1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. LR @ UNM
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Little Rock Trojans at New Mexico Lobos

The Pit · at New Mexico
#222LRLittle Rock
@
#82UNMNew Mexico
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LRThis seasonUNM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNM 84–66 · win probability UNM 95%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

LR 0, UNM 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
LR has played the 347th-hardest schedule, UNM the 97th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: LR 49.4 and allows 51.8; UNM 53.5 and allows 49.5
UNMBig
UNM offense vs LR defense
Offense 72nd of 366 against a defense 208th, on the model’s ratings
UNMBig
LR offense vs UNM defense
Offense 238th of 366 against a defense 103rd, on the model’s ratings
UNMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LR 31.5%, UNM 30.6%. Defensive: LR 63.4%, UNM 72.3%
UNMBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LR 18.4%, UNM 14.9%. Forced: LR 18.6%, UNM 19.0%
UNMSmall
Three-pointers
LR hits 35.3% and allows 34.4%; UNM hits 35.6% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 31.0% and 41.9% of their shots
UNMSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: LR 27.7, UNM 35.8. Allowed: LR 33.1, UNM 33.3
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: LR plays 67.6 a game (248th fastest), UNM 70.7 (87th). Faster games mean more points
UNMSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LR 12%, UNM 42%. Transfers in: LR 8, UNM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UNMSmall
Home court
UNM at home. This season: UNM 0-0 at home, LR 0-0 away
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNM -18.3—
Total—150.3—
Projected score—LR 66 · UNM 84.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNM -10.8—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scoreLR 29.7 · UNM 40.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

New Mexico has the better starters

Position by position: Little Rock 0, New Mexico 3, even 2
Little RockBetterNew Mexico
G A. Clark TR15.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 62
UNMSmall
G J. Hall16.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
G J. King TR14 pts · 3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 46
UNMSmall
G U. Tenette10.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
G T. Walters TR8.3 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37
UNMSmall
G C. Howell6 pts · 3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 54
F B. Hubbard TR16.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 80
Even
G H. Mayes TR11.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 93
F T. Burgess7.4 pts · 3 reb · 1.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. Vahlberg Fasasi TR12.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72
Little RockBetterNew Mexico
LR offense238th of 366 · -7.3
UNMBig
UNM defense103rd of 366 · -0.9
LR defense208th of 366 · -5.2
UNMBig
UNM offense72nd of 366 · +1.6
Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players
UNMBig
Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player
Bench-2.3 · 4 players
UNMBig
Bench+0.9 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestLR betterUNM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Little Rock
Guards
A. Clark33 min · TRJ. King32 min · TRT. Walters28 min · TRA. Economou6 min · TRT. LaceyNewJ. LynNew
Forwards
B. Hubbard29 min · TRT. Burgess24 minP. Amadou Kante14 min · TRA. Bamisile14 min · TRJ. Felt13 min · TRR. OselkaNew
New Mexico
Guards
J. Hall31 minU. Tenette28 minC. Howell25 minH. Mayes24 min · TRD. HallNew
Forwards
T. Vahlberg Fasasi27 min · TRR. Petraitis17 min · TRF. GraniNewI. SuljanovicNewN. MuriithiNewB. SchuchNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LRUNM
Scoring
68.9 #300Points per game80.8 #52
1.02 #306Points per possession1.14 #70
67.6 #248Pace (possessions)70.7 #87
Shooting
49.4 #273Effective FG%53.5 #82
35.3 #963-point %35.6 #83
31.0 #3393-point attempt rate41.9 #136
27.7 #345Free throw rate35.8 #160
Possessions
18.4 #292Turnover rate14.9 #59
31.5 #143Offensive rebound rate30.6 #176
13.4 #183Assists per game14.8 #104
Defense
74.2 #160Points allowed71.6 #96
1.10 #217Points allowed per possession1.01 #36
51.8 #199Opponent effective FG%49.5 #84
34.4 #211Opponent 3-point %30.5 #20
18.6 #71Turnovers forced19.0 #50
63.4 #357Defensive rebound rate72.3 #57
7.5 #77Steals per game7.9 #43
4.4 #45Blocks per game2.7 #274
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Little Rock

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Lindenwood Lions62–72
  • Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles89–70
  • Lvs Morehead St70–76
  • Lvs SE Missouri65–70
  • Wvs UT Martin67–65

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico

25-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulsa69–74
  • Wvs Saint Joseph's84–69
  • Wvs G Washington86–61
  • Wvs Sam Houston107–83
  • Lvs San Diego St62–64

A week or more of rest.