Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Abilene Christian Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM ETMoody Coliseum (Abilene) · at Abilene Chrstn

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SF Austin and Abilene Chrstn
SFA	This season	ACU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SFA 71–69 · win probability SFA 58%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SFA has more of the edges

SFA 4, ACU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SFABig

Three-pointers

SFA hits 35.8% and allows 30.3%; ACU hits 31.0% and allows 40.9%. Threes are 39.8% and 32.8% of their shots

SFABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SFA 51.7 and allows 47.7; ACU 47.5 and allows 56.5

Context

Schedule so far

SFA has played the 338th-hardest schedule, ACU the 183rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

SFABig

ACU offense vs SFA defense

Offense 298th of 366 against a defense 156th, on the model’s ratings

SFASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SFA 14.2%, ACU 20.8%. Forced: SFA 17.7%, ACU 23.4%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: SFA plays 66.4 a game (298th fastest), ACU 69.2 (167th). Faster games mean more points

ACUSmall

SFA offense vs ACU defense

Offense 252nd of 366 against a defense 200th, on the model’s ratings

ACUSmall

Home court

ACU at home. This season: ACU 0-0 at home, SFA 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SFA 33.8%, ACU 31.0%. Defensive: SFA 70.5%, ACU 70.9%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SFA 30.1, ACU 41.7. Allowed: SFA 31.1, ACU 53.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SFA 26%, ACU 25%. Transfers in: SFA 6, ACU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SFA -2.3	—
Total	—	140.4	—
Projected score	—	SFA 71.3 · ACU 69

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SFA -1.5	—
1H total	65.7	—
1H projected score	SFA 33.6 · ACU 32.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SFA WWLLW	23-9	72%	13-3	—
ACU WLLWL	14-16	47%	4-7	—

Venue/role: SFA away; ACU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SFA UOUOO	14-18	44%	26-6
ACU OUUOO	16-14	53%	11-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SFA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
ACU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SF Austin

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs RICE	W81–69WO
Nov 20	vs INST	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ SMU	No recent meeting

Abilene Chrstn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ MOST	L69–87LO
Nov 25	@ SDST	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs PEPP	W71–63WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SFA 8–2 ACUSFA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · SFA has won the last 3 meetings · SFA 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 14, 2025-26	ACU 66 @ SFA 76	SFA -6.5	SFA W
Dec 31, 2024-25	SFA 62 @ ACU 57	ACU -4.5	SFA W
Mar 13, 2023-24	ACU 57 vs SFA 60	SFA -2.5	SFA W
Feb 17, 2023-24	ACU 63 @ SFA 62	SFA -9.5	ACU W
Dec 2, 2023-24	SFA 79 @ ACU 74	ACU +2.5	SFA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SF Austin

32 games played

Straight up

26-6

81% wins

Against the spread

23-9

72% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-681%

W W W L W L W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

23-972%

W W W L W L W W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W W L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

U O U O U U U O U U U U U O U O U O U O U O O U O O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsARST	W 90-65	+1.5	W +26.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 11	@RICE	W 81-69	+2.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsACU	W 76-66	-6.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 18	@FRES	L 78-80	-2.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 21	@PEPP	W 63-60	-1.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 123
Nov 29	@UTA	L 61-66	+1.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 127
Dec 3	vsRGV	W 73-60	-6.5	W +6.5	143.5	U 133
Dec 7	vsULM	W 96-76	-19.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 17	vsAMCC	W 69-60	-6.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 129
Dec 29	@ETAM	W 75-48	-4.5	W +22.5	146.5	U 123
Dec 31	@NWST	W 74-64	-8.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 138
Jan 3	@SELA	W 73-63	-3.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 136
Jan 5	@MCN	L 64-66	+10.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsHCU	W 85-67	-12.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 12	vsUIW	W 56-46	-7.5	W +2.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 17	@NOLA	W 84-79	-6.5	L −1.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 19	@NICH	W 79-62	-4.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 141
Jan 24	@LAM	W 88-81	-4.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 169
Jan 27	vsNWST	W 69-67	-14.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsSELA	W 85-58	-9.5	W +17.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 2	vsMCN	W 67-60	+2.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsLAM	W 84-74	-8.5	W +1.5	138.5	O 158
Feb 9	vsETAM	W 74-70	-16.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 144
Feb 14	@RGV	W 66-57	-1.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 123
Feb 16	@AMCC	W 78-68	-5.5	W +4.5	135.5	O 146
Feb 21	vsNICH	W 81-78	-12.5	L −9.5	147.5	O 159
Feb 23	vsNOLA	L 73-77	-11.5	L −15.5	153.5	U 150
Feb 28	@HCU	W 77-56	-8.5	W +12.5	138.5	U 133
Mar 2	@UIW	W 76-68	-7.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 144
Mar 10	vsAMCC	W 60-58	-6.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 118
Mar 11	vsMCN	L 59-76	+3.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 135
Mar 17	@TLSA	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

