LSU Tigers at Gonzaga Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ETSpokane Numerica Veterans Arena · at Gonzaga

#51LSULSU

#17GONZGonzaga AP #15

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: LSU and Gonzaga
LSU	This season	GONZ
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GONZ 86–72 · win probability GONZ 88%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 157.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GONZ has more of the edges

LSU 0, GONZ 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GONZBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LSU 15.5%, GONZ 13.7%. Forced: LSU 14.0%, GONZ 19.9%

GONZBig

Three-pointers

LSU hits 33.1% and allows 35.4%; GONZ hits 33.3% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 34.5% and 30.8% of their shots

GONZBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LSU 33.1%, GONZ 34.8%. Defensive: LSU 68.3%, GONZ 74.3%

GONZBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LSU 52.8 and allows 50.9; GONZ 55.6 and allows 46.3

GONZSmall

GONZ offense vs LSU defense

Offense 14th of 366 against a defense 77th, on the model’s ratings

GONZSmall

Home court

GONZ at home. This season: GONZ 0-0 at home, LSU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LSU 0%, GONZ 21%. Transfers in: LSU 6, GONZ 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

LSU has played the 49th-hardest schedule, GONZ the 84th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LSU 40.9, GONZ 31.0. Allowed: LSU 37.8, GONZ 30.9

Even

LSU offense vs GONZ defense

Offense 37th of 366 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: LSU plays 70.5 a game (95th fastest), GONZ 70.4 (98th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GONZ -13.6	—
Total	—	157.9	—
Projected score	—	LSU 72.1 · GONZ 85.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GONZ -8.0	—
1H total	73.8	—
1H projected score	LSU 32.9 · GONZ 40.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU WLLLW	18-14	56%	8-2	—
GONZ LLWLL	18-17	51%	8-7	—

Venue/role: LSU away; GONZ home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU OUOOO	16-16	50%	15-17
GONZ UUUUU	11-24	31%	31-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSU	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
GONZ	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

LSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs ULM	W95–60WO
Nov 21	vs QUC	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs ASU	No recent meeting

Gonzaga

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs MTST	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs KSU	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs UCLA	W82–72LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

LSU

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1456%

W W L L W L W W L W L L W W L W W W L W L W L L W W W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O U O O O U O U U O U O U U O U U U U O U O U U U O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsTAR	W 96-60	-15.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 10	vsNOLA	W 93-58	-19.5	W +15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsFIU	W 98-81	-21.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsALCN	W 107-81	-32.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 21	vsOMA	W 99-73	-20.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 28	vsDRKE	W 71-62	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsDEP	W 96-63	-5.5	W +27.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 3	@BC	W 78-69	-7.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 7	vsTTU	L 58-82	+5.5	L −18.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 13	vsSMU	W 89-77	-1.5	W +10.5	158.5	O 166
Dec 19	vsSELA	W 78-65	-24.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 22	vsPV	W 104-90	-29.5	L −15.5	161.5	O 194
Dec 29	vsUSM	W 90-62	-21.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 3	@TA&M	L 72-75	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	U 147
Jan 6	vsSC	L 68-78	-7.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 10	@VAN	L 73-84	+13.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 157
Jan 14	vsUK	L 74-75	+3.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 149
Jan 17	vsMIZ	W 78-70	-1.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 148
Jan 20	@FLA	L 61-79	+15.5	L −2.5	158.5	U 140
Jan 24	@ARK	L 81-85	+10.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 28	vsMSST	L 66-80	-7.5	L −21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@SC	W 92-87	-2.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 7	vsUGA	L 71-83	+1.5	L −10.5	161.5	U 154
Feb 10	vsARK	L 62-91	+4.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 153
Feb 14	@TENN	L 63-73	+14.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 17	@TEX	L 85-88	+10.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 173
Feb 21	vsALA	L 83-90	+7.5	W +0.5	172.5	O 173
Feb 25	@MISS	W 106-99	+2.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 205
Feb 28	vsOU	L 67-83	-1.5	L −17.5	155.5	U 150
Mar 3	@AUB	L 74-88	+10.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 162
Mar 7	vsTA&M	L 91-94	+2.5	L −0.5	161.5	O 185
Mar 11	vsUK	L 82-87	+8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+20.5

