1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. VMI @ UTSA
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

VMI Keydets at UTSA Roadrunners

UTSA Convocation Center · at UTSA
#320VMIVMI
@
#192UTSAUTSA
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
VMIThis seasonUTSA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTSA 81–71 · win probability UTSA 80%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UTSA has more of the edges

VMI 2, UTSA 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UTSABig
UTSA offense vs VMI defense
Offense 155th of 366 against a defense 342nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
VMI has played the 253rd-hardest schedule, UTSA the 104th. A record against a soft schedule means less
VMISmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: VMI 15.3%, UTSA 17.4%. Forced: VMI 15.7%, UTSA 14.7%
VMISmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: VMI 59%, UTSA 15%. Transfers in: VMI 1, UTSA 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UTSASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: VMI 25.6%, UTSA 30.2%. Defensive: VMI 62.8%, UTSA 61.3%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: VMI plays 67.6 a game (251st fastest), UTSA 69.6 (142nd). Faster games mean more points
UTSASmall
Home court
UTSA at home. This season: UTSA 0-0 at home, VMI 0-0 away
UTSASmall
VMI offense vs UTSA defense
Offense 288th of 366 against a defense 238th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: VMI 47.5 and allows 57.0; UTSA 44.8 and allows 53.3
Even
Three-pointers
VMI hits 31.5% and allows 36.5%; UTSA hits 29.2% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 53.6% and 41.3% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: VMI 30.6, UTSA 29.5. Allowed: VMI 34.6, UTSA 33.3
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UTSA -9.6—
Total—152.0—
Projected score—VMI 71.2 · UTSA 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUTSA -5.6—
1H total71.1—
1H projected scoreVMI 32.7 · UTSA 38.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UTSA has the better starters

Position by position: VMI 1, UTSA 2, even 2
VMIBetterUTSA
G A. Clark6.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35
VMISmall
G D. Hayes8.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 16
G W. Andrews3.9 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20
UTSASmall
G J. Kelly TR8.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 44
F T. Johnson18.1 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 75
Even
G D. Williams TR10 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 72
F C. Liston4.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2
UTSASmall
G P. Turner TR7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 31
F A. Daushvili6.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
G I. Coleman TR6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50
VMIBetterUTSA
VMI offense288th of 366 · -8.9
Even
UTSA defense238th of 366 · -6.2
VMI defense342nd of 366 · -9.1
UTSABig
UTSA offense155th of 366 · -4.7
Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players
VMISmall
Backcourt-5.4 · 5 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.8 · 3 players
VMISmall
Bench-3.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestVMI betterUTSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
VMI
Guards
A. Clark27 minW. Andrews12 minT. Johnson9 min · TRB. Edmonds2 minM. Lawson2 minR. BradleyNew
Forwards
T. Johnson37 minC. Liston22 minA. Daushvili17 minR. PetersNewP. NarvilasNewJ. PanzoNew
UTSA
Guards
D. Hayes31 minJ. Kelly27 min · TRD. Williams22 min · TRP. Turner20 min · TRI. Coleman19 min · TRS. Eberwein19 min · TR
Forwards
A. Smith5 min · TRC. OkpukparaNewM. BroxtonNewJ. PetersonNewK. TaylorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
VMIUTSA
Scoring
68.5 #306Points per game67.3 #329
1.01 #311Points per possession0.96 #348
67.6 #251Pace (possessions)69.6 #142
Shooting
47.5 #325Effective FG%44.8 #360
31.5 #3063-point %29.2 #351
53.6 #23-point attempt rate41.3 #143
30.6 #293Free throw rate29.5 #320
Possessions
15.3 #88Turnover rate17.4 #231
25.6 #330Offensive rebound rate30.2 #191
11.6 #309Assists per game10.1 #357
Defense
83.2 #348Points allowed82.9 #345
1.23 #362Points allowed per possession1.20 #356
57.0 #357Opponent effective FG%53.3 #277
36.5 #327Opponent 3-point %35.1 #251
15.7 #239Turnovers forced14.7 #309
62.8 #360Defensive rebound rate61.3 #363
6.6 #160Steals per game6.3 #203
2.0 #343Blocks per game4.3 #52
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

VMI

3-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Greensboro70–84
  • L@ Chattanooga79–86
  • L@ Samford61–80
  • Lvs W Carolina62–81
  • L@ Wofford76–82

A week or more of rest.

UTSA

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 1-17 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Rice71–80
  • Lvs Wichita St67–84
  • Lvs East Carolina81–82
  • L@ Tulsa74–100
  • Lvs FAU52–60

A week or more of rest.