Alabama A&M Bulldogs at DePaul Blue Demons: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 9:00 PM ETWintrust Arena · at DePaul

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alabama A&M and DePaul
AAMU	This season	DEP
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEP 83–57 · win probability DEP 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEP has more of the edges

AAMU 2, DEP 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DEPBig

AAMU offense vs DEP defense

Offense 325th of 366 against a defense 31st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

AAMU has played the 363rd-hardest schedule, DEP the 72nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

DEPBig

DEP offense vs AAMU defense

Offense 92nd of 366 against a defense 305th, on the model’s ratings

DEPSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: AAMU 49.2 and allows 52.1; DEP 49.8 and allows 49.3

AAMUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: AAMU 45.4, DEP 35.3. Allowed: AAMU 38.6, DEP 37.8

AAMUSmall

Three-pointers

AAMU hits 35.0% and allows 35.4%; DEP hits 32.5% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 34.0% and 39.0% of their shots

DEPSmall

Home court

DEP at home. This season: DEP 0-0 at home, AAMU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AAMU 51%, DEP 38%. Transfers in: AAMU 2, DEP 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AAMU 16.5%, DEP 17.7%. Forced: AAMU 16.6%, DEP 18.7%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AAMU 27.4%, DEP 30.1%. Defensive: AAMU 70.5%, DEP 69.0%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: AAMU plays 67.6 a game (250th fastest), DEP 67.7 (240th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DEP -25.9	—
Total	—	140.7	—
Projected score	—	AAMU 57.4 · DEP 83.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DEP -15.3	—
1H total	65.9	—
1H projected score	AAMU 25.3 · DEP 40.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AAMU LWLWL	16-14	53%	5-7	—
DEP WWLLL	20-12	63%	10-8	—

Venue/role: AAMU away; DEP home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
AAMU OUOOU	15-15	50%	15-15
DEP OUUOU	11-21	34%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AAMU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
DEP	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alabama A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	vs UWF	No recent meeting
Nov 15	vs CLE	L59–86LU
Nov 20	vs LIP	L58–92LO

DePaul

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ NU	L79–81WO
Nov 17	vs UMES	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs PUR	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama A&M

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L W W L L W L W L L L W L W W L W W L L W W W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L W W L W W L W W L L W L W W L W W L L W L W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U U O U U O U O O O U U O U O U U O O U U O U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@IU	L 51-98	+30.5	L −16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 13	vsCHSO	W 68-64	-1.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 132
Nov 16	vsLIN	W 74-65	-3.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 28	@CLEM	L 56-92	+27.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 30	@CCU	L 60-67	+7.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 3	vsTNST	W 80-53	+4.5	W +31.5	147.5	U 133
Dec 7	@LIP	L 58-92	+11.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 15	vsUNA	W 68-60	+4.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 128
Dec 17	vsMISS	L 66-80	+20.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Dec 21	vsUTC	L 66-73	+2.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 3	@UAPB	L 83-95	-1.5	L −13.5	149.5	O 178
Jan 5	@MVSU	W 71-51	-10.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 122
Jan 10	vsALCN	L 62-64	-9.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 126
Jan 12	vsJKST	W 100-91	-6.5	W +2.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 19	vsALST	W 73-69	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 142
Jan 24	@TXSO	L 74-89	-1.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 163
Jan 27	@PV	W 80-60	+2.5	W +22.5	152.5	U 140
Jan 31	vsFAMU	W 72-65	-3.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 2	vsBCU	L 62-80	+2.5	L −15.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 7	@SOU	L 68-81	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 9	@GRAM	W 66-58	+4.5	W +12.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsMVSU	W 72-65	-15.5	L −8.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 16	vsUAPB	W 82-70	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 19	@FAMU	W 63-61	+1.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 21	@BCU	L 76-85	+6.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 161
Feb 28	vsALST	L 88-89	-1.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 177
Mar 3	vsGRAM	W 77-63	-2.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 140
Mar 5	vsSOU	L 85-88	+1.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 173
Mar 12	vsTXSO	W 85-74	-1.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsPV	L 55-74	-1.5	L −20.5	140.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-98

