1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 8
  3. BTLR @ BOIS
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 8

Butler Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos

ExtraMile Arena · at Boise St
#72BTLRButler
@
#86BOISBoise St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BTLRThis seasonBOIS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOIS 78–76 · win probability BOIS 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

BTLR 2, BOIS 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: BTLR plays 71.1 a game (69th fastest), BOIS 68.3 (215th). Faster games mean more points
BOISSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BTLR 34.5%, BOIS 33.2%. Defensive: BTLR 70.0%, BOIS 76.4%
BTLRSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BTLR 15.9%, BOIS 16.9%. Forced: BTLR 15.1%, BOIS 14.6%
BOISSmall
Home court
BOIS at home. This season: BOIS 0-0 at home, BTLR 0-0 away
BTLRSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: BTLR 42.1, BOIS 42.7. Allowed: BTLR 24.9, BOIS 32.1
Context
Schedule so far
BTLR has played the 56th-hardest schedule, BOIS the 82nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BTLR 22%, BOIS 34%. Transfers in: BTLR 5, BOIS 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
BTLR offense vs BOIS defense
Offense 56th of 366 against a defense 74th, on the model’s ratings
Even
BOIS offense vs BTLR defense
Offense 94th of 366 against a defense 107th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
BTLR hits 32.7% and allows 33.3%; BOIS hits 34.3% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 35.0% and 43.1% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: BTLR 50.9 and allows 51.9; BOIS 52.2 and allows 52.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BOIS -2.4—
Total—154.3—
Projected score—BTLR 75.9 · BOIS 78.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBOIS -1.3—
1H total72.1—
1H projected scoreBTLR 35.4 · BOIS 36.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Butler has the better starters

Position by position: Butler 2, Boise St 1, even 2
ButlerBetterBoise St
G J. Ellerbee TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 66
Even
G D. Wheeler-Thomas TR14.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 67
G J. Jackson9.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Washington TR9.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 5.1 ast Score 76
F C. Moore TR11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 46
BOISSmall
F D. Butka TR13.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.6 ast Score 66
F T. Anderson TR10.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92
BTLRSmall
F J. Stanback TR8.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62
C D. Jones6.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
BTLRSmall
F P. Carmichael7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
ButlerBetterBoise St
BTLR offense56th of 366 · +3.1
Even
BOIS defense74th of 366 · +0.7
BTLR defense107th of 366 · -1.1
Even
BOIS offense94th of 366 · -0.5
Backcourt+1.3 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
BTLRSmall
Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Bench+0.9 · 3 players
BTLRSmall
Bench-2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBTLR betterBOIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Butler
Guards
J. Ellerbee28 min · TRJ. Jackson23 minE. Klafke15 min · TRE. McComb1 minB. WalkerNewS. AdlerNew
Forwards
C. Moore26 min · TRT. Anderson19 min · TRS. Calderon4 min · TRH. BrutusNewB. CardinalNewM. MaricNew
Centers
D. Jones20 minK. NdzieNew
Boise St
Guards
D. Wheeler-Thomas31 min · TRL. Washington29 min · TRA. Neto19 minJ. Bowie5 minR. Bergersen2 minB. Ramirez2 min
Forwards
D. Butka34 min · TRJ. Stanback25 min · TRP. Carmichael19 minS. Ahrens13 minB. Buom5 minE. Lathan2 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BTLRBOIS
Scoring
79.4 #75Points per game77.4 #108
1.12 #106Points per possession1.13 #82
71.1 #69Pace (possessions)68.3 #215
Shooting
50.9 #199Effective FG%52.2 #138
32.7 #2423-point %34.3 #151
35.0 #2763-point attempt rate43.1 #114
42.1 #29Free throw rate42.7 #23
Possessions
15.9 #131Turnover rate16.9 #195
34.5 #58Offensive rebound rate33.2 #85
15.5 #64Assists per game12.4 #258
Defense
77.5 #252Points allowed73.2 #137
1.09 #195Points allowed per possession1.08 #145
51.9 #208Opponent effective FG%52.6 #250
33.3 #142Opponent 3-point %34.4 #213
15.1 #272Turnovers forced14.6 #317
70.0 #163Defensive rebound rate76.4 #3
6.5 #178Steals per game4.6 #350
3.2 #191Blocks per game2.1 #339
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Butler

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Providence81–91
  • W@ DePaul81–71
  • Lvs Creighton59–76
  • L@ Villanova73–82
  • Wvs Xavier80–75

A week or more of rest.

Boise St

19-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San José St74–84
  • W@ Colorado St78–67
  • Wvs San Diego St86–77
  • W@ Fresno St69–53
  • Wvs Wyoming72–62

A week or more of rest.