Presbyterian Blue Hose at NC State Wolfpack: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ETLenovo Center · at NC State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Presbyterian and NC State
PRES	This season	NCSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCSU 85–64 · win probability NCSU 96%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCSU has more of the edges

PRES 3, NCSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NCSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PRES 19.4%, NCSU 13.1%. Forced: PRES 15.7%, NCSU 18.2%

Context

Schedule so far

PRES has played the 272nd-hardest schedule, NCSU the 51st. A record against a soft schedule means less

NCSUBig

PRES offense vs NCSU defense

Offense 222nd of 366 against a defense 58th, on the model’s ratings

NCSUBig

Three-pointers

PRES hits 31.6% and allows 34.7%; NCSU hits 38.8% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 28.0% and 43.4% of their shots

NCSUBig

NCSU offense vs PRES defense

Offense 42nd of 366 against a defense 160th, on the model’s ratings

PRESSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PRES 86%, NCSU 28%. Transfers in: PRES 0, NCSU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: PRES plays 66.9 a game (283rd fastest), NCSU 70.2 (103rd). Faster games mean more points

PRESSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PRES 33.1%, NCSU 28.2%. Defensive: PRES 69.3%, NCSU 69.5%

NCSUSmall

Home court

NCSU at home. This season: NCSU 0-0 at home, PRES 0-0 away

PRESSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PRES 39.4, NCSU 35.1. Allowed: PRES 37.1, NCSU 36.9

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PRES 51.0 and allows 51.2; NCSU 55.0 and allows 52.7

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NCSU -20.6	—
Total	—	149.4	—
Projected score	—	PRES 64.4 · NCSU 85

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NCSU -12.1	—
1H total	69.9	—
1H projected score	PRES 28.9 · NCSU 41	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRES LWWWW	17-13	57%	7-9	—
NCSU LLWLL	15-19	44%	8-9	—

Venue/role: PRES away; NCSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRES OOUOU	16-14	53%	12-18
NCSU OOOOU	21-13	62%	20-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRES	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
NCSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Presbyterian

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs MER	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ TNTC	L75–90LO
Nov 28	vs SAC	L62–64WU

NC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs TROY	No recent meeting
Nov 19	vs MUR	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs NORF	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PRES 0–1 NCSUNCSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · PRES 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2024-25	PRES 72 @ NCSU 81	NCSU -21.5	PRES W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Presbyterian

30 games played

Straight up

12-18

40% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1840%

L W W L L L L W L W L L W L L W W W L L L W L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

L W W L W W L W L W L L W L L W W W L W L L L W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U U O U U O U U O U O O U O O O O O O O U O U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAVY	L 55-76	+3.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 8	vsETSU	W 68-64	+6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 10	@GAST	W 63-61	+3.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 12	@SC	L 61-81	+16.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 16	@SAC	L 62-64	+6.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 18	@CAL	L 57-67	+10.5	W +0.5	124.5	U 124
Nov 21	@UCLA	L 46-86	+25.5	L −14.5	131.5	O 132
Nov 30	vsCIT	W 69-41	-8.5	W +19.5	133.5	U 110
Dec 3	@WOF	L 56-63	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 119
Dec 6	vsMORE	W 80-72	-7.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 17	@ECU	L 53-74	+4.5	L −16.5	131.5	U 127
Dec 21	@MAN	L 81-87	-2.5	L −8.5	138.5	O 168
Jan 3	vsUPST	W 86-77	-1.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 7	@RAD	L 61-80	+6.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 10	@LONG	L 70-77	+3.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 147
Jan 14	vsUNCA	W 71-70	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 141
Jan 17	@GWEB	W 92-55	-8.5	W +28.5	145.5	O 147
Jan 21	vsCHSO	W 87-83	+1.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsWIN	L 72-82	+5.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 29	@HPU	L 81-84	+14.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 165
Jan 31	vsRAD	L 84-93	-1.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 177
Feb 7	vsGWEB	W 68-62	-17.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Feb 12	@CHSO	L 67-84	+1.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 151
Feb 14	@UNCA	W 58-57	+5.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 19	vsLONG	W 72-65	-2.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 21	@UPST	L 74-76	-1.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	vsHPU	L 73-79	+12.5	W +6.5	151.5	O 152
Feb 28	@WIN	L 70-74	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 144
Mar 6	vsRAD	W 91-85	+2.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 176
Mar 7	vsWIN	L 71-73	+7.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−17.5

