Wright State Raiders at Toledo Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ETSavage Arena · at Toledo

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wright St and Toledo
WRST	This season	TOL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOL 79–75 · win probability TOL 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOL has more of the edges

WRST 2, TOL 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WRSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WRST 32.8%, TOL 29.5%. Defensive: WRST 70.6%, TOL 66.3%

TOLSmall

TOL offense vs WRST defense

Offense 121st of 366 against a defense 215th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WRST has played the 264th-hardest schedule, TOL the 172nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

TOLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WRST 16.1%, TOL 14.7%. Forced: WRST 16.6%, TOL 17.9%

WRSTSmall

WRST offense vs TOL defense

Offense 148th of 366 against a defense 234th, on the model’s ratings

TOLSmall

Home court

TOL at home. This season: TOL 0-0 at home, WRST 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WRST 54.3 and allows 52.4; TOL 54.5 and allows 54.3

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WRST 37.4, TOL 30.5. Allowed: WRST 33.3, TOL 26.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WRST 32%, TOL 43%. Transfers in: WRST 4, TOL 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: WRST plays 69.1 a game (171st fastest), TOL 69.5 (146th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

WRST hits 36.4% and allows 34.3%; TOL hits 37.0% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 34.2% and 32.5% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TOL -3.9	—
Total	—	154.1	—
Projected score	—	WRST 75.1 · TOL 79

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TOL -2.2	—
1H total	72.0	—
1H projected score	WRST 34.9 · TOL 37.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WRST WWWLW	21-12	64%	10-4	—
TOL WWLWW	19-13	59%	6-7	—

Venue/role: WRST away; TOL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WRST OUOUO	16-17	48%	21-12
TOL UOOUU	13-19	41%	17-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WRST	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
TOL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wright St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ SAM	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs AKR	L54–66LU
Nov 24	vs SBU	No recent meeting

Toledo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ DETM	W90–83LO
Nov 19	vs RMU	L70–75LU
Nov 28	@ VAL	W85–70WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WRST 0–3 TOLTOL leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · TOL has won the last 3 meetings · WRST 0-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2025-26	TOL 81 @ WRST 71	WRST -5.5	TOL W
Nov 13, 2024-25	WRST 77 @ TOL 86	TOL -6.5	TOL W
Nov 14, 2023-24	TOL 78 @ WRST 77	WRST -2.5	TOL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wright St

33 games played

Straight up

21-12

64% wins

Against the spread

21-12

64% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1264%

L L W L W L L W L L W W W W W W W L W W W L W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1264%

W L W W W L W W W L L W W L L W W L W W W L L L W W L W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

U U U U U O U O O O U O U U O O O O O U O U U U O U O U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@CAL	L 67-77	+14.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 11	vsTOL	L 71-81	-5.5	L −15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsRAD	W 92-59	+6.5	W +39.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 16	vsKENT	L 72-76	+4.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 25	@STET	W 79-62	-9.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 28	@BTLR	L 69-94	+14.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 163
Dec 3	@YSU	L 68-69	+3.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 7	vsGB	W 86-58	-6.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 144
Dec 13	@MRSH	L 74-76	+3.5	W +1.5	149.5	O 150
Dec 16	vsM-OH	L 76-83	+1.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 22	vsEMU	W 70-64	-10.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 29	vsOAK	W 88-73	-3.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	vsMILW	W 76-70	-3.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 4	@IUIN	W 81-77	-8.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 9	@DETM	W 84-82	-5.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 166
Jan 11	@OAK	W 94-84	+4.5	W +14.5	161.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsYSU	W 93-83	-4.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 21	vsCLE	L 79-85	-15.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 164
Jan 24	vsNKU	W 88-80	-1.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 168
Jan 30	@MILW	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 1	@GB	W 83-75	-3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 158
Feb 4	@RMU	L 66-72	-1.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 7	vsPFW	W 73-68	-6.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 12	vsDETM	L 74-77	-11.5	L −14.5	151.5	U 151
Feb 15	@CLE	W 102-90	-7.5	W +4.5	157.5	O 192
Feb 19	vsIUIN	W 85-73	-11.5	W +0.5	160.5	U 158
Feb 22	vsRMU	L 68-81	-4.5	L −17.5	146.5	O 149
Feb 25	@PFW	W 74-70	-1.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 28	@NKU	W 92-91	+3.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 183
Mar 4	vsCLE	W 90-61	-14.5	W +14.5	162.5	U 151
Mar 9	vsNKU	W 103-90	+1.5	W +14.5	157.5	O 193
Mar 10	vsDETM	W 66-63	-4.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 129
Mar 20	vsUVA	L 73-82	+17.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 67-77

