Illinois State Redbirds at Purdue Boilermakers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 8:30 PM ETMackey Arena · at Purdue

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Illinois St and Purdue
ILST	This season	PUR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PUR 81–64 · win probability PUR 93%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PUR has more of the edges

ILST 0, PUR 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

ILST has played the 135th-hardest schedule, PUR the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PURBig

ILST offense vs PUR defense

Offense 133rd of 366 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

PURBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ILST 28.0%, PUR 36.4%. Defensive: ILST 74.6%, PUR 72.9%

PURSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ILST 16.8%, PUR 13.7%. Forced: ILST 16.0%, PUR 15.3%

PURSmall

PUR offense vs ILST defense

Offense 38th of 366 against a defense 102nd, on the model’s ratings

PURSmall

Home court

PUR at home. This season: PUR 0-0 at home, ILST 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: ILST plays 67.7 a game (241st fastest), PUR 65.4 (333rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ILST 53.6 and allows 49.8; PUR 57.6 and allows 52.4

Even

Three-pointers

ILST hits 34.9% and allows 33.0%; PUR hits 38.3% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 43.3% and 40.2% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ILST 31.6, PUR 28.6. Allowed: ILST 32.3, PUR 25.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ILST 37%, PUR 43%. Transfers in: ILST 5, PUR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PUR -16.6	—
Total	—	144.8	—
Projected score	—	ILST 64.1 · PUR 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PUR -9.8	—
1H total	67.8	—
1H projected score	ILST 29 · PUR 38.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILST LWWWL	19-16	54%	6-8	—
PUR WWWLL	17-22	44%	5-12	—

Venue/role: ILST away; PUR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILST UUOUO	15-20	43%	22-13
PUR OOOOU	20-19	51%	30-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILST	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
PUR	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Illinois St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ NDSU	W77–68WO
Nov 17	vs BELL	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs SCU	No recent meeting

Purdue

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs OHIO	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs LIP	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs OAK	W87–77LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Illinois St

35 games played

Straight up

22-13

63% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1363%

L W L W W W W W W L W W W W L L L W W L W L W L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L W L L W W W L W W W W W W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

U U U O U O U O O O U U U U O U O O U U U U O O O U U U O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@OHIO	L 68-72	+1.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 9	vsCOR	W 76-65	-6.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 14	vsUSC	L 67-87	+15.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 154
Nov 16	@LBSU	W 82-80	-8.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 23	vsCCU	W 94-42	-12.5	W +39.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 27	vsCLT	W 79-69	-5.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsFUR	W 72-65	-3.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsEKU	W 89-78	-12.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 167
Dec 6	vsCHST	W 95-53	-20.5	W +21.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 13	vsUSU	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 18	@SIU	W 75-68	+1.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsINST	W 85-65	-13.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 150
Dec 29	@DRKE	W 73-56	-4.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 129
Jan 1	vsEVAN	W 73-47	-12.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 7	@VAL	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsUIC	L 59-63	-10.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 122
Jan 14	@INST	L 89-94	-6.5	L −11.5	148.5	O 183
Jan 17	vsBRAD	W 88-62	-5.5	W +20.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsUNI	W 59-54	-6.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 113
Jan 24	@BEL	L 69-80	+5.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 28	@MUR	W 70-65	+3.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 135
Feb 3	vsSIU	L 50-54	-8.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 104
Feb 6	vsDRKE	W 86-76	-10.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 162
Feb 9	@EVAN	L 80-88	-10.5	L −18.5	137.5	O 168
Feb 12	vsVAL	W 86-64	-8.5	W +13.5	138.5	O 150
Feb 15	@UIC	L 56-83	-1.5	L −28.5	140.5	U 139
Feb 18	vsMUR	W 78-61	-2.5	W +14.5	158.5	U 139
Feb 21	@BRAD	L 60-74	+3.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 134
Feb 25	@UNI	W 71-69	+4.5	W +6.5	132.5	O 140
Mar 1	vsBEL	W 81-74	+1.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 155
Mar 6	vsUNI	L 52-74	+1.5	L −20.5	130.5	U 126
Mar 18	vsKENT	W 79-58	-4.5	W +16.5	154.5	U 137
Mar 22	@WAKE	W 78-75	+8.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 153
Mar 25	@DAY	W 61-55	+7.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 116
Apr 2	vsAUB	L 66-88	+7.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−2.5

