Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 8, 3:00 PM ETHooper Eblen Center · at Tennessee Tech

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Western KY and Tennessee Tech
WKU	This season	TNTC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WKU 79–73 · win probability WKU 71%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WKU has more of the edges

WKU 5, TNTC 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WKUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WKU 14.5%, TNTC 19.1%. Forced: WKU 17.2%, TNTC 15.0%

Context

Schedule so far

WKU has played the 160th-hardest schedule, TNTC the 353rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

WKUBig

WKU offense vs TNTC defense

Offense 115th of 366 against a defense 288th, on the model’s ratings

WKUSmall

TNTC offense vs WKU defense

Offense 276th of 366 against a defense 169th, on the model’s ratings

WKUSmall

Three-pointers

WKU hits 33.4% and allows 34.3%; TNTC hits 31.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 39.5% and 36.5% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: WKU plays 71.5 a game (52nd fastest), TNTC 68.3 (214th). Faster games mean more points

TNTCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WKU 41.2, TNTC 35.5. Allowed: WKU 46.8, TNTC 31.3

TNTCSmall

Home court

TNTC at home. This season: TNTC 0-0 at home, WKU 0-0 away

WKUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WKU 44%, TNTC 18%. Transfers in: WKU 4, TNTC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WKU 31.8%, TNTC 31.3%. Defensive: WKU 70.5%, TNTC 69.3%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WKU 47.5 and allows 51.2; TNTC 48.9 and allows 51.5

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WKU -6.3	—
Total	—	151.4	—
Projected score	—	WKU 78.9 · TNTC 72.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WKU -3.9	—
1H total	70.8	—
1H projected score	WKU 37.3 · TNTC 33.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WWLLL	15-15	50%	5-7	—
TNTC WWWLL	14-14	50%	5-6	—

Venue/role: WKU away; TNTC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OOOUO	15-15	50%	16-14
TNTC OUUUO	14-14	50%	10-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
TNTC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Western KY

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ TLSA	L81–82WO
Nov 20	vs RICH	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs GW	No recent meeting

Tennessee Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	@ IU	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ UNCA	L55–61LU
Nov 21	vs PRES	W90–75WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WKU 1–0 TNTCWKU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WKU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 3, 2025-26	TNTC 70 @ WKU 82	WKU -14.5	TNTC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Western KY

30 games played

Straight up

16-14

53% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1453%

W W W L L W W L L L W W L W W L L L L W L W W W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1550%

L W W W W W L L W L W L L W W L L L W W L W L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U O U O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U O O O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTNTC	W 82-70	-14.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 10	@EKU	W 87-79	-1.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 16	vsTNST	W 95-82	-12.5	W +0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsVAN	L 78-83	+18.5	W +13.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 27	vsUSF	L 91-97	+7.5	W +1.5	167.5	O 188
Nov 28	vsWICH	W 75-70	+4.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	vsEVAN	W 80-79	-11.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 10	@MRSH	L 61-77	+1.5	L −14.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsTLSA	L 81-82	+2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 163
Dec 29	@JXST	L 67-78	-2.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	vsSHSU	W 102-91	-5.5	W +5.5	168.5	O 193
Jan 4	vsLT	W 66-61	-9.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 127
Jan 8	@NMSU	L 64-80	+2.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 144
Jan 10	@UTEP	W 68-56	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 124
Jan 14	vsMOST	W 87-72	-6.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 159
Jan 17	vsKENN	L 65-81	-7.5	L −23.5	165.5	U 146
Jan 21	vsLIB	L 69-76	+1.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 24	@SHSU	L 58-73	+5.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 131
Jan 28	@KENN	L 69-72	+4.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 141
Jan 31	@MTSU	W 65-60	+6.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 125
Feb 5	vsJXST	L 66-71	-4.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsFIU	W 80-70	-4.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 150
Feb 14	vsMTSU	W 82-80	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 162
Feb 18	@DEL	W 88-87	-4.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 175
Feb 21	@LIB	W 94-73	+7.5	W +28.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 26	vsNMSU	W 93-70	-4.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 28	vsUTEP	W 97-65	-9.5	W +22.5	145.5	O 162
Mar 5	@MOST	L 74-87	-1.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 161
Mar 7	@FIU	L 67-92	-1.5	L −26.5	160.5	U 159
Mar 12	vsKENN	L 87-96	-1.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−2.5