+4.5

TOL

L 71-81

−15.5

RAD

W 92-59

+39.5

KENT

L 72-76

+0.5

STET

W 79-62

+7.5

BTLR

L 69-94

−10.5

YSU

L 68-69

+2.5

W 86-58

+21.5

MRSH

L 74-76

+1.5

M-OH

L 76-83

−5.5

EMU

W 70-64

−4.5

OAK

W 88-73

+11.5

MILW

W 76-70

+2.5

IUIN

W 81-77

−4.5

DETM

W 84-82

−3.5

OAK

W 94-84

+14.5

YSU

W 93-83

+5.5

CLE

L 79-85

−21.5

NKU

W 88-80

+6.5

MILW

W 76-69

+4.5

W 83-75

+4.5

RMU

L 66-72

−7.5

PFW

W 73-68

−1.5

DETM

L 74-77

−14.5

CLE

W 102-90

+4.5

IUIN

W 85-73

+0.5

RMU

L 68-81

−17.5

PFW

W 74-70

+2.5

NKU

W 92-91

+4.5

CLE

W 90-61

+14.5

NKU

W 103-90

+14.5

DETM

W 66-63

−1.5

UVA

L 73-82

+8.5

covered 21didn’t cover 12avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 67-77

−4.5

TOL

L 71-81

−7.5

RAD

W 92-59

−5.5

KENT

L 72-76

−9.5

STET

W 79-62

−6.5

BTLR

L 69-94

+12.5

YSU

L 68-69

−7.5

W 86-58

+1.5

MRSH

L 74-76

+0.5

M-OH

L 76-83

+9.5

EMU

W 70-64

−8.5

OAK

W 88-73

+1.5

MILW

W 76-70

−1.5

IUIN

W 81-77

−4.5

DETM

W 84-82

+17.5

OAK

W 94-84

+16.5

YSU

W 93-83

+34.5

CLE

L 79-85

+7.5

NKU

W 88-80

+12.5

MILW

W 76-69

−6.5

W 83-75

+13.5

RMU

L 66-72

−9.5

PFW

W 73-68

−9.5

DETM

L 74-77

−0.5

CLE

W 102-90

+34.5

IUIN

W 85-73

−2.5

RMU

L 68-81

+2.5

PFW

W 74-70

−6.5

NKU

W 92-91

+29.5

CLE

W 90-61

−11.5

NKU

W 103-90

+35.5

DETM

W 66-63

−24.5

UVA

L 73-82

+8.5

over 16under 17avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Toledo

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

L L W W W W L L L L W W W L W L L W L W L L W L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L W L W W L W L W L L W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1941%

U U U O O U U O U O O U U U O O O U O U U U O U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSA	L 74-76	-2.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsMRSH	L 73-85	-2.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 11	@WRST	W 81-71	+5.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsDETM	W 90-83	-10.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 19	vsYSU	W 92-75	-1.5	W +15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 24	vsTROY	W 75-68	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 143
Nov 26	vsBEL	L 72-87	+4.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 6	@OAK	L 97-98	+4.5	W +3.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 13	@RMU	L 70-75	-1.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 16	@MSU	L 69-92	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsWMU	W 84-79	-10.5	L −5.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 3	@CMU	W 78-75	-7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@NIU	W 75-61	-7.5	W +6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 9	vsM-OH	L 73-87	-1.5	L −15.5	166.5	U 160
Jan 13	vsOHIO	W 101-85	-2.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 186
Jan 16	@KENT	L 84-87	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 171
Jan 20	@MASS	L 82-84	+2.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 166
Jan 24	vsBGSU	W 73-72	+1.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 27	@AKR	L 81-91	+12.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsBALL	W 73-55	-8.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 3	vsKENT	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	161.5	U 147
Feb 7	@JMU	L 71-73	-1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 144
Feb 11	@WMU	W 90-79	-6.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 169
Feb 14	@BGSU	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 150
Feb 21	vsEMU	W 94-75	-8.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsNIU	W 79-69	-12.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	@OHIO	W 79-67	+1.5	W +13.5	158.5	U 146
Mar 3	@M-OH	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 6	vsBUF	W 99-78	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	O 177
Mar 12	vsBGSU	W 77-76	-1.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Mar 13	vsMASS	W 77-67	-2.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 144
Mar 14	vsAKR	L 76-79	+7.5	W +4.5	157.5	U 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−4.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−14.5

WRST

W 81-71

+15.5

DETM

W 90-83

−3.5

YSU

W 92-75

+15.5

TROY

W 75-68

+9.5

BEL

L 72-87

−10.5

OAK

L 97-98

+3.5

RMU

L 70-75

−6.5

MSU

L 69-92

+0.5

WMU

W 84-79

−5.5

CMU

W 78-75

−4.5

NIU

W 75-61

+6.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−15.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+13.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+0.5

BGSU

W 73-72

+2.5

AKR

L 81-91

+2.5

BALL

W 73-55

+9.5

KENT

L 72-75

−1.5

JMU

L 71-73

−3.5

WMU

W 90-79

+4.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−6.5

EMU

W 94-75

+10.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

+13.5

M-OH

L 72-74

+5.5

BUF

W 99-78

+15.5

BGSU

W 77-76

−0.5

MASS

W 77-67

+7.5

AKR

L 76-79

+4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−0.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−2.5

