South Carolina State Bulldogs at South Carolina Upstate Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 6:30 PM ETG.B. Hodge Center · at SC Upstate

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SC State and SC Upstate
SCST	This season	UPST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UPST 78–69 · win probability UPST 78%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UPST has more of the edges

SCST 2, UPST 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SCSTBig

Three-pointers

SCST hits 34.0% and allows 33.5%; UPST hits 31.4% and allows 35.6%. Threes are 33.3% and 35.6% of their shots

UPSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SCST 46.8 and allows 53.9; UPST 48.3 and allows 51.0

UPSTSmall

UPST offense vs SCST defense

Offense 299th of 366 against a defense 351st, on the model’s ratings

UPSTSmall

Home court

UPST at home. This season: UPST 0-0 at home, SCST 0-0 away

SCSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SCST 34%, UPST 9%. Transfers in: SCST 1, UPST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

SCST has played the 317th-hardest schedule, UPST the 281st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SCST 31.4%, UPST 29.2%. Defensive: SCST 62.4%, UPST 68.6%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SCST 20.8%, UPST 18.1%. Forced: SCST 18.8%, UPST 16.5%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SCST 41.0, UPST 32.8. Allowed: SCST 51.9, UPST 36.0

Even

SCST offense vs UPST defense

Offense 341st of 366 against a defense 338th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: SCST plays 70.3 a game (102nd fastest), UPST 70.5 (97th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UPST -8.8	—
Total	—	146.9	—
Projected score	—	SCST 69.1 · UPST 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UPST -5.1	—
1H total	68.7	—
1H projected score	SCST 31.8 · UPST 36.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SCST LWWWL	13-17	43%	7-12	—
UPST WWLLL	13-16	45%	6-6	—

Venue/role: SCST away; UPST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SCST UUOOU	15-15	50%	8-22
UPST UOUUU	14-15	48%	10-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SCST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UPST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ CHST	W78–55WU
Nov 11	@ ND	No recent meeting
Nov 15	@ COFC	L61–88LU

SC Upstate

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ CCU	W85–78WO
Nov 14	@ CAM	L66–78LO
Nov 18	vs SAM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SCST 1–3 UPSTUPST leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · SCST 3-0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 16, 2025-26	UPST 78 @ SCST 72	SCST +10.5	SCST W
Dec 18, 2024-25	SCST 85 @ UPST 70	UPST +2.5	SCST W
Dec 10, 2022-23	SCST 84 @ UPST 89	UPST -6.5	SCST W
Nov 23, 2021-22	UPST 82 @ SCST 78	SCST +4	P

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC State

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U U U U U O O O U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 23	@SDAK	L 81-82	+15.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 25	@MIZ	L 66-98	+34.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 29	@WIN	L 79-101	+20.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 5	@BCU	L 59-80	+13.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 8	@CHSO	L 44-84	+12.5	L −27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 12	@QUC	L 78-102	+18.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 16	vsUPST	L 72-78	+10.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@SC	L 70-95	+31.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	@TENN	L 54-105	+44.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsHOW	W 58-57	+8.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 115
Jan 10	@MORG	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	@COPP	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsNORF	L 82-89	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 26	vsDSU	W 70-64	-1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 134
Feb 4	vsUMES	W 63-54	+3.5	W +12.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 7	@HOW	L 57-85	+14.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 16	vsCOPP	L 57-59	-4.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 18	vsNCCU	W 85-72	+2.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NORF	L 71-90	+10.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 25	vsMORG	L 83-90	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 173
Feb 28	@UMES	L 57-69	+5.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 126
Mar 2	@DSU	W 61-59	+3.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NCCU	W 80-64	+7.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 12	vsNORF	W 88-82	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsHOW	L 61-78	+15.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+14.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+2.5

WIN

L 79-101

−1.5

BCU

L 59-80

−7.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−27.5

QUC

L 78-102

−5.5

UPST

L 72-78

+4.5

L 70-95

+6.5

TENN

L 54-105

−6.5

HOW

W 58-57

+9.5

MORG

L 67-72

−0.5

COPP

W 74-72

+3.5

NORF

L 82-89

−1.5

DSU

W 70-64

+4.5

UMES

W 63-54

+12.5

HOW

L 57-85

−13.5

COPP

L 57-59

−6.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+15.5

NORF

L 71-90

−8.5

MORG

L 83-90

−5.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

+5.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+23.5

NORF

W 88-82

+13.5

HOW

L 61-78

−1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+2.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+3.5