COR

W 76-65

+4.5

USC

L 67-87

−4.5

LBSU

W 82-80

−6.5

CCU

W 94-42

+39.5

CLT

W 79-69

+4.5

FUR

W 72-65

+3.5

EKU

W 89-78

−1.5

CHST

W 95-53

+21.5

USU

L 78-83

+3.5

SIU

W 75-68

+8.5

INST

W 85-65

+6.5

DRKE

W 73-56

+12.5

EVAN

W 73-47

+13.5

VAL

L 71-77

−12.5

UIC

L 59-63

−14.5

INST

L 89-94

−11.5

BRAD

W 88-62

+20.5

UNI

W 59-54

−1.5

BEL

L 69-80

−5.5

MUR

W 70-65

+8.5

SIU

L 50-54

−12.5

DRKE

W 86-76

−0.5

EVAN

L 80-88

−18.5

VAL

W 86-64

+13.5

UIC

L 56-83

−28.5

MUR

W 78-61

+14.5

BRAD

L 60-74

−10.5

UNI

W 71-69

+6.5

BEL

W 81-74

+8.5

UNI

L 52-74

−20.5

KENT

W 79-58

+16.5

WAKE

W 78-75

+11.5

DAY

W 61-55

+13.5

AUB

L 66-88

−14.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−21.5

COR

W 76-65

−23.5

USC

L 67-87

−1.5

LBSU

W 82-80

+20.5

CCU

W 94-42

−10.5

CLT

W 79-69

+8.5

FUR

W 72-65

−8.5

EKU

W 89-78

+12.5

CHST

W 95-53

+3.5

USU

L 78-83

+12.5

SIU

W 75-68

−10.5

INST

W 85-65

−2.5

DRKE

W 73-56

−16.5

EVAN

W 73-47

−24.5

VAL

L 71-77

+9.5

UIC

L 59-63

−19.5

INST

L 89-94

+34.5

BRAD

W 88-62

+2.5

UNI

W 59-54

−19.5

BEL

L 69-80

−1.5

MUR

W 70-65

−24.5

SIU

L 50-54

−36.5

DRKE

W 86-76

+17.5

EVAN

L 80-88

+30.5

VAL

W 86-64

+11.5

UIC

L 56-83

−1.5

MUR

W 78-61

−19.5

BRAD

L 60-74

−11.5

UNI

W 71-69

+7.5

BEL

W 81-74

+4.5

UNI

L 52-74

−4.5

KENT

W 79-58

−17.5

WAKE

W 78-75

+0.5

DAY

W 61-55

−24.5

AUB

L 66-88

+4.5

over 15under 20avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Purdue

39 games played

Straight up

30-9

77% wins

Against the spread

17-22

44% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-19

51% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-977%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L L L W W W W L W L L W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2244%

L L W L L W W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L W W L W L L L L L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1951%

U O U O U U O U U U U U O O U O O U U O U O U O U O O O O U O O U U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEVAN	W 82-51	-33.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsOAK	W 87-77	-31.5	L −21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 13	@ALA	W 87-80	+3.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 16	vsAKR	W 97-79	-18.5	L −0.5	163.5	O 176
Nov 20	vsMEM	W 80-71	-14.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 21	vsTTU	W 86-56	-3.5	W +26.5	153.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsEIU	W 109-62	-40.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 171
Dec 2	@RUTG	W 81-65	-13.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 6	vsISU	L 58-81	-4.5	L −27.5	154.5	U 139
Dec 10	vsMINN	W 85-57	-19.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsMARQ	W 79-59	-16.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 138
Dec 20	vsAUB	W 88-60	-7.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 29	vsKENT	W 101-60	-24.5	W +16.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 3	@WIS	W 89-73	-5.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 7	vsWASH	W 81-73	-16.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 10	vsPSU	W 93-85	-22.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 178
Jan 14	vsIOWA	W 79-72	-10.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 151
Jan 17	@USC	W 69-64	-9.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 133
Jan 20	@UCLA	L 67-69	-5.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 24	vsILL	L 82-88	-5.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 27	@IU	L 67-72	-4.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 139
Feb 1	@MD	W 93-63	-15.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 7	vsORE	W 68-64	-19.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 132
Feb 10	@NEB	W 80-77	+2.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 14	@IOWA	W 78-57	-2.5	W +18.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 17	vsMICH	L 80-91	+2.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 171
Feb 20	vsIU	W 93-64	-11.5	W +17.5	150.5	O 157
Feb 26	vsMSU	L 74-76	-5.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 150
Mar 1	@OSU	L 74-82	-6.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 156
Mar 4	@NU	W 70-66	-12.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 136
Mar 7	vsWIS	L 93-97	-9.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 190
Mar 12	vsNU	W 81-68	-13.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 149
Mar 13	vsNEB	W 74-58	-4.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 132
Mar 14	vsUCLA	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 15	vsMICH	W 80-72	+4.5	W +12.5	149.5	O 152
Mar 20	vsQUC	W 104-71	-25.5	W +7.5	159.5	O 175
Mar 22	vsMIA	W 79-69	-8.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 148
Mar 26	vsTEX	W 79-77	-8.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 156
Mar 28	vsARIZ	L 64-79	+5.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−2.5