ETSU

W 68-64

+10.5

GAST

W 63-61

+5.5

L 61-81

−3.5

SAC

L 62-64

+4.5

CAL

L 57-67

+0.5

UCLA

L 46-86

−14.5

CIT

W 69-41

+19.5

WOF

L 56-63

−2.5

W 80-72

+0.5

ECU

L 53-74

−16.5

MAN

L 81-87

−8.5

UPST

W 86-77

+7.5

RAD

L 61-80

−12.5

LONG

L 70-77

−3.5

UNCA

W 71-70

+3.5

GWEB

W 92-55

+28.5

CHSO

W 87-83

+5.5

WIN

L 72-82

−4.5

HPU

L 81-84

+11.5

RAD

L 84-93

−10.5

GWEB

W 68-62

−11.5

CHSO

L 67-84

−15.5

UNCA

W 58-57

+6.5

LONG

W 72-65

+4.5

UPST

L 74-76

−3.5

HPU

L 73-79

+6.5

WIN

L 70-74

+3.5

RAD

W 91-85

+8.5

WIN

L 71-73

+5.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−10.5

ETSU

W 68-64

−9.5

GAST

W 63-61

−17.5

L 61-81

+4.5

SAC

L 62-64

−24.5

CAL

L 57-67

−0.5

UCLA

L 46-86

+0.5

CIT

W 69-41

−23.5

WOF

L 56-63

−19.5

W 80-72

+17.5

ECU

L 53-74

−4.5

MAN

L 81-87

+29.5

UPST

W 86-77

+25.5

RAD

L 61-80

−6.5

LONG

L 70-77

+7.5

UNCA

W 71-70

+2.5

GWEB

W 92-55

+1.5

CHSO

W 87-83

+22.5

WIN

L 72-82

+7.5

HPU

L 81-84

+15.5

RAD

L 84-93

+25.5

GWEB

W 68-62

−15.5

CHSO

L 67-84

+4.5

UNCA

W 58-57

−22.5

LONG

W 72-65

−2.5

UPST

L 74-76

+8.5

HPU

L 73-79

+0.5

WIN

L 70-74

−6.5

RAD

W 91-85

+29.5

WIN

L 71-73

−1.5

over 16under 14avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

NC State

34 games played

Straight up

20-14

59% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-13

62% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1459%

W W W W L W L L W W L W W W L W W L W W W W W W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1944%

W W W L L W L L L W L W W W L L W L W W W W L L L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1362%

