.10 #131
71.1 #72	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #271
Shooting
55.8 #23	Effective FG%	51.3 #184
36.6 #38	3-point %	34.6 #140
41.8 #138	3-point attempt rate	46.1 #45
36.8 #135	Free throw rate	40.1 #59
Possessions
19.5 #339	Turnover rate	15.9 #129
20.7 #363	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #148
14.3 #125	Assists per game	13.6 #174
Defense
77.6 #254	Points allowed	73.8 #149
1.09 #204	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #206
50.5 #129	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #143
32.3 #74	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #187
14.3 #326	Turnovers forced	14.1 #331
70.4 #143	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #105
5.4 #306	Steals per game	5.1 #332
2.4 #313	Blocks per game	2.9 #238

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Montana

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Idaho66–77
Wvs Portland St75–72
Wvs N Colorado95–89
L@ N Colorado57–85
Wvs Portland St74–68

A week or more of rest.

San Francisco

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oregon St77–78
Wvs Portland82–65
W@ Pacific72–61
Lvs Santa Clara73–94
Lvs Gonzaga59–80

A week or more of rest.

Montana Grizzlies at San Francisco Dons

What could decide it: SF has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Montana

San Francisco

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Montana

San Francisco