1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. UTSA @ SEA
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

UTSA Roadrunners at Seattle U Redhawks

Redhawk Center · at Seattle U
#192UTSAUTSA
@
#119SEASeattle U
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTSAThis seasonSEA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SEA 78–66 · win probability SEA 84%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SEA has more of the edges

UTSA 0, SEA 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SEABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTSA 17.4%, SEA 16.7%. Forced: UTSA 14.7%, SEA 21.2%
SEABig
Three-pointers
UTSA hits 29.2% and allows 35.1%; SEA hits 33.7% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 41.3% and 39.4% of their shots
SEABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTSA 44.8 and allows 53.3; SEA 49.8 and allows 48.4
SEASmall
UTSA offense vs SEA defense
Offense 155th of 366 against a defense 76th, on the model’s ratings
SEASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTSA 15%, SEA 50%. Transfers in: UTSA 9, SEA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
SEASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTSA 29.5, SEA 34.2. Allowed: UTSA 33.3, SEA 33.0
SEASmall
SEA offense vs UTSA defense
Offense 183rd of 366 against a defense 238th, on the model’s ratings
SEASmall
Home court
SEA at home. This season: SEA 0-0 at home, UTSA 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTSA 30.2%, SEA 23.7%. Defensive: UTSA 61.3%, SEA 68.2%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UTSA plays 69.6 a game (142nd fastest), SEA 69.1 (175th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
UTSA has played the 104th-hardest schedule, SEA the 114th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SEA -11.3—
Total—144.1—
Projected score—UTSA 66.4 · SEA 77.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSEA -6.6—
1H total67.4—
1H projected scoreUTSA 30.4 · SEA 37—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Seattle U has the better starters

Position by position: UTSA 1, Seattle U 2, even 2
UTSABetterSeattle U
G D. Hayes8.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 16
SEABig
G T. Boston TR14.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 76
G J. Kelly TR8.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 44
Even
G M. Arington4.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 4 ast Score 41
G D. Williams TR10 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 72
UTSASmall
F J. Yeo12.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 45
G P. Turner TR7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 31
SEABig
F W. Heimbrodt12.7 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.3 ast Score 72
G I. Coleman TR6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50
Even
F T. Thrastarson TR9.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 54
UTSABetterSeattle U
UTSA offense155th of 366 · -4.7
SEASmall
SEA defense76th of 366 · +0.6
UTSA defense238th of 366 · -6.2
SEASmall
SEA offense183rd of 366 · -5.7
Backcourt-5.4 · 5 players
SEABig
Backcourt-0.2 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+0.6 · 3 players
Bench-3.5 · 5 players
SEABig
Bench+0.1 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUTSA betterSEA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UTSA
Guards
D. Hayes31 minJ. Kelly27 min · TRD. Williams22 min · TRP. Turner20 min · TRI. Coleman19 min · TRS. Eberwein19 min · TR
Forwards
A. Smith5 min · TRC. OkpukparaNewM. BroxtonNewJ. PetersonNewK. TaylorNew
Seattle U
Guards
T. Boston33 min · TRM. Arington31 minK. HansenNewM. WilliamsNewJ. WhiteNewJ. HarshmanNew
Forwards
J. Yeo32 minW. Heimbrodt32 minT. Thrastarson23 min · TRY. Kawashima3 minR. Adams2 min
Centers
H. Dzellat8 min · TRL. CoulibalyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTSASEA
Scoring
67.3 #329Points per game70.1 #283
0.96 #348Points per possession1.01 #312
69.6 #142Pace (possessions)69.1 #175
Shooting
44.8 #360Effective FG%49.8 #249
29.2 #3513-point %33.7 #186
41.3 #1433-point attempt rate39.4 #185
29.5 #320Free throw rate34.2 #201
Possessions
17.4 #231Turnover rate16.7 #178
30.2 #191Offensive rebound rate23.7 #347
10.1 #357Assists per game13.2 #201
Defense
82.9 #345Points allowed68.2 #34
1.20 #356Points allowed per possession0.99 #20
53.3 #277Opponent effective FG%48.4 #46
35.1 #251Opponent 3-point %32.1 #69
14.7 #309Turnovers forced21.2 #9
61.3 #363Defensive rebound rate68.2 #249
6.3 #203Steals per game7.8 #52
4.3 #52Blocks per game4.9 #20
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UTSA

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 1-17 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Rice71–80
  • Lvs Wichita St67–84
  • Lvs East Carolina81–82
  • L@ Tulsa74–100
  • Lvs FAU52–60

A week or more of rest.

Seattle U

19-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Auburn85–91
  • Wvs St Thomas67–52
  • Lvs Pacific58–61
  • Wvs San Diego58–56
  • W@ LMU71–66

A week or more of rest.