1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. WYO @ UNC
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Wyoming Cowboys at North Carolina Tar Heels

Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
#122WYOWyoming
@
#44UNCNorth Carolina
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WYOThis seasonUNC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNC 84–69 · win probability UNC 90%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNC has more of the edges

WYO 1, UNC 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: WYO 35.5, UNC 37.1. Allowed: WYO 47.9, UNC 23.8
UNCBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WYO 51.8 and allows 52.0; UNC 54.3 and allows 48.4
UNCSmall
UNC offense vs WYO defense
Offense 40th of 366 against a defense 130th, on the model’s ratings
UNCSmall
WYO offense vs UNC defense
Offense 124th of 366 against a defense 52nd, on the model’s ratings
UNCSmall
Home court
UNC at home. This season: UNC 0-0 at home, WYO 0-0 away
WYOSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WYO 45%, UNC 20%. Transfers in: WYO 4, UNC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
WYO has played the 105th-hardest schedule, UNC the 61st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WYO 34.0%, UNC 31.2%. Defensive: WYO 72.0%, UNC 72.2%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: WYO plays 67.6 a game (252nd fastest), UNC 69.0 (180th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
WYO hits 33.0% and allows 32.8%; UNC hits 34.2% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 43.0% and 42.2% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WYO 16.3%, UNC 13.9%. Forced: WYO 16.8%, UNC 13.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNC -14.6—
Total—152.4—
Projected score—WYO 68.9 · UNC 83.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNC -8.6—
1H total71.2—
1H projected scoreWYO 31.3 · UNC 39.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

North Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: Wyoming 1, North Carolina 4, even 0
WyomingBetterNorth Carolina
G C. Jefferson TR12.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 48
UNCSmall
G N. Avdalas TR12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.6 ast Score 67
G K. Bennett10.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76
UNCSmall
G T. Brown TR19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
G N. Meyer12.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 83
WYOSmall
G A. Brizzi TR14.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
F R. Sondors TR10.4 pts · 4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 15
UNCBig
F J. Stevenson8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
F G. Gores7.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 65
UNCSmall
C C. Fens TR14.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 85
WyomingBetterNorth Carolina
WYO offense124th of 366 · -3.3
UNCSmall
UNC defense52nd of 366 · +1.9
WYO defense130th of 366 · -2.4
UNCSmall
UNC offense40th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt+1.8 · 3 players
UNCBig
Backcourt+6.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.2 · 2 players
UNCBig
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 3 players
UNCSmall
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWYO betterUNC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Wyoming
Guards
C. Jefferson31 min · TRK. Bennett28 minN. Meyer28 minU. Rojas17 minP. Gerrits10 min · TRM. De MartinNew
Forwards
R. Sondors29 min · TRG. Gores18 minM. Curtis9 min · TRM. MoraNewN. SummersNewC. PohlNew
Centers
L. RufNew
North Carolina
Guards
N. Avdalas32 min · TRT. Brown32 min · TRA. Brizzi30 min · TRM. Able22 min · TRJ. Young7 minI. Denis3 min
Forwards
J. Stevenson26 minJ. Holbrook2 minA. SamodurovNewM. AdamsNew
Centers
C. Fens26 min · TRC. BennermanNewS. KeitaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WYOUNC
Scoring
76.2 #137Points per game79.7 #73
1.13 #92Points per possession1.16 #50
67.6 #252Pace (possessions)69.0 #180
Shooting
51.8 #154Effective FG%54.3 #57
33.0 #2343-point %34.2 #159
43.0 #1163-point attempt rate42.2 #132
35.5 #166Free throw rate37.1 #127
Possessions
16.3 #155Turnover rate13.9 #20
34.0 #66Offensive rebound rate31.2 #159
14.1 #141Assists per game16.0 #47
Defense
72.9 #131Points allowed71.6 #97
1.08 #169Points allowed per possession1.04 #65
52.0 #211Opponent effective FG%48.4 #44
32.8 #108Opponent 3-point %34.7 #234
16.8 #164Turnovers forced13.6 #344
72.0 #66Defensive rebound rate72.2 #59
6.6 #169Steals per game5.4 #308
2.4 #318Blocks per game3.4 #167
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wyoming

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Wichita St70–74
  • Lvs UNLV70–73
  • W@ San José St88–78
  • Wvs Nevada83–73
  • Wvs Air Force66–62

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs VCU78–82
  • Lvs Clemson79–80
  • L@ Duke61–76
  • Wvs Clemson67–63
  • Wvs Virginia Tech89–82

A week or more of rest.