Eastern Illinois Panthers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 7:00 PM ETPurcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: E Illinois and Notre Dame
EIU	This season	ND
0-0	Record	1-0
0-0	ATS	1-0
0-0	O/U	1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ND 87–57 · win probability ND 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 143.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ND has more of the edges

EIU 1, ND 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NDBig

EIU offense vs ND defense

Offense 360th of 366 against a defense 63rd, on the model’s ratings

NDBig

ND offense vs EIU defense

Offense 76th of 366 against a defense 332nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

EIU has played the 314th-hardest schedule, ND the 69th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NDBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: EIU 28.2%, ND 31.2%. Defensive: EIU 64.8%, ND 73.3%

EIUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: EIU 18.6%, ND 16.9%. Forced: EIU 19.3%, ND 14.0%

NDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: EIU 45.7 and allows 50.8; ND 52.3 and allows 51.8

NDSmall

Three-pointers

EIU hits 31.7% and allows 31.7%; ND hits 35.6% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 29.9% and 43.5% of their shots

NDSmall

Home court

ND at home. This season: ND 0-0 at home, EIU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: EIU 22%, ND 38%. Transfers in: EIU 0, ND 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: EIU plays 67.0 a game (280th fastest), ND 67.7 (239th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: EIU 33.5, ND 34.1. Allowed: EIU 35.3, ND 36.2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ND -29.1	—
Total	—	143.8	—
Projected score	—	EIU 57.3 · ND 86.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ND -17.2	—
1H total	67.3	—
1H projected score	EIU 25.1 · ND 42.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EIU LWLWW	17-13	57%	9-7	—
ND LLWLL	15-16	48%	8-9	—

Venue/role: EIU away; ND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EIU OUUOO	14-16	47%	10-20
ND OOOOO	22-9	71%	13-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EIU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ND	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

E Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs PFW	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ VAN	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ ILL	L67–112LO

Notre Dame

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs SCST	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs FLA	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs CMU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

EIU 0–1 NDND leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · EIU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2025-26	EIU 58 @ ND 78	ND -23.5	EIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Illinois

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L W L L L L L L L W L L W W W L W L L L L W L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W W W L L L W L W W W W W W L L W L L L W W L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U O O O O U U O U U U U U O U O O U U U O O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@VAL	L 63-66	+5.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	vsNICH	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 11	@ND	L 58-78	+23.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 14	@UK	L 53-99	+35.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 25	@CARK	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 28	@PUR	L 62-109	+40.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 171
Dec 6	vsLIN	L 74-82	+8.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsEKU	L 59-68	+6.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 127
Dec 14	@ISU	L 53-78	+43.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 18	vsSIUE	W 76-72	+6.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 148
Jan 1	@SEMO	L 59-68	+12.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	@UTM	L 61-65	+10.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 126
Jan 8	vsTNTC	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 10	vsTNST	W 74-70	+3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 13	vsWIU	W 57-55	-6.5	L −4.5	132.5	U 112
Jan 15	@LR	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 22	@USI	W 59-51	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 24	@MORE	L 68-73	+4.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 141
Jan 29	vsUTM	L 68-76	+3.5	L −4.5	129.5	O 144
Jan 31	vsSEMO	L 59-77	+4.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 136
Feb 5	@TNST	L 68-77	+9.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 7	@TNTC	W 60-54	+4.5	W +10.5	140.5	U 114
Feb 10	@WIU	L 70-79	-4.5	L −13.5	133.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsLR	W 78-72	+2.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 150
Feb 19	vsMORE	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 143
Feb 21	vsUSI	L 68-70	-4.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 26	@LIN	W 71-67	+7.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@SIUE	L 50-77	+5.5	L −21.5	129.5	U 127
Mar 4	vsSIUE	W 77-71	+3.5	W +9.5	128.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsUTM	L 63-66	+7.5	W +4.5	126.5	O 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

