New Mexico State Aggies at Gonzaga Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 AM ETMcCarthey Athletic Center · at Gonzaga

#17GONZGonzaga AP #15

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: New Mexico St and Gonzaga
NMSU	This season	GONZ
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GONZ 89–63 · win probability GONZ 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GONZ has more of the edges

NMSU 0, GONZ 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GONZBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NMSU 15.0%, GONZ 13.7%. Forced: NMSU 14.7%, GONZ 19.9%

GONZBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NMSU 48.5 and allows 48.7; GONZ 55.6 and allows 46.3

GONZBig

NMSU offense vs GONZ defense

Offense 151st of 366 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

GONZBig

GONZ offense vs NMSU defense

Offense 14th of 366 against a defense 125th, on the model’s ratings

GONZSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NMSU 32.5%, GONZ 34.8%. Defensive: NMSU 69.7%, GONZ 74.3%

Context

Schedule so far

NMSU has played the 174th-hardest schedule, GONZ the 84th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GONZSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NMSU 34.9, GONZ 31.0. Allowed: NMSU 44.2, GONZ 30.9

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NMSU plays 68.1 a game (224th fastest), GONZ 70.4 (98th). Faster games mean more points

GONZSmall

Three-pointers

NMSU hits 32.4% and allows 32.4%; GONZ hits 33.3% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 38.7% and 30.8% of their shots

GONZSmall

Home court

GONZ at home. This season: GONZ 0-0 at home, NMSU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NMSU 22%, GONZ 21%. Transfers in: NMSU 6, GONZ 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GONZ -25.7	—
Total	—	151.3	—
Projected score	—	NMSU 62.8 · GONZ 88.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GONZ -15.2	—
1H total	70.7	—
1H projected score	NMSU 27.8 · GONZ 43	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU WLWWL	14-15	48%	5-6	—
GONZ LLWLL	18-17	51%	8-7	—

Venue/role: NMSU away; GONZ home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU OOUUU	16-13	55%	13-16
GONZ UUUUU	11-24	31%	31-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
GONZ	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Mexico St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	@ UTEP	W67–63LU
Nov 15	vs SDSU	No recent meeting
Nov 19	vs UTEP	W67–63LU

Gonzaga

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs LSU	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs MTST	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs KSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

New Mexico St

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-13

55% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

W W W W L L L W L L W L L W L L L L W L L W W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1548%

W W W W L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W L W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1355%

O O U U O O O O O O U U U O O U U U U O O O U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 15	vsUNM	W 76-68	+3.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 21	vsSAM	W 81-72	-8.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 25	vsUCI	W 57-45	+2.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 102
Nov 26	vsGAST	W 77-58	-12.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 135
Dec 2	vsUSA	L 75-77	-2.5	L −4.5	135.5	O 152
Dec 6	@ACU	L 69-77	-1.5	L −9.5	131.5	O 146
Dec 13	vsTLSA	L 70-83	+4.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 153
Dec 21	vsSHSU	W 87-78	-5.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 165
Jan 2	@FIU	L 74-89	-1.5	L −16.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 4	@MOST	L 82-89	+1.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 171
Jan 8	vsWKU	W 80-64	-2.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 144
Jan 10	vsMTSU	L 55-59	-3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 114
Jan 15	@LIB	L 71-73	+8.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 144
Jan 17	@DEL	W 97-68	-4.5	W +24.5	134.5	O 165
Jan 22	vsMOST	L 75-84	-6.5	L −15.5	144.5	O 159
Jan 24	vsFIU	L 78-81	-7.5	L −10.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 28	vsDEL	L 64-73	-13.5	L −22.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 31	@KENN	L 53-76	+3.5	L −19.5	159.5	U 129
Feb 4	@LT	W 72-63	+1.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 7	@UTEP	L 88-91	-1.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 179
Feb 11	vsLIB	L 75-77	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 14	@JXST	W 79-70	+1.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 149
Feb 21	vsUTEP	W 67-63	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 130
Feb 26	@WKU	L 70-93	+4.5	L −18.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 28	@MTSU	L 85-86	+5.5	W +4.5	148.5	O 171
Mar 5	vsJXST	W 77-75	-6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 152
Mar 7	vsKENN	W 79-76	-1.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 155
Mar 10	vsJXST	W 68-63	-1.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 11	vsSHSU	L 61-69	+4.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNM

W 76-68

+11.5

SAM

W 81-72

+0.5

UCI

W 57-45

+14.5

GAST

W 77-58

+6.5

USA

L 75-77

−4.5

ACU

L 69-77

−9.5

TLSA

L 70-83

−8.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+3.5

FIU

L 74-89

−16.5

MOST

L 82-89

−5.5

WKU

W 80-64

+13.5

MTSU

L 55-59

−7.5

LIB

L 71-73

+6.5

DEL

W 97-68

+24.5

MOST

L 75-84

−15.5

FIU

L 78-81

−10.5

DEL

L 64-73

−22.5

KENN

L 53-76

−19.5

W 72-63

+10.5

UTEP

L 88-91

−4.5

LIB

L 75-77

+1.5

JXST

W 79-70

+10.5

UTEP

W 67-63

−3.5

WKU

L 70-93

−18.5

MTSU

L 85-86

+4.5

JXST

W 77-75

−4.5

KENN

W 79-76

+1.5

JXST

W 68-63

+3.5

SHSU

L 61-69

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNM

W 76-68

+4.5

SAM

W 81-72

+7.5

UCI

W 57-45

−37.5

GAST

W 77-58

−1.5

USA

L 75-77

+16.5

ACU

L 69-77

+14.5

TLSA

L 70-83

+6.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+11.5

FIU

L 74-89

+5.5

MOST

L 82-89

+36.5

WKU

W 80-64

−10.5

MTSU

L 55-59

−30.5

LIB

L 71-73

−1.5

DEL

W 97-68

+30.5

MOST

L 75-84

+14.5

FIU

L 78-81

−0.5

DEL

L 64-73

−0.5

KENN

L 53-76

−30.5

W 72-63

−0.5

UTEP

L 88-91

+40.5

LIB

L 75-77

+7.5

JXST

W 79-70

+9.5

UTEP

W 67-63

−12.5

WKU

L 70-93

+11.5

MTSU

L 85-86

+22.5

JXST

W 77-75

+6.5

KENN

W 79-76

−2.5

JXST

W 68-63

−10.5

SHSU

L 61-69

−24.5

over 16under 13avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Gonzaga

35 games played

Straight up

31-4

89% wins

Against the spread

18-17

51% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

31-489%

W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1751%

W W W L W W W L W W L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W W W W L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-2431%

U U U U O O O U U O O O O U O U U O U U U U U O U U O U U U U U U U U

8 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTXSO	W 98-43	-29.5	W +25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 8	vsOU	W 83-68	-10.5	W +4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsCREI	W 90-63	-12.5	W +14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	@ASU	W 77-65	-13.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsSUU	W 122-50	-35.5	W +36.5	160.5	O 172
Nov 24	vsALA	W 95-85	-4.5	W +5.5	178.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsMD	W 100-61	-14.5	W +24.5	157.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsMICH	L 61-101	-3.5	L −43.5	165.5	U 162
Dec 5	vsUK	W 94-59	-5.5	W +29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 7	vsUNF	W 109-58	-42.5	W +8.5	166.5	O 167
Dec 13	vsUCLA	W 82-72	-10.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 154
Dec 17	vsCAM	W 98-70	-36.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 168
Dec 21	vsORE	W 91-82	-12.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 173
Dec 28	@PEPP	W 96-56	-29.5	W +10.5	152.5	U 152
Dec 30	@USD	W 99-93	-29.5	L −23.5	160.5	O 192
Jan 2	vsSEA	W 80-72	-24.5	L −16.5	155.5	U 152
Jan 4	vsLMU	W 82-47	-25.5	W +9.5	154.5	U 129
Jan 8	vsSCU	W 89-77	-17.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 15	@WSU	W 86-65	-16.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 151
Jan 17	@SEA	W 71-50	-9.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 121
Jan 21	vsPEPP	W 84-60	-28.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 144
Jan 24	vsSF	W 68-66	-15.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 134
Jan 31	vsSMC	W 73-65	-8.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 4	@PORT	L 80-87	-22.5	L −29.5	152.5	O 167
Feb 7	@ORST	W 81-61	-19.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 10	vsWSU	W 83-53	-21.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 136
Feb 14	@SCU	W 94-86	-4.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 18	@SF	W 80-59	-15.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 21	vsPAC	W 71-62	-22.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 133
Feb 25	vsPORT	W 89-48	-26.5	W +14.5	150.5	U 137
Feb 28	@SMC	L 59-70	-2.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 9	vsORST	W 65-56	-20.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 121
Mar 10	vsSCU	W 79-68	-8.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 19	vsKENN	W 73-64	-20.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 137
Mar 21	vsTEX	L 68-74	-5.5	L −11.5	146.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

