Kohl Center · at Wisconsin
Line
WIS -23.5moved 1 toward WIS
Total159.5no move
| This season | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects WIS 91–67 · win probability WIS 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
WIS -23.5
moved 1 toward WIS
Total
159.5
model 157.9 · Under by 1.5
Model edge
WIS by 1.5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: WIS has more of the edges
DEN 0, WIS 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WIS offense vs DEN defense
Offense 44th of 366 against a defense 337th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DEN has played the 249th-hardest schedule, WIS the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DEN offense vs WIS defense
Offense 184th of 366 against a defense 40th, on the model’s ratings
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DEN 29.8%, WIS 29.1%. Defensive: DEN 67.2%, WIS 71.8%
Shooting
Effective FG%: DEN 53.6 and allows 56.0; WIS 54.5 and allows 51.4
Three-pointers
DEN hits 36.8% and allows 36.7%; WIS hits 36.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 38.6% and 52.1% of their shots
Free throws
Free throw rate: DEN 34.1, WIS 31.5. Allowed: DEN 36.8, WIS 29.9
Home court
WIS at home. This season: WIS 0-0 at home, DEN 0-0 away
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DEN 27%, WIS 54%. Transfers in: DEN 6, WIS 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DEN 14.2%, WIS 12.8%. Forced: DEN 13.0%, WIS 14.3%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: DEN plays 69.4 a game (151st fastest), WIS 70.0 (119th). Faster games mean more points
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 20 or more | 1165 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 1090 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite | 6763 | 75% | 50% | 51% |
| Games with a total of 155 to 159.5 | 1555 | 74% | 51% | 49% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenWIS -22.5
1 → WIS
NowWIS -23.5
1 pt toward WIS
Total
Open159.5
no move
Now159.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
DEN +2200 · WIS -10000
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened WIS -22.5 · now WIS -23.5 · moved 1 toward WISmodel WIS -25
model WIS -25
Opened 159.5 · unchangedmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Over 159.5TotalUnder 159.5
Bets
Money
Bets
Money
Books
8 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | WIS | Over | Under | DEN | WIS | |
| BetMGMMGM | -23.5-105 | +23.5-115 | 159.5-110 | 159.5-110 | +2200 | -10000 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -23-102 | +23-118 | 159.5-115 | 159.5-105 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -23.5-112 | +23.5-112 | 159.5-113 | 159.5-110 | — | — |
| BetUSBetUS | -23+100 | +23-120 | 159.5-115 | 159.5-105 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -22.5-105 | +22.5-115 | 159.5-110 | 159.5-110 | +1600 | -10000 |
| DraftKingsDK | -23.5-115 | +23.5-105 | 159.5-112 | 159.5-108 | +2200 | -8000 |
| FanDuelFD | -24.5-114 | +24.5-106 | 159.5-110 | 159.5-110 | +3000 | -10000 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -23+102 | +23-114 | 159.5-113 | 159.5-103 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | WIS -23.5 | WIS -25.0 | WIS +1.5 |
| Total | 159.5 | 157.9 | Under 1.6 |
| Projected score | — | DEN 66.5 · WIS 91.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | WIS -14.7 | — |
| 1H total | 73.8 | — |
| 1H projected score | DEN 29.5 · WIS 44.3 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | |
| 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Denver
29 games played
Straight up
12-17
41% wins
Against the spread
18-11
62% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
20-9
