1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 8
  3. IDST @ AF
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 8

Idaho State Bengals at Air Force Falcons

Clune Arena · at Air Force
#344IDSTIdaho St
@
#220AFAir Force
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
IDSTThis seasonAF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AF 76–67 · win probability AF 77%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

IDST 4, AF 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
IDSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: IDST 32.8%, AF 21.4%. Defensive: IDST 72.1%, AF 68.7%
Context
Schedule so far
IDST has played the 295th-hardest schedule, AF the 119th. A record against a soft schedule means less
AFBig
IDST offense vs AF defense
Offense 324th of 366 against a defense 149th, on the model’s ratings
AFBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: IDST 6%, AF 100%. Transfers in: IDST 1, AF 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
IDSTBig
Three-pointers
IDST hits 33.6% and allows 34.5%; AF hits 30.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 41.9% and 41.8% of their shots
IDSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: IDST 51.9 and allows 54.5; AF 48.9 and allows 56.4
AFSmall
AF offense vs IDST defense
Offense 290th of 366 against a defense 349th, on the model’s ratings
IDSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: IDST 17.1%, AF 21.9%. Forced: IDST 14.6%, AF 15.1%
AFSmall
Home court
AF at home. This season: AF 0-0 at home, IDST 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: IDST 38.0, AF 35.1. Allowed: IDST 38.0, AF 36.6
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: IDST plays 67.3 a game (266th fastest), AF 67.4 (259th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—AF -8.5—
Total—143.0—
Projected score—IDST 67.3 · AF 75.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadAF -4.9—
1H total66.9—
1H projected scoreIDST 31 · AF 35.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Idaho St 0, Air Force 0, even 5
Idaho StBetterAir Force
G L. Birley0.5 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Sanders12.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 77
G E. Harel TR0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G E. Greenberg6.6 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 18
G A. Goffe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F L. Hobin11.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26
G J. Dorsey NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F E. Robinson7.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 39
F Q. Patterson0.9 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Walker10.4 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 82
Idaho StBetterAir Force
IDST offense324th of 366 · -10.6
AFBig
AF defense149th of 366 · -3.3
IDST defense349th of 366 · -9.6
AFSmall
AF offense290th of 366 · -8.9
Backcourt-0.3 · 4 players
IDSTSmall
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-1.3 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-7.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestIDST betterAF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Idaho St
Guards
L. Birley4 minE. Harel1 min · TRA. GoffeNewJ. DorseyNewM. MorrisNewT. VirgilNew
Forwards
Q. Patterson7 minM. JohnsonNewI. PalmerNewK. DeMuynckNewM. JohnsonNewB. LowenbachNew
Air Force
Guards
K. Sanders30 minE. Greenberg27 minA. Patterson14 minJ. Hinds12 minE. Taite2 minT. KeeneNew
Forwards
L. Hobin29 minE. Robinson28 minC. Walker22 minR. Dering14 minK. Gilles13 minB. Martin5 min
Centers
W. Celichowski21 minM. CaslaruNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
IDSTAF
Scoring
73.6 #213Points per game61.5 #362
1.10 #135Points per possession0.91 #363
67.3 #266Pace (possessions)67.4 #259
Shooting
51.9 #151Effective FG%48.9 #292
33.6 #1923-point %30.6 #332
41.9 #1373-point attempt rate41.8 #139
38.0 #104Free throw rate35.1 #174
Possessions
17.1 #213Turnover rate21.9 #362
32.8 #94Offensive rebound rate21.4 #360
11.8 #302Assists per game12.2 #273
Defense
77.6 #255Points allowed79.9 #316
1.14 #314Points allowed per possession1.19 #352
54.5 #315Opponent effective FG%56.4 #350
34.5 #220Opponent 3-point %37.6 #352
14.6 #316Turnovers forced15.1 #280
72.1 #63Defensive rebound rate68.7 #215
5.2 #322Steals per game5.6 #281
4.0 #78Blocks per game2.4 #316
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Idaho St

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Portland St78–85
  • Wvs N Arizona73–65
  • L@ Sacramento St65–83
  • Lvs Weber St73–83
  • Wvs Montana St91–76

A week or more of rest.

Air Force

3-29 in 2025-26 overall · 0-21 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nevada45–80
  • L@ Nevada59–74
  • Lvs Grand Canyon60–86
  • L@ Wyoming62–66
  • Lvs San José St80–86

A week or more of rest.