WRST

W 81-71

−7.5

DETM

W 90-83

+13.5

YSU

W 92-75

+6.5

TROY

W 75-68

−16.5

BEL

L 72-87

−4.5

OAK

L 97-98

+28.5

RMU

L 70-75

−9.5

MSU

L 69-92

+10.5

WMU

W 84-79

+2.5

CMU

W 78-75

−5.5

NIU

W 75-61

−25.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−6.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+24.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+1.5

BGSU

W 73-72

−10.5

AKR

L 81-91

+3.5

BALL

W 73-55

−18.5

KENT

L 72-75

−14.5

JMU

L 71-73

−9.5

WMU

W 90-79

+14.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−0.5

EMU

W 94-75

+23.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

−12.5

M-OH

L 72-74

−16.5

BUF

W 99-78

+21.5

BGSU

W 77-76

+2.5

MASS

W 77-67

−14.5

AKR

L 76-79

−2.5

over 13under 19avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Wright St 1, Toledo 1, even 3

Wright StBetterToledo

G C. O'Hara TR14.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 66

TOLSmall

G A. Montas TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89

G D. Pangonis8.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30

No call

G S. Jones TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 3.9 ast Not ranked

G C. Traylor TR3.8 pts · 1.1 reb · 2 ast Score 21

Even

G M. Strong5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 19

G A. Holden5.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 78

WRSTBig

F J. Ouwinga6.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27

F K. Pickett8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 67

Even

C A. Parks10.3 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 54

Wright StBetterToledo

WRST offense148th of 366 · -4.5

WRSTSmall

TOL defense234th of 366 · -6.2

WRST defense215th of 366 · -5.6

TOLSmall

TOL offense121st of 366 · -2.8

Backcourt-2.5 · 4 players

TOLBig

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.6 · 1 player

WRSTSmall

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

Bench-0.7 · 2 players

Even

Bench-1.5 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestWRST betterTOL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wright St

Guards

C. O'Hara33 min · TRD. Pangonis27 minC. Traylor17 min · TRA. Holden14 minI. Milijasevic8 min · TRP. DouglasNew

Forwards

K. Pickett23 minS. JohnsonNewN. LewisNew

Centers

N. Djapa10 min · TR

Toledo

Guards

A. Montas31 min · TRS. Jones21 min · TRM. Strong18 minW. James9 minM. JohnsonNewM. MattucciNew

Forwards

J. Ouwinga19 minC. Riddle13 minT. Nwokolo2 minR. BarronNewR. PorterNew

Centers

A. Parks25 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WRST79.8 #72

TOL79.8 #71

Points per possession

WRST1.16 #54

TOL1.15 #62

Pace (possessions)

WRST69.1 #171

TOL69.5 #146

Shooting

Effective FG%

WRST54.3 #56

TOL54.5 #50

3-point %

WRST36.4 #44

TOL37.0 #29

3-point attempt rate

WRST34.2 #290

TOL32.5 #323

Free throw rate

WRST37.4 #120

TOL30.5 #298

Possessions

Turnover rate

WRST16.1 #149

TOL14.7 #51

Offensive rebound rate

WRST32.8 #91

TOL29.5 #220

Assists per game

WRST13.2 #199

TOL15.6 #61

Defense

Points allowed

WRST75.6 #206

TOL77.4 #250

Points allowed per possession

WRST1.09 #201

TOL1.11 #257

Opponent effective FG%

WRST52.4 #238

TOL54.3 #308

Opponent 3-point %

WRST34.3 #203

TOL34.4 #215

Turnovers forced

WRST16.6 #179

TOL17.9 #104

Defensive rebound rate

WRST70.6 #129

TOL66.3 #313

Steals per game

WRST7.1 #114

TOL7.7 #67

Blocks per game

WRST4.4 #47

TOL2.9 #247

WRST		TOL
Scoring
79.8 #72	Points per game	79.8 #71
1.16 #54	Points per possession	1.15 #62
69.1 #171	Pace (possessions)	69.5 #146
Shooting
54.3 #56	Effective FG%	54.5 #50
36.4 #44	3-point %	37.0 #29
34.2 #290	3-point attempt rate	32.5 #323
37.4 #120	Free throw rate	30.5 #298
Possessions
16.1 #149	Turnover rate	14.7 #51
32.8 #91	Offensive rebound rate	29.5 #220
13.2 #199	Assists per game	15.6 #61
Defense
75.6 #206	Points allowed	77.4 #250
1.09 #201	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #257
52.4 #238	Opponent effective FG%	54.3 #308
34.3 #203	Opponent 3-point %	34.4 #215
16.6 #179	Turnovers forced	17.9 #104
70.6 #129	Defensive rebound rate	66.3 #313
7.1 #114	Steals per game	7.7 #67
4.4 #47	Blocks per game	2.9 #247

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wright St

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Virginia73–82
Wvs Detroit Mercy66–63
Wvs N Kentucky103–90
Wvs Cleveland St90–61
W@ N Kentucky92–91

A week or more of rest.

Toledo

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Akron76–79
Wvs UMass77–67
Wvs Bowling Green77–76
Wvs Buffalo99–78
L@ Miami OH72–74

A week or more of rest.

Wright State Raiders at Toledo Rockets

What could decide it: TOL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wright St

Toledo

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wright St

Toledo