Cintas Center · at Xavier
Line
XAV -26.5no move
Total156.5up 1 from 155.5
| This season | XAV | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects XAV 88–63 · win probability XAV 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
XAV -26.5
no move since the open
Total
156.5
model 151.3 · Under by 5
Model edge
MSM by 2
model vs market
Public on the spread
96% MSM
92% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: XAV has more of the edges
MSM 3, XAV 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
MSM has played the 291st-hardest schedule, XAV the 34th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MSM offense vs XAV defense
Offense 319th of 366 against a defense 89th, on the model’s ratings
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MSM 22.4%, XAV 14.0%. Forced: MSM 15.3%, XAV 15.5%
XAV offense vs MSM defense
Offense 31st of 366 against a defense 199th, on the model’s ratings
Shooting
Effective FG%: MSM 50.6 and allows 47.2; XAV 51.8 and allows 54.1
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MSM 32.3%, XAV 26.5%. Defensive: MSM 70.9%, XAV 70.5%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MSM plays 68.0 a game (231st fastest), XAV 71.8 (44th). Faster games mean more points
Home court
XAV at home. This season: XAV 0-0 at home, MSM 0-0 away
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MSM 42%, XAV 14%. Transfers in: MSM 3, XAV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
MSM hits 32.7% and allows 32.3%; XAV hits 36.5% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 42.6% and 40.6% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MSM 33.3, XAV 28.1. Allowed: MSM 37.3, XAV 32.6
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 20 or more | 1165 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 1090 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Games with a total of 155 to 159.5 | 1555 | 74% | 51% | 49% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenXAV -26.5
no move
NowXAV -26.5
No change since the open
Total
Open155.5
▲ 1
Now156.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MSM +3500 · XAV -20000
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened XAV -26.5 · now XAV -26 · moved 0.5 toward MSMmodel XAV -24.5
model XAV -24.5
Opened 155.5 · now 156.5 · moved 1 upmodel 151.5
model 151.5
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Bets
Money
Over 156.5TotalUnder 156.5
Bets
Money
Bets
Money
Books
8 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSM | XAV | Over | Under | MSM | XAV | |
| BetMGMMGM | -26.5-115 | +26.5-105 | 156.5-110 | 156.5-110 | +3000 | -10000 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -26-105 | +26-115 | 156.5-115 | 156.5-105 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -25.5-110 | +25.5-115 | 156.5-109 | 156.5-115 | — | — |
| BetUSBetUS | -26-105 | +26-115 | 156.5-115 | 156.5-105 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -26.5-110 | +26.5-110 | 156.5-105 | 156.5-115 | — | — |
| DraftKingsDK | -26.5-112 | +26.5-108 | 156.5-110 | 156.5-110 | +3500 | -20000 |
| FanDuelFD | -25.5-110 | +25.5-110 | 156.5-106 | 156.5-114 | +3500 | -20000 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -26-101 | +26-111 | 156.5-113 | 156.5-103 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | XAV -26.5 | XAV -24.5 | MSM +2.0 |
| Total | 156.5 | 151.3 | Under 5.2 |
| Projected score | — | MSM 63.4 · XAV 87.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | XAV -14.4 | — |
| 1H total | 70.7 | — |
| 1H projected score | MSM 28.1 · XAV 42.6 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | |
| 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 9-1 90% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mount St Marys
31 games played
Straight up
14-17
45% wins
Against the spread
18-13
58% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-21
32% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ | L 54-70 | +19.5 | W +3.5 | 136.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 7 | vs | L 62-73 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 143.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | @ | W 74-66 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 16 | @ | L 55-72 | +25.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | @ | L 90-95 | +17.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 23 | @ | L 60-83 | +1.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 25 | @ | L 60-113 | +30.5 | L −22.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 29 | vs | W 79-75 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 3 | vs | L 80-87 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 5 | @ | L 56-64 | +8.5 | W +0.5 | 136.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 13 | @ | W 81-73 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 151.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 19 | @ | L 67-75 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 29 | vs | W 66-59 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 2 | @ | L 65-75 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 4 | @ | L 69-80 | +7.5 | L −3.5 | 150.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 9 | vs | W 70-65 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 11 | vs | L 50-67 | +2.5 | L −14.5 | 139.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 17 | @ | W 78-68 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 19 | @ | W 68-58 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 131.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 22 | vs | L 62-77 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 148.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 24 | vs | W 71-61 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 139.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 30 | @ | L 58-66 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 1 | vs | W 72-65 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 5 | vs | L 70-87 | +2.5 | L −14.5 | 134.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 7 | @ | W 83-76 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 159 |
| Feb 13 | @ | W 65-55 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 137.5 | U 120 |
| Feb 20 | vs | W 76-63 | -7.5 | W +5.5 | 130.5 | O 139 |
| Feb 22 | vs | W 68-47 | -7.5 | W +13.5 | 137.5 | U 115 |
| Feb 27 | @ | L 69-77 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 1 | @ | W 69-47 | +4.5 | W +26.5 | 145.5 | U 116 |
| Mar 7 | vs | L 58-63 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | U 121 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@
WVU
L 54-70
+3.5
7
vs
BUCK
L 62-73
−12.5
11
@
SFPA
W 74-66
+1.5
16
@
CIN
L 55-72
+8.5
19
@
MD
L 90-95
+12.5
23
@
WMU
L 60-83
−21.5
25
@
OSU
L 60-113
−22.5
29
vs
HOW
W 79-75
+1.5
3
vs
SHU
L 80-87
−5.5
5
@
MRST
L 56-64
+0.5
13
@
L-MD
W 81-73
+5.5
19
@
DREX
L 67-75
−3.5
29
vs
IONA
W 66-59
+9.5
2
@
MRMK
L 65-75
−6.5
4
@
QUIN
L 69-80
−3.5
9
vs
SPU
W 70-65
+6.5
11
vs
SIE
L 50-67
−14.5
17
@
CAN
W 78-68
+6.5
19
@
NIA
W 68-58
+6.5
22
vs
QUIN
L 62-77
−10.5
24
vs
RID
W 71-61
+0.5
30
@
SPU
L 58-66
−2.5
1
vs
MAN
W 72-65
+0.5
5
vs
MRMK
L 70-87
−14.5
7
@
IONA
W 83-76
+10.5
13
@
RID
W 65-55
+4.5
20
vs
NIA
W 76-63
+5.5
22
vs
CAN
W 68-47
+13.5
27
@
SHU
L 69-77
−5.5
1
@
FAIR
W 69-47
+26.5
7
vs
SIE
L 58-63
−2.5
covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@
WVU
L 54-70
−12.5
7
vs
BUCK
L 62-73
−8.5
11
@
SFPA
W 74-66
−9.5
16
@
CIN
L 55-72
−18.5
19
@
MD
L 90-95
+39.5
23
@
WMU
L 60-83
−7.5
25
@
OSU
L 60-113
+21.5
29
vs
HOW
W 79-75
+7.5
3
vs
SHU
L 80-87
+14.5
5
@
MRST
L 56-64
−16.5
13
@
L-MD
W 81-73
+2.5
19
@
DREX
L 67-75
+4.5
29
vs
IONA
W 66-59
−28.5
2
@
MRMK
L 65-75
−1.5
4
@
QUIN
L 69-80
−1.5
9
vs
SPU
W 70-65
−6.5
11
vs
SIE
L 50-67
−22.5
17
@
CAN
W 78-68
+10.5
19
@
NIA
W 68-58
−5.5
22
vs
QUIN
L 62-77
−9.5
24
vs
RID
W 71-61
−7.5
30
@
SPU
L 58-66
−14.5
1
vs
MAN
W 72-65
−10.5
5
vs
MRMK
L 70-87
+22.5
7
@
IONA
W 83-76
+17.5
13
@
RID
W 65-55
−17.5
20
vs
NIA
W 76-63
+8.5
22
vs
CAN
W 68-47