WIN

L 79-101

+22.5

BCU

L 59-80

−9.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−28.5

QUC

L 78-102

+22.5

UPST

L 72-78

+2.5

L 70-95

+15.5

TENN

L 54-105

+11.5

HOW

W 58-57

−29.5

MORG

L 67-72

−8.5

COPP

W 74-72

+5.5

NORF

L 82-89

+31.5

DSU

W 70-64

−1.5

UMES

W 63-54

−16.5

HOW

L 57-85

+0.5

COPP

L 57-59

−22.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+20.5

NORF

L 71-90

+20.5

MORG

L 83-90

+19.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

−14.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+3.5

NORF

W 88-82

+25.5

HOW

L 61-78

−6.5

over 15under 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

SC Upstate

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

L W L L L W L W W L W L L L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W L W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

O U U O U O U O U U O U U O U O O O U U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CBU	L 75-87	+14.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 5	@FRES	W 67-66	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 15	@UNCW	L 60-73	+14.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 19	vsTNTC	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 21	@WGA	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsNCCU	W 82-67	-7.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 149
Nov 29	@NEB	L 63-72	+25.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsCCU	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsWCU	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Dec 13	@UNC	L 62-80	+29.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	@SCST	W 78-72	-10.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 20	@YSU	L 65-74	+6.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 31	vsRAD	L 69-76	-1.5	L −8.5	158.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PRES	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsWIN	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	@CHSO	W 86-81	+6.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 167
Jan 17	@HPU	L 69-89	+16.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsUNCA	L 69-83	-1.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 23	@GWEB	L 65-67	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	vsLONG	W 65-60	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 125
Feb 4	@UNCA	L 67-76	+6.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 143
Feb 7	vsCHSO	W 100-94	+1.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 194
Feb 12	vsHPU	L 70-95	+14.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 165
Feb 14	@LONG	L 75-82	+6.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@WIN	L 64-68	+13.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsPRES	W 76-74	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	@RAD	L 59-71	+7.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 130
Feb 28	vsGWEB	W 71-61	-11.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsGWEB	L 64-65	-10.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+2.5

FRES

W 67-66

+10.5

UNCW

L 60-73

+1.5

TNTC

L 84-88

−6.5

WGA

L 64-72

−5.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+7.5

NEB

L 63-72

+16.5

CCU

W 85-78

+4.5

WCU

W 78-67

+8.5

UNC

L 62-80

+11.5

SCST

W 78-72

−4.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−8.5

PRES

L 77-86

−7.5

WIN

L 50-71

−15.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

−3.5

UNCA

L 69-83

−15.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−11.5

LONG

W 65-60

+6.5

UNCA

L 67-76

−2.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+7.5

HPU

L 70-95

−10.5

LONG

L 75-82

−0.5

WIN

L 64-68

+9.5

PRES

W 76-74

+3.5

RAD

L 59-71

−4.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−1.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−11.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+9.5

FRES

W 67-66

−31.5

UNCW

L 60-73

−22.5

TNTC

L 84-88

+21.5

WGA

L 64-72

−17.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+0.5

NEB

L 63-72

−22.5

CCU

W 85-78

+18.5

WCU

W 78-67

−4.5

UNC

L 62-80

−9.5

SCST

W 78-72

+2.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−13.5

PRES

L 77-86

+25.5

WIN

L 50-71

−36.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

+5.5

UNCA

L 69-83

+6.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−21.5

LONG

W 65-60

−22.5

UNCA

L 67-76

+3.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+43.5

HPU

L 70-95

+10.5

LONG

L 75-82

+9.5

WIN

L 64-68

−26.5

PRES

W 76-74

+8.5

RAD

L 59-71

−22.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−14.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−14.5

over 14under 15avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SC Upstate has the better starters