W 90-65

+26.5

RICE

W 81-69

+14.5

ACU

W 76-66

+3.5

FRES

L 78-80

−4.5

PEPP

W 63-60

+1.5

UTA

L 61-66

−3.5

RGV

W 73-60

+6.5

ULM

W 96-76

+0.5

AMCC

W 69-60

+2.5

ETAM

W 75-48

+22.5

NWST

W 74-64

+1.5

SELA

W 73-63

+6.5

MCN

L 64-66

+8.5

HCU

W 85-67

+5.5

UIW

W 56-46

+2.5

NOLA

W 84-79

−1.5

NICH

W 79-62

+12.5

LAM

W 88-81

+2.5

NWST

W 69-67

−12.5

SELA

W 85-58

+17.5

MCN

W 67-60

+9.5

LAM

W 84-74

+1.5

ETAM

W 74-70

−12.5

RGV

W 66-57

+7.5

AMCC

W 78-68

+4.5

NICH

W 81-78

−9.5

NOLA

L 73-77

−15.5

HCU

W 77-56

+12.5

UIW

W 76-68

+0.5

AMCC

W 60-58

−4.5

MCN

L 59-76

−13.5

TLSA

L 84-89

+0.5

covered 23didn’t cover 9avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

W 90-65

−0.5

RICE

W 81-69

+0.5

ACU

W 76-66

−0.5

FRES

L 78-80

+11.5

PEPP

W 63-60

−25.5

UTA

L 61-66

−11.5

RGV

W 73-60

−10.5

ULM

W 96-76

+29.5

AMCC

W 69-60

−10.5

ETAM

W 75-48

−23.5

NWST

W 74-64

−0.5

SELA

W 73-63

−1.5

MCN

L 64-66

−14.5

HCU

W 85-67

+14.5

UIW

W 56-46

−38.5

NOLA

W 84-79

+15.5

NICH

W 79-62

−3.5

LAM

W 88-81

+32.5

NWST

W 69-67

−5.5

SELA

W 85-58

+7.5

MCN

W 67-60

−14.5

LAM

W 84-74

+19.5

ETAM

W 74-70

+0.5

RGV

W 66-57

−21.5

AMCC

W 78-68

+10.5

NICH

W 81-78

+11.5

NOLA

L 73-77

−3.5

HCU

W 77-56

−5.5

UIW

W 76-68

+1.5

AMCC

W 60-58

−17.5

MCN

L 59-76

+0.5

TLSA

L 84-89

+23.5

over 14under 18avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Abilene Chrstn

