1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. OMA @ USU
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Omaha Mavericks at Utah State Aggies

Dee Glen Smith Spectrum · at Utah State
#279OMAOmaha
@
#58USUUtah State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OMAThis seasonUSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USU 88–64 · win probability USU 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USU has more of the edges

OMA 1, USU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USUBig
USU offense vs OMA defense
Offense 53rd of 366 against a defense 306th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
OMA has played the 287th-hardest schedule, USU the 83rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
USUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OMA 16.1%, USU 15.1%. Forced: OMA 14.1%, USU 20.2%
USUBig
OMA offense vs USU defense
Offense 247th of 366 against a defense 56th, on the model’s ratings
USUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: OMA 52.2 and allows 52.7; USU 56.3 and allows 49.7
USUSmall
Home court
USU at home. This season: USU 0-0 at home, OMA 0-0 away
OMASmall
Three-pointers
OMA hits 34.0% and allows 32.9%; USU hits 34.3% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 40.9% and 40.8% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: OMA 34.5, USU 38.8. Allowed: OMA 33.6, USU 39.2
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OMA 25.5%, USU 32.7%. Defensive: OMA 71.3%, USU 67.2%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: OMA plays 68.9 a game (184th fastest), USU 68.5 (207th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OMA 23%, USU 26%. Transfers in: OMA 4, USU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USU -25.0—
Total—151.9—
Projected score—OMA 63.5 · USU 88.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSU -14.7—
1H total71.0—
1H projected scoreOMA 28.1 · USU 42.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Utah State has the better starters

Position by position: Omaha 0, Utah State 2, even 3
OmahaBetterUtah State
G G. Stubblefield9.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 64
Even
G A. Bates TR12.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.8 ast Score 62
G C. Crosby TR2.5 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 24
USUBig
G M. Falslev16.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 98
G A. Skradis0.4 pts · 0.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G D. Hall TR5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 49
F C. Dockery TR7.3 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 41
Even
G S. Callaghan TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 33
F B. Scholl3.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 26
USUBig
F W. Hornseth TR11.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
OmahaBetterUtah State
OMA offense247th of 366 · -7.5
USUBig
USU defense56th of 366 · +1.4
OMA defense306th of 366 · -7.8
USUBig
USU offense53rd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt-0.7 · 3 players
USUBig
Backcourt+2.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players
USUBig
Frontcourt+2.6 · 1 player
Bench-0.0 · 2 players
USUBig
Bench+3.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestOMA betterUSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Omaha
Guards
G. Stubblefield29 minC. Crosby9 min · TRA. Skradis2 minD. Thompson1 min · TRB. OrgilboldNewC. CurtisNew
Forwards
C. Dockery22 min · TRB. Scholl14 minJ. Bolis2 min · TRD. PleasantNewE. SheatsNewG. BakerNew
Centers
I. OndekaneNewH. BukingaNew
Utah State
Guards
A. Bates34 min · TRM. Falslev33 minD. Hall28 min · TRS. Callaghan28 min · TRB. BoeNewA. ReiserNew
Forwards
W. Hornseth27 min · TRC. Turnbull21 min · TRK. Templin19 minC. Mulholland17 min · TRK. TosiNew
Centers
S. FeltsNewB. RobertsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OMAUSU
Scoring
73.9 #202Points per game81.3 #43
1.07 #201Points per possession1.19 #24
68.9 #184Pace (possessions)68.5 #207
Shooting
52.2 #139Effective FG%56.3 #18
34.0 #1693-point %34.3 #155
40.9 #1503-point attempt rate40.8 #152
34.5 #196Free throw rate38.8 #83
Possessions
16.1 #146Turnover rate15.1 #72
25.5 #331Offensive rebound rate32.7 #97
12.1 #276Assists per game17.1 #21
Defense
77.7 #259Points allowed71.2 #78
1.13 #278Points allowed per possession1.04 #72
52.7 #258Opponent effective FG%49.7 #87
32.9 #114Opponent 3-point %34.5 #222
14.1 #333Turnovers forced20.2 #18
71.3 #90Defensive rebound rate67.2 #290
5.7 #277Steals per game8.5 #17
3.0 #234Blocks per game2.9 #252
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Omaha

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Dakota St50–74
  • Wvs South Dakota76–62
  • L@ St Thomas53–68
  • L@ South Dakota72–89
  • Wvs Oral Roberts80–71

A week or more of rest.

Utah State

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona66–78
  • Wvs Villanova86–76
  • Wvs San Diego St73–62
  • Wvs Nevada79–66
  • Wvs UNLV80–60

A week or more of rest.