Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ETMcCamish Pavilion · at Georgia Tech

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: E Kentucky and Georgia Tech
EKU	This season	GT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GT 88–69 · win probability GT 96%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GT has more of the edges

EKU 0, GT 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GTBig

GT offense vs EKU defense

Offense 71st of 366 against a defense 340th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

EKU has played the 273rd-hardest schedule, GT the 78th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GTBig

EKU offense vs GT defense

Offense 244th of 366 against a defense 123rd, on the model’s ratings

GTSmall

Three-pointers

EKU hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%; GT hits 35.1% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 50.8% and 33.1% of their shots

GTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: EKU 30.7, GT 33.3. Allowed: EKU 38.5, GT 34.2

GTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: EKU 52.1 and allows 56.1; GT 50.0 and allows 49.9

GTSmall

Home court

GT at home. This season: GT 0-0 at home, EKU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: EKU plays 69.8 a game (128th fastest), GT 71.9 (38th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: EKU 16.9%, GT 18.6%. Forced: EKU 14.8%, GT 15.6%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: EKU 29%, GT 16%. Transfers in: EKU 3, GT 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: EKU 32.5%, GT 29.9%. Defensive: EKU 68.3%, GT 69.3%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GT -19.5	—
Total	—	156.4	—
Projected score	—	EKU 68.5 · GT 88

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GT -11.4	—
1H total	73.1	—
1H projected score	EKU 30.8 · GT 42.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EKU LWLLL	11-19	37%	6-10	—
GT LWLLW	13-18	42%	5-14	—

Venue/role: EKU away; GT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EKU OOOUO	19-11	63%	9-21
GT OUUUO	18-13	58%	11-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EKU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
GT	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

E Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ KENT	L78–93LO
Nov 20	vs BELL	W95–92WO
Nov 25	@ M-OH	L69–79LU

Georgia Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs UNCA	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs NORF	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs UGA	L87–92WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Kentucky

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

11-19

37% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L L L L L L L W L W L L L W W L W L L L L W W L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1937%

L L L L L L W W L W L W L W W W W L L L L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1163%

O U O O U O O U U U U O O O U U O O O O O U O U O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	vsWKU	L 79-87	+1.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 12	@VAN	L 62-92	+28.5	L −1.5	168.5	U 154
Nov 18	@KENT	L 78-93	+10.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 171
Nov 22	vsMER	L 83-95	-4.5	L −16.5	163.5	O 178
Nov 24	@NKU	L 71-82	+4.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsWOF	L 77-83	+1.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 3	@ILST	L 78-89	+12.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 167
Dec 10	@EIU	W 68-59	-6.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 127
Dec 13	vsM-OH	L 69-79	+5.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 148
Dec 17	@JXST	W 62-59	+2.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 21	@WICH	L 57-88	+14.5	L −16.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 1	@QUC	L 89-91	+4.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	@WGA	L 76-88	-1.5	L −13.5	156.5	O 164
Jan 8	vsUNA	W 88-80	-5.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 168
Jan 10	vsCARK	W 79-75	+1.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 154
Jan 15	@APSU	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 146
Jan 17	vsBELL	W 89-69	-5.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 158
Jan 22	@UNF	L 85-87	-8.5	L −10.5	166.5	O 172
Jan 24	@JAX	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 157
Jan 28	vsAPSU	L 82-90	+2.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 172
Jan 31	@CARK	L 81-90	+4.5	L −4.5	151.5	O 171
Feb 5	vsFGCU	W 76-74	-1.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 150
Feb 7	vsSTET	W 100-88	-9.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 188
Feb 11	@LIP	L 61-75	+6.5	L −7.5	160.5	U 136
Feb 15	@UNA	L 78-84	-4.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 18	vsWGA	W 81-80	-7.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 21	@BELL	W 95-92	-1.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 187
Feb 25	vsQUC	L 79-96	+2.5	L −14.5	165.5	O 175
Feb 28	vsLIP	L 77-80	+1.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 157
Mar 4	vsSTET	L 76-92	-5.5	L −21.5	155.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WKU

L 79-87

−6.5

VAN

L 62-92

−1.5

KENT

L 78-93

−4.5

MER

L 83-95

−16.5

NKU

L 71-82

−6.5

WOF

L 77-83

−4.5

ILST

L 78-89

+1.5

EIU

W 68-59

+2.5

M-OH

L 69-79

−4.5

JXST

W 62-59

+5.5

WICH

L 57-88

−16.5

QUC

L 89-91

+2.5

WGA

L 76-88

−13.5

UNA

W 88-80

+2.5

CARK

W 79-75

+5.5

APSU

L 72-74

+5.5

BELL

W 89-69

+14.5

UNF

L 85-87

−10.5

JAX

L 76-81

−3.5

APSU

L 82-90

−5.5

CARK

L 81-90

−4.5

FGCU

W 76-74

+0.5

STET

W 100-88

+2.5

LIP

L 61-75

−7.5

UNA

L 78-84

−10.5

WGA

W 81-80

−6.5

BELL

W 95-92

+1.5

QUC

L 79-96

−14.5

LIP

L 77-80

−1.5

STET

L 76-92

−21.5

covered 11didn’t cover 19avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WKU

