Hinkle Fieldhouse · at Butler
Line
BTLR -20.5moved 1 toward LAF
Total149.5no move
| This season | BTLR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects BTLR 88–63 · win probability BTLR 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
BTLR -20.5
moved 1 toward LAF
Total
149.5
model 150.8 · Over by 1.5
Model edge
BTLR by 4
model vs market
Public on the spread
89% LAF
87% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: BTLR has more of the edges
LAF 0, BTLR 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LAF offense vs BTLR defense
Offense 331st of 366 against a defense 107th, on the model’s ratings
BTLR offense vs LAF defense
Offense 56th of 366 against a defense 245th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
LAF has played the 230th-hardest schedule, BTLR the 56th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Free throws
Free throw rate: LAF 32.5, BTLR 42.1. Allowed: LAF 30.6, BTLR 24.9
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: LAF plays 67.2 a game (274th fastest), BTLR 71.1 (69th). Faster games mean more points
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LAF 25.8%, BTLR 34.5%. Defensive: LAF 71.4%, BTLR 70.0%
Three-pointers
LAF hits 32.1% and allows 36.0%; BTLR hits 32.7% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 39.8% and 35.0% of their shots
Shooting
Effective FG%: LAF 49.3 and allows 53.6; BTLR 50.9 and allows 51.9
Home court
BTLR at home. This season: BTLR 0-0 at home, LAF 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LAF 34%, BTLR 22%. Transfers in: LAF 1, BTLR 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LAF 15.3%, BTLR 15.9%. Forced: LAF 15.1%, BTLR 15.1%
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 20 or more | 1165 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 1090 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog | 4513 | 74% | 51% | 50% |
| Games with a total of 145 to 149.5 | 3547 | 74% | 49% | 50% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenBTLR -21.5
1 → LAF
NowBTLR -20.5
1 pt toward LAF
Total
Open149.5
no move
Now149.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
LAF +1800 · BTLR -5000
Line movement
Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened BTLR -21.5 · now BTLR -20.5 · moved 1 toward LAFmodel BTLR -24.5
model BTLR -24.5
Opened 149.5 · unchangedmodel 151
model 151
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Bets
Money
Over 149.5TotalUnder 149.5
Bets
Money
Bets
Money
Money is 33 pts ahead of bets on LAF
Books
6 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAF | BTLR | Over | Under | LAF | BTLR | |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -20.5-105 | +20.5-115 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -21.5-114 | +21.5-112 | 149.5-122 | 149.5-104 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -20.5-105 | +20.5-115 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | — | — |
| DraftKingsDK | -20.5-110 | +20.5-110 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | +2000 | -6500 |
| FanDuelFD | -20.5-110 | +20.5-110 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | +2000 | -7000 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -20.5-101 | +20.5-111 | 149.5-108 | 149.5-108 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BTLR -20.5 | BTLR -24.3 | BTLR +3.8 |
| Total | 149.5 | 150.8 | Over 1.3 |
| Projected score | — | LAF 63.3 · BTLR 87.6 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | BTLR -14.3 | — |
| 1H total | 70.5 | — |
| 1H projected score | LAF 28.1 · BTLR 42.4 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | |
| 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Lafayette
31 games played
Straight up
10-21
32% wins
Against the spread
13-17
43% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-13
