1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. MORE @ WKU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Morehead State Eagles at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

E.A. Diddle Arena · at Western KY
#350MOREMorehead St
@
#129WKUWestern KY
LineWKU -17.5moved 1 toward WKU
Total153.5no move
MOREThis seasonWKU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WKU 83–66 · win probability WKU 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
WKU -17.5
moved 1 toward WKU
Total
153.5
model 149.0 · Under by 4.5
Model edge
Even
matches the market
Public on the spread
97% MORE
28% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WKU has more of the edges

MORE 2, WKU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WKUBig
WKU offense vs MORE defense
Offense 115th of 366 against a defense 333rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MORE has played the 346th-hardest schedule, WKU the 160th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WKUBig
MORE offense vs WKU defense
Offense 349th of 366 against a defense 169th, on the model’s ratings
WKUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MORE 18.1%, WKU 14.5%. Forced: MORE 15.4%, WKU 17.2%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MORE plays 67.4 a game (262nd fastest), WKU 71.5 (52nd). Faster games mean more points
WKUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MORE 35.8%, WKU 31.8%. Defensive: MORE 64.2%, WKU 70.5%
WKUSmall
Home court
WKU at home. This season: WKU 0-0 at home, MORE 0-0 away
MORESmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MORE 49.1 and allows 50.2; WKU 47.5 and allows 51.2
WKUSmall
Three-pointers
MORE hits 32.0% and allows 34.5%; WKU hits 33.4% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 30.5% and 39.5% of their shots
MORESmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MORE 37.7, WKU 41.2. Allowed: MORE 35.6, WKU 46.8
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MORE 29%, WKU 44%. Transfers in: MORE 0, WKU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 15 to 19.599394%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread63293%49%53%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward WKU
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
MORE +1100 · WKU -2800
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened WKU -16.5 · now WKU -17.5 · moved 1 toward WKUmodel WKU -17.5 matches the line
Opened 153.5 · now 153.5 · moved 0.5 downmodel 149
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
MORE +17.5SpreadWKU -17.5
Bets
Money
Money leans WKU -17.5 · 69 pts more of the money than of the bets
Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5
Bets
Money
MOREWinnerWKU
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
MOREWKUOverUnderMOREWKU
BetMGMMGM-17.5-110+17.5-110153.5-105153.5-115+1050-2500
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-17.5-110+17.5-110153-110153-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-16.5+107+16.5-136153.5-113153.5-113+1100-3335
BetUSBetUS-17.5-110+17.5-110153-110153-110——
BovadaBovada-17.5-110+17.5-110153-115153-105+1000-2200
DraftKingsDK-17.5-108+17.5-112153.5-105153.5-115+1300-2800
FanDuelFD-17.5-110+17.5-110153.5-110153.5-110+1280-3500
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-17.5-106+17.5-106153-108153-108——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadWKU -17.5WKU -17.6WKU +0.1
Total153.5149.0Under 4.5
Projected score—MORE 65.7 · WKU 83.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWKU -10.3—
1H total69.7—
1H projected scoreMORE 29.7 · WKU 40—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Western KY has the better starters

Position by position: Morehead St 0, Western KY 2, even 3
Morehead StBetterWestern KY
G C. Dawson8.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 22
WKUBig
G T. Moore19.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 99
G V. Dawson3.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 7
Even
G N. Norgaard TR7.8 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11
G J. Winkleman1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G A. Boone10.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 61
G I. Day NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G L. Hackman8.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 64
F C. Parker2.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 1
WKUBig
F E. Erkins-Ford TR8.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 71
Morehead StBetterWestern KY
MORE offense349th of 366 · -12.3
WKUBig
WKU defense169th of 366 · -3.9
MORE defense333rd of 366 · -8.7
WKUBig
WKU offense115th of 366 · -2.4
Backcourt-4.4 · 4 players
WKUBig
Backcourt+3.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-2.7 · 1 player
WKUBig
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-3.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestMORE betterWKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Morehead St
Guards
C. Dawson26 minV. Dawson16 minJ. Winkleman1 minI. DayNewK. CarbonNewK. ShawNew
Forwards
C. Parker16 minD. AlexanderNewL. BassNewT. TangioraNewJ. PriesterNew
Western KY
Guards
T. Moore30 minN. Norgaard25 min · TRA. Boone25 minL. Hackman22 minS. Young19 min · TRK. Unseld11 min
Forwards
E. Erkins-Ford22 min · TRE. Walker16 min · TRM. KonareNewG. WeisNewJ. AdebayoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MOREWKU
Scoring
72.0 #243Points per game77.9 #95
1.07 #202Points per possession1.09 #163
67.4 #262Pace (possessions)71.5 #52
Shooting
49.1 #285Effective FG%47.5 #327
32.0 #2813-point %33.4 #205
30.5 #3493-point attempt rate39.5 #184
37.7 #109Free throw rate41.2 #42
Possessions
18.1 #275Turnover rate14.5 #42
35.8 #27Offensive rebound rate31.8 #134
12.0 #285Assists per game12.9 #215
Defense
75.5 #205Points allowed77.0 #241
1.12 #264Points allowed per possession1.08 #155
50.2 #109Opponent effective FG%51.2 #169
34.5 #221Opponent 3-point %34.3 #205
15.4 #259Turnovers forced17.2 #134
64.2 #351Defensive rebound rate70.5 #135
6.0 #234Steals per game7.4 #90
3.0 #213Blocks per game2.3 #327
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Morehead St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee St67–93
  • Wvs SE Missouri66–61
  • W@ Little Rock76–70
  • Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles64–63
  • W@ W Illinois81–59

A week or more of rest.

Western KY

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kennesaw St87–96
  • L@ FIU67–92
  • L@ Missouri St74–87
  • Wvs UTEP97–65
  • Wvs New Mexico St93–70

A week or more of rest.