−16.5

CHSO

W 68-64

+2.5

LIN

W 74-65

+5.5

CLEM

L 56-92

−8.5

CCU

L 60-67

+0.5

TNST

W 80-53

+31.5

LIP

L 58-92

−22.5

UNA

W 68-60

+12.5

MISS

L 66-80

+6.5

UTC

L 66-73

−4.5

UAPB

L 83-95

−13.5

MVSU

W 71-51

+9.5

ALCN

L 62-64

−11.5

JKST

W 100-91

+2.5

ALST

W 73-69

+5.5

TXSO

L 74-89

−16.5

W 80-60

+22.5

FAMU

W 72-65

+3.5

BCU

L 62-80

−15.5

SOU

L 68-81

−6.5

GRAM

W 66-58

+12.5

MVSU

W 72-65

−8.5

UAPB

W 82-70

+8.5

FAMU

W 63-61

+3.5

BCU

L 76-85

−2.5

ALST

L 88-89

−2.5

GRAM

W 77-63

+11.5

SOU

L 85-88

−1.5

TXSO

W 85-74

+9.5

L 55-74

−20.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-98

+1.5

CHSO

W 68-64

−20.5

LIN

W 74-65

−10.5

CLEM

L 56-92

+6.5

CCU

L 60-67

−13.5

TNST

W 80-53

−14.5

LIP

L 58-92

+3.5

UNA

W 68-60

−12.5

MISS

L 66-80

+10.5

UTC

L 66-73

+0.5

UAPB

L 83-95

+28.5

MVSU

W 71-51

−13.5

ALCN

L 62-64

−14.5

JKST

W 100-91

+50.5

ALST

W 73-69

−4.5

TXSO

L 74-89

+17.5

W 80-60

−12.5

FAMU

W 72-65

−1.5

BCU

L 62-80

+0.5

SOU

L 68-81

+5.5

GRAM

W 66-58

−12.5

MVSU

W 72-65

−1.5

UAPB

W 82-70

+7.5

FAMU

W 63-61

−15.5

BCU

L 76-85

+18.5

ALST

L 88-89

+33.5

GRAM

W 77-63

−0.5

SOU

L 85-88

+27.5

TXSO

W 85-74

+16.5

L 55-74

−11.5

over 15under 15avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

DePaul

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

20-12

63% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-21

34% overs · avg −5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

W W L L W W W L W W W L L L W W L W L W L L L L W W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

20-1263%

W L L W W W W L L W W W L W W W W W W W L W L L W W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-2134%

O U U O U O U O U U U U U U O U U O O U U U U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHST	W 92-62	-24.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsSTO	W 72-64	-22.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 11	vsBUF	L 53-66	-18.5	L −31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 14	vsNU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 18	vsGWEB	W 93-62	-21.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsDETM	W 95-75	-19.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 170
Nov 28	vsGT	W 75-61	-1.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsLSU	L 63-96	+5.5	L −27.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsUAPB	W 76-72	-23.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 148
Dec 9	vsMORG	W 92-49	-21.5	W +21.5	150.5	U 141
Dec 13	@WICH	W 61-58	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 16	@SJU	L 66-79	+19.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Dec 21	vsCONN	L 54-72	+12.5	L −5.5	133.5	U 126
Dec 31	@VILL	L 66-71	+12.5	W +7.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	vsXAV	W 86-77	-2.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 163
Jan 6	vsGTWN	W 56-50	-2.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 106
Jan 10	@CONN	L 60-72	+19.5	W +7.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 16	vsMARQ	W 80-75	-2.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 20	@BTLR	L 80-87	+7.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 167
Jan 24	vsHALL	W 67-60	+2.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 28	@GTWN	L 61-70	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 131
Jan 31	@XAV	L 66-68	+4.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 3	vsSJU	L 56-68	+9.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 124
Feb 7	@PROV	L 72-90	+4.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 11	vsCREI	W 72-71	+1.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 143
Feb 18	@HALL	W 69-57	+7.5	W +19.5	129.5	U 126
Feb 21	vsPROV	L 68-71	-2.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 25	@CREI	W 72-71	+3.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 143
Mar 1	@MARQ	W 62-51	+4.5	W +15.5	139.5	U 113
Mar 4	vsVILL	L 57-76	+1.5	L −17.5	135.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsBTLR	L 71-81	-4.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 152
Mar 11	vsGTWN	L 56-63	+1.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+5.5

STO

W 72-64

−14.5

BUF

L 53-66

−31.5

L 79-81

+3.5

GWEB

W 93-62

+9.5

DETM

W 95-75

+0.5

W 75-61

+12.5

LSU

L 63-96

−27.5

UAPB

W 76-72

−19.5

MORG

W 92-49

+21.5

WICH

W 61-58

+10.5

SJU

L 66-79

+6.5

CONN

L 54-72

−5.5

VILL

L 66-71

+7.5

XAV

W 86-77

+6.5

GTWN

W 56-50

+3.5

CONN

L 60-72

+7.5

MARQ

W 80-75

+2.5

BTLR

L 80-87

+0.5

HALL

W 67-60

+9.5

GTWN

L 61-70

−5.5

XAV

L 66-68

+2.5

SJU

L 56-68

−2.5

PROV

L 72-90

−13.5

CREI

W 72-71

+2.5

HALL

W 69-57

+19.5

PROV

L 68-71

−5.5

CREI

W 72-71

+4.5

MARQ

W 62-51

+15.5

VILL

L 57-76

−17.5

BTLR

L 71-81

−14.5

GTWN

L 56-63

−5.5

covered 20didn’t cover 12avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+10.5

