1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. VAL @ PUR
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Valparaiso Beacons at Purdue Boilermakers

Mackey Arena · at Purdue
#176VALValparaiso
@
#23PURPurdue
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
VALThis seasonPUR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PUR 84–62 · win probability PUR 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PUR has more of the edges

VAL 0, PUR 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
PURBig
VAL offense vs PUR defense
Offense 199th of 366 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
VAL has played the 143rd-hardest schedule, PUR the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PURBig
PUR offense vs VAL defense
Offense 38th of 366 against a defense 170th, on the model’s ratings
PURBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: VAL 32.5%, PUR 36.4%. Defensive: VAL 69.9%, PUR 72.9%
PURSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: VAL 47.6 and allows 50.5; PUR 57.6 and allows 52.4
PURSmall
Home court
PUR at home. This season: PUR 0-0 at home, VAL 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: VAL 39.1, PUR 28.6. Allowed: VAL 35.1, PUR 25.5
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: VAL plays 67.4 a game (258th fastest), PUR 65.4 (333rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
VAL hits 33.9% and allows 32.1%; PUR hits 38.3% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 36.8% and 40.2% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: VAL 51%, PUR 43%. Transfers in: VAL 2, PUR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: VAL 15.7%, PUR 13.7%. Forced: VAL 16.9%, PUR 15.3%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PUR -21.4—
Total—145.5—
Projected score—VAL 62.1 · PUR 83.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPUR -12.6—
1H total68.1—
1H projected scoreVAL 27.7 · PUR 40.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Purdue has the better starters

Position by position: Valparaiso 0, Purdue 3, even 2
ValparaisoBetterPurdue
G R. Chaney10.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 62
PURSmall
G C. Cox8.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82
G B. Alocen TR6.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 34
PURBig
G G. Harris4.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
G J. McNair7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 65
Even
G J. Benter4.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
F J. Pettigrew12.6 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 70
Even
G O. Mayer5.5 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
F C. Hopoi3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23
PURBig
C D. Jacobsen5.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 88
ValparaisoBetterPurdue
VAL offense199th of 366 · -6.1
PURBig
PUR defense18th of 366 · +6.0
VAL defense170th of 366 · -3.9
PURBig
PUR offense38th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
PURBig
Backcourt+2.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 2 players
PURSmall
Frontcourt+1.8 · 1 player
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
Even
Bench-0.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestVAL betterPUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Valparaiso
Guards
R. Chaney29 minB. Alocen22 min · TRJ. McNair18 minS. Servilus10 minN. Lombardi1 minC. Webster1 min
Forwards
J. Pettigrew28 minC. Hopoi15 minK. WalkerNewG. RichardsonNewH. ScrogginsNew
Centers
K. Yu8 min · TR
Purdue
Guards
C. Cox24 minG. Harris16 minJ. Benter15 minO. Mayer14 minJ. Rayl2 minJ. Lusk2 min
Forwards
S. KingNewC. PierceNewE. ShahrvinNewR. BurgessNewR. KnightNew
Centers
D. Jacobsen13 minS. HuanNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
VALPUR
Scoring
71.2 #263Points per game81.6 #35
1.06 #233Points per possession1.25 #2
67.4 #258Pace (possessions)65.4 #333
Shooting
47.6 #322Effective FG%57.6 #10
33.9 #1803-point %38.3 #11
36.8 #2343-point attempt rate40.2 #164
39.1 #79Free throw rate28.6 #336
Possessions
15.7 #116Turnover rate13.7 #16
32.5 #110Offensive rebound rate36.4 #19
11.7 #307Assists per game19.6 #2
Defense
71.9 #103Points allowed70.5 #65
1.06 #116Points allowed per possession1.08 #162
50.5 #130Opponent effective FG%52.4 #232
32.1 #70Opponent 3-point %34.1 #192
16.9 #161Turnovers forced15.3 #263
69.9 #167Defensive rebound rate72.9 #39
5.9 #245Steals per game5.5 #297
3.6 #124Blocks per game2.8 #257
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Valparaiso

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Bradley84–90
  • Wvs Indiana St63–62
  • L@ Evansville79–80
  • Wvs Drake74–71
  • W@ UIC71–67

A week or more of rest.

Purdue

30-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona64–79
  • Wvs Texas79–77
  • Wvs Miami79–69
  • Wvs Queens University Royals104–71
  • Wvs Michigan80–72

A week or more of rest.