EKU

W 87-79

+6.5

TNST

W 95-82

+0.5

VAN

L 78-83

+13.5

USF

L 91-97

+1.5

WICH

W 75-70

+9.5

EVAN

W 80-79

−10.5

MRSH

L 61-77

−14.5

TLSA

L 81-82

+1.5

JXST

L 67-78

−13.5

SHSU

W 102-91

+5.5

W 66-61

−4.5

NMSU

L 64-80

−13.5

UTEP

W 68-56

+8.5

MOST

W 87-72

+8.5

KENN

L 65-81

−23.5

LIB

L 69-76

−5.5

SHSU

L 58-73

−9.5

KENN

L 69-72

+1.5

MTSU

W 65-60

+11.5

JXST

L 66-71

−9.5

FIU

W 80-70

+5.5

MTSU

W 82-80

−1.5

DEL

W 88-87

−3.5

LIB

W 94-73

+28.5

NMSU

W 93-70

+18.5

UTEP

W 97-65

+22.5

MOST

L 74-87

−14.5

FIU

L 67-92

−26.5

KENN

L 87-96

−10.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−1.5

EKU

W 87-79

+3.5

TNST

W 95-82

+9.5

VAN

L 78-83

−7.5

USF

L 91-97

+20.5

WICH

W 75-70

−10.5

EVAN

W 80-79

+11.5

MRSH

L 61-77

−21.5

TLSA

L 81-82

+4.5

JXST

L 67-78

+2.5

SHSU

W 102-91

+24.5

W 66-61

−18.5

NMSU

L 64-80

−10.5

UTEP

W 68-56

−20.5

MOST

W 87-72

+10.5

KENN

L 65-81

−19.5

LIB

L 69-76

−3.5

SHSU

L 58-73

−25.5

KENN

L 69-72

−19.5

MTSU

W 65-60

−15.5

JXST

L 66-71

−3.5

FIU

W 80-70

−9.5

MTSU

W 82-80

+16.5

DEL

W 88-87

+35.5

LIB

W 94-73

+19.5

NMSU

W 93-70

+11.5

UTEP

W 97-65

+16.5

MOST

L 74-87

+8.5

FIU

L 67-92

−1.5

KENN

L 87-96

+23.5

over 15under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tennessee Tech

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-14

50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L L W L L L W W L L L L W L L L L W W W L L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1450%

W W L W L L W W W L L L L W L L L W W W W L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1450%

U U U O O O O U O O O U U U U O O U O O O U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WKU	L 70-82	+14.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 7	@CLT	L 65-70	+12.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 135
Nov 17	vsWGA	L 59-61	-4.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 120
Nov 19	@UPST	W 88-84	+2.5	W +6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 26	@UK	L 54-104	+37.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 158
Nov 29	@UGA	L 81-123	+34.5	L −7.5	160.5	O 204
Dec 3	@LIP	L 80-83	+10.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 163
Dec 6	@WGA	W 87-59	+1.5	W +29.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 18	vsSEMO	W 85-74	+2.5	W +13.5	155.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsUTM	L 62-86	+2.5	L −21.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 30	vsTNST	L 76-88	+1.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 164
Jan 1	@LR	L 58-77	+1.5	L −17.5	144.5	U 135
Jan 8	@EIU	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 10	@WIU	W 59-54	-3.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 15	vsUSI	L 54-71	-5.5	L −22.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 17	vsMORE	L 70-76	-1.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 146
Jan 22	@LIN	L 68-89	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	@SIUE	L 58-62	+7.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 120
Jan 31	vsLR	W 87-77	+1.5	W +11.5	141.5	O 164
Feb 2	@TNST	W 90-85	+7.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 175
Feb 5	vsWIU	W 97-72	-9.5	W +15.5	143.5	O 169
Feb 7	vsEIU	L 54-60	-4.5	L −10.5	140.5	U 114
Feb 12	@MORE	L 66-73	+4.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 139
Feb 14	@USI	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 156
Feb 19	vsSIUE	W 62-52	+1.5	W +11.5	134.5	U 114
Feb 21	vsLIN	W 72-57	+1.5	W +16.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 26	@UTM	L 49-64	+7.5	L −7.5	134.5	U 113
Feb 28	@SEMO	L 73-89	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WKU

L 70-82

+2.5

CLT

L 65-70

+7.5

WGA

L 59-61

−6.5

UPST

W 88-84

+6.5

L 54-104

−12.5

UGA

L 81-123

−7.5

LIP

L 80-83

+7.5

WGA

W 87-59

+29.5

SEMO

W 85-74

+13.5

UTM

L 62-86

−21.5

TNST

L 76-88

−10.5

L 58-77

−17.5

EIU

L 61-71

−11.5

WIU

W 59-54

+1.5

USI

L 54-71

−22.5

L 70-76

−7.5

LIN

L 68-89

−12.5

SIUE

L 58-62

+3.5

W 87-77

+11.5

TNST

W 90-85

+12.5

WIU

W 97-72

+15.5

EIU

L 54-60

−10.5

L 66-73

−2.5

USI

W 82-74

+6.5

SIUE

W 62-52

+11.5

LIN

W 72-57

+16.5

UTM

L 49-64

−7.5

SEMO

L 73-89

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WKU

L 70-82

−1.5

CLT

L 65-70

−11.5

WGA

L 59-61

−32.5

UPST

W 88-84

+21.5

L 54-104

+0.5

UGA

L 81-123

+43.5

LIP

L 80-83

+10.5

WGA

W 87-59

−4.5

SEMO

W 85-74

+3.5

UTM

L 62-86

+2.5

TNST

L 76-88

+8.5

L 58-77

−9.5

EIU

L 61-71

−8.5

WIU

W 59-54

−30.5

USI

L 54-71

−17.5

L 70-76

+4.5

LIN

L 68-89

+5.5

SIUE

L 58-62

−15.5

W 87-77

+22.5

TNST

W 90-85

+21.5

WIU

W 97-72

+25.5

EIU

L 54-60

−26.5

L 66-73

−4.5

USI

W 82-74

+15.5

SIUE

W 62-52

−20.5

LIN

W 72-57

−22.5

UTM

L 49-64

−21.5

SEMO

L 73-89

+20.5

over 14under 14avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Western KY has the better starters

