1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. ME @ PROV
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Maine Black Bears at Providence Friars

Amica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence
#323MEMaine
@
#52PROVProvidence
LinePROV -28.5no move
Total148.5up 2 from 146.5
METhis seasonPROV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PROV 88–59 · win probability PROV 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
PROV -28.5
no move since the open
Total
148.5
model 146.5 · Under by 2
Model edge
PROV by 1
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PROV has more of the edges

ME 1, PROV 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
ME has played the 319th-hardest schedule, PROV the 31st. A record against a soft schedule means less
PROVBig
ME offense vs PROV defense
Offense 357th of 366 against a defense 81st, on the model’s ratings
PROVBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ME 19.7%, PROV 31.7%. Defensive: ME 65.7%, PROV 69.2%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: ME plays 64.9 a game (348th fastest), PROV 74.2 (10th). Faster games mean more points
PROVBig
PROV offense vs ME defense
Offense 35th of 366 against a defense 191st, on the model’s ratings
PROVSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ME 49.6 and allows 50.6; PROV 55.0 and allows 51.4
MESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ME 19.2%, PROV 16.7%. Forced: ME 19.3%, PROV 13.1%
PROVSmall
Home court
PROV at home. This season: PROV 0-0 at home, ME 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ME 31%, PROV 13%. Transfers in: ME 4, PROV 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ME 38.4, PROV 36.7. Allowed: ME 33.9, PROV 32.7
Even
Three-pointers
ME hits 31.2% and allows 29.4%; PROV hits 36.4% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 37.0% and 40.5% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
ME +4000 · PROV -50000
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened PROV -28.5 · unchangedmodel PROV -29.5
Opened 146.5 · now 149 · moved 2.5 upmodel 146.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 148.5TotalUnder 148.5
Bets
Money
MEWinnerPROV
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
MEPROVOverUnderMEPROV
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-28.5-102+28.5-118149-110149-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-27.5-103+27.5-125148.5-122148.5-103——
BovadaBovada-28.5+100+28.5-120149-110149-110——
DraftKingsDK-28.5-105+28.5-115148.5-115148.5-105+4000-50000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-28.5+102+28.5-114149-108149-108——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 8:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadPROV -28.5PROV -29.3PROV +0.8
Total148.5146.5Under 2.0
Projected score—ME 58.6 · PROV 87.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPROV -17.3—
1H total68.5—
1H projected scoreME 25.6 · PROV 42.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Providence has the better starters

Position by position: Maine 0, Providence 5, even 0
MaineBetterProvidence
G D. Williams TR8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 23
PROVBig
G R. Sabol TR18.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66
G C. Crawford4.2 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14
PROVBig
G M. Mack TR13.6 pts · 3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 80
G V. Garcia Adsten TR3.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
PROVBig
G D. Vanterpool TR15.2 pts · 6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
F A. Flagg6.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 33
PROVBig
G M. Byrd TR10.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 90
F Y. Bamba2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11
PROVBig
G R. Mela9.9 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 81
MaineBetterProvidence
ME offense357th of 366 · -13.7
PROVBig
PROV defense81st of 366 · +0.3
ME defense191st of 366 · -4.5
PROVBig
PROV offense35th of 366 · +5.2
Backcourt-6.4 · 3 players
PROVBig
Backcourt+8.2 · 5 players
Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.7 · 4 players
PROVBig
Bench+4.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestME betterPROV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Maine
Guards
D. Williams25 min · TRC. Crawford20 minV. Garcia Adsten18 min · TRD. LopesNewK. BedardNewH. FranzNew
Forwards
A. Flagg25 minY. Bamba12 minA. Evans8 min · TRK. Gribben3 minE. Byther2 minO. Faubert2 min · TR
Providence
Guards
R. Sabol37 min · TRM. Mack32 min · TRD. Vanterpool32 min · TRM. Byrd28 min · TRR. Mela26 minG. Hightower10 min · TR
Forwards
A. Page23 min · TRJ. Bannarbie16 min · TRJ. BardwellNewC. WaltersNewL. MarangonNew
Centers
S. Aletan26 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MEPROV
Scoring
61.2 #364Points per game85.3 #15
0.95 #356Points per possession1.15 #58
64.9 #348Pace (possessions)74.2 #10
Shooting
49.6 #263Effective FG%55.0 #37
31.2 #3143-point %36.4 #45
37.0 #2313-point attempt rate40.5 #157
38.4 #93Free throw rate36.7 #138
Possessions
19.2 #328Turnover rate16.7 #174
19.7 #364Offensive rebound rate31.7 #135
11.8 #300Assists per game14.0 #146
Defense
68.5 #39Points allowed84.0 #356
1.05 #90Points allowed per possession1.13 #292
50.6 #136Opponent effective FG%51.4 #179
29.4 #4Opponent 3-point %35.3 #265
19.3 #38Turnovers forced13.1 #352
65.7 #322Defensive rebound rate69.2 #195
7.7 #57Steals per game5.4 #313
3.2 #194Blocks per game3.9 #86
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Maine

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ NJIT58–60
  • Lvs UMass Lowell56–67
  • L@ Binghamton67–74
  • W@ UAlbany70–59
  • W@ New Hampshire61–58

A week or more of rest.

Providence

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ St John's72–85
  • Wvs Butler91–81
  • L@ Georgetown79–80
  • Lvs Marquette56–78
  • W@ Creighton79–76

A week or more of rest.