L 79-87

+3.5

VAN

L 62-92

−14.5

KENT

L 78-93

+9.5

MER

L 83-95

+14.5

NKU

L 71-82

−3.5

WOF

L 77-83

+6.5

ILST

L 78-89

+12.5

EIU

W 68-59

−22.5

M-OH

L 69-79

−10.5

JXST

W 62-59

−21.5

WICH

L 57-88

−3.5

QUC

L 89-91

+15.5

WGA

L 76-88

+7.5

UNA

W 88-80

+19.5

CARK

W 79-75

−2.5

APSU

L 72-74

−7.5

BELL

W 89-69

+1.5

UNF

L 85-87

+5.5

JAX

L 76-81

+14.5

APSU

L 82-90

+20.5

CARK

L 81-90

+19.5

FGCU

W 76-74

−4.5

STET

W 100-88

+36.5

LIP

L 61-75

−24.5

UNA

L 78-84

+11.5

WGA

W 81-80

+6.5

BELL

W 95-92

+33.5

QUC

L 79-96

+9.5

LIP

L 77-80

−0.5

STET

L 76-92

+12.5

over 19under 11avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia Tech

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W W W L W W L L L W W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L

12 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L W L W L L L L L W W L W W W L W L W L W L W L L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1358%

U U U O U O U O O O O O O O U O O O U U U O O O U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUMES	W 56-52	-28.5	L −24.5	139.5	U 108
Nov 7	vsBRY	W 74-45	-15.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsSELA	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UGA	L 87-92	+15.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsGASO	W 68-66	-10.5	L −8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 23	vsWGA	W 82-66	-18.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsDEP	L 61-75	+1.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsDRKE	L 74-84	-4.5	L −14.5	137.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsMSST	L 73-85	+1.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsMONM	W 79-67	-10.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 16	vsMRST	W 87-76	-6.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 163
Dec 20	vsLAF	W 95-81	-16.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 28	vsFAMU	W 89-65	-19.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 31	@DUKE	L 79-85	+27.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 164
Jan 3	vsBC	W 65-53	-6.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 6	vsSYR	L 72-82	+2.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@MIA	L 81-91	+15.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 14	vsPITT	L 66-89	+1.5	L −21.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 17	@NCSU	W 78-74	+17.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 24	vsCLEM	L 63-77	+8.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 140
Jan 27	@VT	L 65-71	+9.5	W +3.5	155.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsUNC	L 75-91	+9.5	L −6.5	160.5	O 166
Feb 4	@CAL	L 85-90	+7.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 175
Feb 7	@STAN	L 72-95	+9.5	L −13.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 11	vsWAKE	L 67-83	+3.5	L −12.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 14	@ND	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 18	vsUVA	L 68-94	+13.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 21	@LOU	L 70-87	+23.5	W +6.5	167.5	U 157
Feb 28	vsFSU	L 71-80	+5.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 151
Mar 4	vsCAL	L 65-76	+2.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 141
Mar 7	@CLEM	L 76-79	+15.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−24.5

BRY

W 74-45

+13.5

SELA

W 70-60

−4.5

UGA

L 87-92

+10.5

GASO

W 68-66

−8.5

WGA

W 82-66

−2.5

DEP

L 61-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 74-84

−14.5

MSST

L 73-85

−10.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+4.5

LAF

W 95-81

−2.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+4.5

DUKE

L 79-85

+21.5

W 65-53

+5.5

SYR

L 72-82

−7.5

MIA

L 81-91

+5.5

PITT

L 66-89

−21.5

NCSU

W 78-74

+21.5

CLEM

L 63-77

−5.5

L 65-71

+3.5

UNC

L 75-91

−6.5

CAL

L 85-90

+2.5

STAN

L 72-95

−13.5

WAKE

L 67-83

−12.5

L 74-89

−9.5

UVA

L 68-94

−12.5

LOU

L 70-87

+6.5

FSU

L 71-80

−3.5

CAL

L 65-76

−8.5

CLEM

L 76-79

+12.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−31.5

BRY

W 74-45

−19.5

SELA

W 70-60

−3.5

UGA

L 87-92

+23.5

GASO

W 68-66

−30.5

WGA

W 82-66

+3.5

DEP

L 61-75

−11.5

DRKE

L 74-84

+20.5

MSST

L 73-85

+7.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+21.5

LAF

W 95-81

+28.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+7.5

DUKE

L 79-85

+10.5

W 65-53

−27.5

SYR

L 72-82

+7.5

MIA

L 81-91

+15.5

PITT

L 66-89

+9.5

NCSU

W 78-74

−2.5

CLEM

L 63-77

−2.5

L 65-71

−19.5

UNC

L 75-91

+5.5

CAL

L 85-90

+22.5

STAN

L 72-95

+15.5

WAKE

L 67-83

−8.5

L 74-89

+12.5

UVA

L 68-94

+11.5

LOU

L 70-87

−10.5

FSU

L 71-80

−7.5

CAL

L 65-76

−13.5

CLEM

L 76-79

+9.5

over 18under 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia Tech has the better starters

