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  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. UTU @ USU
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Utah Tech Trailblazers at Utah State Aggies

Dee Glen Smith Spectrum · at Utah State
#268UTUUtah Tech
@
#58USUUtah State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTUThis seasonUSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USU 88–65 · win probability USU 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USU has more of the edges

UTU 1, USU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USUBig
USU offense vs UTU defense
Offense 53rd of 366 against a defense 295th, on the model’s ratings
USUBig
UTU offense vs USU defense
Offense 251st of 366 against a defense 56th, on the model’s ratings
USUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTU 17.8%, USU 15.1%. Forced: UTU 16.8%, USU 20.2%
Context
Schedule so far
UTU has played the 210th-hardest schedule, USU the 83rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
UTUBig
Three-pointers
UTU hits 35.0% and allows 30.7%; USU hits 34.3% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 38.2% and 40.8% of their shots
USUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTU 28.1%, USU 32.7%. Defensive: UTU 65.5%, USU 67.2%
USUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTU 53.3 and allows 50.9; USU 56.3 and allows 49.7
USUSmall
Home court
USU at home. This season: USU 0-0 at home, UTU 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UTU plays 69.9 a game (124th fastest), USU 68.5 (207th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTU 30.6, USU 38.8. Allowed: UTU 33.0, USU 39.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTU 24%, USU 26%. Transfers in: UTU 3, USU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USU -23.4—
Total—152.4—
Projected score—UTU 64.5 · USU 87.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSU -13.8—
1H total71.2—
1H projected scoreUTU 28.7 · USU 42.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Utah State has the better starters

Position by position: Utah Tech 1, Utah State 4, even 0
Utah TechBetterUtah State
G R. Sunderland TR4.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 4
USUBig
G A. Bates TR12.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.8 ast Score 62
G A. Dupre TR3 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 1
USUBig
G M. Falslev16.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 98
G M. Brown TR3 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 6
USUBig
G D. Hall TR5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 49
F E. Potter17.1 pts · 7.9 reb · 2 ast Score 94
UTUBig
G S. Callaghan TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 33
F S. Ariyibi2.4 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 11
USUBig
F W. Hornseth TR11.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
Utah TechBetterUtah State
UTU offense251st of 366 · -7.6
USUBig
USU defense56th of 366 · +1.4
UTU defense295th of 366 · -7.4
USUBig
USU offense53rd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt-8.4 · 3 players
USUBig
Backcourt+2.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players
UTUSmall
Frontcourt+2.6 · 1 player
Bench-0.3 · 3 players
USUBig
Bench+3.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUTU betterUSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Utah Tech
Guards
R. Sunderland27 min · TRA. Dupre16 min · TRM. Brown14 min · TRB. Harker3 minP. Vandermyde1 minP. RagkosNew
Forwards
E. Potter32 minS. Ariyibi10 minD. Grant2 minJ. ClarkNew
Centers
K. LemkeNew
Utah State
Guards
A. Bates34 min · TRM. Falslev33 minD. Hall28 min · TRS. Callaghan28 min · TRB. BoeNewA. ReiserNew
Forwards
W. Hornseth27 min · TRC. Turnbull21 min · TRK. Templin19 minC. Mulholland17 min · TRK. TosiNew
Centers
S. FeltsNewB. RobertsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTUUSU
Scoring
74.7 #171Points per game81.3 #43
1.08 #193Points per possession1.19 #24
69.9 #124Pace (possessions)68.5 #207
Shooting
53.3 #90Effective FG%56.3 #18
35.0 #1133-point %34.3 #155
38.2 #2073-point attempt rate40.8 #152
30.6 #290Free throw rate38.8 #83
Possessions
17.8 #256Turnover rate15.1 #72
28.1 #261Offensive rebound rate32.7 #97
14.4 #121Assists per game17.1 #21
Defense
77.0 #243Points allowed71.2 #78
1.09 #211Points allowed per possession1.04 #72
50.9 #151Opponent effective FG%49.7 #87
30.7 #29Opponent 3-point %34.5 #222
16.8 #166Turnovers forced20.2 #18
65.5 #326Defensive rebound rate67.2 #290
6.9 #135Steals per game8.5 #17
3.0 #216Blocks per game2.9 #252
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Utah Tech

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs CA Baptist72–86
  • Wvs Abilene Chrstn80–74
  • Lvs Utah Valley101–104
  • L@ Southern Utah67–81
  • Wvs Abilene Chrstn85–81

A week or more of rest.

Utah State

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona66–78
  • Wvs Villanova86–76
  • Wvs San Diego St73–62
  • Wvs Nevada79–66
  • Wvs UNLV80–60

A week or more of rest.