UNC Greensboro Spartans at UIC Flames: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 7:00 PM ETCredit Union 1 Arena · at UIC

#110UICUIC

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UNC Greensboro and UIC
UNCG	This season	UIC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UIC 83–66 · win probability UIC 94%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UIC has more of the edges

UNCG 1, UIC 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UICBig

UIC offense vs UNCG defense

Offense 117th of 366 against a defense 299th, on the model’s ratings

UICBig

UNCG offense vs UIC defense

Offense 260th of 366 against a defense 106th, on the model’s ratings

UICSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNCG 5%, UIC 60%. Transfers in: UNCG 6, UIC 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

UNCG has played the 256th-hardest schedule, UIC the 161st. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNCGSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNCG 42.0, UIC 36.2. Allowed: UNCG 30.6, UIC 33.9

UICSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNCG 15.0%, UIC 17.6%. Forced: UNCG 13.6%, UIC 19.7%

UICSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNCG 52.0 and allows 56.2; UIC 49.8 and allows 50.5

UICSmall

Home court

UIC at home. This season: UIC 0-0 at home, UNCG 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNCG 28.1%, UIC 36.3%. Defensive: UNCG 71.0%, UIC 68.0%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: UNCG plays 69.3 a game (157th fastest), UIC 68.1 (227th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

UNCG hits 35.6% and allows 38.0%; UIC hits 31.6% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 40.2% and 32.8% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UIC -17.3	—
Total	—	149.0	—
Projected score	—	UNCG 65.8 · UIC 83.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UIC -10.2	—
1H total	69.7	—
1H projected score	UNCG 29.7 · UIC 39.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCG WLWWL	13-19	41%	5-8	—
UIC LWWLL	18-15	55%	7-5	—

Venue/role: UNCG away; UIC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCG OOUUO	22-10	69%	13-19
UIC UOUOO	16-17	48%	17-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCG	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
UIC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UNC Greensboro

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ COR	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ GWEB	No recent meeting
Nov 21	vs UPST	No recent meeting

UIC

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ SMC	No recent meeting
Nov 18	vs CHST	W67–63LU
Nov 22	vs M-OH	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNCG 1–0 UICUNCG leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UNCG 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 26, 2023-24	UIC 57 vs UNCG 58	UNCG -2.5	UIC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNC Greensboro

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-10

69% overs · avg +8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W L L L W W W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

L L L L W W L L L W L W W L L L L W L L L W W W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1069%

O O O U O U U O O O U O O O U U O O O O U O U O O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@KSU	L 64-93	+18.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsELON	L 90-92	-4.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 182
Nov 12	@NCSU	L 64-110	+30.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsAPSU	L 63-69	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 20	@QUC	L 94-101	+7.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	vsYSU	W 68-62	+5.5	W +11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsDEL	L 60-73	-1.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsM-OH	L 71-82	+10.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 2	vsUNCA	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 159
Dec 6	@ECU	W 82-78	+7.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 160
Dec 16	vsNCAT	L 65-71	-6.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 1	vsUTC	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsSAM	W 89-82	+2.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 7	@WOF	L 85-97	+7.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 182
Jan 10	@ETSU	L 60-86	+11.5	L −14.5	148.5	U 146
Jan 15	vsCIT	W 69-66	-9.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 135
Jan 17	vsMER	L 92-102	+5.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 194
Jan 21	@VMI	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 23	vsFUR	L 66-89	+4.5	L −18.5	150.5	O 155
Jan 29	@MER	L 77-95	+10.5	L −7.5	158.5	O 172
Jan 31	@CIT	L 66-71	-2.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 4	vsWCU	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 159
Feb 8	@FUR	W 67-64	+10.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsVMI	W 92-71	-8.5	W +12.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsWOF	W 99-89	+2.5	W +12.5	154.5	O 188
Feb 18	@WCU	L 77-91	+5.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 21	vsETSU	L 75-87	+6.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 26	@UTC	W 85-80	+4.5	W +9.5	157.5	O 165
Feb 28	@SAM	L 78-87	+8.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsVMI	W 84-70	-7.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 154
Mar 7	vsWOF	W 75-72	+4.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 147
Mar 8	vsFUR	L 75-81	+5.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