NOLA

W 93-58

+15.5

FIU

W 98-81

−4.5

ALCN

W 107-81

−6.5

OMA

W 99-73

+5.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−2.5

DEP

W 96-63

+27.5

W 78-69

+1.5

TTU

L 58-82

−18.5

SMU

W 89-77

+10.5

SELA

W 78-65

−11.5

W 104-90

−15.5

USM

W 90-62

+6.5

TA&M

L 72-75

+2.5

L 68-78

−17.5

VAN

L 73-84

+2.5

L 74-75

+2.5

MIZ

W 78-70

+6.5

FLA

L 61-79

−2.5

ARK

L 81-85

+6.5

MSST

L 66-80

−21.5

W 92-87

+2.5

UGA

L 71-83

−10.5

ARK

L 62-91

−24.5

TENN

L 63-73

+4.5

TEX

L 85-88

+7.5

ALA

L 83-90

+0.5

MISS

W 106-99

+9.5

L 67-83

−17.5

AUB

L 74-88

−3.5

TA&M

L 91-94

−0.5

L 82-87

+3.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+7.5

NOLA

W 93-58

−11.5

FIU

W 98-81

+20.5

ALCN

W 107-81

+32.5

OMA

W 99-73

+8.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−18.5

DEP

W 96-63

+6.5

W 78-69

−2.5

TTU

L 58-82

−14.5

SMU

W 89-77

+7.5

SELA

W 78-65

−1.5

W 104-90

+32.5

USM

W 90-62

−2.5

TA&M

L 72-75

−21.5

L 68-78

+0.5

VAN

L 73-84

−2.5

L 74-75

−2.5

MIZ

W 78-70

−0.5

FLA

L 61-79

−18.5

ARK

L 81-85

+2.5

MSST

L 66-80

−8.5

W 92-87

+31.5

UGA

L 71-83

−7.5

ARK

L 62-91

−6.5

TENN

L 63-73

−7.5

TEX

L 85-88

+22.5

ALA

L 83-90

+0.5

MISS

W 106-99

+57.5

L 67-83

−5.5

AUB

L 74-88

+6.5

TA&M

L 91-94

+23.5

L 82-87

+17.5

over 16under 16avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Gonzaga

35 games played

Straight up

31-4

89% wins

Against the spread

18-17

51% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

31-489%

W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1751%

W W W L W W W L W W L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W W W W L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-2431%

U U U U O O O U U O O O O U O U U O U U U U U O U U O U U U U U U U U

8 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTXSO	W 98-43	-29.5	W +25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 8	vsOU	W 83-68	-10.5	W +4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsCREI	W 90-63	-12.5	W +14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	@ASU	W 77-65	-13.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsSUU	W 122-50	-35.5	W +36.5	160.5	O 172
Nov 24	vsALA	W 95-85	-4.5	W +5.5	178.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsMD	W 100-61	-14.5	W +24.5	157.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsMICH	L 61-101	-3.5	L −43.5	165.5	U 162
Dec 5	vsUK	W 94-59	-5.5	W +29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 7	vsUNF	W 109-58	-42.5	W +8.5	166.5	O 167
Dec 13	vsUCLA	W 82-72	-10.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 154
Dec 17	vsCAM	W 98-70	-36.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 168
Dec 21	vsORE	W 91-82	-12.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 173
Dec 28	@PEPP	W 96-56	-29.5	W +10.5	152.5	U 152
Dec 30	@USD	W 99-93	-29.5	L −23.5	160.5	O 192
Jan 2	vsSEA	W 80-72	-24.5	L −16.5	155.5	U 152
Jan 4	vsLMU	W 82-47	-25.5	W +9.5	154.5	U 129
Jan 8	vsSCU	W 89-77	-17.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 15	@WSU	W 86-65	-16.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 151
Jan 17	@SEA	W 71-50	-9.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 121
Jan 21	vsPEPP	W 84-60	-28.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 144
Jan 24	vsSF	W 68-66	-15.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 134
Jan 31	vsSMC	W 73-65	-8.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 4	@PORT	L 80-87	-22.5	L −29.5	152.5	O 167
Feb 7	@ORST	W 81-61	-19.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 10	vsWSU	W 83-53	-21.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 136
Feb 14	@SCU	W 94-86	-4.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 18	@SF	W 80-59	-15.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 21	vsPAC	W 71-62	-22.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 133
Feb 25	vsPORT	W 89-48	-26.5	W +14.5	150.5	U 137
Feb 28	@SMC	L 59-70	-2.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 9	vsORST	W 65-56	-20.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 121
Mar 10	vsSCU	W 79-68	-8.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 19	vsKENN	W 73-64	-20.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 137
Mar 21	vsTEX	L 68-74	-5.5	L −11.5	146.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