+2.5

NICH

W 65-57

+10.5

L 58-78

+3.5

L 53-99

−10.5

CARK

L 60-81

−15.5

PUR

L 62-109

−6.5

LIN

L 74-82

+0.5

EKU

L 59-68

−2.5

ISU

L 53-78

+18.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+10.5

SEMO

L 59-68

+3.5

UTM

L 61-65

+6.5

TNTC

W 71-61

+11.5

TNST

W 74-70

+7.5

WIU

W 57-55

−4.5

L 63-74

−4.5

USI

W 59-51

+10.5

L 68-73

−0.5

UTM

L 68-76

−4.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−13.5

TNST

L 68-77

+0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

+10.5

WIU

L 70-79

−13.5

W 78-72

+8.5

L 70-73

−1.5

USI

L 68-70

−6.5

LIN

W 71-67

+11.5

SIUE

L 50-77

−21.5

SIUE

W 77-71

+9.5

UTM

L 63-66

+4.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

−15.5

NICH

W 65-57

−13.5

L 58-78

−7.5

L 53-99

+4.5

CARK

L 60-81

+1.5

PUR

L 62-109

+29.5

LIN

L 74-82

+10.5

EKU

L 59-68

−22.5

ISU

L 53-78

−13.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+13.5

SEMO

L 59-68

−19.5

UTM

L 61-65

−7.5

TNTC

W 71-61

−8.5

TNST

W 74-70

−0.5

WIU

W 57-55

−20.5

L 63-74

+3.5

USI

W 59-51

−25.5

L 68-73

+6.5

UTM

L 68-76

+14.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−2.5

TNST

L 68-77

−0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

−26.5

WIU

L 70-79

+15.5

W 78-72

+15.5

L 70-73

+5.5

USI

L 68-70

+2.5

LIN

W 71-67

−6.5

SIUE

L 50-77

−2.5

SIUE

W 77-71

+19.5

UTM

L 63-66

+2.5

over 14under 16avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Notre Dame

31 games played

Straight up

13-18

42% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-9

71% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1842%

W W W L W L W L W W W W L W L L L L L W L L L L L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

W W L W L L L W W W W W L W W L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

22-971%

O O U U O U U U O O O O U U O O O O O U O O U O O O O O O O O

8 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIU	W 89-67	-15.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 7	vsDETM	W 102-70	-21.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsEIU	W 78-58	-23.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 16	@OSU	L 63-64	+9.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 127
Nov 19	vsBELL	W 86-79	-24.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	vsKU	L 61-71	+5.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 132
Nov 25	vsRUTG	W 68-63	-6.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsHOU	L 56-66	+11.5	W +1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 2	vsMIZ	W 76-71	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 5	@TCU	W 87-85	+6.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 10	vsIDHO	W 80-65	-11.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 145
Dec 13	vsEVAN	W 82-58	-14.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 21	vsPFW	L 69-72	-11.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 141
Dec 30	@STAN	W 47-40	+6.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 87
Jan 2	@CAL	L 71-72	+3.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 10	vsCLEM	L 61-76	+3.5	L −11.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 13	vsMIA	L 69-81	+5.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 17	@VT	L 76-89	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 21	@UNC	L 69-91	+13.5	L −8.5	149.5	O 160
Jan 24	vsBC	W 68-64	-7.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 27	vsUVA	L 97-100	+9.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 197
Jan 31	@SYR	L 72-86	+6.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 4	@LOU	L 65-76	+19.5	W +8.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 7	vsFSU	L 79-82	-1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 10	@SMU	L 81-89	+10.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 170
Feb 14	vsGT	W 89-74	-5.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 21	@PITT	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 24	vsDUKE	L 56-100	+16.5	L −27.5	141.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsNCSU	W 96-90	+6.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 186
Mar 4	vsSTAN	L 78-86	+1.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 164
Mar 7	@BC	L 69-77	-1.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+6.5

DETM

W 102-70

+10.5

EIU

W 78-58

−3.5

OSU

L 63-64

+8.5

BELL

W 86-79

−17.5

L 61-71

−4.5

RUTG

W 68-63

−1.5

HOU

L 56-66

+1.5

MIZ

W 76-71

+6.5

TCU

W 87-85

+8.5

IDHO

W 80-65

+3.5

EVAN

W 82-58

+9.5

PFW

L 69-72

−14.5

STAN

W 47-40

+13.5

CAL

L 71-72

+2.5

CLEM

L 61-76

−11.5

MIA

L 69-81

−6.5

L 76-89

−6.5

UNC

L 69-91

−8.5

W 68-64

−3.5

UVA

L 97-100

+6.5

SYR

L 72-86

−7.5

LOU

L 65-76

+8.5

FSU

L 79-82

−4.5

SMU

L 81-89

+2.5

W 89-74

+9.5

PITT

L 68-73

−1.5

DUKE

L 56-100

−27.5

NCSU

W 96-90

+12.5

STAN

L 78-86

−6.5

L 69-77

−9.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+20.5

DETM

W 102-70

+24.5

EIU

W 78-58

−7.5

OSU

L 63-64

−29.5

BELL

W 86-79

+14.5

L 61-71

−11.5

RUTG

W 68-63

−9.5

HOU

L 56-66

−10.5

MIZ

W 76-71

+0.5

TCU

W 87-85

+30.5

IDHO

W 80-65

+0.5

EVAN

W 82-58

+3.5

PFW

L 69-72

−8.5

STAN

W 47-40

−56.5

CAL

L 71-72

+4.5

CLEM

L 61-76

+3.5

MIA

L 69-81

+6.5

L 76-89

+21.5

UNC

L 69-91

+10.5

W 68-64

−5.5

UVA

L 97-100

+51.5

SYR

L 72-86

+10.5

LOU

L 65-76

−14.5

FSU

L 79-82

+6.5

SMU

L 81-89

+15.5

W 89-74

+12.5

PITT

L 68-73

+0.5

DUKE

L 56-100

+14.5

NCSU

W 96-90

+32.5

STAN

L 78-86

+16.5

L 69-77

+4.5

over 22under 9avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Notre Dame has the better starters