30 games played

Straight up

11-19

37% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1937%

W L L W L W W L L W L W W L L L L L L L W W L W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L L L W L W W W W W L W W L L L L L W W W W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U U U O U O O O O O O O O U U O O U U U U U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsOMA	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 144
Nov 14	@SFA	L 66-76	+6.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 18	@TXST	L 49-63	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	U 112
Nov 24	vsUTSA	W 61-50	-2.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 111
Nov 25	vsW&M	L 58-92	-1.5	L −35.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 2	@PEPP	W 71-63	-1.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 134
Dec 6	vsNMSU	W 77-69	+1.5	W +9.5	131.5	O 146
Dec 16	@ARIZ	L 62-96	+34.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 19	@BYU	L 67-85	+33.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 22	@TXSO	W 75-68	-4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 1	vsUTU	L 64-79	-5.5	L −20.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 3	vsUVU	W 85-68	+7.5	W +24.5	139.5	O 153
Jan 8	@TAR	W 84-80	+4.5	W +8.5	140.5	O 164
Jan 10	@UTA	L 72-82	+3.5	L −6.5	134.5	O 154
Jan 15	vsCBU	L 58-74	-1.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 17	@SUU	L 52-74	-3.5	L −25.5	149.5	U 126
Jan 29	vsUTU	L 70-76	-3.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 31	vsSUU	L 76-79	-6.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 5	@UVU	L 55-68	+14.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 123
Feb 7	@CBU	L 63-65	+8.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 128
Feb 12	vsUTA	W 67-63	-1.5	W +2.5	134.5	U 130
Feb 14	vsTAR	W 73-59	-3.5	W +10.5	134.5	U 132
Feb 16	@TAR	L 62-65	-1.5	L −4.5	134.5	U 127
Feb 21	vsSUU	W 87-83	-8.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 170
Feb 26	@UTU	L 81-85	+2.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 166
Feb 28	@UVU	L 67-74	+14.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 141
Mar 5	@CBU	L 48-87	+9.5	L −29.5	136.5	U 135
Mar 7	vsUTA	L 57-64	-1.5	L −8.5	131.5	U 121
Mar 11	vsTAR	W 84-78	-1.5	W +4.5	134.5	O 162
Mar 12	vsUTU	L 74-80	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OMA

W 73-71

−2.5

SFA

L 66-76

−3.5

TXST

L 49-63

−12.5

UTSA

W 61-50

+8.5

W&M

L 58-92

−35.5

PEPP

W 71-63

+6.5

NMSU

W 77-69

+9.5

ARIZ

L 62-96

+0.5

BYU

L 67-85

+15.5

TXSO

W 75-68

+2.5

UTU

L 64-79

−20.5

UVU

W 85-68

+24.5

TAR

W 84-80

+8.5

UTA

L 72-82

−6.5

CBU

L 58-74

−17.5

SUU

L 52-74

−25.5

UTU

L 70-76

−9.5

SUU

L 76-79

−9.5

UVU

L 55-68

+1.5

CBU

L 63-65

+6.5

UTA

W 67-63

+2.5

TAR

W 73-59

+10.5

TAR

L 62-65

−4.5

SUU

W 87-83

−4.5

UTU

L 81-85

−1.5

UVU

L 67-74

+7.5

CBU

L 48-87

−29.5

UTA

L 57-64

−8.5

TAR

W 84-78

+4.5

UTU

L 74-80

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OMA

W 73-71

−6.5

SFA

L 66-76

−0.5

TXST

L 49-63

−26.5

UTSA

W 61-50

−33.5

W&M

L 58-92

+2.5

PEPP

W 71-63

−3.5

NMSU

W 77-69

+14.5

ARIZ

L 62-96

+12.5

BYU

L 67-85

+5.5

TXSO

W 75-68

+4.5

UTU

L 64-79

+3.5

UVU

W 85-68

+13.5

TAR

W 84-80

+23.5

UTA

L 72-82

+19.5

CBU

L 58-74

−8.5

SUU

L 52-74

−23.5

UTU

L 70-76

+0.5

SUU

L 76-79

+4.5

UVU

L 55-68

−22.5

CBU

L 63-65

−7.5

UTA

W 67-63

−4.5

TAR

W 73-59

−2.5

TAR

L 62-65

−7.5

SUU

W 87-83

+26.5

UTU

L 81-85

+26.5

UVU

L 67-74

+0.5

CBU

L 48-87

−1.5

UTA

L 57-64

−10.5

TAR

W 84-78

+27.5

UTU

L 74-80

+11.5

over 16under 14avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SF Austin has the better starters

Position by position: SF Austin 1, Abilene Chrstn 0, even 4

SF AustinBetterAbilene Chrstn

G M. Russell TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 2 ast Score 36