−10.5

ELON

L 90-92

−6.5

NCSU

L 64-110

−15.5

APSU

L 63-69

−7.5

QUC

L 94-101

+0.5

YSU

W 68-62

+11.5

DEL

L 60-73

−14.5

M-OH

L 71-82

−0.5

UNCA

L 77-82

−0.5

ECU

W 82-78

+11.5

NCAT

L 65-71

−12.5

UTC

W 77-72

+7.5

SAM

W 89-82

+9.5

WOF

L 85-97

−4.5

ETSU

L 60-86

−14.5

CIT

W 69-66

−6.5

MER

L 92-102

−4.5

VMI

W 85-78

+4.5

FUR

L 66-89

−18.5

MER

L 77-95

−7.5

CIT

L 66-71

−7.5

WCU

W 81-78

+4.5

FUR

W 67-64

+13.5

VMI

W 92-71

+12.5

WOF

W 99-89

+12.5

WCU

L 77-91

−8.5

ETSU

L 75-87

−5.5

UTC

W 85-80

+9.5

SAM

L 78-87

−0.5

VMI

W 84-70

+6.5

WOF

W 75-72

+7.5

FUR

L 75-81

−0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

+8.5

ELON

L 90-92

+39.5

NCSU

L 64-110

+20.5

APSU

L 63-69

−13.5

QUC

L 94-101

+44.5

YSU

W 68-62

−22.5

DEL

L 60-73

−9.5

M-OH

L 71-82

+2.5

UNCA

L 77-82

+15.5

ECU

W 82-78

+20.5

NCAT

L 65-71

−11.5

UTC

W 77-72

+1.5

SAM

W 89-82

+19.5

WOF

L 85-97

+28.5

ETSU

L 60-86

−2.5

CIT

W 69-66

−13.5

MER

L 92-102

+38.5

VMI

W 85-78

+11.5

FUR

L 66-89

+4.5

MER

L 77-95

+13.5

CIT

L 66-71

−10.5

WCU

W 81-78

+3.5

FUR

W 67-64

−18.5

VMI

W 92-71

+12.5

WOF

W 99-89

+33.5

WCU

L 77-91

+12.5

ETSU

L 75-87

+13.5

UTC

W 85-80

+7.5

SAM

L 78-87

+8.5

VMI

W 84-70

−0.5

WOF

W 75-72

−8.5

FUR

L 75-81

+8.5

over 22under 10avg +8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

UIC

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

18-15

55% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

W L W L W L L L L L L L L W W W W W W W W L L W W W L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1555%

W W L W L L L L W L L W L W W W W W W L W L L W W W L W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1748%