Position by position: SC State 0, SC Upstate 1, even 4

SC StateBetterSC Upstate

G D. Jackson TR6.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 24

No call

G C. Rich0 pts · 0 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

G N. Treadwell9.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 25

UPSTSmall

F M. Webb TR9.9 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 56

F D. Hodge2.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 1

No call

F D. Tubek TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

F C. Parker6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53

No call

F Z. Johnson TR0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

F T. Tindal2.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 12

Even

C C. Collier1.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 10

SC StateBetterSC Upstate

SCST offense341st of 366 · -11.6

Even

UPST defense338th of 366 · -8.9

SCST defense351st of 366 · -9.8

Even

UPST offense299th of 366 · -9.2

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

UPSTBig

Backcourt-0.1 · 1 player

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

UPSTSmall

Frontcourt-2.0 · 4 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestSCST betterUPST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SC State

Guards

D. Jackson23 min · TRN. Treadwell23 minB. JacksonNewM. TaylorNewB. HarrisNewC. BarnesNew

Forwards

D. Hodge18 minC. Parker18 minT. Tindal10 minJ. PrettyNewB. AdamsNewA. NGomabieNew

SC Upstate

Guards

C. Rich5 minA. Allen-JohnsonNewW. TessemaNewR. NaugleNewJ. PattersonNewN. MvulaNew

Forwards

M. Webb27 min · TRD. Tubek7 min · TRZ. Johnson2 min · TRK. PayneNewD. EdmondNewA. PerottiNew

Centers

C. Collier14 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SCST67.4 #325

UPST71.0 #265

Points per possession

SCST0.96 #353

UPST1.00 #324

Pace (possessions)

SCST70.3 #102

UPST70.5 #97

Shooting

Effective FG%

SCST46.8 #341

UPST48.3 #307

3-point %

SCST34.0 #173

UPST31.4 #308

3-point attempt rate

SCST33.3 #312

UPST35.6 #256

Free throw rate

SCST41.0 #47

UPST32.8 #239

Possessions

Turnover rate

SCST20.8 #355

UPST18.1 #274

Offensive rebound rate

SCST31.4 #146

UPST29.2 #231

Assists per game

SCST12.1 #281

UPST11.7 #304

Defense

Points allowed

SCST80.6 #327

UPST75.7 #210

Points allowed per possession

SCST1.15 #318

UPST1.08 #170

Opponent effective FG%

SCST53.9 #296

UPST51.0 #156

Opponent 3-point %

SCST33.5 #155

UPST35.6 #289

Turnovers forced

SCST18.8 #59

UPST16.5 #185

Defensive rebound rate

SCST62.4 #362

UPST68.6 #224

Steals per game

SCST6.9 #137

UPST6.1 #220

Blocks per game

SCST3.8 #98

UPST4.7 #24

SCST		UPST
Scoring
67.4 #325	Points per game	71.0 #265
0.96 #353	Points per possession	1.00 #324
70.3 #102	Pace (possessions)	70.5 #97
Shooting
46.8 #341	Effective FG%	48.3 #307
34.0 #173	3-point %	31.4 #308
33.3 #312	3-point attempt rate	35.6 #256
41.0 #47	Free throw rate	32.8 #239
Possessions
20.8 #355	Turnover rate	18.1 #274
31.4 #146	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #231
12.1 #281	Assists per game	11.7 #304
Defense
80.6 #327	Points allowed	75.7 #210
1.15 #318	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #170
53.9 #296	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #156
33.5 #155	Opponent 3-point %	35.6 #289
18.8 #59	Turnovers forced	16.5 #185
62.4 #362	Defensive rebound rate	68.6 #224
6.9 #137	Steals per game	6.1 #220
3.8 #98	Blocks per game	4.7 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SC State

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-8 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard61–78
Wvs Norfolk St88–82
W@ NC Central80–64
W@ Delaware St61–59
L@ MD Eastern57–69

A week or more of rest.

SC Upstate

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gardner-Webb64–65
Wvs Gardner-Webb71–61
L@ Radford59–71
Wvs Presbyterian76–74
L@ Winthrop64–68

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina State Bulldogs at South Carolina Upstate Spartans

What could decide it: UPST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SC State

SC Upstate

SC Upstate has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SC State

SC Upstate