O O O U O U O U U U O O U U U O O U O O O O O O O U U U O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNCCU	W 114-66	-31.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	vsUAB	W 94-70	-19.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 164
Nov 12	vsUNCG	W 110-64	-30.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 17	vsVCU	W 85-79	-11.5	L −5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 24	vsHALL	L 74-85	-7.5	L −18.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsBOIS	W 81-70	-6.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTEX	L 97-102	-1.5	L −6.5	161.5	O 199
Dec 3	@AUB	L 73-83	+5.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 156
Dec 6	vsUNCA	W 75-63	-28.5	L −16.5	155.5	U 138
Dec 10	vsLIB	W 85-45	-12.5	W +27.5	149.5	U 130
Dec 13	vsKU	L 76-77	-1.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 153
Dec 17	vsTXSO	W 108-72	-34.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 180
Dec 21	vsMISS	W 76-62	-7.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 138
Dec 31	vsWAKE	W 70-57	-10.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsUVA	L 61-76	-4.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 6	@BC	W 79-71	-11.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 10	@FSU	W 113-69	-4.5	W +39.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 17	vsGT	L 74-78	-17.5	L −21.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 20	@CLEM	W 80-76	+2.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 156
Jan 24	@PITT	W 81-72	-6.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsSYR	W 88-68	-10.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 31	@WAKE	W 96-78	-5.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 174
Feb 3	@SMU	W 84-83	-1.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 167
Feb 7	vsVT	W 82-73	-10.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 155
Feb 9	@LOU	L 77-118	+6.5	L −34.5	161.5	O 195
Feb 14	vsMIA	L 76-77	-5.5	L −6.5	157.5	U 153
Feb 17	vsUNC	W 82-58	-8.5	W +15.5	156.5	U 140
Feb 24	@UVA	L 61-90	+6.5	L −22.5	151.5	U 151
Feb 28	@ND	L 90-96	-6.5	L −12.5	153.5	O 186
Mar 2	vsDUKE	L 64-93	+8.5	L −20.5	150.5	O 157
Mar 7	vsSTAN	L 84-85	-9.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsPITT	W 98-88	-8.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 186
Mar 12	vsUVA	L 74-81	+6.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 155
Mar 17	vsTEX	L 66-68	-1.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+16.5

UAB

W 94-70

+4.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+15.5

VCU

W 85-79

−5.5

HALL

L 74-85

−18.5

BOIS

W 81-70

+4.5

TEX

L 97-102

−6.5

AUB

L 73-83

−4.5

UNCA

W 75-63

−16.5

LIB

W 85-45

+27.5

L 76-77

−2.5

TXSO

W 108-72

+1.5

MISS

W 76-62

+6.5

WAKE

W 70-57

+2.5

UVA

L 61-76

−19.5

W 79-71

−3.5

FSU

W 113-69

+39.5

L 74-78

−21.5

CLEM

W 80-76

+6.5

PITT

W 81-72

+2.5

SYR

W 88-68

+9.5

WAKE

W 96-78

+12.5

SMU

W 84-83

−0.5

W 82-73

−1.5

LOU

L 77-118

−34.5

MIA

L 76-77

−6.5

UNC

W 82-58

+15.5

UVA

L 61-90

−22.5

L 90-96

−12.5

DUKE

L 64-93

−20.5

STAN

L 84-85

−10.5

PITT

W 98-88

+1.5

UVA

L 74-81

−0.5

TEX

L 66-68

−3.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+34.5

UAB

W 94-70

+1.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+20.5

VCU

W 85-79

−0.5

HALL

L 74-85

+15.5

BOIS

W 81-70

−1.5

TEX

L 97-102

+37.5

AUB

L 73-83

−6.5

UNCA

W 75-63

−17.5

LIB

W 85-45

−19.5

L 76-77

+4.5

TXSO

W 108-72

+27.5

MISS

W 76-62

−10.5

WAKE

W 70-57

−32.5

UVA

L 61-76

−14.5

W 79-71

+8.5

FSU

W 113-69

+21.5

L 74-78

−2.5

CLEM

W 80-76

+13.5

PITT

W 81-72

+8.5

SYR

W 88-68

+4.5

WAKE

W 96-78

+17.5

SMU

W 84-83

+7.5

W 82-73

+0.5

LOU

L 77-118

+33.5

MIA

L 76-77

−4.5

UNC

W 82-58

−16.5

UVA

L 61-90

−0.5

L 90-96

+32.5

DUKE

L 64-93

+6.5

STAN

L 84-85

+16.5

PITT

W 98-88

+41.5

UVA

L 74-81

+1.5

TEX

L 66-68

−23.5

over 21under 13avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

NC State has the better starters

Position by position: Presbyterian 0, NC State 3, even 2

PresbyterianBetterNC State

G C. Parrish14.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 56

NCSUSmall

G P. Edmead TR16.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.3 ast Score 83

G T. Wilson11.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 52

NCSUBig

G C. Hammond TR15.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87

G E. Taylor5.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 3.6 ast Not ranked

