1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. SAM @ UNLV
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Samford Bulldogs at UNLV Rebels

Thomas & Mack Center · at UNLV
#184SAMSamford
@
#98UNLVUNLV
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SAMThis seasonUNLV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNLV 83–71 · win probability UNLV 87%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SAM 2, UNLV 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
SAM has played the 251st-hardest schedule, UNLV the 87th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNLVBig
UNLV offense vs SAM defense
Offense 90th of 366 against a defense 224th, on the model’s ratings
SAMBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SAM 41.9, UNLV 40.6. Allowed: SAM 32.9, UNLV 44.9
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SAM plays 69.3 a game (163rd fastest), UNLV 71.3 (57th). Faster games mean more points
UNLVSmall
Home court
UNLV at home. This season: UNLV 0-0 at home, SAM 0-0 away
SAMSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SAM 25.3%, UNLV 30.2%. Defensive: SAM 74.3%, UNLV 68.0%
Even
SAM offense vs UNLV defense
Offense 147th of 366 against a defense 114th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
SAM hits 35.6% and allows 36.5%; UNLV hits 35.2% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 45.7% and 36.4% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SAM 13.4%, UNLV 17.1%. Forced: SAM 13.0%, UNLV 17.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SAM 41%, UNLV 43%. Transfers in: SAM 5, UNLV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SAM 53.1 and allows 51.9; UNLV 53.5 and allows 52.3
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNLV -12.8—
Total—153.8—
Projected score—SAM 70.5 · UNLV 83.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNLV -7.5—
1H total71.9—
1H projected scoreSAM 32.2 · UNLV 39.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UNLV has the better starters

Position by position: Samford 1, UNLV 4, even 0
SamfordBetterUNLV
G N. George TR11.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 25
UNLVBig
G D. Williams15.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 64
G C. Norris8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2 ast Score 34
UNLVBig
G A. Storr TR15.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97
G C. Noard TR19 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 94
SAMBig
G I. Williamson8.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25
G I. Campbell-Finch7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13
UNLVBig
F T. Jones11.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 91
G T. Davis TR1.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 22
UNLVBig
F M. Thomas TR10.8 pts · 8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
SamfordBetterUNLV
SAM offense147th of 366 · -4.5
Even
UNLV defense114th of 366 · -1.5
SAM defense224th of 366 · -5.9
UNLVBig
UNLV offense90th of 366 · -0.2
Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players
UNLVBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+4.3 · 2 players
Bench-3.6 · 5 players
UNLVSmall
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSAM betterUNLV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Samford
Guards
N. George35 min · TRC. Norris31 minC. Noard29 min · TRI. Campbell-Finch24 minT. Davis11 min · TRW. Miller9 min · TR
Forwards
J. Bjornstad8 minB. MacVicar7 min · TRC. Harrison3 minJ. HughesNewB. KempNew
Centers
W. Shaver9 minL. LeeNew
UNLV
Guards
D. Williams33 minA. Storr26 min · TRI. Williamson23 minS. Mack16 min · TRC. Miles14 min · TRJ. Cunningham3 min
Forwards
T. Jones27 minM. Thomas27 min · TRT. Harris13 min · TRM. Loum11 min · TRJ. KissNew
Centers
J. Foumena10 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SAMUNLV
Scoring
77.8 #98Points per game78.6 #88
1.12 #99Points per possession1.10 #134
69.3 #163Pace (possessions)71.3 #57
Shooting
53.1 #101Effective FG%53.5 #81
35.6 #843-point %35.2 #102
45.7 #543-point attempt rate36.4 #243
41.9 #32Free throw rate40.6 #51
Possessions
13.4 #11Turnover rate17.1 #209
25.3 #333Offensive rebound rate30.2 #189
14.3 #128Assists per game14.1 #137
Defense
77.0 #240Points allowed79.3 #306
1.11 #251Points allowed per possession1.11 #250
51.9 #206Opponent effective FG%52.3 #231
36.5 #326Opponent 3-point %35.2 #259
13.0 #354Turnovers forced17.4 #127
74.3 #17Defensive rebound rate68.0 #256
4.4 #358Steals per game7.3 #102
2.7 #277Blocks per game4.7 #26
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Samford

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman81–86
  • Wvs UNC Greensboro87–78
  • Wvs VMI80–61
  • L@ Mercer86–89
  • W@ The Citadel78–75

A week or more of rest.

UNLV

17-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Tulsa66–77
  • W@ UC Irvine75–72
  • Lvs Utah State60–80
  • Wvs Wyoming73–70
  • L@ San Diego St86–89

A week or more of rest.