Navy Midshipmen at George Washington Revolutionaries: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:30 PM ETCharles E. Smith Center · at G Washington

#199NAVYNavy

LineGW -16.5moved 1 toward GW

Total148.5no move

Season records: Navy and G Washington
NAVY	This season	GW
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GW 79–65 · win probability GW 88%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

GW -16.5

moved 1 toward GW

Total

148.5

model 143.8 · Under by 4.5

Model edge

NAVY by 3

model vs market

Public on the spread

94% NAVY

93% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NAVY has more of the edges

NAVY 5, GW 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

NAVY has played the 311th-hardest schedule, GW the 95th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GWBig

NAVY offense vs GW defense

Offense 270th of 366 against a defense 95th, on the model’s ratings

NAVYBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NAVY 38.8, GW 34.9. Allowed: NAVY 26.0, GW 35.0

NAVYSmall

Three-pointers

NAVY hits 35.9% and allows 30.0%; GW hits 35.1% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 33.1% and 47.0% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: NAVY plays 66.0 a game (316th fastest), GW 70.2 (107th). Faster games mean more points

NAVYSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NAVY 53.1 and allows 48.3; GW 54.4 and allows 52.4

NAVYSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NAVY 46%, GW 13%. Transfers in: NAVY 0, GW 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

NAVYSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NAVY 16.8%, GW 18.1%. Forced: NAVY 18.3%, GW 17.8%

GWSmall

Home court

GW at home. This season: GW 0-0 at home, NAVY 0-0 away

Even

GW offense vs NAVY defense

Offense 112th of 366 against a defense 145th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NAVY 31.9%, GW 35.8%. Defensive: NAVY 72.6%, GW 71.3%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 15 to 19.5	993	94%	48%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	632	93%	49%	53%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	6763	75%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5	3547	74%	49%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	GW -16.5	GW -13.4	NAVY +3.1
Total	148.5	143.8	Under 4.7
Projected score	—	NAVY 65.2 · GW 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GW -7.8	—
1H total	67.3	—
1H projected score	NAVY 29.7 · GW 37.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY WWLLL	21-11	66%	10-5	3-3
GW LLLWL	15-19	44%	8-7	11-14

Venue/role: NAVY away, as underdog; GW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY UOOOO	15-17	47%	24-8
GW UUOOU	16-18	47%	18-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
GW	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Navy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs DSU	W66–59LU
Nov 11	vs PENN	W86–78WO
Nov 14	vs HAMP	No recent meeting

G Washington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs HAMP	W82–54WU
Nov 10	vs ELON	No recent meeting
Nov 13	vs HARV	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NAVY 0–1 GWGW leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NAVY 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 5, 2023-24	NAVY 77 @ GW 79	GW -11.5	NAVY W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Navy

32 games played

Straight up

24-8

75% wins

Against the spread

21-11

66% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-875%

W L L L W W L L W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

21-1166%

W L W W L W L L L L W W W W W L L W W W W W W W W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O U U O U O U U U U O U U U U O O U U O U O O O U O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PRES	W 76-55	-3.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 7	vsYALE	L 68-97	+5.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 165
Nov 11	@PSU	L 71-80	+11.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 18	@UNC	L 61-73	+26.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 134
Nov 22	vsNJIT	W 86-70	-17.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 26	vsGWEB	W 84-51	-10.5	W +22.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 28	@UNCW	L 57-87	+8.5	L −21.5	138.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsSELA	L 65-69	-3.5	L −7.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 3	@DSU	W 66-59	-15.5	L −8.5	132.5	U 125
Dec 7	vsAF	W 61-56	-9.5	L −4.5	133.5	U 117
Dec 19	vsCOPP	W 88-55	-20.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 31	vsBU	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	137.5	O 159
Jan 3	@HC	W 65-58	-5.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 123
Jan 7	vsBUCK	W 76-55	-8.5	W +12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsLAF	W 76-50	-8.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 12	@AMER	L 51-65	-2.5	L −16.5	139.5	U 116
Jan 17	@LEH	W 82-79	-3.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 161
Jan 21	vsHC	W 85-68	-11.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 153
Jan 24	vsARMY	W 84-56	-10.5	W +17.5	143.5	U 140
Jan 28	@BU	W 58-50	-1.5	W +6.5	138.5	U 108
Jan 31	vsL-MD	W 87-71	-9.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 158
Feb 4	@LAF	W 65-50	-3.5	W +11.5	139.5	U 115
Feb 7	vsAMER	W 82-73	-4.5	W +4.5	134.5	O 155
Feb 9	@BUCK	W 76-60	-6.5	W +9.5	135.5	O 136
Feb 14	@COLG	W 84-80	+1.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 18	vsLEH	W 72-49	-9.5	W +13.5	139.5	U 121
Feb 21	@ARMY	W 81-63	-8.5	W +9.5	139.5	O 144
Feb 25	@L-MD	W 78-51	-6.5	W +20.5	147.5	U 129
Feb 28	vsCOLG	W 85-69	-6.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 154
Mar 5	vsBUCK	W 74-69	-15.5	L −10.5	133.5	O 143
Mar 8	vsBU	L 72-73	-6.5	L −7.5	136.5	O 145
Mar 18	@WAKE	L 72-82	+9.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