+25.5

W 83-68

+4.5

CREI

W 90-63

+14.5

ASU

W 77-65

−1.5

SUU

W 122-50

+36.5

ALA

W 95-85

+5.5

W 100-61

+24.5

MICH

L 61-101

−43.5

W 94-59

+29.5

UNF

W 109-58

+8.5

UCLA

W 82-72

−0.5

CAM

W 98-70

−8.5

ORE

W 91-82

−3.5

PEPP

W 96-56

+10.5

USD

W 99-93

−23.5

SEA

W 80-72

−16.5

LMU

W 82-47

+9.5

SCU

W 89-77

−5.5

WSU

W 86-65

+4.5

SEA

W 71-50

+11.5

PEPP

W 84-60

−4.5

W 68-66

−13.5

SMC

W 73-65

−0.5

PORT

L 80-87

−29.5

ORST

W 81-61

+0.5

WSU

W 83-53

+8.5

SCU

W 94-86

+3.5

W 80-59

+5.5

PAC

W 71-62

−13.5

PORT

W 89-48

+14.5

SMC

L 59-70

−13.5

ORST

W 65-56

−11.5

SCU

W 79-68

+2.5

KENN

W 73-64

−11.5

TEX

L 68-74

−11.5

covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

−16.5

W 83-68

−15.5

CREI

W 90-63

−11.5

ASU

W 77-65

−16.5

SUU

W 122-50

+11.5

ALA

W 95-85

+1.5

W 100-61

+3.5

MICH

L 61-101

−3.5

W 94-59

−6.5

UNF

W 109-58

+0.5

UCLA

W 82-72

+6.5

CAM

W 98-70

+7.5

ORE

W 91-82

+17.5

PEPP

W 96-56

−0.5

USD

W 99-93

+31.5

SEA

W 80-72

−3.5

LMU

W 82-47

−25.5

SCU

W 89-77

+2.5

WSU

W 86-65

−4.5

SEA

W 71-50

−29.5

PEPP

W 84-60

−6.5

W 68-66

−15.5

SMC

W 73-65

−6.5

PORT

L 80-87

+14.5

ORST

W 81-61

−7.5

WSU

W 83-53

−20.5

SCU

W 94-86

+21.5

W 80-59

−12.5

PAC

W 71-62

−11.5

PORT

W 89-48

−13.5

SMC

L 59-70

−14.5

ORST

W 65-56

−24.5

SCU

W 79-68

−10.5

KENN

W 73-64

−15.5

TEX

L 68-74

−4.5

over 11under 24avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Gonzaga has the better starters

Position by position: New Mexico St 0, Gonzaga 5, even 0

New Mexico StBetterGonzaga

G J. Washington TR11.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 34

GONZBig

G J. Bennett TR15.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 85

G G. Warren TR12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 68

GONZSmall

G X. Lee TR11.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.2 ast Score 94