69% overs · avg +6.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ | L 73-84 | +13.5 | W +2.5 | 136.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 6 | @ | L 70-84 | +27.5 | W +13.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 9 | @ | W 75-73 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 15 | vs | L 79-84 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 148.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 21 | @ | W 83-81 | +18.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 24 | @ | L 73-103 | +32.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 26 | @ | L 59-101 | +9.5 | L −32.5 | 153.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 3 | vs | W 93-89 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 6 | @ | L 79-93 | +8.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | vs | L 86-105 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 165.5 | O 191 |
| Dec 20 | @ | W 86-79 | +8.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 22 | @ | L 85-90 | +16.5 | W +11.5 | 160.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 31 | vs | W 87-74 | -9.5 | W +3.5 | 156.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 4 | @ | L 88-92 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 163.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 8 | @ | L 79-87 | +8.5 | W +0.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 72-82 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 169.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 14 | vs | W 98-87 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 22 | vs | L 77-82 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 24 | vs | L 86-93 | -5.5 | L −12.5 | 162.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 28 | @ | W 69-61 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 31 | vs | L 82-84 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 5 | @ | W 78-71 | +12.5 | W +19.5 | 156.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 7 | @ | W 98-79 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 161.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 12 | vs | W 79-61 | +2.5 | W +20.5 | 160.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 15 | @ | L 76-83 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Feb 19 | vs | W 90-70 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 163.5 | U 160 |
| Feb 21 | vs | W 82-80 | +3.5 | W +5.5 | 168.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 26 | @ | L 80-102 | -2.5 | L −24.5 | 156.5 | O 182 |
| Mar 6 | vs | L 67-83 | -2.5 | L −18.5 | 160.5 | U 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
SEA
L 73-84
+2.5
6
@
WASH
L 70-84
+13.5
9
@
MTST
W 75-73
+9.5
15
vs
UTSA
L 79-84
−9.5
21
@
CSU
W 83-81
+20.5
24
@
ARIZ
L 73-103
+2.5
26
@
WYO
L 59-101
−32.5
3
vs
EWU
W 93-89
+2.5
6
@
IDST
L 79-93
−5.5
13
vs
CSUF
L 86-105
−22.5
20
@
UNCO
W 86-79
+15.5
22
@
TLSA
L 85-90
+11.5
31
vs
KC
W 87-74
+3.5
4
@
STMN
L 88-92
+7.5
8
@
SDST
L 79-87
+0.5
10
@
SDAK
L 72-82
−11.5
14
vs
ORU
W 98-87
+4.5
22
vs
NDSU
L 77-82
−0.5
24
vs
UND
L 86-93
−12.5
28
@
KC
W 69-61
+4.5
31
vs
OMA
L 82-84
−3.5
5
@
NDSU
W 78-71
+19.5
7
@
UND
W 98-79
+22.5
12
vs
SDST
W 79-61
+20.5
15
@
OMA
L 76-83
−4.5
19
vs
SDAK
W 90-70
+14.5
21
vs
STMN
W 82-80
+5.5
26
@
ORU
L 80-102
−24.5
6
vs
UND
L 67-83
−18.5
covered 18didn’t cover 11avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@
SEA
L 73-84
+20.5
6
@
WASH
L 70-84
+0.5
9
@
MTST
W 75-73
+1.5
15
vs
UTSA
L 79-84
+14.5
21
@
CSU
W 83-81
+14.5
24
@
ARIZ
L 73-103
+21.5
26
@
WYO
L 59-101
+6.5
3
vs
EWU
W 93-89
+26.5
6
@
IDST
L 79-93
+29.5
13
vs
CSUF
L 86-105
+25.5
20
@
UNCO
W 86-79
+5.5
22
@
TLSA
L 85-90
+14.5
31
vs
KC
W 87-74
+4.5
4
@
STMN
L 88-92
+16.5
8
@
SDST
L 79-87
+3.5
10
@
SDAK
L 72-82
−15.5
14
vs
ORU
W 98-87
+28.5
22
vs
NDSU
L 77-82
−1.5
24
vs
UND
L 86-93
+16.5
28
@
KC
W 69-61
−31.5
31
vs
OMA
L 82-84
+7.5
5
@
NDSU
W 78-71
−7.5
7
@
UND
W 98-79
+15.5
12
vs
SDST
W 79-61
−20.5
15
@
OMA
L 76-83
−1.5
19
vs
SDAK
W 90-70
−3.5
21
vs
STMN
W 82-80
−6.5
26
@
ORU
L 80-102
+25.5
6
vs
UND
L 67-83
−10.5
over 20under 9avg +6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Wisconsin
35 games played
Straight up