57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ | L 76-85 | +13.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 8 | @ | L 60-97 | +25.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 13 | vs | L 78-97 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 17 | @ | L 59-81 | +24.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | O 140 |
| Nov 21 | @ | L 70-74 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 28 | vs | L 63-76 | -4.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 29 | vs | W 55-37 | +1.5 | W +19.5 | 140.5 | U 92 |
| Nov 30 | vs | L 74-88 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 5 | vs | W 79-71 | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 8 | @ | L 72-74 | +7.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 18 | @ | L 67-81 | +11.5 | L −2.5 | 137.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 20 | @ | L 81-95 | +16.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 176 |
| Dec 31 | vs | L 77-85 | +6.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 3 | @ | W 79-64 | -1.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 7 | vs | L 67-83 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 142.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 50-76 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 14 | @ | L 69-76 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 137.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 17 | vs | W 74-55 | -2.5 | W +16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 21 | @ | L 73-77 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 24 | @ | L 59-64 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 28 | vs | W 81-79 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 31 | @ | W 67-65 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 4 | vs | L 50-65 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 139.5 | U 115 |
| Feb 7 | @ | W 63-60 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 123 |
| Feb 11 | vs | L 54-68 | -3.5 | L −17.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 14 | vs | L 69-78 | -2.5 | L −11.5 | 140.5 | O 147 |
| Feb 18 | @ | W 86-83 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 22 | vs | L 61-75 | +3.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 25 | @ | W 70-69 | +8.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 28 | vs | W 83-77 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 160 |
| Mar 3 | vs | L 77-82 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
JOES
L 76-85
+4.5
8
@
TEX
L 60-97
−11.5
13
vs
COR
L 78-97
−14.5
17
@
WVU
L 59-81
+2.5
21
@
STO
L 70-74
−5.5
28
vs
LEM
L 63-76
−17.5
29
vs
BALL
W 55-37
+19.5
30
vs
MONM
L 74-88
−12.5
8
@
PENN
L 72-74
+5.5
18
@
CLT
L 67-81
−2.5
20
@
GT
L 81-95
+2.5
31
vs
COLG
L 77-85
−1.5
3
@
L-MD
W 79-64
+13.5
7
vs
BU
L 67-83
−14.5
10
@
NAVY
L 50-76
−17.5
14
@
BUCK
L 69-76
−4.5
17
vs
HC
W 74-55
+16.5
21
@
BU
L 73-77
+0.5
24
@
LEH
L 59-64
−2.5
28
vs
BUCK
W 81-79
−2.5
31
@
AMER
W 67-65
+7.5
4
vs
NAVY
L 50-65
−11.5
7
@
ARMY
W 63-60
+1.5
11
vs
L-MD
L 54-68
−17.5
14
vs
LEH
L 69-78
−11.5
18
@
HC
W 86-83
+4.5
22
vs
AMER
L 61-75
−10.5
25
@
COLG
W 70-69
+9.5
28
vs
ARMY
W 83-77
+2.5
3
vs
HC
L 77-82
−9.5
covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@
JOES
L 76-85
+22.5
8
@
TEX
L 60-97
+3.5
13
vs
COR
L 78-97
+14.5
17
@
WVU
L 59-81
+4.5
21
@
STO
L 70-74
+2.5
28
vs
LEM
L 63-76
−12.5
29
vs
BALL
W 55-37
−48.5
30
vs
MONM
L 74-88
+20.5
8
@
PENN
L 72-74
−4.5
18
@
CLT
L 67-81
+10.5
20
@
GT
L 81-95
+28.5
31
vs
COLG
L 77-85
+15.5
3
@
L-MD
W 79-64
−9.5
7
vs
BU
L 67-83
+7.5
10
@
NAVY
L 50-76
−15.5
14
@
BUCK
L 69-76
+7.5
17
vs
HC
W 74-55
−9.5
21
@
BU
L 73-77
+4.5
24
@
LEH
L 59-64
−20.5
28
vs
BUCK
W 81-79
+21.5
31
@
AMER
W 67-65
−10.5
4
vs
NAVY
L 50-65
−24.5
7
@
ARMY
W 63-60
−19.5
11
vs
L-MD
L 54-68
−25.5
14
vs
LEH
L 69-78
+6.5
18
@
HC
W 86-83
+29.5
22
vs
AMER
L 61-75
−5.5
25
@
COLG
W 70-69
−9.5
28
vs
ARMY
W 83-77
+15.5
3
vs
HC
L 77-82
+17.5
