Lafayette Leopards at Saint Joseph's Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ETMichael J. Hagan '85 Arena · at Saint Joseph's

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lafayette and Saint Joseph's
LAF	This season	JOES
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JOES 80–62 · win probability JOES 94%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: JOES has more of the edges

LAF 1, JOES 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

JOESBig

LAF offense vs JOES defense

Offense 331st of 366 against a defense 91st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LAF has played the 230th-hardest schedule, JOES the 102nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

JOESBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAF 49.3 and allows 53.6; JOES 49.2 and allows 47.6

JOESBig

JOES offense vs LAF defense

Offense 134th of 366 against a defense 245th, on the model’s ratings

JOESSmall

Three-pointers

LAF hits 32.1% and allows 36.0%; JOES hits 30.8% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 39.8% and 45.1% of their shots

LAFSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAF 15.3%, JOES 16.8%. Forced: LAF 15.1%, JOES 15.0%

JOESSmall

Home court

JOES at home. This season: JOES 0-0 at home, LAF 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAF 25.8%, JOES 31.4%. Defensive: LAF 71.4%, JOES 69.4%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: LAF plays 67.2 a game (274th fastest), JOES 68.4 (208th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAF 34%, JOES 40%. Transfers in: LAF 1, JOES 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAF 32.5, JOES 29.7. Allowed: LAF 30.6, JOES 26.9

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	JOES -17.9	—
Total	—	142.6	—
Projected score	—	LAF 62.4 · JOES 80.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JOES -10.5	—
1H total	66.7	—
1H projected score	LAF 28.1 · JOES 38.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAF WLWWL	13-17	43%	10-6	—
JOES WLWWL	20-14	59%	8-6	—

Venue/role: LAF away; JOES home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAF OUUOO	17-13	57%	10-21
JOES UUUUU	11-23	32%	22-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
JOES	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lafayette

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ SBU	No recent meeting
Nov 18	vs BING	L81–82LO
Nov 21	@ SYR	L63–97LO

Saint Joseph's

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs USF	L62–75LO
Nov 14	vs PENN	L74–83LU
Nov 17	vs WAG	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LAF 0–3 JOESJOES leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · JOES has won the last 3 meetings · LAF 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 3, 2025-26	LAF 76 @ JOES 85	JOES -13.5	LAF W
Nov 6, 2023-24	LAF 60 @ JOES 81	JOES -13.5	JOES W
Nov 14, 2022-23	LAF 59 @ JOES 63	JOES -10.5	LAF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lafayette

31 games played

Straight up

10-21

32% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2132%

L L L L L L W L W L L L L W L L L W L L W W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L L W L L W L–W L W L W L L L W W L L W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O O O U U O–U O O O U O U O U O U O U U U U O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	@STO	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 28	vsLEM	L 63-76	-4.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsBALL	W 55-37	+1.5	W +19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsMONM	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 5	vsMERC	W 79-71	—	—	—	—
Dec 8	@PENN	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 18	@CLT	L 67-81	+11.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 20	@GT	L 81-95	+16.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 31	vsCOLG	L 77-85	+6.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@L-MD	W 79-64	-1.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 143
Jan 7	vsBU	L 67-83	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	@NAVY	L 50-76	+8.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 14	@BUCK	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	vsHC	W 74-55	-2.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 21	@BU	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@LEH	L 59-64	+2.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 123
Jan 28	vsBUCK	W 81-79	-4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	@AMER	W 67-65	+5.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsNAVY	L 50-65	+3.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 115
Feb 7	@ARMY	W 63-60	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 123
Feb 11	vsL-MD	L 54-68	-3.5	L −17.5	147.5	U 122
Feb 14	vsLEH	L 69-78	-2.5	L −11.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 18	@HC	W 86-83	+1.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 169
Feb 22	vsAMER	L 61-75	+3.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	@COLG	W 70-69	+8.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 139
Feb 28	vsARMY	W 83-77	-3.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 160
Mar 3	vsHC	L 77-82	-4.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

