1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 9
  3. APP @ AUB
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 9

App State Mountaineers at Auburn Tigers

Neville Arena · at Auburn
#248APPApp State
@
#21AUBAuburn
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
APPThis seasonAUB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AUB 88–60 · win probability AUB 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 147.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AUB has more of the edges

APP 1, AUB 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
AUBBig
APP offense vs AUB defense
Offense 328th of 366 against a defense 41st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
APP has played the 252nd-hardest schedule, AUB the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less
AUBBig
AUB offense vs APP defense
Offense 16th of 366 against a defense 148th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: APP plays 64.3 a game (358th fastest), AUB 69.7 (136th). Faster games mean more points
AUBSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: APP 15.3%, AUB 14.6%. Forced: APP 14.0%, AUB 16.3%
APPSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: APP 49.9 and allows 47.5; AUB 53.0 and allows 53.7
AUBSmall
Home court
AUB at home. This season: AUB 0-0 at home, APP 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
APP hits 30.4% and allows 32.2%; AUB hits 34.4% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 45.9% and 40.2% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: APP 25%, AUB 38%. Transfers in: APP 2, AUB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: APP 32.0%, AUB 37.0%. Defensive: APP 71.0%, AUB 69.1%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: APP 39.1, AUB 43.2. Allowed: APP 31.2, AUB 34.3
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—AUB -27.9—
Total—147.7—
Projected score—APP 59.9 · AUB 87.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadAUB -16.5—
1H total69.1—
1H projected scoreAPP 26.3 · AUB 42.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Auburn has the better starters

Position by position: App State 0, Auburn 4, even 1
App StateBetterAuburn
G H. Koffi TR12.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30
AUBBig
G T. Pettiford15.4 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 88
G E. Banks6.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
AUBBig
G K. Overton14.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 90
F C. Moodie2.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 15
AUBBig
G K. King TR7.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83
F A. Njock2.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 37
AUBBig
F T. Dowd TR14.5 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 83
C R. Elezaj TR0 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. Olsen TR17 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 66
App StateBetterAuburn
APP offense328th of 366 · -10.6
AUBBig
AUB defense41st of 366 · +2.8
APP defense148th of 366 · -3.2
AUBBig
AUB offense16th of 366 · +8.7
Backcourt-5.2 · 2 players
AUBBig
Backcourt+6.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players
AUBBig
Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players
Bench+0.0 · 1 player
AUBBig
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestAPP betterAUB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
App State
Guards
H. Koffi36 min · TRE. Banks26 minC. O'Kelley1 minL. LedfordNewB. KopetzkiNewJ. ColonNew
Forwards
C. Moodie12 minA. Njock11 minD. LytchNewG. ClaytonNewT. NealNew
Centers
R. Elezaj1 min · TRB. ChretienNew
Auburn
Guards
T. Pettiford32 minK. Overton32 minK. King19 min · TRB. Muschalek6 minS. Walker5 minD. Cardwell1 min
Forwards
T. Dowd37 min · TRA. Olsen37 min · TRO. Freeman12 min · TRJ. BowmanNew
Centers
B. Oboye18 min · TRN. NgoyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
APPAUB
Scoring
69.3 #295Points per game83.0 #27
1.08 #187Points per possession1.19 #19
64.3 #358Pace (possessions)69.7 #136
Shooting
49.9 #240Effective FG%53.0 #104
30.4 #3353-point %34.4 #147
45.9 #483-point attempt rate40.2 #166
39.1 #77Free throw rate43.2 #19
Possessions
15.3 #87Turnover rate14.6 #45
32.0 #123Offensive rebound rate37.0 #15
11.4 #318Assists per game13.2 #198
Defense
67.4 #25Points allowed78.8 #287
1.05 #87Points allowed per possession1.13 #281
47.5 #33Opponent effective FG%53.7 #291
32.2 #71Opponent 3-point %36.7 #336
14.0 #336Turnovers forced16.3 #201
71.0 #106Defensive rebound rate69.1 #196
4.6 #351Steals per game7.5 #83
3.4 #155Blocks per game4.1 #63
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

App State

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss73–86
  • L@ Texas St57–60
  • Wvs GA Southern89–74
  • Lvs Marshall93–94
  • L@ James Madison58–69

A week or more of rest.

Auburn

22-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs Tulsa92–86
  • Wvs Illinois St88–66
  • Wvs Nevada75–69
  • Wvs Seattle U91–85
  • Wvs South Alabama78–67

A week or more of rest.