Maine Black Bears at Rhode Island Rams: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ETThomas M. Ryan Center · at Rhode Island

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Maine and Rhode Island
ME	This season	URI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects URI 77–57 · win probability URI 97%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 134.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: URI has more of the edges

ME 2, URI 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

URIBig

ME offense vs URI defense

Offense 357th of 366 against a defense 86th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ME has played the 319th-hardest schedule, URI the 117th. A record against a soft schedule means less

URIBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ME 19.7%, URI 31.0%. Defensive: ME 65.7%, URI 68.2%

MEBig

Three-pointers

ME hits 31.2% and allows 29.4%; URI hits 31.1% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 37.0% and 43.5% of their shots

MESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ME 38.4, URI 38.4. Allowed: ME 33.9, URI 42.6

URISmall

URI offense vs ME defense

Offense 123rd of 366 against a defense 191st, on the model’s ratings

URISmall

Home court

URI at home. This season: URI 0-0 at home, ME 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: ME plays 64.9 a game (348th fastest), URI 66.5 (293rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ME 31%, URI 46%. Transfers in: ME 4, URI 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ME 49.6 and allows 50.6; URI 50.1 and allows 50.4

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ME 19.2%, URI 19.1%. Forced: ME 19.3%, URI 21.2%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	URI -20.8	—
Total	—	134.0	—
Projected score	—	ME 56.6 · URI 77.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	URI -12.2	—
1H total	62.8	—
1H projected score	ME 25.3 · URI 37.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ME WWLLW	14-17	45%	9-9	—
URI LLWLL	13-19	41%	6-10	—

Venue/role: ME away; URI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ME UUOUU	12-19	39%	7-24
URI OUUUU	14-18	44%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ME	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
URI	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Maine

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs DREX	L56–74LO
Nov 19	@ QUIN	L64–70LU
Nov 21	@ MASS	No recent meeting

Rhode Island

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	vs UMES	No recent meeting
Nov 15	vs PRIN	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs LIB	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Maine

31 games played

Straight up

7-24

23% wins

Against the spread

14-17

45% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2423%

L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W W L W L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1745%

W L W L L L L W W L L W L L L W W W L W W L W L L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1939%

U U O U O U O U U U O U U O U U O U U U O O O O O U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GW	L 47-67	+20.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	@STBK	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 10	@RUTG	L 60-72	+18.5	W +6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 16	vsQUIN	L 64-70	+3.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 134
Nov 19	@MRMK	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsBRWN	L 53-58	+1.5	L −3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 28	@AMER	L 61-74	+7.5	L −5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsLONG	L 61-65	+5.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	vsSIE	L 60-64	+9.5	W +5.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 3	@OHIO	L 57-79	+12.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 136
Dec 6	@M-OH	L 61-93	+17.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 154
Dec 10	@BU	W 69-59	+8.5	W +18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsCAN	L 43-70	-6.5	L −33.5	127.5	U 113
Dec 21	@DREX	L 56-74	+10.5	L −7.5	129.5	O 130
Jan 3	vsBRY	L 51-56	+1.5	L −3.5	125.5	U 107
Jan 8	@UMBC	L 62-69	+7.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 131
Jan 10	@NJIT	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 144
Jan 15	@UVM	L 62-67	+14.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 129
Jan 19	vsUNH	L 48-65	-1.5	L −18.5	129.5	U 113
Jan 22	vsUALB	W 52-49	+2.5	W +5.5	131.5	U 101
Jan 24	vsBING	W 79-63	-5.5	W +10.5	124.5	O 142
Jan 31	@UML	L 77-91	+4.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 168
Feb 5	vsUVM	W 76-70	+8.5	W +14.5	130.5	O 146
Feb 7	@BRY	L 67-73	+2.5	L −3.5	128.5	O 140
Feb 12	vsUMBC	L 62-78	+3.5	L −12.5	135.5	O 140
Feb 14	vsNJIT	L 58-67	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 125
Feb 21	@UNH	W 61-58	+3.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 119
Feb 26	@UALB	W 70-59	+4.5	W +15.5	130.5	U 129
Feb 28	@BING	L 67-74	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 141
Mar 3	vsUML	L 56-67	+1.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 7	@NJIT	L 58-60	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-67

+0.5

STBK

L 60-71

−7.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+6.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−2.5

MRMK

L 65-72

−0.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−3.5

AMER

L 61-74

−5.5

LONG

L 61-65

+1.5

SIE

L 60-64

+5.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−9.5

M-OH

L 61-93

−14.5

W 69-59

+18.5

CAN

L 43-70

−33.5

DREX

L 56-74

−7.5

BRY

L 51-56

−3.5

UMBC

L 62-69

+0.5

NJIT

W 74-70

+5.5

UVM

L 62-67

+9.5

UNH

L 48-65

−18.5

UALB

W 52-49

+5.5

BING

W 79-63

+10.5

UML

L 77-91

−9.5

UVM

W 76-70

+14.5

BRY

L 67-73

−3.5

UMBC

L 62-78

−12.5

NJIT

L 58-67

−7.5

UNH

W 61-58

+6.5

UALB

W 70-59

+15.5

BING

L 67-74

−8.5

UML

L 56-67

−9.5

NJIT

L 58-60

+1.5

covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-67

−29.5

STBK

L 60-71

−0.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+1.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−3.5

