South Carolina Upstate Spartans at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 7:00 PM ETThe HTC Center · at Coastal

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SC Upstate and Coastal
UPST	This season	CCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CCU 76–70 · win probability CCU 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CCU has more of the edges

UPST 0, CCU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CCUBig

Three-pointers

UPST hits 31.4% and allows 35.6%; CCU hits 33.5% and allows 32.8%. Threes are 35.6% and 43.1% of their shots

CCUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UPST 48.3 and allows 51.0; CCU 47.9 and allows 46.8

CCUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UPST 29.2%, CCU 26.9%. Defensive: UPST 68.6%, CCU 72.4%

CCUSmall

UPST offense vs CCU defense

Offense 299th of 366 against a defense 246th, on the model’s ratings

CCUSmall

Home court

CCU at home. This season: CCU 0-0 at home, UPST 0-0 away

Even

CCU offense vs UPST defense

Offense 295th of 366 against a defense 338th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UPST 9%, CCU 21%. Transfers in: UPST 3, CCU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

UPST has played the 281st-hardest schedule, CCU the 301st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: UPST plays 70.5 a game (97th fastest), CCU 69.9 (121st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UPST 32.8, CCU 32.3. Allowed: UPST 36.0, CCU 34.9

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UPST 18.1%, CCU 15.3%. Forced: UPST 16.5%, CCU 12.3%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CCU -5.9	—
Total	—	146.0	—
Projected score	—	UPST 70.1 · CCU 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CCU -3.4	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	UPST 32.5 · CCU 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UPST WWLLL	13-16	45%	7-9	—
CCU LWWWL	18-13	58%	7-5	—

Venue/role: UPST away; CCU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UPST UOUUU	14-15	48%	10-19
CCU UOOUO	17-14	55%	18-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UPST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
CCU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SC Upstate

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ CAM	L66–78LO
Nov 18	vs SAM	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ UNCG	No recent meeting

Coastal

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ WIS	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ TENN	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs CAM	W58–57WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UPST 2–2 CCUSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · UPST 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	CCU 78 @ UPST 85	UPST -2.5	UPST W
Nov 30, 2024-25	UPST 51 @ CCU 73	CCU -6.5	CCU W
Nov 29, 2023-24	UPST 70 @ CCU 72	CCU -1.5	CCU W
Nov 18, 2022-23	CCU 78 @ UPST 79	UPST +4.5	UPST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC Upstate

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

L W L L L W L W W L W L L L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W L W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

O U U O U O U O U U O U U O U O O O U U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CBU	L 75-87	+14.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 5	@FRES	W 67-66	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 15	@UNCW	L 60-73	+14.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 19	vsTNTC	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 21	@WGA	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsNCCU	W 82-67	-7.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 149
Nov 29	@NEB	L 63-72	+25.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsCCU	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsWCU	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Dec 13	@UNC	L 62-80	+29.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	@SCST	W 78-72	-10.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 20	@YSU	L 65-74	+6.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 31	vsRAD	L 69-76	-1.5	L −8.5	158.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PRES	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsWIN	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	@CHSO	W 86-81	+6.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 167
Jan 17	@HPU	L 69-89	+16.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsUNCA	L 69-83	-1.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 23	@GWEB	L 65-67	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	vsLONG	W 65-60	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 125
Feb 4	@UNCA	L 67-76	+6.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 143
Feb 7	vsCHSO	W 100-94	+1.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 194
Feb 12	vsHPU	L 70-95	+14.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 165
Feb 14	@LONG	L 75-82	+6.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@WIN	L 64-68	+13.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsPRES	W 76-74	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	@RAD	L 59-71	+7.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 130
Feb 28	vsGWEB	W 71-61	-11.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsGWEB	L 64-65	-10.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+2.5

FRES

W 67-66

+10.5

UNCW

L 60-73

+1.5

TNTC

L 84-88

−6.5

WGA

L 64-72

−5.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+7.5

NEB

L 63-72

+16.5

CCU

W 85-78

+4.5

WCU

W 78-67

+8.5

UNC

L 62-80

+11.5

SCST

W 78-72

−4.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−8.5

PRES

L 77-86

−7.5

WIN

L 50-71

−15.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

−3.5

UNCA

L 69-83

−15.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−11.5

LONG

W 65-60

+6.5

UNCA

L 67-76

−2.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+7.5

HPU

L 70-95

−10.5

LONG

L 75-82

−0.5

WIN

L 64-68

+9.5

PRES

W 76-74

+3.5

RAD

L 59-71

−4.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−1.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−11.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+9.5

