1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. MSU vs DUKE
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Michigan State Spartans vs Duke Blue Devils

United Center · Neutral site
#10MSUMichigan St AP #6
vs
#3DUKEDuke AP #2
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MSUThis seasonDUKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DUKE 75–71 · win probability DUKE 65%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DUKE has more of the edges

MSU 0, DUKE 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DUKEBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MSU 17.1%, DUKE 16.0%. Forced: MSU 14.9%, DUKE 17.2%
DUKESmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MSU 35.9, DUKE 38.2. Allowed: MSU 30.2, DUKE 22.8
DUKESmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MSU 53.8 and allows 48.9; DUKE 56.6 and allows 46.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MSU 63%, DUKE 47%. Transfers in: MSU 1, DUKE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
MSU offense vs DUKE defense
Offense 21st of 366 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: MSU plays 67.3 a game (264th fastest), DUKE 66.8 (285th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Schedule so far
MSU has played the 16th-hardest schedule, DUKE the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
DUKE offense vs MSU defense
Offense 11th of 366 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
MSU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%; DUKE hits 34.7% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 36.4% and 43.5% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MSU 37.8%, DUKE 38.4%. Defensive: MSU 77.6%, DUKE 74.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DUKE -4.5—
Total—146.4—
Projected score—MSU 70.9 · DUKE 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDUKE -2.5—
1H total68.5—
1H projected scoreMSU 33 · DUKE 35.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Michigan St 1, Duke 1, even 3
Michigan StBetterDuke
G J. Fears15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.4 ast Score 99
Even
G J. Blackwell TR19.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 97
G K. Teng7.3 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 63
Even
G C. Foster8.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76
F C. Carr12 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
Even
G J. Theodosiou TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
F J. Scott5.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 53
DUKESmall
G C. Boozer7.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 3 ast Score 85
C A. Bonke TR10.4 pts · 8.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 80
MSUSmall
F D. Sarr6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 52
Michigan StBetterDuke
MSU offense21st of 366 · +7.6
Even
DUKE defense3rd of 366 · +11.4
MSU defense5th of 366 · +9.3
Even
DUKE offense11th of 366 · +10.1
Backcourt+7.0 · 2 players
DUKESmall
Backcourt+9.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+4.8 · 3 players
MSUBig
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
Bench+0.9 · 4 players
DUKEBig
Bench+7.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestMSU betterDUKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Michigan St
Guards
J. Fears32 minK. Teng18 minM. WatkinsNewJ. JervisNewC. MedlockNew
Forwards
C. Carr29 minJ. Scott21 minC. Ward15 minJ. McCulloch7 minB. Walton1 minC. Walton1 min
Centers
A. Bonke26 min · TRE. TaylorNew
Duke
Guards
J. Blackwell34 min · TRC. Foster25 minJ. Theodosiou23 min · TRC. Boozer23 minB. DavisNewD. RippeyNew
Forwards
D. Sarr24 minD. Scharnowski22 min · TRS. WilkinsNewC. WilliamsNew
Centers
P. Ngongba22 minM. MeyerNewJ. Boumtje BoumtjeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MSUDUKE
Scoring
78.8 #84Points per game81.6 #36
1.17 #40Points per possession1.23 #4
67.3 #264Pace (possessions)66.8 #285
Shooting
53.8 #72Effective FG%56.6 #13
36.3 #473-point %34.7 #133
36.4 #2413-point attempt rate43.5 #100
35.9 #157Free throw rate38.2 #97
Possessions
17.1 #217Turnover rate16.0 #139
37.8 #10Offensive rebound rate38.4 #4
18.6 #4Assists per game16.7 #32
Defense
68.3 #37Points allowed63.6 #3
1.02 #40Points allowed per possession0.95 #2
48.9 #61Opponent effective FG%46.2 #13
33.0 #119Opponent 3-point %30.6 #27
14.9 #296Turnovers forced17.2 #133
77.6 #1Defensive rebound rate74.8 #10
5.1 #328Steals per game7.4 #92
4.1 #59Blocks per game3.4 #164
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Michigan St

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn63–67
  • Wvs Louisville77–69
  • Wvs N Dakota St92–67
  • Lvs UCLA84–88
  • L@ Michigan80–90

A week or more of rest.

Duke

35-3 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn72–73
  • Wvs St John's80–75
  • Wvs TCU81–58
  • Wvs Siena71–65
  • Wvs Virginia74–70

A week or more of rest.