24-11
69% wins
Against the spread
21-14
60% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
22-13
63% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs | W 96-64 | -20.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 7 | vs | W 97-72 | -28.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 11 | vs | W 86-55 | -26.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 17 | vs | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 21 | @ | L 70-98 | +4.5 | L −23.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 27 | vs | W 104-83 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs | L 63-74 | -5.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs | W 85-73 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs | W 96-76 | -11.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | @ | L 60-90 | +1.5 | L −28.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 19 | vs | L 66-76 | -3.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 22 | vs | W 88-61 | -26.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 30 | vs | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 157.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vs | L 73-89 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 6 | vs | W 80-72 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 10 | @ | W 91-88 | +19.5 | W +22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 13 | @ | W 78-75 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 17 | vs | W 96-87 | -15.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 22 | @ | W 98-71 | -5.5 | W +21.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 25 | vs | L 71-73 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 158.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | vs | W 67-63 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 31 | vs | W 92-82 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 7 | @ | L 77-78 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 10 | @ | W 92-90 | +9.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
| Feb 13 | vs | W 92-71 | +1.5 | W +22.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 17 | @ | L 69-86 | +1.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 22 | vs | W 84-71 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 25 | @ | L 71-85 | -5.5 | L −19.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | @ | W 90-73 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 163 |
| Mar 4 | vs | W 78-45 | -14.5 | W +18.5 | 153.5 | U 123 |
| Mar 7 | @ | W 97-93 | +9.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | O 190 |
| Mar 12 | vs | W 85-82 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Mar 13 | vs | W 91-88 | +8.5 | W +11.5 | 158.5 | O 179 |
| Mar 14 | vs | L 65-68 | +12.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 19 | vs | L 82-83 | -10.5 | L −11.5 | 161.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
CAM
W 96-64
+11.5
7
vs
NIU
W 97-72
−3.5
11
vs
BALL
W 86-55
+4.5
17
vs
SIUE
W 94-69
−0.5
21
@
BYU
L 70-98
−23.5
27
vs
PROV
W 104-83
+14.5
28
vs
TCU
L 63-74
−16.5
3
vs
NU
W 85-73
+1.5
6
vs
MARQ
W 96-76
+8.5
10
@
NEB
L 60-90
−28.5
19
vs
VILL
L 66-76
−13.5
22
vs
CMU
W 88-61
+0.5
30
vs
MILW
W 80-60
+0.5
3
vs
PUR
L 73-89
−10.5
6
vs
UCLA
W 80-72
+4.5
10
@
MICH
W 91-88
+22.5
13
@
MINN
W 78-75
+1.5
17
vs
RUTG
W 96-87
−6.5
22
@
PSU
W 98-71
+21.5
25
vs
USC
L 71-73
−9.5
28
vs
MINN
W 67-63
−5.5
31
vs
OSU
W 92-82
+5.5
7
@
IU
L 77-78
+2.5
10
@
ILL
W 92-90
+11.5
13
vs
MSU
W 92-71
+22.5
17
@
OSU
L 69-86
−15.5
22
vs
IOWA
W 84-71
+10.5
25
@
ORE
L 71-85
−19.5
28
@
WASH
W 90-73
+15.5
4
vs
MD
W 78-45
+18.5
7
@
PUR
W 97-93
+13.5
12
vs
WASH
W 85-82
−3.5
13
vs
ILL
W 91-88
+11.5
14
vs
MICH
L 65-68
+9.5
19
vs
HPU
L 82-83
−11.5
covered 21didn’t cover 14avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vs
CAM
W 96-64
+8.5
7
vs
NIU
W 97-72
+11.5
11
vs
BALL
W 86-55
−15.5
17
vs
SIUE
W 94-69
+16.5
21
@
BYU
L 70-98
+2.5
27
vs
PROV
W 104-83
+20.5