over 17under 13avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Butler
32 games played
Straight up
16-16
50% wins
Against the spread
16-16
50% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-14
56% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs | W 88-58 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 8 | vs | W 112-80 | -20.5 | W +11.5 | 192.5 | U 192 |
| Nov 11 | vs | W 98-66 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 15 | @ | L 85-87 | +7.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 21 | vs | W 79-72 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 150.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 23 | vs | W 80-73 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs | W 94-69 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | vs | W 84-68 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 6 | vs | L 68-77 | -2.5 | L −11.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs | W 113-110 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 164.5 | O 223 |
| Dec 16 | @ | L 60-79 | +15.5 | L −3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 20 | vs | W 61-58 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | U 119 |
| Dec 22 | vs | W 101-52 | -32.5 | W +16.5 | 149.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 30 | @ | L 85-89 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 3 | vs | L 67-85 | -2.5 | L −20.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 6 | vs | L 70-84 | +4.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 14 | @ | L 75-89 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 17 | @ | W 77-66 | +6.5 | W +17.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | vs | W 87-80 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 23 | vs | W 87-76 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 28 | @ | L 70-92 | +12.5 | L −9.5 | 158.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 31 | vs | L 64-77 | -5.5 | L −18.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 4 | @ | L 87-97 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 168.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 7 | @ | L 55-70 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 155.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 11 | vs | L 70-80 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 15 | vs | L 56-63 | +5.5 | L −1.5 | 138.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 18 | @ | W 93-89 | +6.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 182 |
| Feb 21 | vs | W 80-75 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 25 | @ | L 73-82 | +10.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | O 155 |
| Mar 4 | vs | L 59-76 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Mar 7 | @ | W 81-71 | +4.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | O 152 |
| Mar 11 | vs | L 81-91 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vs
USI
W 88-58
+7.5
8
vs
IUIN
W 112-80
+11.5
11
vs
CHST
W 98-66
+5.5
15
@
SMU
L 85-87
+5.5
21
vs
SC
W 79-72
+3.5
23
vs
UVA
W 80-73
+13.5
28
vs
WRST
W 94-69
+10.5
2
vs
EMU
W 84-68
−1.5
6
vs
BOIS
L 68-77
−11.5
13
vs
PROV
W 113-110
−0.5
16
@
CONN
L 60-79
−3.5
20
vs
NU
W 61-58
−0.5
22
vs
NJIT
W 101-52
+16.5
30
@
CREI
L 85-89
+1.5
3
vs
VILL
L 67-85
−20.5
6
vs
SJU
L 70-84
−9.5
14
@
XAV
L 75-89
−15.5
17
@
HALL
W 77-66
+17.5
20
vs
DEP
W 87-80
−0.5
23
vs
MARQ
W 87-76
+5.5
28
@
SJU
L 70-92
−9.5
31
vs
GTWN
L 64-77
−18.5
4
@
PROV
L 87-97
−7.5
7
@
MARQ
L 55-70
−11.5
11
vs
CONN
L 70-80
+1.5
15
vs
HALL
L 56-63
−1.5
18
@
GTWN
W 93-89
+10.5
21
vs
XAV
W 80-75
+0.5
25
@
VILL
L 73-82
+1.5
4
vs
CREI
L 59-76
−19.5
7
@
DEP
W 81-71
+14.5
11
vs
PROV
L 81-91
−8.5
covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vs
USI
W 88-58
−10.5
8
vs
IUIN
W 112-80
−0.5
11
vs
CHST
W 98-66
+5.5
15
@
SMU
L 85-87
+8.5
21
vs
SC
W 79-72
+0.5
23
vs
UVA
W 80-73
−2.5
28
vs
WRST
W 94-69
+12.5
2
vs
EMU
W 84-68
−1.5