+17.5

YALE

L 68-97

−23.5

PSU

L 71-80

+2.5

UNC

L 61-73

+14.5

NJIT

W 86-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 84-51

+22.5

UNCW

L 57-87

−21.5

SELA

L 65-69

−7.5

DSU

W 66-59

−8.5

W 61-56

−4.5

COPP

W 88-55

+12.5

W 82-77

+0.5

W 65-58

+1.5

BUCK

W 76-55

+12.5

LAF

W 76-50

+17.5

AMER

L 51-65

−16.5

LEH

W 82-79

−0.5

W 85-68

+5.5

ARMY

W 84-56

+17.5

W 58-50

+6.5

L-MD

W 87-71

+6.5

LAF

W 65-50

+11.5

AMER

W 82-73

+4.5

BUCK

W 76-60

+9.5

COLG

W 84-80

+5.5

LEH

W 72-49

+13.5

ARMY

W 81-63

+9.5

L-MD

W 78-51

+20.5

COLG

W 85-69

+9.5

BUCK

W 74-69

−10.5

L 72-73

−7.5

WAKE

L 72-82

−0.5

covered 21didn’t cover 11avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

−10.5

YALE

L 68-97

+17.5

PSU

L 71-80

−4.5

UNC

L 61-73

−26.5

NJIT

W 86-70

+15.5

GWEB

W 84-51

−18.5

UNCW

L 57-87

+5.5

SELA

L 65-69

−2.5

DSU

W 66-59

−7.5

W 61-56

−16.5

COPP

W 88-55

−2.5

W 82-77

+21.5

W 65-58

−14.5

BUCK

W 76-55

−6.5

LAF

W 76-50

−15.5

AMER

L 51-65

−23.5

LEH

W 82-79

+23.5

W 85-68

+18.5

ARMY

W 84-56

−3.5

W 58-50

−30.5

L-MD

W 87-71

+14.5

LAF

W 65-50

−24.5

AMER

W 82-73

+20.5

BUCK

W 76-60

+0.5

COLG

W 84-80

+24.5

LEH

W 72-49

−18.5

ARMY

W 81-63

+4.5

L-MD

W 78-51

−18.5

COLG

W 85-69

+12.5

BUCK

W 74-69

+9.5

L 72-73

+8.5

WAKE

L 72-82

+5.5

over 15under 17avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

G Washington

34 games played

Straight up

18-16

53% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1653%

W W W W W L W L W W L L W W L W L L W L L L L W W L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L W W W W L W L L L L W W W L W L L W W L L L L W L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