Position by position: E Illinois 0, Notre Dame 2, even 3

E IllinoisBetterNotre Dame

G J. Elder8 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G B. Shrewsberry15 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 73

G M. Blackwell4.4 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 7

NDBig

G E. Roberts TR11 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Score 64

F A. Austin2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 1

NDBig

G B. Smith TR16 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 91

F D. Burton NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G D. Brown TR6.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 43

C T. Vogel NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

C L. Duncomb TR18.2 pts · 8.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 99

E IllinoisBetterNotre Dame

EIU offense360th of 366 · -14.1

NDBig

ND defense63rd of 366 · +1.2

EIU defense332nd of 366 · -8.7

NDBig

ND offense76th of 366 · +1.1

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

NDBig

Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players

NDBig

Frontcourt+7.1 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestEIU betterND betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

E Illinois

Guards

J. Elder17 minM. Blackwell16 minD. DavenportNewJ. MillerNewJ. CallowayNewS. SimsNew

Forwards

A. Austin10 minD. BurtonNewG. WelchNewD. NtambweNewE. HillsmanNew

Centers

T. VogelNew

Notre Dame

Guards

B. Shrewsberry36 minE. Roberts32 min · TRB. Smith31 min · TRD. Brown24 min · TRL. Imes21 minB. Stevens2 min

Forwards

B. Koehler16 minB. Ruglass Dortch15 min · TRY. DialloNewL. DevineNew

Centers

L. Duncomb25 min · TRT. AhnemanNewG. SolongoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

EIU64.6 #351

ND74.5 #180

Points per possession

EIU0.96 #350

ND1.10 #143

Pace (possessions)

EIU67.0 #280

ND67.7 #239

Shooting

Effective FG%

EIU45.7 #353

ND52.3 #133

3-point %

EIU31.7 #292

ND35.6 #82

3-point attempt rate

EIU29.9 #352

ND43.5 #101

Free throw rate

EIU33.5 #224

ND34.1 #206

Possessions

Turnover rate

EIU18.6 #301

ND16.9 #199

Offensive rebound rate

EIU28.2 #256

ND31.2 #155

Assists per game

EIU11.1 #336

ND12.3 #267

Defense

Points allowed

EIU72.2 #111

ND75.3 #197

Points allowed per possession

EIU1.08 #152

ND1.11 #255

Opponent effective FG%

EIU50.8 #146

ND51.8 #200

Opponent 3-point %

EIU31.7 #50

ND33.2 #138

Turnovers forced

EIU19.3 #37

ND14.0 #337

Defensive rebound rate

EIU64.8 #343

ND73.3 #27

Steals per game

EIU7.5 #78

ND4.5 #355

Blocks per game

EIU2.9 #251

ND2.2 #328

EIU		ND
Scoring
64.6 #351	Points per game	74.5 #180
0.96 #350	Points per possession	1.10 #143
67.0 #280	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #239
Shooting
45.7 #353	Effective FG%	52.3 #133
31.7 #292	3-point %	35.6 #82
29.9 #352	3-point attempt rate	43.5 #101
33.5 #224	Free throw rate	34.1 #206
Possessions
18.6 #301	Turnover rate	16.9 #199
28.2 #256	Offensive rebound rate	31.2 #155
11.1 #336	Assists per game	12.3 #267
Defense
72.2 #111	Points allowed	75.3 #197
1.08 #152	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #255
50.8 #146	Opponent effective FG%	51.8 #200
31.7 #50	Opponent 3-point %	33.2 #138
19.3 #37	Turnovers forced	14.0 #337
64.8 #343	Defensive rebound rate	73.3 #27
7.5 #78	Steals per game	4.5 #355
2.9 #251	Blocks per game	2.2 #328

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

E Illinois

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UT Martin63–66
Wvs SIUE77–71
L@ SIUE50–77
W@ Lindenwood Lions71–67
Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles68–70

A week or more of rest.

Notre Dame

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston College69–77
Lvs Stanford78–86
Wvs NC State96–90
Lvs Duke56–100
L@ Pitt68–73

A week or more of rest.

Eastern Illinois Panthers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

What could decide it: ND has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

E Illinois

Notre Dame

Notre Dame has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

E Illinois

Notre Dame