Kohl Center · at Wisconsin
#263DENDenver
@
#41WISWisconsin
LineWIS -23.5moved 1 toward WIS
Total159.5no move
Season records: Denver and Wisconsin
DENThis seasonWIS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WIS 91–67 · win probability WIS 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
WIS -23.5
moved 1 toward WIS
Total
159.5
model 157.9 · Under by 1.5
Model edge
WIS by 1.5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WIS has more of the edges

DEN 0, WIS 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WISBig
WIS offense vs DEN defense
Offense 44th of 366 against a defense 337th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DEN has played the 249th-hardest schedule, WIS the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WISBig
DEN offense vs WIS defense
Offense 184th of 366 against a defense 40th, on the model’s ratings
WISSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DEN 29.8%, WIS 29.1%. Defensive: DEN 67.2%, WIS 71.8%
WISSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: DEN 53.6 and allows 56.0; WIS 54.5 and allows 51.4
WISSmall
Three-pointers
DEN hits 36.8% and allows 36.7%; WIS hits 36.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 38.6% and 52.1% of their shots
WISSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DEN 34.1, WIS 31.5. Allowed: DEN 36.8, WIS 29.9
WISSmall
Home court
WIS at home. This season: WIS 0-0 at home, DEN 0-0 away
WISSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DEN 27%, WIS 54%. Transfers in: DEN 6, WIS 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DEN 14.2%, WIS 12.8%. Forced: DEN 13.0%, WIS 14.3%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: DEN plays 69.4 a game (151st fastest), WIS 70.0 (119th). Faster games mean more points

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward WIS
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
DEN +2200 · WIS -10000
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened WIS -22.5 · now WIS -23.5 · moved 1 toward WISmodel WIS -25
Opened 159.5 · unchangedmodel 158
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 159.5TotalUnder 159.5
Bets
Money
DENWinnerWIS
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
DENWISOverUnderDENWIS
BetMGMMGM-23.5-105+23.5-115159.5-110159.5-110+2200-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-23-102+23-118159.5-115159.5-105——
BetRiversBetRivers-23.5-112+23.5-112159.5-113159.5-110——
BetUSBetUS-23+100+23-120159.5-115159.5-105——
BovadaBovada-22.5-105+22.5-115159.5-110159.5-110+1600-10000
DraftKingsDK-23.5-115+23.5-105159.5-112159.5-108+2200-8000
FanDuelFD-24.5-114+24.5-106159.5-110159.5-110+3000-10000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-23+102+23-114159.5-113159.5-103——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadWIS -23.5WIS -25.0WIS +1.5
Total159.5157.9Under 1.6
Projected score—DEN 66.5 · WIS 91.4

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadWIS -14.7—
1H total73.8—
1H projected scoreDEN 29.5 · WIS 44.3—

Wisconsin has the better starters

Position by position: Denver 0, Wisconsin 4, even 1
DenverBetterWisconsin
G C. Johnson19.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
Even
G E. Elmer TR12.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
G K. Martin TR5.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24
WISBig
G T. Autry TR10.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
G C. Hyland TR5 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 20
WISBig
G B. Carrington8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
F J. Rogers TR5.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 27
WISBig
F N. Winter13.1 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
F S. Wysocki5.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 14
WISBig
F A. Rapp9.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83
DenverBetterWisconsin
DEN offense184th of 366 · -5.7
WISBig
WIS defense40th of 366 · +2.9
DEN defense337th of 366 · -8.9
WISBig
WIS offense44th of 366 · +4.5
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
WISBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
WISBig
Frontcourt+6.7 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
Even
Bench-2.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDEN betterWIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Denver
Guards
C. Johnson36 minK. Martin16 min · TRC. Hyland15 min · TRT. Cady11 min · TRL. ThreattNewJ. NelsonNew
Forwards
J. Rogers27 min · TRS. Wysocki19 minS. Mahoney5 min · TRH. BatesNewC. DimmockNewO. Wickstrom StumerNew
Centers
B. Mbengue9 min · TR
Wisconsin
Guards
E. Elmer31 min · TRT. Autry29 min · TRB. Carrington18 minJ. Janicki17 minH. Jones7 minZ. Kinziger6 min
Forwards
N. Winter31 minA. Rapp23 minV. Onuetu18 min · TRW. Garlock7 minI. RiddleNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DENWIS
Scoring
80.3 #61Points per game83.0 #28
1.16 #53Points per possession1.18 #27
69.4 #151Pace (possessions)70.0 #119
Shooting
53.6 #79Effective FG%54.5 #52
36.8 #323-point %36.2 #50
38.6 #1993-point attempt rate52.1 #6
34.1 #203Free throw rate31.5 #267
Possessions
14.2 #30Turnover rate12.8 #4
29.8 #213Offensive rebound rate29.1 #232
11.2 #327Assists per game16.0 #48
Defense
84.0 #357Points allowed76.1 #221
1.21 #360Points allowed per possession1.09 #193
56.0 #344Opponent effective FG%51.4 #178
36.7 #338Opponent 3-point %33.5 #152
13.0 #355Turnovers forced14.3 #327
67.2 #291Defensive rebound rate71.8 #74
4.5 #356Steals per game5.6 #287
1.9 #348Blocks per game3.1 #198

Denver

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Dakota67–83
  • L@ Oral Roberts80–102
  • Wvs St Thomas82–80
  • Wvs South Dakota90–70
  • L@ Omaha76–83

A week or more of rest.

Wisconsin

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point82–83
  • Lvs Michigan65–68
  • Wvs Illinois91–88
  • Wvs Washington85–82
  • W@ Purdue97–93

A week or more of rest.