Cintas Center · at Xavier
#278MSMMount St Marys
@
#49XAVXavier
LineXAV -26.5no move
Total156.5up 1 from 155.5
Season records: Mount St Marys and Xavier
MSMThis seasonXAV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects XAV 88–63 · win probability XAV 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
XAV -26.5
no move since the open
Total
156.5
model 151.3 · Under by 5
Model edge
MSM by 2
model vs market
Public on the spread
96% MSM
92% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: XAV has more of the edges

MSM 3, XAV 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
MSM has played the 291st-hardest schedule, XAV the 34th. A record against a soft schedule means less
XAVBig
MSM offense vs XAV defense
Offense 319th of 366 against a defense 89th, on the model’s ratings
XAVBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MSM 22.4%, XAV 14.0%. Forced: MSM 15.3%, XAV 15.5%
XAVBig
XAV offense vs MSM defense
Offense 31st of 366 against a defense 199th, on the model’s ratings
MSMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MSM 50.6 and allows 47.2; XAV 51.8 and allows 54.1
MSMSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MSM 32.3%, XAV 26.5%. Defensive: MSM 70.9%, XAV 70.5%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MSM plays 68.0 a game (231st fastest), XAV 71.8 (44th). Faster games mean more points
XAVSmall
Home court
XAV at home. This season: XAV 0-0 at home, MSM 0-0 away
MSMSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MSM 42%, XAV 14%. Transfers in: MSM 3, XAV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
MSM hits 32.7% and allows 32.3%; XAV hits 36.5% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 42.6% and 40.6% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MSM 33.3, XAV 28.1. Allowed: MSM 37.3, XAV 32.6

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MSM +3500 · XAV -20000
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened XAV -26.5 · now XAV -26 · moved 0.5 toward MSMmodel XAV -24.5
Opened 155.5 · now 156.5 · moved 1 upmodel 151.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
MSM +26.5SpreadXAV -26.5
Bets
Money
Over 156.5TotalUnder 156.5
Bets
Money
MSMWinnerXAV
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
MSMXAVOverUnderMSMXAV
BetMGMMGM-26.5-115+26.5-105156.5-110156.5-110+3000-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-26-105+26-115156.5-115156.5-105——
BetRiversBetRivers-25.5-110+25.5-115156.5-109156.5-115——
BetUSBetUS-26-105+26-115156.5-115156.5-105——
BovadaBovada-26.5-110+26.5-110156.5-105156.5-115——
DraftKingsDK-26.5-112+26.5-108156.5-110156.5-110+3500-20000
FanDuelFD-25.5-110+25.5-110156.5-106156.5-114+3500-20000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-26-101+26-111156.5-113156.5-103——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadXAV -26.5XAV -24.5MSM +2.0
Total156.5151.3Under 5.2
Projected score—MSM 63.4 · XAV 87.9

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadXAV -14.4—
1H total70.7—
1H projected scoreMSM 28.1 · XAV 42.6—

Xavier has the better starters

Position by position: Mount St Marys 0, Xavier 5, even 0
Mount St MarysBetterXavier
G A. Khadre Kebe7.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 55
XAVBig
G C. Westry TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
G R. Thompson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 49
XAVSmall
G T. Washington TR11.9 pts · 4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 82
G A. Arrington5.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1 ast Score 2
XAVBig
F N. Chitikoudis TR11.1 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 66
G M. So3.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 13
XAVBig
F J. Milicevic12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 75
F W. Jr. Exacte TR7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 43
XAVSmall
F R. Aligbe TR9.4 pts · 7.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 74
Mount St MarysBetterXavier
MSM offense319th of 366 · -10.5
XAVBig
XAV defense89th of 366 · -0.2
MSM defense199th of 366 · -4.8
XAVBig
XAV offense31st of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
XAVBig
Backcourt+6.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
XAVBig
Frontcourt+3.1 · 3 players
Bench-2.4 · 4 players
XAVBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMSM betterXAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mount St Marys
Guards
A. Khadre Kebe22 minR. Thompson22 min · TRA. Arrington19 minM. So18 minA. Rozakeas14 minC. Orness3 min · TR
Forwards
W. Jr. Exacte19 min · TRY. Diop9 minL. JoyceNewR. BrzezanskiNewN. LimolNewC. GardNew
Xavier
Guards
C. Westry31 min · TRT. Washington28 min · TRR. Dominguez23 min · TRB. Appelhans13 min · TRM. Wolf2 minK. HouseNew
Forwards
N. Chitikoudis27 min · TRJ. Milicevic26 minR. Aligbe25 min · TRM. Nwoko22 min · TRH. Thole1 minG. PozzatoNew
Centers
K. WestphalNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MSMXAV
Scoring
67.9 #315Points per game78.4 #91
1.00 #327Points per possession1.09 #149
68.0 #231Pace (possessions)71.8 #44
Shooting
50.6 #208Effective FG%51.8 #155
32.7 #2443-point %36.5 #39
42.6 #1253-point attempt rate40.6 #156
33.3 #230Free throw rate28.1 #341
Possessions
22.4 #364Turnover rate14.0 #21
32.3 #115Offensive rebound rate26.5 #311
13.2 #196Assists per game17.4 #15
Defense
71.0 #74Points allowed80.6 #329
1.05 #84Points allowed per possession1.12 #276
47.2 #23Opponent effective FG%54.1 #302
32.3 #81Opponent 3-point %34.8 #237
15.3 #262Turnovers forced15.5 #253
70.9 #114Defensive rebound rate70.5 #136
5.8 #261Steals per game6.5 #181
2.9 #248Blocks per game4.0 #77

Mount St Marys

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena58–63
  • W@ Fairfield69–47
  • L@ Sacred Heart69–77
  • Wvs Canisius68–47
  • Wvs Niagara76–63

A week or more of rest.

Xavier

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn68–93
  • Wvs Marquette89–87
  • L@ Villanova78–91
  • Lvs Seton Hall68–77
  • Wvs Georgetown91–84

A week or more of rest.