−22.5
27
@
SHU
L 69-77
−4.5
1
@
FAIR
W 69-47
−29.5
7
vs
SIE
L 58-63
−14.5
over 10under 21avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Xavier
33 games played
Straight up
15-18
45% wins
Against the spread
16-17
48% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
24-9
73% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs | W 66-62 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 6 | vs | W 74-69 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 10 | vs | L 68-87 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 14 | @ | L 62-81 | +15.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs | W 99-69 | -10.5 | W +19.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 21 | vs | L 77-78 | +10.5 | W +9.5 | 165.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 23 | vs | W 78-68 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 140.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 28 | vs | W 88-67 | -13.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs | W 96-74 | -27.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 5 | vs | W 79-74 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 12 | vs | W 75-57 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 17 | vs | L 57-98 | -2.5 | L −43.5 | 151.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 20 | @ | W 80-77 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 31 | vs | L 67-90 | +11.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 3 | @ | L 77-86 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 7 | @ | L 65-66 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 157.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 10 | vs | W 97-84 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 165.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 14 | vs | W 89-75 | +1.5 | W +15.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 21 | @ | L 93-94 | +8.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 24 | vs | L 83-88 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 28 | @ | L 68-86 | +5.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 31 | vs | W 68-66 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 3 | @ | L 60-92 | +16.5 | L −15.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 9 | @ | L 82-87 | +16.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 14 | vs | W 96-88 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 157.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 17 | vs | L 89-92 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 181 |
| Feb 21 | @ | L 75-80 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 25 | @ | L 84-94 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 170.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 28 | vs | W 91-84 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 175 |
| Mar 3 | vs | L 68-77 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Mar 7 | @ | L 78-91 | +11.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 169 |
| Mar 11 | vs | W 89-87 | +4.5 | W +6.5 | 157.5 | O 176 |
| Mar 12 | vs | L 68-93 | +17.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
MRST
W 66-62
−8.5
6
vs
LEM
W 74-69
−19.5
10
vs
SCU
L 68-87
−22.5
14
@
IOWA
L 62-81
−3.5
18
vs
ODU
W 99-69
+19.5
21
vs
UGA
L 77-78
+9.5
23
vs
WVU
W 78-68
+15.5
28
vs
AMCC
W 88-67
+7.5
1
vs
SFPA
W 96-74
−5.5
5
vs
CIN
W 79-74
+6.5
12
vs
MOST
W 75-57
−0.5
17
vs
CREI
L 57-98
−43.5
20
@
GTWN
W 80-77
+7.5
31
vs
CONN
L 67-90
−11.5
3
@
DEP
L 77-86
−6.5
7
@
MARQ
L 65-66
+4.5
10
vs
PROV
W 97-84
+14.5
14
vs
BTLR
W 89-75
+15.5
21
@
CREI
L 93-94
+7.5
24
vs
SJU
L 83-88
+3.5
28
@
HALL
L 68-86
−12.5
31
vs
DEP
W 68-66
−2.5
3
@
CONN
L 60-92
−15.5
9
@
SJU
L 82-87
+11.5
14
vs
MARQ
W 96-88
+6.5
17
vs
VILL
L 89-92
+1.5
21
@
BTLR
L 75-80
−0.5
25
@
PROV
L 84-94
−4.5
28
vs
GTWN
W 91-84
+2.5
3
vs
HALL
L 68-77
−7.5
7
@
VILL
L 78-91
−1.5
11
vs
MARQ
W 89-87
+6.5
12
vs
CONN
L 68-93
−7.5
covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vs
MRST
W 66-62
−11.5
6
vs
LEM
W 74-69