OAK

W 87-77

−21.5

ALA

W 87-80

+10.5

AKR

W 97-79

−0.5

MEM

W 80-71

−5.5

TTU

W 86-56

+26.5

EIU

W 109-62

+6.5

RUTG

W 81-65

+2.5

ISU

L 58-81

−27.5

MINN

W 85-57

+8.5

MARQ

W 79-59

+3.5

AUB

W 88-60

+20.5

KENT

W 101-60

+16.5

WIS

W 89-73

+10.5

WASH

W 81-73

−8.5

PSU

W 93-85

−14.5

IOWA

W 79-72

−3.5

USC

W 69-64

−4.5

UCLA

L 67-69

−7.5

ILL

L 82-88

−11.5

L 67-72

−9.5

W 93-63

+14.5

ORE

W 68-64

−15.5

NEB

W 80-77

+5.5

IOWA

W 78-57

+18.5

MICH

L 80-91

−8.5

W 93-64

+17.5

MSU

L 74-76

−7.5

OSU

L 74-82

−14.5

W 70-66

−8.5

WIS

L 93-97

−13.5

W 81-68

−0.5

NEB

W 74-58

+11.5

UCLA

W 73-66

−0.5

MICH

W 80-72

+12.5

QUC

W 104-71

+7.5

MIA

W 79-69

+1.5

TEX

W 79-77

−6.5

ARIZ

L 64-79

−9.5

covered 17didn’t cover 22avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−17.5

OAK

W 87-77

+5.5

ALA

W 87-80

−5.5

AKR

W 97-79

+12.5

MEM

W 80-71

−5.5

TTU

W 86-56

−11.5

EIU

W 109-62

+29.5

RUTG

W 81-65

−0.5

ISU

L 58-81

−15.5

MINN

W 85-57

−1.5

MARQ

W 79-59

−16.5

AUB

W 88-60

−4.5

KENT

W 101-60

+5.5

WIS

W 89-73

+8.5

WASH

W 81-73

−0.5

PSU

W 93-85

+25.5

IOWA

W 79-72

+5.5

USC

W 69-64

−22.5

UCLA

L 67-69

−11.5

ILL

L 82-88

+17.5

L 67-72

−11.5

W 93-63

+7.5

ORE

W 68-64

−12.5

NEB

W 80-77

+10.5

IOWA

W 78-57

−7.5

MICH

L 80-91

+14.5

W 93-64

+6.5

MSU

L 74-76

+6.5

OSU

L 74-82

+6.5

W 70-66

−9.5

WIS

L 93-97

+35.5

W 81-68

+9.5

NEB

W 74-58

−13.5

UCLA

W 73-66

−4.5

MICH

W 80-72

+2.5

QUC

W 104-71

+15.5

MIA

W 79-69

+1.5

TEX

W 79-77

+9.5

ARIZ

L 64-79

−9.5

over 20under 19avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Purdue has the better starters