Even

G N. Bolanga TR11.6 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 38

G N. Chotikavanic9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 60

SFASmall

G Y. Rivera7.4 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 41

F E. Daniel TR3.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41

No call

G I. Dye1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

F G. Alisas4.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 52

No call

G E. Boisdur TR1.3 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

F A. Reed TR2.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 42

Even

F C. Hornecker5.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 48

SF AustinBetterAbilene Chrstn

SFA offense252nd of 366 · -7.6

Even

ACU defense200th of 366 · -5.0

SFA defense156th of 366 · -3.4

SFABig

ACU offense298th of 366 · -9.2

Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players

SFASmall

Backcourt-3.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player

Bench-1.9 · 5 players

ACUSmall

Bench-0.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestSFA betterACU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SF Austin

Guards

M. Russell36 min · TRN. Chotikavanic23 minC. Green7 minM. Scurry7 minA. Simmons4 min · TRB. Melvin3 min

Forwards

E. Daniel14 min · TRG. Alisas14 minA. Reed11 min · TRK. Pearson8 min · TR

Abilene Chrstn

Guards

N. Bolanga34 min · TRY. Rivera25 minI. Dye6 minE. Boisdur6 min · TRT. Pons5 min · TRI. Neyhart3 min

Forwards

C. Hornecker16 minV. Yimga MoukouriNewS. RowleyNewW. Marie-AnaisNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SFA74.9 #166

ACU67.9 #313

Points per possession

SFA1.13 #88

ACU0.98 #340

Pace (possessions)

SFA66.4 #298

ACU69.2 #167

Shooting

Effective FG%

SFA51.7 #160

ACU47.5 #326

3-point %

SFA35.8 #71

ACU31.0 #319

3-point attempt rate

SFA39.8 #176

ACU32.8 #318

Free throw rate

SFA30.1 #306

ACU41.7 #34

Possessions

Turnover rate

SFA14.2 #29

ACU20.8 #356

Offensive rebound rate

SFA33.8 #74

ACU31.0 #164

Assists per game

SFA13.1 #209

ACU12.5 #249

Defense

Points allowed

SFA66.7 #20

ACU73.9 #151

Points allowed per possession

SFA1.00 #29

ACU1.07 #123

Opponent effective FG%

SFA47.7 #35

ACU56.5 #352

Opponent 3-point %

SFA30.3 #11

ACU40.9 #365

Turnovers forced

SFA17.7 #116

ACU23.4 #3

Defensive rebound rate

SFA70.5 #131

ACU70.9 #113

Steals per game

SFA6.9 #136

ACU9.6 #4

Blocks per game

SFA3.7 #118

ACU2.6 #298

SFA		ACU
Scoring
74.9 #166	Points per game	67.9 #313
1.13 #88	Points per possession	0.98 #340
66.4 #298	Pace (possessions)	69.2 #167
Shooting
51.7 #160	Effective FG%	47.5 #326
35.8 #71	3-point %	31.0 #319
39.8 #176	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #318
30.1 #306	Free throw rate	41.7 #34
Possessions
14.2 #29	Turnover rate	20.8 #356
33.8 #74	Offensive rebound rate	31.0 #164
13.1 #209	Assists per game	12.5 #249
Defense
66.7 #20	Points allowed	73.9 #151
1.00 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #123
47.7 #35	Opponent effective FG%	56.5 #352
30.3 #11	Opponent 3-point %	40.9 #365
17.7 #116	Turnovers forced	23.4 #3
70.5 #131	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #113
6.9 #136	Steals per game	9.6 #4
3.7 #118	Blocks per game	2.6 #298

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SF Austin

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Tulsa84–89
Lvs McNeese59–76
Wvs Texas A&M-CC60–58
W@ Incarnate Word76–68
W@ Hou Christian77–56

A week or more of rest.

Abilene Chrstn

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Utah Tech74–80
Wvs Tarleton St84–78
Lvs UT Arlington57–64
L@ CA Baptist48–87
L@ Utah Valley67–74

A week or more of rest.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Abilene Christian Wildcats

What could decide it: SFA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SF Austin

Abilene Chrstn

SF Austin has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SF Austin

Abilene Chrstn