1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. NWST @ MUR
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Northwestern State Demons at Murray State Racers

CFSB Center · at Murray St
#318NWSTN'Western St
@
#132MURMurray St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NWSTThis seasonMUR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MUR 82–67 · win probability MUR 90%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 149.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MUR has more of the edges

NWST 0, MUR 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: NWST plays 65.4 a game (334th fastest), MUR 72.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points
MURBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NWST 26.1%, MUR 32.6%. Defensive: NWST 67.4%, MUR 68.7%
MURBig
NWST offense vs MUR defense
Offense 340th of 366 against a defense 197th, on the model’s ratings
MURBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NWST 48.6 and allows 53.0; MUR 53.8 and allows 52.4
Context
Schedule so far
NWST has played the 292nd-hardest schedule, MUR the 165th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MURBig
MUR offense vs NWST defense
Offense 110th of 366 against a defense 236th, on the model’s ratings
MURSmall
Home court
MUR at home. This season: MUR 0-0 at home, NWST 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NWST 40.1, MUR 38.6. Allowed: NWST 36.3, MUR 32.2
Even
Three-pointers
NWST hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%; MUR hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%. Threes are 33.9% and 44.8% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NWST 18.3%, MUR 16.4%. Forced: NWST 16.9%, MUR 15.7%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NWST 28%, MUR 28%. Transfers in: NWST 2, MUR 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MUR -14.7—
Total—149.0—
Projected score—NWST 67.2 · MUR 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMUR -8.6—
1H total69.7—
1H projected scoreNWST 30.5 · MUR 39.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Murray St has the better starters

Position by position: N'Western St 0, Murray St 3, even 2
N'Western StBetterMurray St
G I. Miles10.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 57
Even
G C. Jones TR10 pts · 3 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
G C. Larry2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 1
MURBig
G R. Domon14.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
F D. Thomas TR5.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20
Even
G M. Courbon4.6 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 31
F A. Osojnik TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
MURSmall
F S. Tupuola TR6.3 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 55
F K. Turner3.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 34
MURSmall
F B. Rogers TR6.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 67
N'Western StBetterMurray St
NWST offense340th of 366 · -11.5
MURBig
MUR defense197th of 366 · -4.8
NWST defense236th of 366 · -6.2
MURSmall
MUR offense110th of 366 · -1.8
Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players
MURBig
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.2 · 3 players
MURBig
Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestNWST betterMUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N'Western St
Guards
I. Miles25 minC. Larry18 minK. SimpsonNewD. BrownNewA. AlmuttarNewB. RemoNew
Forwards
D. Thomas18 min · TRA. Osojnik16 min · TRK. Turner13 minN. OjukwuNewC. KellyNewJ. NesbittNew
Murray St
Guards
C. Jones26 min · TRR. Domon25 minM. Courbon16 minB. Shorter15 minK. Magwood11 min · TRB. ShtolzbergNew
Forwards
S. Tupuola25 min · TRB. Rogers18 min · TRP. NikolicNewJ. BoulefaaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NWSTMUR
Scoring
66.1 #346Points per game83.1 #26
1.01 #315Points per possession1.15 #56
65.4 #334Pace (possessions)72.3 #30
Shooting
48.6 #301Effective FG%53.8 #70
33.2 #2183-point %35.0 #120
33.9 #2983-point attempt rate44.8 #72
40.1 #58Free throw rate38.6 #86
Possessions
18.3 #286Turnover rate16.4 #160
26.1 #321Offensive rebound rate32.6 #100
11.3 #322Assists per game13.7 #165
Defense
72.9 #129Points allowed80.2 #323
1.12 #262Points allowed per possession1.11 #233
53.0 #270Opponent effective FG%52.4 #236
35.5 #278Opponent 3-point %36.2 #310
16.9 #160Turnovers forced15.7 #234
67.4 #286Defensive rebound rate68.7 #214
6.2 #215Steals per game5.9 #248
2.3 #321Blocks per game4.1 #69
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N'Western St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nicholls47–61
  • L@ UT Rio Grande62–74
  • L@ Texas A&M-CC59–71
  • Wvs Incarnate Word54–49
  • Wvs Hou Christian71–53

A week or more of rest.

Murray St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Nevada75–89
  • Lvs UIC79–92
  • L@ Bradley78–87
  • Wvs Evansville88–75
  • L@ Illinois St61–78

A week or more of rest.