+25.5

W 83-68

+4.5

CREI

W 90-63

+14.5

ASU

W 77-65

−1.5

SUU

W 122-50

+36.5

ALA

W 95-85

+5.5

W 100-61

+24.5

MICH

L 61-101

−43.5

W 94-59

+29.5

UNF

W 109-58

+8.5

UCLA

W 82-72

−0.5

CAM

W 98-70

−8.5

ORE

W 91-82

−3.5

PEPP

W 96-56

+10.5

USD

W 99-93

−23.5

SEA

W 80-72

−16.5

LMU

W 82-47

+9.5

SCU

W 89-77

−5.5

WSU

W 86-65

+4.5

SEA

W 71-50

+11.5

PEPP

W 84-60

−4.5

W 68-66

−13.5

SMC

W 73-65

−0.5

PORT

L 80-87

−29.5

ORST

W 81-61

+0.5

WSU

W 83-53

+8.5

SCU

W 94-86

+3.5

W 80-59

+5.5

PAC

W 71-62

−13.5

PORT

W 89-48

+14.5

SMC

L 59-70

−13.5

ORST

W 65-56

−11.5

SCU

W 79-68

+2.5

KENN

W 73-64

−11.5

TEX

L 68-74

−11.5

covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

−16.5

W 83-68

−15.5

CREI

W 90-63

−11.5

ASU

W 77-65

−16.5

SUU

W 122-50

+11.5

ALA

W 95-85

+1.5

W 100-61

+3.5

MICH

L 61-101

−3.5

W 94-59

−6.5

UNF

W 109-58

+0.5

UCLA

W 82-72

+6.5

CAM

W 98-70

+7.5

ORE

W 91-82

+17.5

PEPP

W 96-56

−0.5

USD

W 99-93

+31.5

SEA

W 80-72

−3.5

LMU

W 82-47

−25.5

SCU

W 89-77

+2.5

WSU

W 86-65

−4.5

SEA

W 71-50

−29.5

PEPP

W 84-60

−6.5

W 68-66

−15.5

SMC

W 73-65

−6.5

PORT

L 80-87

+14.5

ORST

W 81-61

−7.5

WSU

W 83-53

−20.5

SCU

W 94-86

+21.5

W 80-59

−12.5

PAC

W 71-62

−11.5

PORT

W 89-48

−13.5

SMC

L 59-70

−14.5

ORST

W 65-56

−24.5

SCU

W 79-68

−10.5

KENN

W 73-64

−15.5

TEX

L 68-74

−4.5

over 11under 24avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Gonzaga has the better starters

Position by position: LSU 0, Gonzaga 1, even 4

LSUBetterGonzaga

G D. Dent TR13.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 7.6 ast Score 95

Even

G J. Bennett TR15.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 85

G A. Nunez TR9.6 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 17

GONZBig

G X. Lee TR11.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.2 ast Score 94

G S. Clark TR11.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2 ast Score 87