MRMK

L 65-72

+6.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−16.5

AMER

L 61-74

+1.5

LONG

L 61-65

−12.5

SIE

L 60-64

−3.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−2.5

M-OH

L 61-93

+14.5

W 69-59

−0.5

CAN

L 43-70

−14.5

DREX

L 56-74

+0.5

BRY

L 51-56

−18.5

UMBC

L 62-69

−2.5

NJIT

W 74-70

+13.5

UVM

L 62-67

−1.5

UNH

L 48-65

−16.5

UALB

W 52-49

−30.5

BING

W 79-63

+17.5

UML

L 77-91

+31.5

UVM

W 76-70

+15.5

BRY

L 67-73

+11.5

UMBC

L 62-78

+4.5

NJIT

L 58-67

−12.5

UNH

W 61-58

−16.5

UALB

W 70-59

−1.5

BING

L 67-74

+7.5

UML

L 56-67

−16.5

NJIT

L 58-60

−16.5

over 12under 19avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rhode Island

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

W L W W W L W W W L L W W L L L W L W W W L W L L W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1941%

W L W W W L W W L L L L L L L L W L W W W L L W L W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O U U U O U O O U O U U O U U O U O U O O U O U O O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTET	W 93-62	-18.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 7	vsTLSA	L 65-82	-3.5	L −20.5	153.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsSTO	W 80-57	-16.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 137
Nov 14	vsUALB	W 80-61	-15.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 18	@YALE	W 86-77	+8.5	W +17.5	153.5	O 163
Nov 24	vsTOW	L 55-62	-2.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 25	vsUVM	W 80-65	-4.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 26	vsTEM	W 90-75	-3.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 2	vsBRWN	W 66-56	-13.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 122
Dec 6	@PROV	L 71-90	+7.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 161
Dec 9	vsMCN	L 64-66	+1.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 16	vsCAN	W 62-45	-21.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 107
Dec 22	vsNE	W 85-77	-10.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 162
Dec 31	vsLUC	L 57-61	-9.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 3	@GMU	L 50-61	+6.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 111
Jan 7	vsLAS	L 72-79	-11.5	L −18.5	135.5	O 151
Jan 10	@DAV	W 70-45	+2.5	W +27.5	134.5	U 115
Jan 14	vsVCU	L 75-84	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 21	@RICH	W 69-68	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsGMU	W 74-65	+1.5	W +10.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 27	@DAY	W 81-76	+9.5	W +14.5	138.5	O 157
Feb 1	@DUQ	L 61-76	+2.5	L −12.5	146.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsRICH	W 82-77	-5.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 159
Feb 10	@GW	L 70-75	+5.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 14	vsFOR	L 66-70	-4.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 136
Feb 17	vsSLU	W 81-76	+9.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 157
Feb 21	@LAS	L 46-59	-3.5	L −16.5	135.5	U 105
Feb 26	@SBU	L 76-94	+2.5	L −15.5	144.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsJOES	L 55-61	-2.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 116
Mar 4	vsDUQ	W 64-52	-2.5	W +9.5	143.5	U 116
Mar 7	@FOR	L 49-61	+1.5	L −10.5	136.5	U 110
Mar 12	vsDUQ	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STET