−13.5
10
vs
SCU
L 68-87
−0.5
14
@
IOWA
L 62-81
−0.5
18
vs
ODU
W 99-69
+17.5
21
vs
UGA
L 77-78
−10.5
23
vs
WVU
W 78-68
+5.5
28
vs
AMCC
W 88-67
+8.5
1
vs
SFPA
W 96-74
+17.5
5
vs
CIN
W 79-74
+5.5
12
vs
MOST
W 75-57
−19.5
17
vs
CREI
L 57-98
+3.5
20
@
GTWN
W 80-77
+7.5
31
vs
CONN
L 67-90
+12.5
3
@
DEP
L 77-86
+13.5
7
@
MARQ
L 65-66
−26.5
10
vs
PROV
W 97-84
+15.5
14
vs
BTLR
W 89-75
+2.5
21
@
CREI
L 93-94
+31.5
24
vs
SJU
L 83-88
+11.5
28
@
HALL
L 68-86
+8.5
31
vs
DEP
W 68-66
−16.5
3
@
CONN
L 60-92
+4.5
9
@
SJU
L 82-87
+9.5
14
vs
MARQ
W 96-88
+26.5
17
vs
VILL
L 89-92
+28.5
21
@
BTLR
L 75-80
−4.5
25
@
PROV
L 84-94
+7.5
28
vs
GTWN
W 91-84
+19.5
3
vs
HALL
L 68-77
+0.5
7
@
VILL
L 78-91
+15.5
11
vs
MARQ
W 89-87
+18.5
12
vs
CONN
L 68-93
+10.5
over 24under 9avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Xavier has the better starters
Position by position: Mount St Marys 0, Xavier 5, even 0
Mount St MarysBetterXavier
G A. Khadre Kebe7.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 55
→XAVBig
G C. Westry TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 97
G R. Thompson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.9 ast
Score 49
→XAVSmall
G T. Washington TR11.9 pts · 4 reb · 1.8 ast
Score 82
G A. Arrington5.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1 ast
Score 2
→XAVBig
F N. Chitikoudis TR11.1 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.8 ast
Score 66
G M. So3.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast
Score 13
→XAVBig
F J. Milicevic12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 75
F W. Jr. Exacte TR7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 43
→XAVSmall
F R. Aligbe TR9.4 pts · 7.6 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 74
Mount St MarysBetterXavier
MSM offense319th of 366 · -10.5
→XAVBig
XAV defense89th of 366 · -0.2
MSM defense199th of 366 · -4.8
→XAVBig
XAV offense31st of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
→XAVBig
Backcourt+6.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
→XAVBig
Frontcourt+3.1 · 3 players
Bench-2.4 · 4 players
→XAVBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMSM betterXAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
A. Khadre Kebe22 minR. Thompson22 min · TRA. Arrington19 minM. So18 minA. Rozakeas14 minC. Orness3 min · TR
Forwards
W. Jr. Exacte19 min · TRY. Diop9 minL. JoyceNewR. BrzezanskiNewN. LimolNewC. GardNew
Guards
C. Westry31 min · TRT. Washington28 min · TRR. Dominguez23 min · TRB. Appelhans13 min · TRM. Wolf2 minK. HouseNew
Forwards
N. Chitikoudis27 min · TRJ. Milicevic26 minR. Aligbe25 min · TRM. Nwoko22 min · TRH. Thole1 minG. PozzatoNew
Centers
K. WestphalNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 67.9 #315 | Points per game | 78.4 #91 |
| 1.00 #327 | Points per possession | 1.09 #149 |
| 68.0 #231 | Pace (possessions) | 71.8 #44 |
| Shooting | ||
| 50.6 #208 | Effective FG% | 51.8 #155 |
| 32.7 #244 | 3-point % | 36.5 #39 |
| 42.6 #125 | 3-point attempt rate | 40.6 #156 |
| 33.3 #230 | Free throw rate | 28.1 #341 |
| Possessions | ||
| 22.4 #364 | Turnover rate | 14.0 #21 |
| 32.3 #115 | Offensive rebound rate | 26.5 #311 |
| 13.2 #196 | Assists per game | 17.4 #15 |
| Defense | ||
| 71.0 #74 | Points allowed | 80.6 #329 |
| 1.05 #84 | Points allowed per possession | 1.12 #276 |
| 47.2 #23 | Opponent effective FG% | 54.1 #302 |
| 32.3 #81 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.8 #237 |
| 15.3 #262 | Turnovers forced | 15.5 #253 |
| 70.9 #114 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.5 #136 |
| 5.8 #261 | Steals per game | 6.5 #181 |
| 2.9 #248 | Blocks per game | 4.0 #77 |
Mount St Marys
14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Siena58–63
- W@ Fairfield69–47
- L@ Sacred Heart69–77
- Wvs Canisius68–47
- Wvs Niagara76–63
A week or more of rest.
Xavier
15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UConn68–93
- Wvs Marquette89–87
- L@ Villanova78–91
- Lvs Seton Hall68–77
- Wvs Georgetown91–84
A week or more of rest.