Position by position: E Kentucky 0, Georgia Tech 3, even 2

E KentuckyBetterGeorgia Tech

G J. Holt7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 38

GTBig

G N. Whitlock TR20.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 87

G D. King TR2.3 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Garland TR20.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 98

F S. Lasu TR5.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 15

GTSmall

G K. Craft7.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 43

F A. Ball7.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 20

GTBig

F V. Valdes TR14.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.5 ast Score 74

F Y. Paul4.2 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12

No call

F J. Fields TR4.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Not ranked

E KentuckyBetterGeorgia Tech

EKU offense244th of 366 · -7.4

GTSmall

GT defense123rd of 366 · -2.1

EKU defense340th of 366 · -9.1

GTBig

GT offense71st of 366 · +1.7

Backcourt-1.1 · 2 players

GTBig

Backcourt+7.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-5.3 · 3 players

GTBig

Frontcourt+2.6 · 2 players

Bench-0.4 · 2 players

Even

Bench-1.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestEKU betterGT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

E Kentucky

Guards

J. Holt20 minD. King8 min · TRO. Hamama7 min · TRM. Miles1 minJ. McCarterNewD. VasserNew

Forwards

S. Lasu23 min · TRA. Ball20 minY. Paul17 minD. DujmovicNewJ. LoweNewM. CamaraNew

Georgia Tech

Guards

N. Whitlock35 min · TRC. Garland35 min · TRK. Craft21 minC. Muldrew14 min · TRK. BaileyNewK. AllenNew

Forwards

V. Valdes30 min · TRJ. Fields14 min · TRT. JordanNewM. DiopNewI. KurucsNew

Centers

C. Kirouac12 minJ. McVeyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

EKU77.5 #107

GT73.8 #208

Points per possession

EKU1.11 #123

GT1.03 #292

Pace (possessions)

EKU69.8 #128

GT71.9 #38

Shooting

Effective FG%

EKU52.1 #141

GT50.0 #234

3-point %

EKU35.0 #111

GT35.1 #109

3-point attempt rate

EKU50.8 #10

GT33.1 #313

Free throw rate

EKU30.7 #286

GT33.3 #229

Possessions

Turnover rate

EKU16.9 #194

GT18.6 #306

Offensive rebound rate

EKU32.5 #106

GT29.9 #203

Assists per game

EKU14.1 #139

GT15.8 #55

Defense

Points allowed

EKU83.1 #346

GT77.4 #247

Points allowed per possession

EKU1.19 #354

GT1.08 #148

Opponent effective FG%

EKU56.1 #346

GT49.9 #94

Opponent 3-point %

EKU36.2 #312

GT33.1 #134

Turnovers forced

EKU14.8 #304

GT15.6 #244

Defensive rebound rate

EKU68.3 #241

GT69.3 #189

Steals per game

EKU6.1 #228

GT6.1 #229

Blocks per game

EKU2.9 #245

GT3.9 #80

EKU		GT
Scoring
77.5 #107	Points per game	73.8 #208
1.11 #123	Points per possession	1.03 #292
69.8 #128	Pace (possessions)	71.9 #38
Shooting
52.1 #141	Effective FG%	50.0 #234
35.0 #111	3-point %	35.1 #109
50.8 #10	3-point attempt rate	33.1 #313
30.7 #286	Free throw rate	33.3 #229
Possessions
16.9 #194	Turnover rate	18.6 #306
32.5 #106	Offensive rebound rate	29.9 #203
14.1 #139	Assists per game	15.8 #55
Defense
83.1 #346	Points allowed	77.4 #247
1.19 #354	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #148
56.1 #346	Opponent effective FG%	49.9 #94
36.2 #312	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #134
14.8 #304	Turnovers forced	15.6 #244
68.3 #241	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #189
6.1 #228	Steals per game	6.1 #229
2.9 #245	Blocks per game	3.9 #80

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

E Kentucky

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Stetson76–92
Lvs Lipscomb77–80
Lvs Queens University Royals79–96
W@ Bellarmine95–92
Wvs West Georgia81–80

A week or more of rest.

Georgia Tech

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Clemson76–79
Lvs California65–76
Lvs Florida St71–80
L@ Louisville70–87
Lvs Virginia68–94

A week or more of rest.

Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

What could decide it: GT has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

E Kentucky

Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

E Kentucky

Georgia Tech