STO

L 70-74

−5.5

LEM

L 63-76

−17.5

BALL

W 55-37

+19.5

MONM

L 74-88

−12.5

PENN

L 72-74

+5.5

CLT

L 67-81

−2.5

L 81-95

+2.5

COLG

L 77-85

−1.5

L-MD

W 79-64

+13.5

L 67-83

−14.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−17.5

BUCK

L 69-76

−4.5

W 74-55

+16.5

L 73-77

+0.5

LEH

L 59-64

−2.5

BUCK

W 81-79

−2.5

AMER

W 67-65

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−11.5

ARMY

W 63-60

+1.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−17.5

LEH

L 69-78

−11.5

W 86-83

+4.5

AMER

L 61-75

−10.5

COLG

W 70-69

+9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+2.5

L 77-82

−9.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

STO

L 70-74

+2.5

LEM

L 63-76

−12.5

BALL

W 55-37

−48.5

MONM

L 74-88

+20.5

PENN

L 72-74

−4.5

CLT

L 67-81

+10.5

L 81-95

+28.5

COLG

L 77-85

+15.5

L-MD

W 79-64

−9.5

L 67-83

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−15.5

BUCK

L 69-76

+7.5

W 74-55

−9.5

L 73-77

+4.5

LEH

L 59-64

−20.5

BUCK

W 81-79

+21.5

AMER

W 67-65

−10.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−24.5

ARMY

W 63-60

−19.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−25.5

LEH

L 69-78

+6.5

W 86-83

+29.5

AMER

L 61-75

−5.5

COLG

W 70-69

−9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+15.5

L 77-82

+17.5

over 17under 13avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Joseph's

34 games played

Straight up

22-12

65% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-23

32% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1265%

W W L L L W W W L W L L L W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L W L L L L W L W L L L L W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-2332%

O O U U O U U O U U U O U O U U U O O U U U U U U O U O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLAF	W 85-76	-13.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	vsDREX	W 76-65	-9.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 12	@VT	L 59-94	+12.5	L −22.5	158.5	U 153
Nov 17	@PENN	L 74-83	-5.5	L −14.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 20	@UNLV	L 85-99	+10.5	L −3.5	161.5	O 184
Nov 30	vsPRIN	W 60-58	-5.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 118
Dec 6	vsTEM	W 70-69	+1.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsCOPP	W 87-65	-22.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 11	@SYR	L 63-71	+11.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 18	vsDSU	W 67-51	-17.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 22	vsCCU	L 62-68	-7.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 130
Dec 31	@SLU	L 79-102	+19.5	L −3.5	161.5	O 181
Jan 3	vsDAV	L 56-62	+1.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 7	vsDUQ	W 97-90	+1.5	W +8.5	149.5	O 187
Jan 11	@RICH	W 67-65	+7.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 14	vsSBU	W 68-64	+1.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 132
Jan 19	@VCU	L 72-79	+14.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 151
Jan 24	vsDAY	W 81-74	+6.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 155
Jan 27	@LUC	W 85-64	-1.5	W +19.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 31	@LAS	W 67-58	-2.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 125
Feb 4	vsGW	W 76-73	+1.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 149
Feb 7	@GMU	L 52-60	+6.5	L −1.5	139.5	U 112
Feb 10	vsFOR	L 64-68	-3.5	L −7.5	135.5	U 132
Feb 18	@SBU	W 71-65	+5.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 136
Feb 21	vsLUC	W 75-61	-9.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsGMU	W 81-63	+1.5	W +19.5	136.5	O 144
Feb 28	@URI	W 61-55	+2.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 116
Mar 4	@DAV	W 70-67	+1.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 7	vsLAS	W 88-76	-11.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 164
Mar 13	vsDAV	W 70-58	-2.5	W +9.5	133.5	U 128
Mar 14	vsVCU	L 64-77	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 141
Mar 18	@CSU	W 69-64	+5.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 22	@CAL	W 76-75	+5.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 151
Mar 24	@UNM	L 69-84	+10.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAF

W 85-76

−4.5

DREX

W 76-65

+1.5

L 59-94

−22.5

PENN

L 74-83

−14.5

UNLV

L 85-99

−3.5

PRIN

W 60-58

−3.5

TEM

W 70-69

+2.5

COPP

W 87-65

−0.5

SYR

L 63-71

+3.5

DSU

W 67-51

−1.5

CCU

L 62-68

−13.5

SLU

L 79-102

−3.5

DAV

L 56-62

−4.5

DUQ

W 97-90

+8.5

RICH

W 67-65

+9.5

SBU

W 68-64

+5.5

VCU

L 72-79

+7.5

DAY

W 81-74

+13.5

LUC

W 85-64

+19.5

LAS

W 67-58

+6.5

W 76-73

+4.5

GMU

L 52-60

−1.5

FOR

L 64-68

−7.5

SBU

W 71-65

+11.5

LUC

W 75-61

+4.5

GMU

W 81-63

+19.5

URI

W 61-55

+8.5

DAV

W 70-67

+4.5

LAS

W 88-76

+0.5

DAV

W 70-58

+9.5

VCU

L 64-77

−6.5

CSU

W 69-64

+10.5

CAL

W 76-75

+6.5

UNM

L 69-84

−4.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAF

W 85-76

+22.5

DREX

W 76-65

+1.5

L 59-94

−5.5

PENN

L 74-83

−6.5

UNLV

L 85-99

+22.5

PRIN

W 60-58

−28.5

TEM

W 70-69

−8.5

COPP

W 87-65

+5.5

SYR

L 63-71

−12.5

DSU

W 67-51

−19.5

CCU

L 62-68

−14.5

SLU

L 79-102

+19.5

DAV

L 56-62

−21.5

DUQ

W 97-90

+37.5

RICH

W 67-65

−18.5

SBU

W 68-64

−15.5

VCU

L 72-79

−0.5

DAY

W 81-74

+15.5

LUC

W 85-64

+5.5

LAS

W 67-58

−17.5

W 76-73

−6.5

GMU

L 52-60

−27.5

FOR

L 64-68

−3.5

SBU

W 71-65

−11.5

LUC

W 75-61

−6.5

GMU

W 81-63

+7.5

URI

W 61-55

−25.5

DAV

W 70-67

+0.5

LAS

W 88-76

+21.5

DAV

W 70-58

−5.5

VCU

L 64-77

−4.5

CSU

W 69-64

−11.5

CAL

W 76-75

−1.5

UNM

L 69-84

−2.5

over 11under 23avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Joseph's has the better starters

