T-Mobile Arena · Neutral site
#17GONZGonzaga AP #15
vs
#23PURPurdue
LineGONZ -5.5moved 1 toward GONZ
Total154.5down 1 from 155.5
Season records: Gonzaga and Purdue
GONZThis seasonPUR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GONZ 79–73 · win probability GONZ 68%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
GONZ -5.5
moved 1 toward GONZ
Total
154.5
model 151.5 · Under by 3
Model edge
Even
matches the market
Public on the spread
98% PUR
80% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GONZ has more of the edges

GONZ 2, PUR 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GONZBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GONZ 13.7%, PUR 13.7%. Forced: GONZ 19.9%, PUR 15.3%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: GONZ plays 70.4 a game (98th fastest), PUR 65.4 (333rd). Faster games mean more points
GONZSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: GONZ 55.6 and allows 46.3; PUR 57.6 and allows 52.4
Context
Schedule so far
GONZ has played the 84th-hardest schedule, PUR the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GONZ 21%, PUR 43%. Transfers in: GONZ 5, PUR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
PUR offense vs GONZ defense
Offense 38th of 366 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
GONZ hits 33.3% and allows 30.6%; PUR hits 38.3% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 30.8% and 40.2% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: GONZ 31.0, PUR 28.6. Allowed: GONZ 30.9, PUR 25.5
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GONZ 34.8%, PUR 36.4%. Defensive: GONZ 74.3%, PUR 72.9%
Even
GONZ offense vs PUR defense
Offense 14th of 366 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Neutral-site favorites of 3 to 6.592866%50%47%
Non-conference games at this spread173667%50%49%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward GONZ
Total
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
GONZ -241 · PUR +197
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened GONZ -4.5 · now GONZ -5.5 · moved 1 toward GONZmodel GONZ -5.5 matches the line
Opened 155.5 · now 154 · moved 2 downmodel 151.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
GONZ -5.5SpreadPUR +5.5
Bets
Money
Money is 18 pts ahead of bets on GONZ -5.5
Over 154.5TotalUnder 154.5
Bets
Money
GONZWinnerPUR
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
GONZPUROverUnderGONZPUR
BetMGMMGM+5.5-105-5.5-115154.5-105154.5-115-225+185
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag+5.5-110-5.5-110153.5-120153.5+100-245+203
BetRiversBetRivers+5.5-110-5.5-113153.5-115153.5-108-230+170
BetUSBetUS+5.5-110-5.5-110153.5-120153.5+100-245+205
BovadaBovada+5-115-5-105154-105154-115-225+185
DraftKingsDK+5.5-105-5.5-115154.5-108154.5-112-238+195
FanDuelFD+5.5-108-5.5-112154.5-110154.5-110-245+198
LowVig.agLowVig.ag+5.5-106-5.5-106153.5-119153.5+102-245+203

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadGONZ -5.5GONZ -5.5—
Total154.5151.5Under 3.0
Projected score—GONZ 78.5 · PUR 73

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadGONZ -3.4—
1H total70.8—
1H projected scoreGONZ 37.1 · PUR 33.7—

Gonzaga has the better starters

Position by position: Gonzaga 2, Purdue 0, even 3
GonzagaBetterPurdue
G J. Bennett TR15.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 85
Even
G C. Cox8.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82
G X. Lee TR11.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.2 ast Score 94
GONZSmall
G G. Harris4.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
F C. Wiggins TR13.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 81
Even
G J. Benter4.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
F B. Huff17.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99
GONZBig
G O. Mayer5.5 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
C M. Diop TR13.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 86
Even
C D. Jacobsen5.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 88
GonzagaBetterPurdue
GONZ offense14th of 366 · +9.4
Even
PUR defense18th of 366 · +6.0
GONZ defense21st of 366 · +5.3
Even
PUR offense38th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt+5.5 · 2 players
GONZBig
Backcourt+2.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
GONZBig
Frontcourt+1.8 · 1 player
Bench+2.8 · 2 players
GONZSmall
Bench-0.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestGONZ betterPUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Gonzaga
Guards
J. Bennett35 min · TRX. Lee27 min · TRD. Fogle17 minI. Harwell14 min · TRN. De SousaNewA. MetzNew
Forwards
C. Wiggins28 min · TRB. Huff26 minI. AlmansaNewP. JeffersonNewS. FunchesNewL. FosterNew
Centers
M. Diop30 min · TR
Purdue
Guards
C. Cox24 minG. Harris16 minJ. Benter15 minO. Mayer14 minJ. Rayl2 minJ. Lusk2 min
Forwards
S. KingNewC. PierceNewE. ShahrvinNewR. BurgessNewR. KnightNew
Centers
D. Jacobsen13 minS. HuanNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GONZPUR
Scoring
84.3 #17Points per game81.6 #35
1.20 #13Points per possession1.25 #2
70.4 #98Pace (possessions)65.4 #333
Shooting
55.6 #25Effective FG%57.6 #10
33.3 #2123-point %38.3 #11
30.8 #3423-point attempt rate40.2 #164
31.0 #282Free throw rate28.6 #336
Possessions
13.7 #17Turnover rate13.7 #16
34.8 #52Offensive rebound rate36.4 #19
18.4 #7Assists per game19.6 #2
Defense
66.2 #15Points allowed70.5 #65
0.94 #1Points allowed per possession1.08 #162
46.3 #15Opponent effective FG%52.4 #232
30.6 #23Opponent 3-point %34.1 #192
19.9 #25Turnovers forced15.3 #263
74.3 #16Defensive rebound rate72.9 #39
8.4 #23Steals per game5.5 #297
3.7 #116Blocks per game2.8 #257

Gonzaga

31-4 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas68–74
  • Wvs Kennesaw St73–64
  • Wvs Santa Clara79–68
  • Wvs Oregon St65–56
  • L@ Saint Mary's59–70

A week or more of rest.

Purdue

30-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona64–79
  • Wvs Texas79–77
  • Wvs Miami79–69
  • Wvs Queens University Royals104–71
  • Wvs Michigan80–72

A week or more of rest.