28
vs
TCU
L 63-74
−20.5
3
vs
NU
W 85-73
+2.5
6
vs
MARQ
W 96-76
+11.5
10
@
NEB
L 60-90
−8.5
19
vs
VILL
L 66-76
−10.5
22
vs
CMU
W 88-61
−3.5
30
vs
MILW
W 80-60
−17.5
3
vs
PUR
L 73-89
+8.5
6
vs
UCLA
W 80-72
−0.5
10
@
MICH
W 91-88
+9.5
13
@
MINN
W 78-75
+6.5
17
vs
RUTG
W 96-87
+33.5
22
@
PSU
W 98-71
+11.5
25
vs
USC
L 71-73
−14.5
28
vs
MINN
W 67-63
−16.5
31
vs
OSU
W 92-82
+18.5
7
@
IU
L 77-78
−2.5
10
@
ILL
W 92-90
+28.5
13
vs
MSU
W 92-71
+13.5
17
@
OSU
L 69-86
−2.5
22
vs
IOWA
W 84-71
+7.5
25
@
ORE
L 71-85
+3.5
28
@
WASH
W 90-73
+9.5
4
vs
MD
W 78-45
−30.5
7
@
PUR
W 97-93
+35.5
12
vs
WASH
W 85-82
+9.5
13
vs
ILL
W 91-88
+20.5
14
vs
MICH
L 65-68
−28.5
19
vs
HPU
L 82-83
+3.5
over 22under 13avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Wisconsin has the better starters
Position by position: Denver 0, Wisconsin 4, even 1
DenverBetterWisconsin
G C. Johnson19.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast
Score 73
=Even
G E. Elmer TR12.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 68
G K. Martin TR5.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 24
→WISBig
G T. Autry TR10.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 61
G C. Hyland TR5 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 20
→WISBig
G B. Carrington8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 90
F J. Rogers TR5.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 27
→WISBig
F N. Winter13.1 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 96
F S. Wysocki5.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 14
→WISBig
F A. Rapp9.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 83
DenverBetterWisconsin
DEN offense184th of 366 · -5.7
→WISBig
WIS defense40th of 366 · +2.9
DEN defense337th of 366 · -8.9
→WISBig
WIS offense44th of 366 · +4.5
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
→WISBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
→WISBig
Frontcourt+6.7 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
=Even
Bench-2.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDEN betterWIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
C. Johnson36 minK. Martin16 min · TRC. Hyland15 min · TRT. Cady11 min · TRL. ThreattNewJ. NelsonNew
Forwards
J. Rogers27 min · TRS. Wysocki19 minS. Mahoney5 min · TRH. BatesNewC. DimmockNewO. Wickstrom StumerNew
Centers
B. Mbengue9 min · TR
Guards
E. Elmer31 min · TRT. Autry29 min · TRB. Carrington18 minJ. Janicki17 minH. Jones7 minZ. Kinziger6 min
Forwards
N. Winter31 minA. Rapp23 minV. Onuetu18 min · TRW. Garlock7 minI. RiddleNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 80.3 #61 | Points per game | 83.0 #28 |
| 1.16 #53 | Points per possession | 1.18 #27 |
| 69.4 #151 | Pace (possessions) | 70.0 #119 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.6 #79 | Effective FG% | 54.5 #52 |
| 36.8 #32 | 3-point % | 36.2 #50 |
| 38.6 #199 | 3-point attempt rate | 52.1 #6 |
| 34.1 #203 | Free throw rate | 31.5 #267 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.2 #30 | Turnover rate | 12.8 #4 |
| 29.8 #213 | Offensive rebound rate | 29.1 #232 |
| 11.2 #327 | Assists per game | 16.0 #48 |
| Defense | ||
| 84.0 #357 | Points allowed | 76.1 #221 |
| 1.21 #360 | Points allowed per possession | 1.09 #193 |
| 56.0 #344 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.4 #178 |
| 36.7 #338 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.5 #152 |
| 13.0 #355 | Turnovers forced | 14.3 #327 |
| 67.2 #291 | Defensive rebound rate | 71.8 #74 |
| 4.5 #356 | Steals per game | 5.6 #287 |
| 1.9 #348 | Blocks per game | 3.1 #198 |
Denver
12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs North Dakota67–83
- L@ Oral Roberts80–102
- Wvs St Thomas82–80
- Wvs South Dakota90–70
- L@ Omaha76–83
A week or more of rest.
Wisconsin
24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs High Point82–83
- Lvs Michigan65–68
- Wvs Illinois91–88
- Wvs Washington85–82
- W@ Purdue97–93
A week or more of rest.