Position by position: Lafayette 1, Saint Joseph's 3, even 1

LafayetteBetterSaint Joseph's

G P. D'Arcy TR1.1 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Glover-Toscano15.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 80

F S. Jackson10.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 67

LAFSmall

G A. Williford7.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 46

F K. Murdock2.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

JOESBig

G L. Carey TR9.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 60

F L. Bevilacqua2.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

JOESBig

G K. Myers4.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 59

C M. Bednostin1.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

JOESBig

F S. Logan TR3.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58

LafayetteBetterSaint Joseph's

LAF offense331st of 366 · -10.8

JOESBig

JOES defense91st of 366 · -0.3

LAF defense245th of 366 · -6.5

JOESSmall

JOES offense134th of 366 · -3.9

Backcourt-0.7 · 1 player

JOESSmall

Backcourt+0.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.4 · 4 players

JOESSmall

Frontcourt+0.0 · 1 player

Bench-1.4 · 4 players

JOESSmall

Bench-0.2 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestLAF betterJOES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lafayette

Guards

P. D'Arcy7 min · TRF. Fayemi6 minA. Wallace4 minB. CurrieNewC. KeslerNewS. HentonNew

Forwards

S. Jackson22 minK. Murdock10 minL. Bevilacqua9 minM. Rasul4 minL. Azzinaro2 minJ. GillNew

Centers

M. Bednostin10 min

Saint Joseph's

Guards

J. Glover-Toscano32 minA. Williford26 minL. Carey26 min · TRK. Myers15 minM. Johnson4 minB. Rayer1 min

Forwards

S. Logan16 min · TRW. Lange1 minG. MarrsNewL. NonfonNewD. FlamerNewK. SaccoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAF69.1 #297

JOES71.9 #245

Points per possession

LAF1.03 #289

JOES1.05 #244

Pace (possessions)

LAF67.2 #274

JOES68.4 #208

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAF49.3 #278

JOES49.2 #284

3-point %

LAF32.1 #273

JOES30.8 #325

3-point attempt rate

LAF39.8 #173

JOES45.1 #65

Free throw rate

LAF32.5 #249

JOES29.7 #318

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAF15.3 #89

JOES16.8 #187

Offensive rebound rate

LAF25.8 #326

JOES31.4 #147

Assists per game

LAF13.6 #175

JOES15.1 #84

Defense

Points allowed

LAF75.4 #200

JOES70.6 #68

Points allowed per possession

LAF1.12 #275

JOES1.03 #59

Opponent effective FG%

LAF53.6 #286

JOES47.6 #34

Opponent 3-point %

LAF36.0 #298

JOES31.7 #51

Turnovers forced

LAF15.1 #273

JOES15.0 #286

Defensive rebound rate

LAF71.4 #88

JOES69.4 #185

Steals per game

LAF5.3 #316

JOES5.5 #290

Blocks per game

LAF2.3 #324

JOES4.6 #30

LAF		JOES
Scoring
69.1 #297	Points per game	71.9 #245
1.03 #289	Points per possession	1.05 #244
67.2 #274	Pace (possessions)	68.4 #208
Shooting
49.3 #278	Effective FG%	49.2 #284
32.1 #273	3-point %	30.8 #325
39.8 #173	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #65
32.5 #249	Free throw rate	29.7 #318
Possessions
15.3 #89	Turnover rate	16.8 #187
25.8 #326	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #147
13.6 #175	Assists per game	15.1 #84
Defense
75.4 #200	Points allowed	70.6 #68
1.12 #275	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #59
53.6 #286	Opponent effective FG%	47.6 #34
36.0 #298	Opponent 3-point %	31.7 #51
15.1 #273	Turnovers forced	15.0 #286
71.4 #88	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #185
5.3 #316	Steals per game	5.5 #290
2.3 #324	Blocks per game	4.6 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lafayette

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Holy Cross77–82
Wvs Army83–77
W@ Colgate70–69
Lvs American61–75
W@ Holy Cross86–83

A week or more of rest.

Saint Joseph's

22-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ New Mexico69–84
W@ California76–75
W@ Colorado St69–64
Lvs VCU64–77
Wvs Davidson70–58

A week or more of rest.

Lafayette Leopards at Saint Joseph's Hawks

What could decide it: JOES has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Lafayette

Saint Joseph's

Saint Joseph's has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lafayette

Saint Joseph's