G D. Dudley TR14.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

GONZSmall

F C. Wiggins TR13.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 81

F M. Lavrenov TR10.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 40

GONZBig

F B. Huff17.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99

F J. Osborne6.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42

GONZBig

C M. Diop TR13.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 86

New Mexico StBetterGonzaga

NMSU offense151st of 366 · -4.6

GONZBig

GONZ defense21st of 366 · +5.3

NMSU defense125th of 366 · -2.3

GONZSmall

GONZ offense14th of 366 · +9.4

Backcourt-1.3 · 3 players

GONZBig

Backcourt+5.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players

GONZBig

Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players

Bench-2.2 · 3 players

GONZBig

Bench+2.8 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestNMSU betterGONZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

New Mexico St

Guards

J. Washington35 min · TRG. Warren32 min · TRD. Dudley31 min · TRG. Pickens21 minK. RobinsonNewD. GrantNew

Forwards

M. Lavrenov28 min · TRJ. Osborne24 minS. Payne20 min · TRL. Levillain20 min · TRP. WoodsonNew

Centers

A. DiongueNew

Gonzaga

Guards

J. Bennett35 min · TRX. Lee27 min · TRD. Fogle17 minI. Harwell14 min · TRN. De SousaNewA. MetzNew

Forwards

C. Wiggins28 min · TRB. Huff26 minI. AlmansaNewP. JeffersonNewS. FunchesNewL. FosterNew

Centers

M. Diop30 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NMSU73.8 #207

GONZ84.3 #17

Points per possession

NMSU1.08 #179

GONZ1.20 #13

Pace (possessions)

NMSU68.1 #224

GONZ70.4 #98

Shooting

Effective FG%

NMSU48.5 #302

GONZ55.6 #25

3-point %

NMSU32.4 #257

GONZ33.3 #212

3-point attempt rate

NMSU38.7 #198

GONZ30.8 #342

Free throw rate

NMSU34.9 #186

GONZ31.0 #282

Possessions

Turnover rate

NMSU15.0 #66

GONZ13.7 #17

Offensive rebound rate

NMSU32.5 #105

GONZ34.8 #52

Assists per game

NMSU12.5 #250

GONZ18.4 #7

Defense

Points allowed

NMSU73.8 #150

GONZ66.2 #15

Points allowed per possession

NMSU1.08 #179

GONZ0.94 #1

Opponent effective FG%

NMSU48.7 #52

GONZ46.3 #15

Opponent 3-point %

NMSU32.4 #83

GONZ30.6 #23

Turnovers forced

NMSU14.7 #311

GONZ19.9 #25

Defensive rebound rate

NMSU69.7 #175

GONZ74.3 #16

Steals per game

NMSU5.7 #276

GONZ8.4 #23

Blocks per game

NMSU3.0 #221

GONZ3.7 #116

NMSU		GONZ
Scoring
73.8 #207	Points per game	84.3 #17
1.08 #179	Points per possession	1.20 #13
68.1 #224	Pace (possessions)	70.4 #98
Shooting
48.5 #302	Effective FG%	55.6 #25
32.4 #257	3-point %	33.3 #212
38.7 #198	3-point attempt rate	30.8 #342
34.9 #186	Free throw rate	31.0 #282
Possessions
15.0 #66	Turnover rate	13.7 #17
32.5 #105	Offensive rebound rate	34.8 #52
12.5 #250	Assists per game	18.4 #7
Defense
73.8 #150	Points allowed	66.2 #15
1.08 #179	Points allowed per possession	0.94 #1
48.7 #52	Opponent effective FG%	46.3 #15
32.4 #83	Opponent 3-point %	30.6 #23
14.7 #311	Turnovers forced	19.9 #25
69.7 #175	Defensive rebound rate	74.3 #16
5.7 #276	Steals per game	8.4 #23
3.0 #221	Blocks per game	3.7 #116

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

New Mexico St

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Sam Houston61–69
Wvs Jax State68–63
Wvs Kennesaw St79–76
Wvs Jax State77–75
L@ MTSU85–86

A week or more of rest.

Gonzaga

31-4 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas68–74
Wvs Kennesaw St73–64
Wvs Santa Clara79–68
Wvs Oregon St65–56
L@ Saint Mary's59–70

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico State Aggies at Gonzaga Bulldogs

What could decide it: GONZ has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

New Mexico St

Gonzaga

Gonzaga has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

New Mexico St

Gonzaga