U O O O U O O O U O U U O U U O O U U U U U O U U O O U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsME	W 67-47	-20.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	vsUSF	W 99-95	+1.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsAMER	W 107-67	-17.5	W +22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsODU	W 96-73	-15.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsUMBC	W 89-52	-22.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 23	vsMCN	L 86-92	-5.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMTSU	W 92-79	-9.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMUR	L 95-96	-7.5	L −8.5	167.5	O 191
Dec 2	@ARMY	W 84-70	-19.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsW&M	W 99-86	-13.5	L −0.5	174.5	O 185
Dec 10	vsDEL	L 58-70	-21.5	L −33.5	152.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsFLA	L 70-80	+14.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 150
Dec 31	@RICH	W 99-85	-2.5	W +11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 3	vsLAS	W 77-55	-16.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 6	@DAY	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 10	vsLUC	W 101-66	-14.5	W +20.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsDAV	L 79-84	-9.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 19	@GMU	L 64-69	+1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsRICH	W 85-69	-10.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@SLU	L 76-79	+10.5	W +7.5	167.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsFOR	L 65-79	-11.5	L −25.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 4	@JOES	L 73-76	-1.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 149
Feb 7	@DUQ	L 86-88	-1.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 174
Feb 10	vsURI	W 75-70	-5.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 13	vsGMU	W 72-53	-3.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 17	@VCU	L 75-89	+6.5	L −7.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 24	@LAS	W 104-77	-8.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 181
Feb 27	vsDAY	L 66-68	-2.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 134
Mar 4	vsSBU	W 91-82	-7.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 7	@LUC	L 62-68	-9.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 130
Mar 12	vsFOR	W 66-62	-7.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 128
Mar 13	vsSLU	L 81-88	+6.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 169
Mar 18	@UVU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 157
Mar 22	@UNM	L 61-86	+6.5	L −18.5	161.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 67-47

−0.5

USF

W 99-95

+5.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+7.5

UMBC

W 89-52

+14.5

MCN

L 86-92

−11.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+3.5

MUR

L 95-96

−8.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−5.5

W&M

W 99-86

−0.5

DEL

L 58-70

−33.5

FLA

L 70-80

+4.5

RICH

W 99-85

+11.5

LAS

W 77-55

+5.5

DAY

L 72-79

−4.5

LUC

W 101-66

+20.5

DAV

L 79-84

−14.5

GMU

L 64-69

−3.5

RICH

W 85-69

+5.5

SLU

L 76-79

+7.5

FOR

L 65-79

−25.5

JOES

L 73-76

−4.5

DUQ

L 86-88

−3.5

URI

W 75-70

−0.5

GMU

W 72-53

+15.5

VCU

L 75-89

−7.5

LAS

W 104-77

+18.5

DAY

L 66-68

−4.5

SBU

W 91-82

+1.5

LUC

L 62-68

−15.5

FOR

W 66-62

−3.5

SLU

L 81-88

−0.5

UVU

W 79-78

+2.5

UNM

L 61-86

−18.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 67-47

−29.5

USF

W 99-95

+34.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+13.5

UMBC

W 89-52

−19.5

MCN

L 86-92

+20.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+12.5

MUR

L 95-96

+23.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−2.5

W&M

W 99-86

+10.5

DEL

L 58-70

−24.5

FLA

L 70-80

−12.5

RICH

W 99-85

+21.5

LAS

W 77-55

−18.5

DAY

L 72-79

−3.5

LUC

W 101-66

+12.5

DAV

L 79-84

+12.5

GMU

L 64-69

−20.5

RICH

W 85-69

−5.5

SLU

L 76-79

−12.5

FOR

L 65-79

−6.5

JOES

L 73-76

−6.5

DUQ

L 86-88

+15.5

URI

W 75-70

−6.5

GMU

W 72-53

−24.5

VCU

L 75-89

+2.5

LAS

W 104-77

+34.5

DAY

L 66-68

−18.5

SBU

W 91-82

+15.5

LUC

L 62-68

−18.5

FOR

W 66-62

−16.5

SLU

L 81-88

+10.5

UVU

W 79-78

+4.5

UNM

L 61-86

−14.5

over 16under 18avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

G Washington has the better starters

Position by position: Navy 0, G Washington 3, even 2

NavyBetterG Washington

G J. Kim10 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

GWSmall

G A. Phillips TR13.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

G J. Pennick7.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 12

GWSmall

G O. Witherspoon TR7.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 34

G C. Cole6 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 41

GWSmall

G J. Aranguren8.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 70

G D. Burnett1.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G F. Kossaras TR4.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 37