Position by position: Illinois St 0, Purdue 5, even 0

Illinois StBetterPurdue

G M. Messina-Moore TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 57

PURSmall

G C. Cox8.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82

G J. Kinziger11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 51

PURSmall

G G. Harris4.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75

G D. Garang TR10.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30

PURBig

G J. Benter4.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75

G Z. King TR7.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 24

PURBig

G O. Mayer5.5 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64

G D. Burch TR9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

PURBig

C D. Jacobsen5.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 88

Illinois StBetterPurdue

ILST offense133rd of 366 · -3.9

PURSmall

PUR defense18th of 366 · +6.0

ILST defense102nd of 366 · -0.9

PURSmall

PUR offense38th of 366 · +5.0

Backcourt-6.6 · 5 players

PURBig

Backcourt+2.4 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+1.8 · 1 player

Bench+3.4 · 4 players

ILSTBig

Bench-0.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestILST betterPUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Illinois St

Guards

M. Messina-Moore33 min · TRJ. Kinziger33 minD. Garang30 min · TRZ. King27 min · TRD. Burch23 min · TRM. Klabo16 min

Forwards

C. Walker23 minL. Semona6 min · TRN. ClevelandNewN. AllenNewL. WolfNewM. SzafoniNew

Purdue

Guards

C. Cox24 minG. Harris16 minJ. Benter15 minO. Mayer14 minJ. Rayl2 minJ. Lusk2 min

Forwards

S. KingNewC. PierceNewE. ShahrvinNewR. BurgessNewR. KnightNew

Centers

D. Jacobsen13 minS. HuanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ILST74.1 #191

PUR81.6 #35

Points per possession

ILST1.09 #151

PUR1.25 #2

Pace (possessions)

ILST67.7 #241

PUR65.4 #333

Shooting

Effective FG%

ILST53.6 #77

PUR57.6 #10

3-point %

ILST34.9 #126

PUR38.3 #11

3-point attempt rate

ILST43.3 #106

PUR40.2 #164

Free throw rate

ILST31.6 #266

PUR28.6 #336

Possessions

Turnover rate

ILST16.8 #193

PUR13.7 #16

Offensive rebound rate

ILST28.0 #268

PUR36.4 #19

Assists per game

ILST13.5 #179

PUR19.6 #2

Defense

Points allowed

ILST69.1 #49

PUR70.5 #65

Points allowed per possession

ILST1.02 #48

PUR1.08 #162

Opponent effective FG%

ILST49.8 #90

PUR52.4 #232

Opponent 3-point %

ILST33.0 #122

PUR34.1 #192

Turnovers forced

ILST16.0 #221

PUR15.3 #263

Defensive rebound rate

ILST74.6 #13

PUR72.9 #39

Steals per game

ILST5.5 #294

PUR5.5 #297

Blocks per game

ILST2.3 #326

PUR2.8 #257

ILST		PUR
Scoring
74.1 #191	Points per game	81.6 #35
1.09 #151	Points per possession	1.25 #2
67.7 #241	Pace (possessions)	65.4 #333
Shooting
53.6 #77	Effective FG%	57.6 #10
34.9 #126	3-point %	38.3 #11
43.3 #106	3-point attempt rate	40.2 #164
31.6 #266	Free throw rate	28.6 #336
Possessions
16.8 #193	Turnover rate	13.7 #16
28.0 #268	Offensive rebound rate	36.4 #19
13.5 #179	Assists per game	19.6 #2
Defense
69.1 #49	Points allowed	70.5 #65
1.02 #48	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #162
49.8 #90	Opponent effective FG%	52.4 #232
33.0 #122	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #192
16.0 #221	Turnovers forced	15.3 #263
74.6 #13	Defensive rebound rate	72.9 #39
5.5 #294	Steals per game	5.5 #297
2.3 #326	Blocks per game	2.8 #257

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Illinois St

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn66–88
W@ Dayton61–55
W@ Wake Forest78–75
Wvs Kent State79–58
Lvs Northern Iowa52–74

A week or more of rest.

Purdue

30-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arizona64–79
Wvs Texas79–77
Wvs Miami79–69
Wvs Queens University Royals104–71
Wvs Michigan80–72

A week or more of rest.

Illinois State Redbirds at Purdue Boilermakers

What could decide it: PUR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Illinois St

Purdue

Purdue has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Illinois St

Purdue