STO

W 72-64

−11.5

BUF

L 53-66

−34.5

L 79-81

+14.5

GWEB

W 93-62

−0.5

DETM

W 95-75

+18.5

W 75-61

−11.5

LSU

L 63-96

+6.5

UAPB

W 76-72

−8.5

MORG

W 92-49

−9.5

WICH

W 61-58

−26.5

SJU

L 66-79

−2.5

CONN

L 54-72

−7.5

VILL

L 66-71

−2.5

XAV

W 86-77

+13.5

GTWN

W 56-50

−38.5

CONN

L 60-72

−5.5

MARQ

W 80-75

+9.5

BTLR

L 80-87

+19.5

HALL

W 67-60

−8.5

GTWN

L 61-70

−8.5

XAV

L 66-68

−16.5

SJU

L 56-68

−21.5

PROV

L 72-90

+8.5

CREI

W 72-71

+1.5

HALL

W 69-57

−3.5

PROV

L 68-71

−13.5

CREI

W 72-71

+0.5

MARQ

W 62-51

−26.5

VILL

L 57-76

−2.5

BTLR

L 71-81

+9.5

GTWN

L 56-63

−17.5

over 11under 21avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

DePaul has the better starters

Position by position: Alabama A&M 0, DePaul 4, even 1

Alabama A&MBetterDePaul

G S. Pissis10.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 38

DEPBig

G K. Holmes TR19.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

G J. Graham9.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 41

DEPSmall

G A. Popoola TR10.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57

G J. Edwards TR6.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 9

DEPBig

G L. Blocker11.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 77

G G. Kincy3.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 3

DEPBig

G K. Cotton TR14.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87

G B. Abdur-Rahman4.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 65

Even

C W. Jacques TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1 ast Score 52

Alabama A&MBetterDePaul

AAMU offense325th of 366 · -10.6

DEPBig

DEP defense31st of 366 · +3.5

AAMU defense305th of 366 · -7.8

DEPBig

DEP offense92nd of 366 · -0.3

Backcourt-8.1 · 5 players

DEPBig

Backcourt+7.2 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player

Bench-3.2 · 3 players

DEPBig

Bench+0.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestAAMU betterDEP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alabama A&M

Guards

S. Pissis30 minJ. Graham25 minJ. Edwards23 min · TRG. Kincy19 minB. Abdur-Rahman12 minN. Johnson10 min · TR

Forwards

S. Onu7 minS. WalkerNewD. MeriwetherNewK. PaulNewD. BrownNew

DePaul

Guards

K. Holmes32 min · TRA. Popoola29 min · TRL. Blocker29 minK. Cotton28 min · TRN. Meeusen27 min · TRK. McClure19 min

Forwards

M. Gwath19 min · TRT. Pierre-Justin16 minJ. JohnsonNewA. JensenNew

Centers

W. Jacques28 min · TRF. Flores11 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AAMU71.4 #261

DEP70.3 #279

Points per possession

AAMU1.05 #240

DEP1.04 #280

Pace (possessions)

AAMU67.6 #250

DEP67.7 #240

Shooting

Effective FG%

AAMU49.2 #281

DEP49.8 #243

3-point %

AAMU35.0 #114

DEP32.5 #253

3-point attempt rate

AAMU34.0 #295

DEP39.0 #191

Free throw rate

AAMU45.4 #3

DEP35.3 #169

Possessions

Turnover rate

AAMU16.5 #167

DEP17.7 #253

Offensive rebound rate

AAMU27.4 #283

DEP30.1 #197

Assists per game

AAMU11.2 #328

DEP15.0 #87

Defense

Points allowed

AAMU73.9 #152

DEP69.6 #57

Points allowed per possession

AAMU1.09 #212

DEP1.03 #55

Opponent effective FG%

AAMU52.1 #220

DEP49.3 #77

Opponent 3-point %

AAMU35.4 #272

DEP35.4 #274

Turnovers forced

AAMU16.6 #176

DEP18.7 #64

Defensive rebound rate

AAMU70.5 #138

DEP69.0 #205

Steals per game

AAMU6.2 #211

DEP6.9 #134

Blocks per game

AAMU2.7 #271

DEP3.4 #152

AAMU		DEP
Scoring
71.4 #261	Points per game	70.3 #279
1.05 #240	Points per possession	1.04 #280
67.6 #250	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #240
Shooting
49.2 #281	Effective FG%	49.8 #243
35.0 #114	3-point %	32.5 #253
34.0 #295	3-point attempt rate	39.0 #191
45.4 #3	Free throw rate	35.3 #169
Possessions
16.5 #167	Turnover rate	17.7 #253
27.4 #283	Offensive rebound rate	30.1 #197
11.2 #328	Assists per game	15.0 #87
Defense
73.9 #152	Points allowed	69.6 #57
1.09 #212	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #55
52.1 #220	Opponent effective FG%	49.3 #77
35.4 #272	Opponent 3-point %	35.4 #274
16.6 #176	Turnovers forced	18.7 #64
70.5 #138	Defensive rebound rate	69.0 #205
6.2 #211	Steals per game	6.9 #134
2.7 #271	Blocks per game	3.4 #152

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama A&M

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View55–74
Wvs Texas Southern85–74
Lvs Southern85–88
Wvs Grambling77–63
Lvs Alabama St88–89

A week or more of rest.

DePaul

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Georgetown56–63
Lvs Butler71–81
Lvs Villanova57–76
W@ Marquette62–51
W@ Creighton72–71

A week or more of rest.

Alabama A&M Bulldogs at DePaul Blue Demons

What could decide it: DEP has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama A&M

DePaul

DePaul has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alabama A&M

DePaul