W 93-62

+12.5

TLSA

L 65-82

−20.5

STO

W 80-57

+6.5

UALB

W 80-61

+3.5

YALE

W 86-77

+17.5

TOW

L 55-62

−9.5

UVM

W 80-65

+10.5

TEM

W 90-75

+11.5

BRWN

W 66-56

−3.5

PROV

L 71-90

−11.5

MCN

L 64-66

−0.5

CAN

W 62-45

−4.5

W 85-77

−2.5

LUC

L 57-61

−13.5

GMU

L 50-61

−4.5

LAS

L 72-79

−18.5

DAV

W 70-45

+27.5

VCU

L 75-84

−5.5

RICH

W 69-68

+4.5

GMU

W 74-65

+10.5

DAY

W 81-76

+14.5

DUQ

L 61-76

−12.5

RICH

W 82-77

−0.5

L 70-75

+0.5

FOR

L 66-70

−8.5

SLU

W 81-76

+14.5

LAS

L 46-59

−16.5

SBU

L 76-94

−15.5

JOES

L 55-61

−8.5

DUQ

W 64-52

+9.5

FOR

L 49-61

−10.5

DUQ

L 61-67

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STET

W 93-62

+2.5

TLSA

L 65-82

−6.5

STO

W 80-57

−14.5

UALB

W 80-61

−9.5

YALE

W 86-77

+9.5

TOW

L 55-62

−23.5

UVM

W 80-65

+0.5

TEM

W 90-75

+15.5

BRWN

W 66-56

−16.5

PROV

L 71-90

+1.5

MCN

L 64-66

−16.5

CAN

W 62-45

−31.5

W 85-77

+17.5

LUC

L 57-61

−27.5

GMU

L 50-61

−28.5

LAS

L 72-79

+15.5

DAV

W 70-45

−19.5

VCU

L 75-84

+11.5

RICH

W 69-68

−7.5

GMU

W 74-65

+3.5

DAY

W 81-76

+18.5

DUQ

L 61-76

−9.5

RICH

W 82-77

+16.5

L 70-75

−6.5

FOR

L 66-70

+1.5

SLU

W 81-76

+5.5

LAS

L 46-59

−30.5

SBU

L 76-94

+25.5

JOES

L 55-61

−25.5

DUQ

W 64-52

−27.5

FOR

L 49-61

−26.5

DUQ

L 61-67

−10.5

over 14under 18avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rhode Island has the better starters

Position by position: Maine 0, Rhode Island 4, even 1

MaineBetterRhode Island

G D. Williams TR8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 23

URIBig

G D. Williamson TR14.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 63

G C. Crawford4.2 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14

URIBig

G J. Hinton12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 51

G V. Garcia Adsten TR3.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11

No call

G J. Fontenet TR6.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked

F A. Flagg6.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 33

URIBig

G J. Tripp12 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 90

F Y. Bamba2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11

URIBig

F M. Deniusas TR12.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 70

MaineBetterRhode Island

ME offense357th of 366 · -13.7

URIBig

URI defense86th of 366 · -0.0

ME defense191st of 366 · -4.5

URISmall

URI offense123rd of 366 · -3.2

Backcourt-6.4 · 3 players

URIBig

Backcourt-0.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

URIBig

Frontcourt+0.9 · 1 player

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Even

Bench-0.5 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestME betterURI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Maine

Guards

D. Williams25 min · TRC. Crawford20 minV. Garcia Adsten18 min · TRD. LopesNewK. BedardNewH. FranzNew

Forwards

A. Flagg25 minY. Bamba12 minA. Evans8 min · TRK. Gribben3 minE. Byther2 minO. Faubert2 min · TR

Rhode Island

Guards

D. Williamson37 min · TRJ. Hinton32 minJ. Fontenet28 min · TRJ. Tripp25 minJ. Harper12 minB. Loer4 min

Forwards

M. Deniusas27 min · TRM. Sow20 minJ. PerryNewN. RaupelisNewT. MartinNewD. MabilonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ME61.2 #364

URI69.9 #288

Points per possession

ME0.95 #356

URI1.05 #255

Pace (possessions)

ME64.9 #348

URI66.5 #293

Shooting

Effective FG%

ME49.6 #263

URI50.1 #231

3-point %

ME31.2 #314

URI31.1 #318

3-point attempt rate

ME37.0 #231

URI43.5 #103

Free throw rate

ME38.4 #93

URI38.4 #92

Possessions

Turnover rate

ME19.2 #328

URI19.1 #326

Offensive rebound rate

ME19.7 #364

URI31.0 #163

Assists per game

ME11.8 #300

URI11.3 #321

Defense

Points allowed

ME68.5 #39

URI68.2 #33

Points allowed per possession

ME1.05 #90

URI1.03 #53

Opponent effective FG%

ME50.6 #136

URI50.4 #124

Opponent 3-point %

ME29.4 #4

URI34.7 #232

Turnovers forced

ME19.3 #38

URI21.2 #10

Defensive rebound rate

ME65.7 #322

URI68.2 #248

Steals per game

ME7.7 #57

URI8.4 #20

Blocks per game

ME3.2 #194

URI3.7 #117

ME		URI
Scoring
61.2 #364	Points per game	69.9 #288
0.95 #356	Points per possession	1.05 #255
64.9 #348	Pace (possessions)	66.5 #293
Shooting
49.6 #263	Effective FG%	50.1 #231
31.2 #314	3-point %	31.1 #318
37.0 #231	3-point attempt rate	43.5 #103
38.4 #93	Free throw rate	38.4 #92
Possessions
19.2 #328	Turnover rate	19.1 #326
19.7 #364	Offensive rebound rate	31.0 #163
11.8 #300	Assists per game	11.3 #321
Defense
68.5 #39	Points allowed	68.2 #33
1.05 #90	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #53
50.6 #136	Opponent effective FG%	50.4 #124
29.4 #4	Opponent 3-point %	34.7 #232
19.3 #38	Turnovers forced	21.2 #10
65.7 #322	Defensive rebound rate	68.2 #248
7.7 #57	Steals per game	8.4 #20
3.2 #194	Blocks per game	3.7 #117

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Maine

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ NJIT58–60
Lvs UMass Lowell56–67
L@ Binghamton67–74
W@ UAlbany70–59
W@ New Hampshire61–58

A week or more of rest.

Rhode Island

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duquesne61–67
L@ Fordham49–61
Wvs Duquesne64–52
Lvs Saint Joseph's55–61
L@ St Bonaventure76–94

A week or more of rest.

Maine Black Bears at Rhode Island Rams

What could decide it: URI has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Maine

Rhode Island

Rhode Island has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Maine

Rhode Island