Even

F C. Wiggins TR13.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 81

G A. Bashir TR13.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92

Even

F B. Huff17.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99

F M. Dioubate TR8.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 94

Even

C M. Diop TR13.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 86

LSUBetterGonzaga

LSU offense37th of 366 · +5.0

Even

GONZ defense21st of 366 · +5.3

LSU defense77th of 366 · +0.5

GONZSmall

GONZ offense14th of 366 · +9.4

Backcourt+5.8 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt+5.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.1 · 1 player

GONZBig

Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players

Bench+0.4 · 1 player

GONZSmall

Bench+2.8 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestLSU betterGONZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

LSU

Guards

D. Dent34 min · TRA. Nunez29 min · TRS. Clark29 min · TRA. Bashir25 min · TRD. Ugochukwu16 min · TRL. StansburyNew

Forwards

M. Dioubate22 min · TRS. NiangNewJ. BenderNew

Centers

B. DessertNewG. LevyNewS. PearsonNewM. RuzicNew

Gonzaga

Guards

J. Bennett35 min · TRX. Lee27 min · TRD. Fogle17 minI. Harwell14 min · TRN. De SousaNewA. MetzNew

Forwards

C. Wiggins28 min · TRB. Huff26 minI. AlmansaNewP. JeffersonNewS. FunchesNewL. FosterNew

Centers

M. Diop30 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LSU81.4 #41

GONZ84.3 #17

Points per possession

LSU1.15 #60

GONZ1.20 #13

Pace (possessions)

LSU70.5 #95

GONZ70.4 #98

Shooting

Effective FG%

LSU52.8 #111

GONZ55.6 #25

3-point %

LSU33.1 #225

GONZ33.3 #212

3-point attempt rate

LSU34.5 #286

GONZ30.8 #342

Free throw rate

LSU40.9 #49

GONZ31.0 #282

Possessions

Turnover rate

LSU15.5 #106

GONZ13.7 #17

Offensive rebound rate

LSU33.1 #87

GONZ34.8 #52

Assists per game

LSU14.7 #106

GONZ18.4 #7

Defense

Points allowed

LSU78.5 #279

GONZ66.2 #15

Points allowed per possession

LSU1.12 #270

GONZ0.94 #1

Opponent effective FG%

LSU50.9 #150

GONZ46.3 #15

Opponent 3-point %

LSU35.4 #271

GONZ30.6 #23

Turnovers forced

LSU14.0 #335

GONZ19.9 #25

Defensive rebound rate

LSU68.3 #239

GONZ74.3 #16

Steals per game

LSU6.0 #240

GONZ8.4 #23

Blocks per game

LSU3.9 #87

GONZ3.7 #116

LSU		GONZ
Scoring
81.4 #41	Points per game	84.3 #17
1.15 #60	Points per possession	1.20 #13
70.5 #95	Pace (possessions)	70.4 #98
Shooting
52.8 #111	Effective FG%	55.6 #25
33.1 #225	3-point %	33.3 #212
34.5 #286	3-point attempt rate	30.8 #342
40.9 #49	Free throw rate	31.0 #282
Possessions
15.5 #106	Turnover rate	13.7 #17
33.1 #87	Offensive rebound rate	34.8 #52
14.7 #106	Assists per game	18.4 #7
Defense
78.5 #279	Points allowed	66.2 #15
1.12 #270	Points allowed per possession	0.94 #1
50.9 #150	Opponent effective FG%	46.3 #15
35.4 #271	Opponent 3-point %	30.6 #23
14.0 #335	Turnovers forced	19.9 #25
68.3 #239	Defensive rebound rate	74.3 #16
6.0 #240	Steals per game	8.4 #23
3.9 #87	Blocks per game	3.7 #116

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

LSU

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kentucky82–87
Lvs Texas A&M91–94
L@ Auburn74–88
Lvs Oklahoma67–83
W@ Ole Miss106–99

A week or more of rest.

Gonzaga

31-4 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas68–74
Wvs Kennesaw St73–64
Wvs Santa Clara79–68
Wvs Oregon St65–56
L@ Saint Mary's59–70

A week or more of rest.

LSU Tigers at Gonzaga Bulldogs

What could decide it: GONZ has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

LSU

Gonzaga

Gonzaga has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

LSU

Gonzaga