FRES

W 67-66

−31.5

UNCW

L 60-73

−22.5

TNTC

L 84-88

+21.5

WGA

L 64-72

−17.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+0.5

NEB

L 63-72

−22.5

CCU

W 85-78

+18.5

WCU

W 78-67

−4.5

UNC

L 62-80

−9.5

SCST

W 78-72

+2.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−13.5

PRES

L 77-86

+25.5

WIN

L 50-71

−36.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

+5.5

UNCA

L 69-83

+6.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−21.5

LONG

W 65-60

−22.5

UNCA

L 67-76

+3.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+43.5

HPU

L 70-95

+10.5

LONG

L 75-82

+9.5

WIN

L 64-68

−26.5

PRES

W 76-74

+8.5

RAD

L 59-71

−22.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−14.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−14.5

over 14under 15avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Coastal

31 games played

Straight up

18-13

58% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1358%

L W L W W L W L W L L W W L L L W W W W W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

L W W W W L L L W L L W W L L L W W W W W L L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O O U U U O O U U O U O O U U O U O O U O U O O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WMU	L 71-76	+2.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 11	vsWIN	W 72-66	+2.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 14	@JXST	L 67-74	+7.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 21	@WIU	W 84-64	-3.5	W +16.5	138.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsUND	W 75-58	-3.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 23	@ILST	L 42-94	+12.5	L −39.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 30	vsAAMU	W 67-60	-7.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 3	@UPST	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	@WIN	W 88-84	+16.5	W +20.5	153.5	O 172
Dec 13	@GCU	L 61-82	+17.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Dec 18	@APP	L 49-67	+4.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ODU	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@JOES	W 68-62	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 1	vsGASO	L 81-82	-1.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsGAST	L 71-89	-6.5	L −24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsODU	L 66-70	-4.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 10	vsAPP	W 67-62	+1.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 129
Jan 14	@MRSH	W 85-83	+9.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 168
Jan 17	@GASO	W 79-75	+6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 154
Jan 22	vsTXST	W 72-70	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 142
Jan 24	vsUSM	W 85-67	-2.5	W +15.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 29	@USA	L 48-53	+3.5	L −1.5	139.5	U 101
Feb 1	@ULM	W 83-79	-10.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 162
Feb 4	vsARST	L 66-70	+4.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsMASS	W 94-91	+2.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 185
Feb 12	@UL	W 69-65	-1.5	W +2.5	132.5	O 134
Feb 18	vsJMU	L 65-67	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsMRSH	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 154
Feb 24	@GAST	W 76-71	-1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	@JMU	W 69-68	+6.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsGASO	L 72-96	-1.5	L −25.5	151.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WMU

L 71-76

−2.5

WIN

W 72-66

+8.5

JXST

L 67-74

+0.5

WIU

W 84-64

+16.5

UND

W 75-58

+13.5

ILST

L 42-94

−39.5

AAMU

W 67-60

−0.5

UPST

L 78-85

−4.5

WIN

W 88-84

+20.5

GCU

L 61-82

−3.5

APP

L 49-67

−13.5

ODU

W 76-74

+5.5

JOES

W 68-62

+13.5

GASO

L 81-82

−2.5

GAST

L 71-89

−24.5

ODU

L 66-70

−8.5

APP

W 67-62

+6.5

MRSH

W 85-83

+11.5

GASO

W 79-75

+10.5

TXST

W 72-70

+0.5

USM

W 85-67

+15.5

USA

L 48-53

−1.5

ULM

W 83-79

−6.5

ARST

L 66-70

+0.5

MASS

W 94-91

+5.5

W 69-65

+2.5

JMU

L 65-67

−0.5

MRSH

W 79-75

+6.5

GAST

W 76-71

+3.5

JMU

W 69-68

+7.5

GASO

L 72-96

−25.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WMU

L 71-76

+0.5

WIN

W 72-66

−27.5

JXST

L 67-74

+1.5

WIU

W 84-64

+9.5

UND

W 75-58

−14.5

ILST

L 42-94

−10.5

AAMU

W 67-60

−13.5

UPST

L 78-85

+18.5

WIN

W 88-84

+18.5

GCU

L 61-82

−0.5

APP

L 49-67

−21.5

ODU

W 76-74

+2.5

JOES

W 68-62

−14.5

GASO

L 81-82

+5.5

GAST

L 71-89

+11.5

ODU

L 66-70

−15.5

APP

W 67-62

−4.5

MRSH

W 85-83

+16.5

GASO

W 79-75

−3.5

TXST

W 72-70

+1.5

USM

W 85-67

+10.5

USA

L 48-53

−38.5

ULM

W 83-79

+15.5

ARST

L 66-70

−15.5

MASS

W 94-91

+37.5

W 69-65

+1.5

JMU

L 65-67

−8.5

MRSH

W 79-75

+0.5

GAST

W 76-71

+5.5

JMU

W 69-68

−4.5

GASO

L 72-96

+16.5

over 17under 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: SC Upstate 1, Coastal 1, even 3