O O U O O O U U O U O U U U U O O U O O U U U O U U U O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDETM	W 91-71	-9.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 162
Nov 7	@ORST	L 73-76	+6.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 149
Nov 15	@CHST	W 67-63	-9.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsHPU	L 80-90	+10.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 170
Nov 22	vsUSI	W 84-73	-11.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 26	@RMU	L 74-88	-1.5	L −15.5	151.5	O 162
Dec 3	vsUAPB	L 62-63	-16.5	L −17.5	163.5	U 125
Dec 7	@YALE	L 66-80	+12.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 146
Dec 13	@BEL	L 84-87	+12.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 171
Dec 17	vsUNI	L 54-60	+5.5	L −0.5	133.5	U 114
Dec 21	@CLT	L 76-88	+1.5	L −10.5	137.5	O 164
Jan 1	vsMUR	L 77-81	+5.5	W +1.5	159.5	U 158
Jan 4	@VAL	L 59-66	+2.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 125
Jan 7	vsSIU	W 70-57	+1.5	W +14.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 10	@ILST	W 63-59	+10.5	W +14.5	141.5	U 122
Jan 13	@UNI	W 69-61	+6.5	W +14.5	128.5	O 130
Jan 17	vsDRKE	W 74-67	-5.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 20	vsEVAN	W 76-49	-8.5	W +18.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 24	@BRAD	W 85-70	+7.5	W +22.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 27	vsINST	W 76-74	-5.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 31	@SIU	W 68-66	+3.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 3	@MUR	L 74-81	+6.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 6	vsBEL	L 62-68	+1.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 130
Feb 12	@DRKE	W 80-70	-1.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 15	vsILST	W 83-56	+1.5	W +28.5	140.5	U 139
Feb 18	@EVAN	W 84-46	-8.5	W +29.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 21	vsVAL	L 67-71	-7.5	L −11.5	138.5	U 138
Feb 24	vsBRAD	W 93-86	-1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 179
Mar 1	@INST	L 63-79	-3.5	L −19.5	144.5	U 142
Mar 6	vsMUR	W 92-79	-1.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 171
Mar 7	vsDRKE	W 72-51	-4.5	W +16.5	144.5	U 123
Mar 8	vsUNI	L 69-84	+2.5	L −12.5	125.5	O 153
Mar 18	@CAL	L 73-91	+6.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DETM

W 91-71

+10.5

ORST

L 73-76

+3.5

CHST

W 67-63

−5.5

HPU

L 80-90

+0.5

USI

W 84-73

−0.5

RMU

L 74-88

−15.5

UAPB

L 62-63

−17.5

YALE

L 66-80

−1.5

BEL

L 84-87

+9.5

UNI

L 54-60

−0.5

CLT

L 76-88

−10.5

MUR

L 77-81

+1.5

VAL

L 59-66

−4.5

SIU

W 70-57

+14.5

ILST

W 63-59

+14.5

UNI

W 69-61

+14.5

DRKE

W 74-67

+1.5

EVAN

W 76-49

+18.5

BRAD

W 85-70

+22.5

INST

W 76-74

−3.5

SIU

W 68-66

+5.5

MUR

L 74-81

−0.5

BEL

L 62-68

−4.5

DRKE

W 80-70

+8.5

ILST

W 83-56

+28.5

EVAN

W 84-46

+29.5

VAL

L 67-71

−11.5

BRAD

W 93-86

+5.5

INST

L 63-79

−19.5

MUR

W 92-79

+11.5

DRKE

W 72-51

+16.5

UNI

L 69-84

−12.5

CAL

L 73-91

−11.5

covered 18didn’t cover 15avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DETM

W 91-71

+19.5

ORST

L 73-76

+2.5

CHST

W 67-63

−26.5

HPU

L 80-90

+11.5

USI

W 84-73

+3.5

RMU

L 74-88

+10.5

UAPB

L 62-63

−38.5

YALE

L 66-80

−2.5

BEL

L 84-87

+16.5

UNI

L 54-60

−19.5

CLT

L 76-88

+26.5

MUR

L 77-81

−1.5

VAL

L 59-66

−19.5

SIU

W 70-57

−19.5

ILST

W 63-59

−19.5

UNI

W 69-61

+1.5

DRKE

W 74-67

+1.5

EVAN

W 76-49

−14.5

BRAD

W 85-70

+10.5

INST

W 76-74

+2.5

SIU

W 68-66

−8.5

MUR

L 74-81

−2.5

BEL

L 62-68

−21.5

DRKE

W 80-70

+3.5

ILST

W 83-56

−1.5

EVAN

W 84-46

−10.5

VAL

L 67-71

−0.5

BRAD

W 93-86

+37.5

INST

L 63-79

−2.5

MUR

W 92-79

+20.5

DRKE

W 72-51

−21.5

UNI

L 69-84

+27.5

CAL

L 73-91

+13.5

over 16under 17avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UIC has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Greensboro 0, UIC 3, even 2

UNC GreensboroBetterUIC

G B. Stacker TR11.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 47

UICSmall

G B. Gealer TR10.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 79

G C. Grant TR2.2 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 9

UICBig

G A. Johnson11 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 55

F Z. Fitch TR6.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31

UICBig

G A. Thomas TR11.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 69

F V. Collins TR1 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Lowery7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59

