Hinkle Fieldhouse · at Butler
#310LAFLafayette
@
#72BTLRButler
LineBTLR -20.5moved 1 toward LAF
Total149.5no move
Season records: Lafayette and Butler
LAFThis seasonBTLR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BTLR 88–63 · win probability BTLR 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
BTLR -20.5
moved 1 toward LAF
Total
149.5
model 150.8 · Over by 1.5
Model edge
BTLR by 4
model vs market
Public on the spread
89% LAF
87% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BTLR has more of the edges

LAF 0, BTLR 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BTLRBig
LAF offense vs BTLR defense
Offense 331st of 366 against a defense 107th, on the model’s ratings
BTLRBig
BTLR offense vs LAF defense
Offense 56th of 366 against a defense 245th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
LAF has played the 230th-hardest schedule, BTLR the 56th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BTLRBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LAF 32.5, BTLR 42.1. Allowed: LAF 30.6, BTLR 24.9
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: LAF plays 67.2 a game (274th fastest), BTLR 71.1 (69th). Faster games mean more points
BTLRSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LAF 25.8%, BTLR 34.5%. Defensive: LAF 71.4%, BTLR 70.0%
BTLRSmall
Three-pointers
LAF hits 32.1% and allows 36.0%; BTLR hits 32.7% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 39.8% and 35.0% of their shots
BTLRSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: LAF 49.3 and allows 53.6; BTLR 50.9 and allows 51.9
BTLRSmall
Home court
BTLR at home. This season: BTLR 0-0 at home, LAF 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LAF 34%, BTLR 22%. Transfers in: LAF 1, BTLR 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LAF 15.3%, BTLR 15.9%. Forced: LAF 15.1%, BTLR 15.1%

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward LAF
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
LAF +1800 · BTLR -5000
Line movement
Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened BTLR -21.5 · now BTLR -20.5 · moved 1 toward LAFmodel BTLR -24.5
Opened 149.5 · unchangedmodel 151
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
LAF +20.5SpreadBTLR -20.5
Bets
Money
Over 149.5TotalUnder 149.5
Bets
Money
LAFWinnerBTLR
Bets
Money
Money is 33 pts ahead of bets on LAF

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
LAFBTLROverUnderLAFBTLR
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-20.5-105+20.5-115149.5-110149.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-21.5-114+21.5-112149.5-122149.5-104——
BovadaBovada-20.5-105+20.5-115149.5-110149.5-110——
DraftKingsDK-20.5-110+20.5-110149.5-110149.5-110+2000-6500
FanDuelFD-20.5-110+20.5-110149.5-110149.5-110+2000-7000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-20.5-101+20.5-111149.5-108149.5-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadBTLR -20.5BTLR -24.3BTLR +3.8
Total149.5150.8Over 1.3
Projected score—LAF 63.3 · BTLR 87.6

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadBTLR -14.3—
1H total70.5—
1H projected scoreLAF 28.1 · BTLR 42.4—

Butler has the better starters

Position by position: Lafayette 0, Butler 3, even 2
LafayetteBetterButler
G P. D'Arcy TR1.1 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Ellerbee TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 66
F S. Jackson10.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 67
No call
G J. Jackson9.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.8 ast Not ranked
F K. Murdock2.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16
BTLRSmall
F C. Moore TR11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 46
F L. Bevilacqua2.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13
BTLRBig
F T. Anderson TR10.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92
C M. Bednostin1.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8
BTLRBig
C D. Jones6.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
LafayetteBetterButler
LAF offense331st of 366 · -10.8
BTLRBig
BTLR defense107th of 366 · -1.1
LAF defense245th of 366 · -6.5
BTLRBig
BTLR offense56th of 366 · +3.1
Backcourt-0.7 · 1 player
BTLRSmall
Backcourt+1.3 · 2 players
Frontcourt-2.4 · 4 players
BTLRBig
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
Bench-1.4 · 4 players
BTLRSmall
Bench+0.9 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestLAF betterBTLR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Lafayette
Guards
P. D'Arcy7 min · TRF. Fayemi6 minA. Wallace4 minB. CurrieNewC. KeslerNewS. HentonNew
Forwards
S. Jackson22 minK. Murdock10 minL. Bevilacqua9 minM. Rasul4 minL. Azzinaro2 minJ. GillNew
Centers
M. Bednostin10 min
Butler
Guards
J. Ellerbee28 min · TRJ. Jackson23 minE. Klafke15 min · TRE. McComb1 minB. WalkerNewS. AdlerNew
Forwards
C. Moore26 min · TRT. Anderson19 min · TRS. Calderon4 min · TRH. BrutusNewB. CardinalNewM. MaricNew
Centers
D. Jones20 minK. NdzieNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LAFBTLR
Scoring
69.1 #297Points per game79.4 #75
1.03 #289Points per possession1.12 #106
67.2 #274Pace (possessions)71.1 #69
Shooting
49.3 #278Effective FG%50.9 #199
32.1 #2733-point %32.7 #242
39.8 #1733-point attempt rate35.0 #276
32.5 #249Free throw rate42.1 #29
Possessions
15.3 #89Turnover rate15.9 #131
25.8 #326Offensive rebound rate34.5 #58
13.6 #175Assists per game15.5 #64
Defense
75.4 #200Points allowed77.5 #252
1.12 #275Points allowed per possession1.09 #195
53.6 #286Opponent effective FG%51.9 #208
36.0 #298Opponent 3-point %33.3 #142
15.1 #273Turnovers forced15.1 #272
71.4 #88Defensive rebound rate70.0 #163
5.3 #316Steals per game6.5 #178
2.3 #324Blocks per game3.2 #191

Lafayette

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Holy Cross77–82
  • Wvs Army83–77
  • W@ Colgate70–69
  • Lvs American61–75
  • W@ Holy Cross86–83

A week or more of rest.

Butler

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Providence81–91
  • W@ DePaul81–71
  • Lvs Creighton59–76
  • L@ Villanova73–82
  • Wvs Xavier80–75

A week or more of rest.