1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. OAK @ UCSB
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Oakland Golden Grizzlies at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

The Thunderdome · at Santa Barbara
#204OAKOakland
@
#134UCSBSanta Barbara
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OAKThis seasonUCSB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCSB 80–72 · win probability UCSB 75%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCSB has more of the edges

OAK 2, UCSB 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
OAKBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: OAK 38.1, UCSB 36.8. Allowed: OAK 24.6, UCSB 42.4
UCSBBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OAK 31.3%, UCSB 31.0%. Defensive: OAK 65.6%, UCSB 74.5%
UCSBBig
UCSB offense vs OAK defense
Offense 150th of 366 against a defense 266th, on the model’s ratings
OAKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OAK 14.7%, UCSB 18.8%. Forced: OAK 15.1%, UCSB 16.8%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: OAK plays 71.1 a game (67th fastest), UCSB 68.2 (218th). Faster games mean more points
UCSBSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: OAK 52.7 and allows 54.7; UCSB 54.7 and allows 52.6
UCSBSmall
Three-pointers
OAK hits 34.7% and allows 34.3%; UCSB hits 37.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 34.0% and 44.1% of their shots
UCSBSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OAK 20%, UCSB 53%. Transfers in: OAK 5, UCSB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
OAK has played the 150th-hardest schedule, UCSB the 203rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCSBSmall
Home court
UCSB at home. This season: UCSB 0-0 at home, OAK 0-0 away
Even
OAK offense vs UCSB defense
Offense 159th of 366 against a defense 128th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCSB -7.8—
Total—151.8—
Projected score—OAK 72 · UCSB 79.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCSB -4.5—
1H total71.0—
1H projected scoreOAK 33.2 · UCSB 37.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Santa Barbara has the better starters

Position by position: Oakland 1, Santa Barbara 3, even 1
OaklandBetterSanta Barbara
G N. Mashhour9 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 22
UCSBSmall
G V. Vartiainen TR12.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 52
G B. Swartz TR7.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41
UCSBBig
G M. Little12.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 4.8 ast Score 91
F B. El Shakery TR11.2 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 59
Even
G C. Shaw11.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
F C. Fields TR9.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 79
OAKBig
G R. Smith TR6.6 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 43
F J. Hill TR7 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16
UCSBSmall
C E. Dibami TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 45
OaklandBetterSanta Barbara
OAK offense159th of 366 · -4.8
Even
UCSB defense128th of 366 · -2.3
OAK defense266th of 366 · -6.8
UCSBSmall
UCSB offense150th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt-3.2 · 2 players
UCSBBig
Backcourt+1.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player
Bench-1.7 · 2 players
OAKSmall
Bench-3.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestOAK betterUCSB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Oakland
Guards
N. Mashhour28 minB. Swartz21 min · TRW. Marshall12 minR. Taylor11 min · TRW. KassiNewH. MashhourNew
Forwards
B. El Shakery27 min · TRC. Fields18 min · TRJ. Hill17 min · TRN. AhnerNewC. ThompsonNewI. TheodileNew
Santa Barbara
Guards
V. Vartiainen31 min · TRM. Little30 minC. Shaw29 minR. Smith28 min · TRM. McGhee21 minL. Zuffelato4 min
Forwards
A. Chol24 min · TRM. Simcoe9 minD. Duru7 min · TRK. Keat Tong6 minK. Haughy2 minJ. Simcoe2 min
Centers
E. Dibami29 min · TRM. John WuolNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OAKUCSB
Scoring
81.6 #37Points per game76.7 #127
1.14 #66Points per possession1.13 #87
71.1 #67Pace (possessions)68.2 #218
Shooting
52.7 #114Effective FG%54.7 #47
34.7 #1313-point %37.4 #23
34.0 #2943-point attempt rate44.1 #87
38.1 #100Free throw rate36.8 #134
Possessions
14.7 #47Turnover rate18.8 #312
31.3 #152Offensive rebound rate31.0 #165
15.7 #60Assists per game14.1 #140
Defense
82.8 #344Points allowed73.7 #148
1.17 #340Points allowed per possession1.08 #156
54.7 #322Opponent effective FG%52.6 #244
34.3 #206Opponent 3-point %33.9 #177
15.1 #275Turnovers forced16.8 #170
65.6 #324Defensive rebound rate74.5 #14
7.2 #106Steals per game6.2 #216
3.7 #110Blocks per game2.3 #322
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oakland

15-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Kentucky84–85
  • Lvs Detroit Mercy89–95
  • W@ IU Indy86–74
  • Wvs Milwaukee81–70
  • Lvs Green Bay68–73

A week or more of rest.

Santa Barbara

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UC Davis73–79
  • Lvs UC San Diego63–64
  • L@ UC Irvine60–64
  • Wvs UC Riverside70–59
  • L@ Hawai'i75–78

A week or more of rest.