F A. Beljan TR2.2 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G R. Washington8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 77

UNC GreensboroBetterUIC

UNCG offense260th of 366 · -8.0

UICBig

UIC defense106th of 366 · -1.0

UNCG defense299th of 366 · -7.7

UICBig

UIC offense117th of 366 · -2.6

Backcourt-2.1 · 2 players

UICBig

Backcourt+2.1 · 5 players

Frontcourt-1.9 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.5 · 3 players

UICSmall

Bench+0.5 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestUNCG betterUIC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UNC Greensboro

Guards

B. Stacker29 min · TRC. Grant11 min · TRC. Bailey6 minR. Greer6 min · TRB. MishakNewJ. ManiNew

Forwards

Z. Fitch23 min · TRV. Collins7 min · TRA. Beljan7 min · TRC. Bynum4 minC. LaFrentzNew

UIC

Guards

B. Gealer30 min · TRA. Johnson29 minA. Thomas28 min · TRM. Lowery26 minR. Washington23 minA. Henderson21 min

Forwards

J. Nathaniel20 minL. Scroggins17 min · TRN. BarrantesNewD. HudsonNewD. ShawNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNCG76.6 #128

UIC73.9 #196

Points per possession

UNCG1.11 #125

UIC1.09 #171

Pace (possessions)

UNCG69.3 #157

UIC68.1 #227

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNCG52.0 #146

UIC49.8 #245

3-point %

UNCG35.6 #80

UIC31.6 #300

3-point attempt rate

UNCG40.2 #165

UIC32.8 #319

Free throw rate

UNCG42.0 #31

UIC36.2 #145

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNCG15.0 #63

UIC17.6 #247

Offensive rebound rate

UNCG28.1 #259

UIC36.3 #22

Assists per game

UNCG12.1 #283

UIC14.1 #143

Defense

Points allowed

UNCG81.9 #341

UIC71.2 #81

Points allowed per possession

UNCG1.18 #347

UIC1.05 #83

Opponent effective FG%

UNCG56.2 #347

UIC50.5 #125

Opponent 3-point %

UNCG38.0 #357

UIC33.4 #147

Turnovers forced

UNCG13.6 #343

UIC19.7 #30

Defensive rebound rate

UNCG71.0 #104

UIC68.0 #255

Steals per game

UNCG5.5 #301

UIC7.6 #70

Blocks per game

UNCG1.9 #350

UIC3.6 #126

UNCG		UIC
Scoring
76.6 #128	Points per game	73.9 #196
1.11 #125	Points per possession	1.09 #171
69.3 #157	Pace (possessions)	68.1 #227
Shooting
52.0 #146	Effective FG%	49.8 #245
35.6 #80	3-point %	31.6 #300
40.2 #165	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #319
42.0 #31	Free throw rate	36.2 #145
Possessions
15.0 #63	Turnover rate	17.6 #247
28.1 #259	Offensive rebound rate	36.3 #22
12.1 #283	Assists per game	14.1 #143
Defense
81.9 #341	Points allowed	71.2 #81
1.18 #347	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #83
56.2 #347	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #125
38.0 #357	Opponent 3-point %	33.4 #147
13.6 #343	Turnovers forced	19.7 #30
71.0 #104	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #255
5.5 #301	Steals per game	7.6 #70
1.9 #350	Blocks per game	3.6 #126

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Greensboro

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Furman75–81
Wvs Wofford75–72
Wvs VMI84–70
L@ Samford78–87
W@ Chattanooga85–80

A week or more of rest.

UIC

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ California73–91
Lvs Northern Iowa69–84
Wvs Drake72–51
Wvs Murray St92–79
L@ Indiana St63–79

A week or more of rest.

UNC Greensboro Spartans at UIC Flames

What could decide it: UIC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UNC Greensboro

UIC

UIC has the better starters

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UNC Greensboro

UIC