Position by position: Western KY 2, Tennessee Tech 1, even 2

Western KYBetterTennessee Tech

G T. Moore19.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 99

WKUBig

G T. Mosquera TR13.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55

G N. Norgaard TR7.8 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11

Even

G T. Owens7.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17

G A. Boone10.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 61

TNTCSmall

G D. Hackett TR13.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 78

G L. Hackman8.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 64

Even

G C. Newton TR10.5 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 55

F E. Erkins-Ford TR8.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 71

WKUBig

G C. Hollenbeck TR5 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 6

Western KYBetterTennessee Tech

WKU offense115th of 366 · -2.4

WKUBig

TNTC defense288th of 366 · -7.2

WKU defense169th of 366 · -3.9

WKUSmall

TNTC offense276th of 366 · -8.4

Backcourt+3.0 · 4 players

WKUBig

Backcourt-4.8 · 5 players

Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-3.8 · 3 players

TNTCSmall

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestWKU betterTNTC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Western KY

Guards

T. Moore30 minN. Norgaard25 min · TRA. Boone25 minL. Hackman22 minS. Young19 min · TRK. Unseld11 min

Forwards

E. Erkins-Ford22 min · TRE. Walker16 min · TRM. KonareNewG. WeisNewJ. AdebayoNew

Tennessee Tech

Guards

T. Mosquera32 min · TRT. Owens28 minD. Hackett28 min · TRC. Newton26 min · TRC. Hollenbeck17 min · TRC. GonzalesNew

Forwards

D. Christensen13 min · TRM. Turner8 minC. Sanders8 min · TRD. GreenNewS. ArnoldNewK. FoxNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WKU77.9 #95

TNTC70.3 #280

Points per possession

WKU1.09 #163

TNTC1.03 #287

Pace (possessions)

WKU71.5 #52

TNTC68.3 #214

Shooting

Effective FG%

WKU47.5 #327

TNTC48.9 #293

3-point %

WKU33.4 #205

TNTC31.1 #316

3-point attempt rate

WKU39.5 #184

TNTC36.5 #238

Free throw rate

WKU41.2 #42

TNTC35.5 #164

Possessions

Turnover rate

WKU14.5 #42

TNTC19.1 #325

Offensive rebound rate

WKU31.8 #134

TNTC31.3 #151

Assists per game

WKU12.9 #215

TNTC11.0 #337

Defense

Points allowed

WKU77.0 #241

TNTC75.6 #207

Points allowed per possession

WKU1.08 #155

TNTC1.11 #231

Opponent effective FG%

WKU51.2 #169

TNTC51.5 #186

Opponent 3-point %

WKU34.3 #205

TNTC35.8 #295

Turnovers forced

WKU17.2 #134

TNTC15.0 #285

Defensive rebound rate

WKU70.5 #135

TNTC69.3 #192

Steals per game

WKU7.4 #90

TNTC5.4 #312

Blocks per game

WKU2.3 #327

TNTC2.7 #275

WKU		TNTC
Scoring
77.9 #95	Points per game	70.3 #280
1.09 #163	Points per possession	1.03 #287
71.5 #52	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #214
Shooting
47.5 #327	Effective FG%	48.9 #293
33.4 #205	3-point %	31.1 #316
39.5 #184	3-point attempt rate	36.5 #238
41.2 #42	Free throw rate	35.5 #164
Possessions
14.5 #42	Turnover rate	19.1 #325
31.8 #134	Offensive rebound rate	31.3 #151
12.9 #215	Assists per game	11.0 #337
Defense
77.0 #241	Points allowed	75.6 #207
1.08 #155	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #231
51.2 #169	Opponent effective FG%	51.5 #186
34.3 #205	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #295
17.2 #134	Turnovers forced	15.0 #285
70.5 #135	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #192
7.4 #90	Steals per game	5.4 #312
2.3 #327	Blocks per game	2.7 #275

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Western KY

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kennesaw St87–96
L@ FIU67–92
L@ Missouri St74–87
Wvs UTEP97–65
Wvs New Mexico St93–70

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee Tech

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ SE Missouri73–89
L@ UT Martin49–64
Wvs Lindenwood Lions72–57
Wvs SIUE62–52
W@ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles82–74

A week or more of rest.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

What could decide it: WKU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Western KY

Tennessee Tech

Western KY has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Western KY

Tennessee Tech