No call

G P. McNeil13.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 90

G I. King3.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 2

NCSUBig

F K. Evans TR11.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 95

F J. Peterson11 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71

Even

F E. Yalaho TR10.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58

PresbyterianBetterNC State

PRES offense222nd of 366 · -6.8

NCSUBig

NCSU defense58th of 366 · +1.3

PRES defense160th of 366 · -3.5

NCSUSmall

NCSU offense42nd of 366 · +4.6

Backcourt-4.4 · 4 players

NCSUBig

Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player

NCSUBig

Frontcourt+4.6 · 2 players

Bench-1.6 · 5 players

NCSUBig

Bench+2.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPRES betterNCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Presbyterian

Guards

C. Parrish35 minT. Wilson32 minE. Taylor21 minI. King19 minK. Hudson11 minJ. Bowden8 min

Forwards

J. Peterson30 minC. Chiakwelu11 minA. AyelyineNewL. HackworthNew

NC State

Guards

P. Edmead35 min · TRC. Hammond30 min · TRP. McNeil29 minD. Adams26 min · TRR. Keene23 min · TRJ. Brim5 min · TR

Forwards

K. Evans30 min · TRE. Yalaho29 min · TRV. Lubin28 minC. Emuobor19 min · TRR. JurkovicNewS. HallNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PRES70.0 #286

NCSU83.2 #25

Points per possession

PRES1.05 #249

NCSU1.18 #30

Pace (possessions)

PRES66.9 #283

NCSU70.2 #103

Shooting

Effective FG%

PRES51.0 #196

NCSU55.0 #35

3-point %

PRES31.6 #302

NCSU38.8 #6

3-point attempt rate

PRES28.0 #360

NCSU43.4 #104

Free throw rate

PRES39.4 #71

NCSU35.1 #175

Possessions

Turnover rate

PRES19.4 #335

NCSU13.1 #7

Offensive rebound rate

PRES33.1 #86

NCSU28.2 #258

Assists per game

PRES12.4 #260

NCSU15.4 #70

Defense

Points allowed

PRES73.1 #133

NCSU76.3 #224

Points allowed per possession

PRES1.09 #192

NCSU1.09 #186

Opponent effective FG%

PRES51.2 #170

NCSU52.7 #256

Opponent 3-point %

PRES34.7 #235

NCSU35.5 #281

Turnovers forced

PRES15.7 #237

NCSU18.2 #90

Defensive rebound rate

PRES69.3 #188

NCSU69.5 #181

Steals per game

PRES5.5 #303

NCSU8.1 #37

Blocks per game

PRES4.5 #35

NCSU3.4 #159

PRES		NCSU
Scoring
70.0 #286	Points per game	83.2 #25
1.05 #249	Points per possession	1.18 #30
66.9 #283	Pace (possessions)	70.2 #103
Shooting
51.0 #196	Effective FG%	55.0 #35
31.6 #302	3-point %	38.8 #6
28.0 #360	3-point attempt rate	43.4 #104
39.4 #71	Free throw rate	35.1 #175
Possessions
19.4 #335	Turnover rate	13.1 #7
33.1 #86	Offensive rebound rate	28.2 #258
12.4 #260	Assists per game	15.4 #70
Defense
73.1 #133	Points allowed	76.3 #224
1.09 #192	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #186
51.2 #170	Opponent effective FG%	52.7 #256
34.7 #235	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #281
15.7 #237	Turnovers forced	18.2 #90
69.3 #188	Defensive rebound rate	69.5 #181
5.5 #303	Steals per game	8.1 #37
4.5 #35	Blocks per game	3.4 #159

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Presbyterian

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-10 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Winthrop71–73
Wvs Radford91–85
L@ Winthrop70–74
Lvs High Point73–79
L@ SC Upstate74–76

A week or more of rest.

NC State

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas66–68
Lvs Virginia74–81
Wvs Pitt98–88
Lvs Stanford84–85
Lvs Duke64–93

A week or more of rest.

Presbyterian Blue Hose at NC State Wolfpack

What could decide it: NCSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Presbyterian

NC State

NC State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Presbyterian

NC State