G N. Howard1.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

No call

F A. Shaw TR4.5 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48

NavyBetterG Washington

NAVY offense270th of 366 · -8.2

GWBig

GW defense95th of 366 · -0.5

NAVY defense145th of 366 · -3.1

Even

GW offense112th of 366 · -1.9

Backcourt-5.8 · 5 players

GWSmall

Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

Bench-0.2 · 5 players

Even

Bench-0.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNAVY betterGW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Navy

Guards

J. Kim31 minJ. Pennick25 minC. Cole19 minD. Burnett6 minN. Howard3 minJ. Gabbidon1 min

Forwards

C. Jackson2 minJ. Ashley2 minO. Gray2 minT. RajiNewC. PollockNewS. GriffinNew

Centers

C. CraneNew

G Washington

Guards

A. Phillips34 min · TRO. Witherspoon28 min · TRJ. Aranguren24 minF. Kossaras16 min · TRT. Arceneaux16 min · TRA. Arrington1 min

Forwards

A. Shaw26 min · TRA. Vukovic15 min · TRD. James15 min · TRM. Arrington14 min · TRR. Frost7 min · TRL. UrbihaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NAVY74.1 #194

GW80.9 #46

Points per possession

NAVY1.12 #97

GW1.15 #63

Pace (possessions)

NAVY66.0 #316

GW70.2 #107

Shooting

Effective FG%

NAVY53.1 #100

GW54.4 #55

3-point %

NAVY35.9 #64

GW35.1 #106

3-point attempt rate

NAVY33.1 #314

GW47.0 #33

Free throw rate

NAVY38.8 #82

GW34.9 #184

Possessions

Turnover rate

NAVY16.8 #190

GW18.1 #276

Offensive rebound rate

NAVY31.9 #126

GW35.8 #26

Assists per game

NAVY15.8 #52

GW15.4 #69

Defense

Points allowed

NAVY65.6 #10

GW75.2 #195

Points allowed per possession

NAVY1.00 #23

GW1.08 #149

Opponent effective FG%

NAVY48.3 #42

GW52.4 #234

Opponent 3-point %

NAVY30.0 #7

GW33.9 #175

Turnovers forced

NAVY18.3 #84

GW17.8 #110

Defensive rebound rate

NAVY72.6 #49

GW71.3 #91

Steals per game

NAVY7.5 #84

GW7.2 #103

Blocks per game

NAVY3.3 #185

GW3.5 #142

NAVY		GW
Scoring
74.1 #194	Points per game	80.9 #46
1.12 #97	Points per possession	1.15 #63
66.0 #316	Pace (possessions)	70.2 #107
Shooting
53.1 #100	Effective FG%	54.4 #55
35.9 #64	3-point %	35.1 #106
33.1 #314	3-point attempt rate	47.0 #33
38.8 #82	Free throw rate	34.9 #184
Possessions
16.8 #190	Turnover rate	18.1 #276
31.9 #126	Offensive rebound rate	35.8 #26
15.8 #52	Assists per game	15.4 #69
Defense
65.6 #10	Points allowed	75.2 #195
1.00 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #149
48.3 #42	Opponent effective FG%	52.4 #234
30.0 #7	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #175
18.3 #84	Turnovers forced	17.8 #110
72.6 #49	Defensive rebound rate	71.3 #91
7.5 #84	Steals per game	7.2 #103
3.3 #185	Blocks per game	3.5 #142

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Navy

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Wake Forest72–82
Lvs Boston U72–73
Wvs Bucknell74–69
Wvs Colgate85–69
W@ Loyola MD78–51

A week or more of rest.

G Washington

18-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ New Mexico61–86
W@ Utah Valley79–78
Lvs Saint Louis81–88
Wvs Fordham66–62
L@ Loyola Chicago62–68

A week or more of rest.

Navy Midshipmen at George Washington Revolutionaries

What could decide it: NAVY has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market

Public betting

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Navy

G Washington

G Washington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Navy

G Washington