SC UpstateBetterCoastal

G C. Rich0 pts · 0 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Thompson3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 15

F M. Webb TR9.9 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 56

UPSTSmall

G D. Washington TR4.5 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 25

F D. Tubek TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Perry TR4.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F Z. Johnson TR0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Craig4.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 31

C C. Collier1.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 10

CCUSmall

F A. Hardaway TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 44

SC UpstateBetterCoastal

UPST offense299th of 366 · -9.2

Even

CCU defense246th of 366 · -6.5

UPST defense338th of 366 · -8.9

Even

CCU offense295th of 366 · -9.1

Backcourt-0.1 · 1 player

UPSTBig

Backcourt-4.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 4 players

CCUSmall

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestUPST betterCCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SC Upstate

Guards

C. Rich5 minA. Allen-JohnsonNewW. TessemaNewR. NaugleNewJ. PattersonNewN. MvulaNew

Forwards

M. Webb27 min · TRD. Tubek7 min · TRZ. Johnson2 min · TRK. PayneNewD. EdmondNewA. PerottiNew

Centers

C. Collier14 min

Coastal

Guards

T. Thompson20 minD. Washington15 min · TRT. Perry13 min · TRD. Craig12 minJ. Cross6 min · TRJ. AlstonNew

Forwards

A. Hardaway20 min · TRD. Green11 minD. Fuquay8 min · TRF. BighamNewJ. BuzzardNew

Centers

C. Middleton10 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UPST71.0 #265

CCU71.8 #251

Points per possession

UPST1.00 #324

CCU1.03 #290

Pace (possessions)

UPST70.5 #97

CCU69.9 #121

Shooting

Effective FG%

UPST48.3 #307

CCU47.9 #314

3-point %

UPST31.4 #308

CCU33.5 #196

3-point attempt rate

UPST35.6 #256

CCU43.1 #113

Free throw rate

UPST32.8 #239

CCU32.3 #254

Possessions

Turnover rate

UPST18.1 #274

CCU15.3 #84

Offensive rebound rate

UPST29.2 #231

CCU26.9 #296

Assists per game

UPST11.7 #304

CCU9.9 #359

Defense

Points allowed

UPST75.7 #210

CCU73.5 #143

Points allowed per possession

UPST1.08 #170

CCU1.05 #88

Opponent effective FG%

UPST51.0 #156

CCU46.8 #18

Opponent 3-point %

UPST35.6 #289

CCU32.8 #105

Turnovers forced

UPST16.5 #185

CCU12.3 #364

Defensive rebound rate

UPST68.6 #224

CCU72.4 #52

Steals per game

UPST6.1 #220

CCU4.3 #360

Blocks per game

UPST4.7 #24

CCU3.2 #187

UPST		CCU
Scoring
71.0 #265	Points per game	71.8 #251
1.00 #324	Points per possession	1.03 #290
70.5 #97	Pace (possessions)	69.9 #121
Shooting
48.3 #307	Effective FG%	47.9 #314
31.4 #308	3-point %	33.5 #196
35.6 #256	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #113
32.8 #239	Free throw rate	32.3 #254
Possessions
18.1 #274	Turnover rate	15.3 #84
29.2 #231	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #296
11.7 #304	Assists per game	9.9 #359
Defense
75.7 #210	Points allowed	73.5 #143
1.08 #170	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #88
51.0 #156	Opponent effective FG%	46.8 #18
35.6 #289	Opponent 3-point %	32.8 #105
16.5 #185	Turnovers forced	12.3 #364
68.6 #224	Defensive rebound rate	72.4 #52
6.1 #220	Steals per game	4.3 #360
4.7 #24	Blocks per game	3.2 #187

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SC Upstate

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gardner-Webb64–65
Wvs Gardner-Webb71–61
L@ Radford59–71
Wvs Presbyterian76–74
L@ Winthrop64–68

A week or more of rest.

Coastal

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs GA Southern72–96
W@ James Madison69–68
W@ Georgia St76–71
Wvs Marshall79–75
Lvs James Madison65–67

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina Upstate Spartans at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

What could decide it: CCU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SC Upstate

Coastal

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SC Upstate

Coastal