6
vs
BOIS
L 68-77
−3.5
13
vs
PROV
W 113-110
+58.5
16
@
CONN
L 60-79
−5.5
20
vs
NU
W 61-58
−35.5
22
vs
NJIT
W 101-52
+3.5
30
@
CREI
L 85-89
+17.5
3
vs
VILL
L 67-85
+2.5
6
vs
SJU
L 70-84
−8.5
14
@
XAV
L 75-89
+2.5
17
@
HALL
W 77-66
−1.5
20
vs
DEP
W 87-80
+19.5
23
vs
MARQ
W 87-76
+1.5
28
@
SJU
L 70-92
+3.5
31
vs
GTWN
L 64-77
−8.5
4
@
PROV
L 87-97
+15.5
7
@
MARQ
L 55-70
−30.5
11
vs
CONN
L 70-80
+6.5
15
vs
HALL
L 56-63
−19.5
18
@
GTWN
W 93-89
+34.5
21
vs
XAV
W 80-75
−4.5
25
@
VILL
L 73-82
+7.5
4
vs
CREI
L 59-76
−20.5
7
@
DEP
W 81-71
+9.5
11
vs
PROV
L 81-91
+9.5
over 18under 14avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Butler has the better starters
Position by position: Lafayette 0, Butler 3, even 2
LafayetteBetterButler
G P. D'Arcy TR1.1 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast
Not ranked
=No call
G J. Ellerbee TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 66
F S. Jackson10.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 67
=No call
G J. Jackson9.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.8 ast
Not ranked
F K. Murdock2.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast
Score 16
→BTLRSmall
F C. Moore TR11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast
Score 46
F L. Bevilacqua2.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 13
→BTLRBig
F T. Anderson TR10.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.8 ast
Score 92
C M. Bednostin1.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 8
→BTLRBig
C D. Jones6.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 76
LafayetteBetterButler
LAF offense331st of 366 · -10.8
→BTLRBig
BTLR defense107th of 366 · -1.1
LAF defense245th of 366 · -6.5
→BTLRBig
BTLR offense56th of 366 · +3.1
Backcourt-0.7 · 1 player
→BTLRSmall
Backcourt+1.3 · 2 players
Frontcourt-2.4 · 4 players
→BTLRBig
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
Bench-1.4 · 4 players
→BTLRSmall
Bench+0.9 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestLAF betterBTLR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
P. D'Arcy7 min · TRF. Fayemi6 minA. Wallace4 minB. CurrieNewC. KeslerNewS. HentonNew
Forwards
S. Jackson22 minK. Murdock10 minL. Bevilacqua9 minM. Rasul4 minL. Azzinaro2 minJ. GillNew
Centers
M. Bednostin10 min
Guards
J. Ellerbee28 min · TRJ. Jackson23 minE. Klafke15 min · TRE. McComb1 minB. WalkerNewS. AdlerNew
Forwards
C. Moore26 min · TRT. Anderson19 min · TRS. Calderon4 min · TRH. BrutusNewB. CardinalNewM. MaricNew
Centers
D. Jones20 minK. NdzieNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 69.1 #297 | Points per game | 79.4 #75 |
| 1.03 #289 | Points per possession | 1.12 #106 |
| 67.2 #274 | Pace (possessions) | 71.1 #69 |
| Shooting | ||
| 49.3 #278 | Effective FG% | 50.9 #199 |
| 32.1 #273 | 3-point % | 32.7 #242 |
| 39.8 #173 | 3-point attempt rate | 35.0 #276 |
| 32.5 #249 | Free throw rate | 42.1 #29 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.3 #89 | Turnover rate | 15.9 #131 |
| 25.8 #326 | Offensive rebound rate | 34.5 #58 |
| 13.6 #175 | Assists per game | 15.5 #64 |
| Defense | ||
| 75.4 #200 | Points allowed | 77.5 #252 |
| 1.12 #275 | Points allowed per possession | 1.09 #195 |
| 53.6 #286 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.9 #208 |
| 36.0 #298 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.3 #142 |
| 15.1 #273 | Turnovers forced | 15.1 #272 |
| 71.4 #88 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.0 #163 |
| 5.3 #316 | Steals per game | 6.5 #178 |
| 2.3 #324 | Blocks per game | 3.2 #191 |
Lafayette
10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Holy Cross77–82
- Wvs Army83–77
- W@ Colgate70–69
- Lvs American61–75
- W@ Holy Cross86–83
A week or more of rest.
Butler
16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Providence81–91
- W@ DePaul81–71
- Lvs Creighton59–76
- L@ Villanova73–82
- Wvs Xavier80–75
A week or more of rest.